Will Poland be able to take away the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline from Russia?


The Polish state-owned company Gaz-System has published a plan for the development of the energy system until 2031. It follows from it that this Eastern European country intends to slightly "move" neighboring Germany as a regional gas hub, and also to do all this at the expense of Russia, in the literal and figurative sense of the word. What are they up to in Warsaw, and why should the Gazprom leadership strain?


Today it is Gazprom that is the main supplier of “blue fuel” to Poland, where its share reaches 68% in the balance sheet. Gas goes through the Yamal-Europe trunk pipeline through points in Ukraine and Belarus and then in transit to Germany, where the final point is located. However, soon everything should change in the most dramatic way, since Warsaw intends to get rid of dependence on Moscow and turn its country into a regional "gas empire". To do this, she needs to take several steps.

First, the Polish leadership gave the go-ahead to start the construction of the Baltic Pipeline, through which up to 2022 billion cubic meters annually should come from Norway starting from 10. Then, from 5 to 7,5 billion cubic meters of gas per year, the capacity of the LNG terminal in Swinoujscie should be expanded. In addition, a floating terminal in Gdansk with a capacity of 4,5 billion cubic meters per year will be launched. Poland is betting on the purchase and subsequent resale of American liquefied natural gas. To enter the Baltic gas market, the GIPL pipeline is being built to Lithuania.

Taken together, these volumes will be sufficient to completely replace the "blue fuel" from Gazprom. Thus, last year the state-owned company PGNiG purchased 9,66 billion cubic meters from Russia. However, these are far from all the expected losses of our "national heritage" in Poland. The prospect of losing the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe trunk pipeline loomed quite realistically before him.

This gas pipeline with a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters passes through Poland further to Germany from east to west. But in the bowels of the Gaz-System company, its own "cunning plan" has matured, how to get this pipe for your needs. Since gas imports are now being reoriented to the northern direction, Warsaw is thinking about connecting this gas pipeline with LNG terminals in Swinoujscie and Gdansk and with the Baltic Pipe. To do this, you just need to build additional entry-exit points and a compressor station. An ingenious management solution: simple and elegant. But there are a couple of important nuances.

First, what about economic interests of Germany, which receives Russian gas in transit through Poland? To this end, the strategists from Gaz-System propose to implement a scheme with the so-called "virtual reverse": Poland will continue to take Russian gas destined for Germany for its needs, and the Germans will provide regasified LNG and Norwegian gas at the same price.

Secondly, it is not entirely clear what the Poles thought about the interests of Gazprom, which owns 48% of shares in EuRoPol GAZ, which owns the gas pipeline. The rest of the shares are owned by the state-owned company PGNiG and its subsidiaries. Will the leadership of the Russian monopolist be delighted with the Napoleonic plans of Warsaw, which refuses to buy from it, and wants to take over the gas transportation infrastructure? In fact, this is the most sensitive and interesting question.

What are the options for how Poland could finally "spin off" from Russia?

Ransom is the most civilized and European, in the best sense of the word, divorce scenario. But the problem is that the acquisition of 48% of the shares will be quite expensive, and the strategic plans of Gaz-System indicate that the Poles would prefer to save money. Otherwise, Warsaw could simply invest in the construction of gas transportation infrastructure from scratch.

Offset is also quite legal and, perhaps, the most realistic option. Recall that there are already precedents when Poland won huge sums in European courts and received them from Gazprom. Last year, the Polish Office for the Protection of Competition and Consumers (UOKiK) fined the Russian state corporation $ 57 million. Warsaw may well offer Moscow to give up shares in EuRoPol GAZ in exchange for writing off the debt. If so, we should expect new legal claims against Gazprom.

Nationalization is the crudest scenario, involving a sharp deterioration in relations between Poland and Russia. It should be noted that a step in this direction has already been taken when it came to the inclusion of Poland in the list of "unfriendly countries". Theoretically, Warsaw can go to the compulsory seizure of property belonging to the Russian state corporation in the event of a high-profile political scandal. Let's say that the “GRU agents Petrov and Boshirov” will again be accused of some kind of sabotage against the Republic of Poland. Further, according to the worked out scheme: the hysteria of the Polish Foreign Ministry, the expulsion of Russian diplomats, the rupture of gas relations with Moscow through the nationalization of its assets, etc.
What scenario would you stake on?
12 comments
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 5 May 2021 14: 33
    +4
    What scenario would you stake on?
    Full gasification of the Russian Federation ...
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 May 2021 14: 41
    -1
    The acquaintances do not have a lot of Gazprom shares.
    So nafig worried, suddenly a Chelyabinsk meteor, etc. fall on a distant pipe
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 5 May 2021 15: 54
    -7
    Will Poland be able to take away the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline from Russia?

    - Ha ... - Yes, Russia is so vulnerable "for everyone and everything" (let alone Gazprom itself as vulnerable); what ... what ... what ... that nothing needs to be "taken away" ... - it will be enough just to "bite" ... - and this will be enough ...
    - And anyone can "bite" Russia today ... - even the Czech Republic, even Bulgaria, even .... - yes even ... any dwarf limiterphic ... - And this poisonous "pog_ane_nk_go" bite is enough; so that Russia would have to "justify" something, "prove" something, "explain" something, "give some arguments" ... - for an eternity ... as always ...
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 5 May 2021 19: 39
    +3
    This gas pipeline with a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters passes through Poland further to Germany from east to west. But in the bowels of the Gaz-System company, its own "cunning plan" has matured, how to get this pipe for your needs. Since gas imports are now being reoriented to a northern direction, Warsaw is thinking about connecting this gas pipeline with LNG terminals in Swinoujscie and Gdansk and with the Baltic Pipe.

    You should at least look at the map before writing. sad Swinoujscie right on the border with Germany. How the gas pipeline can be used in this case is a big mystery. If from Gdansk, then about half of the gas pipeline remains unused.
    Why should they sue the pipe? Gazprom does not have any contracts for transportation with the Poles. Third energy package. If necessary, Gazprom comes to the auction and buys the right to pumping. If Gazprom did not come, then the auction did not take place.
    And how long can you listen to fairy tales about Poles building the Baltic pipe? They still have to negotiate with Gazprom about crossing the Baltic streams.
    Gazprom does not matter at all, even if the Germans were supplied with gas, they crossed the border and goodbye. And what the Poles will transmit there, let them figure it out in a close European family.
    1. bonifacius Offline bonifacius
      bonifacius (Alex) 5 May 2021 23: 42
      0
      They still have to negotiate with Gazprom about crossing the Baltic streams

      Kind! Everything has been agreed for a long time, all papers have been signed and permits have been received! Wake up.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 6 May 2021 07: 02
        +2
        Kind! Everything has been agreed for a long time, all papers have been signed and permits have been received! Wake up.

        Did the Poles tell you that? smile Okstyte laughing
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 May 2021 22: 03
    +1
    The price of gas with delivery on Thursday at the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose to $ 307 per thousand cubic meters, which is the highest value since January 13 (then the European price soared to $ 335 following the boom in quotations in Asia). But the renewal of this peak no longer seems unattainable.

    Since the beginning of the year, the average price of a day-ahead contract for TTF was $ 240 per thousand cubic meters. The Gazprom budget for 2021 provides for the average price of gas exports to non-CIS countries at $ 170 per thousand cubic meters. More than 80% of Gazprom's sales to Europe are now based on spot indices of various time bases.

    Gazprom has no contract for the supply to Poland. Gazprom has no contract for gas transit through Poland. Now the Poles buy gas in Europe for 300 bucks, and if they did not sue GazProm they would buy it for 170. The Germans are much smarter. But this is not news.
  6. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 May 2021 06: 34
    -1
    Quote: Bakht
    Gazprom has no contract for the supply to Poland. Gazprom does not have an agreement for gas transit through Poland.

    I wonder how this contradicts what is written in the article?
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 May 2021 17: 21
      +1
      Doesn't contradict in any way. It's just information.
      A pipeline without Russian gas is an unprofitable asset. Just like the Ukrainian gas transportation system after 2024.
      According to the article. How can property be taken away in the West, where ownership is a sacred cow? Very simple. I wanted it and took it away. An example is the property of Russia in the United States. They wanted it and took it away.
      As the saying goes, "if you can't, but you really want to, then you can."
  7. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 8 May 2021 12: 45
    +4
    After the completion of the SP-2, Poland can sell this rusty pipe to the Romanian Gypsies, for scrap, and go to collect dung together with its Bandera slaves.
    1. Wolter Offline Wolter
      Wolter (Wolter) 10 May 2021 11: 11
      -4
      Finish first. So far, everything is worth it.)))
  8. Wolter Offline Wolter
    Wolter (Wolter) 10 May 2021 11: 10
    -4
    Why can't it? And it will take away. Ukraine has taken away its part.