Russia must prevent war in Central Asia


On April 29, 2021, the so-called "one-day war" took place between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. There were no officially winners or losers in it, and the parties began to withdraw their troops from the place of the border conflict. Bishkek and Dushanbe agreed to hold talks on the delimitation and demarcation of their state borders. Does this mean that everyone has come to their senses, the conflict has been settled and a big trouble has been avoided?


Unfortunately, that would be too optimistic and premature to say so. The situation in Central Asia is gradually heating up and becoming more and more explosive. This is influenced by a whole range of factors:

At first, the problem of water scarcity in this traditionally arid region is becoming more and more acute. For example, last year, due to a delay in the melting of mountain glaciers, the rivers and lakes of Central Asia became shallow. The situation was aggravated by the behavior of some neighboring countries located upstream of transboundary rivers. The issue of joint use of water resources has become a formal reason for the conflict between Dushanbe and Bishkek. The director of the water department of Kyrgyzstan explained how the water division should be carried out:

37 percent of the water coming from the Ak-Suu River is used by Kyrgyzstan. It irrigates 11 thousand hectares of land. And 55 percent of the water from the Ak-Suu river is received by Tajikistan - for irrigation of 21 hectares, 300 percent - Uzbekistan for 8 thousand 1 hectares. As you know, the Tortkul reservoir is also replenished from this river.

Secondly, the problem of drought, which was centrally dealt with during the Soviet period, was compounded after the collapse of the USSR. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have about seventy disputed areas on the border, but the most dangerous from the point of view of a potential armed conflict are water intake points. An attempt by one of the parties to install video cameras for control at the "Golovnoy" checkpoint was the spark after which hostilities began. Both Dushanbe and Bishkek claim scarce water resources, citing old maps and documents.

ThirdlyDespite the fact that formally only two countries are involved in the conflict, two informal blocs can be indirectly involved in it at once. Iran and Afghanistan will stand behind Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkey will stand behind Kyrgyzstan. (Again this Turkey). This can put Russia in an extremely difficult position, since both former Soviet republics are our allies in the CSTO, Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, and Moscow just recently signed an agreement with Tajikistan on the creation of a unified air defense system.

Fourthly, the problem is further complicated by the fact that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are transit countries for drug trafficking going from neighboring Afghanistan to Russia and further to Europe. The volumes of heroin supplied through their territories are simply colossal, Afghan "farmers" are the world leaders in the cultivation of opiates on their poppy plantations. The fight against drug trafficking is being actively pursued, but one should be aware that such a scale is simply impossible without organized criminal groups having a so-called “roof” in government and law enforcement structures. As a result, it turns out that the influential international heroin mafia benefits from the presence of a "leaky" state border in all transit countries and categorically does not need the appearance of any Russian military from among the peacekeepers.

FifthlyThere is another risk factor on the Afghan side. Currently, the United States has begun the process of withdrawing its troops from there, after which various PMCs will take their place. But this will not be an obstacle for the Taliban and the terrorist group ISIS, banned in the Russian Federation, to grapple with each other in the clearing that has become vacant. Strengthening the latter may entail the further export of radical Islamism to Central Asia, about which we in detail told earlier.

Thus, there is a very complex tangle of geopolitical problems that simply cannot be cut at one stroke. The desire to resolve the issue of delimitation and demarcation in a peaceful way is very good, but Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan see it differently. If Moscow takes sides, it will automatically offend the other, its CSTO ally. Other regional players, neighboring Uzbekistan or ambitious Turkey with its Party-Turkist project will undoubtedly try to take advantage of this. Dushanbe and Bishkek will not agree to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers either, at least until the detachments of radical Islamists under black banners rush to them from Afghanistan. What is left?

It is obvious that it is necessary to try to solve the root of the problem, which is the lack of water resources. This can be done through mass adoption. of technologies collection and storage of rainwater in both urban and mountainous conditions. It is worth trying more actively to grow modern drought-resistant agricultural crops in the Central Asian region. It is necessary by diplomatic methods to resolve the issue of the amount of permissible water withdrawal between all countries through which transboundary rivers pass. You should also strive for the final delimitation and demarcation of state borders between the former Soviet republics through peaceful negotiations, up to the exchange of some territories.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 4 May 2021 14: 47
    +5
    Again, someone owes something. smile Should Russia introduce drip irrigation and new varieties that require less water? Oh, those allys sad
    The external border must be taken under control, otherwise the drug traffic will not be blocked, but the local authorities are not interested in this, they probably feed on it.

    the problem of drought, which was centrally addressed during the Soviet period, was compounded after the collapse of the USSR

    As a result of the centralized solution of the drought problem, the Aral Sea disappeared, but that is ...
  2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 4 May 2021 15: 32
    0
    Hello Sergey and Dmitry!
    As always from life, but this time it is not at all funny. 90s, a partner with a colleague from Tajikistan. Russian, was not a weak leader in Bashkiria.
    He told me: on Pyanj our border posts, an aksakal comes to the chief. After the traditional oriental greetings, he says: I have $ 10 with me.
    Proposal, tomorrow night you remove your guys from such and such posts. Alternatively, I put snipers on a hill and we kill 10 of your soldiers ...
  3. Xuli (o) Tebenado 4 May 2021 17: 45
    +2
    Russia must prevent war in Central Asia

    Unhappy Russia! She always owes someone: ((

    As a result of the well-known events, South Ossetia and Abkhazia were recognized. They are now sitting there and waiting for Russia to annex them, following the example of the Crimea.

    Because of the eternal enmity, the lesser brothers from Azerbaijan and Armenia are gnawing: recently the first ones were hit hard on unshaven pads. Russia should calm them down, separate them, and peacekeep them, losing its soldiers.

    Now other smaller brothers - Kyrgyz and Tajiks - have grappled over water and land. And again Russia must take them apart: ((

    There used to be options:
    1) Make them all Russian and from time to time kick the troublemakers of order and tranquility.
    2) Make them all Soviet and act in the same vein.
    The Empire and the Indestructible Union have gone into History, and now I don't even know who Russia should be - either a firefighter with a powerful water cannon, or a policeman with a rubber stick, perhaps both at the same time.

    And against the background of these small-scale wars, Russia is experiencing a real invasion of all of the above - the ethnic composition of the population is changing, the decline of Russians is compensated by the Caucasus and migrants who receive Russian citizenship, the Russian population in many cases suffers from unemployment, drunkenness, poverty ... turns into Maskvabad and the capital of the Maskvabad ulus. The local population gradually turns from blond and fair-haired to narrow-eyed and bluish-black ...
    Here is our picture: (((
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 4 May 2021 19: 46
      -1
      As a result of the well-known events, South Ossetia and Abkhazia were recognized. They are now sitting there and waiting for Russia to annex them, following the example of the Crimea.

      They do not want and do not wait. repeat
      You have beguiled something ..
      1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 4 May 2021 20: 06
        0
        How many people, so many opinions

        Pzhsta, you don't need to choke me with your "red revolutionary 6s", otherwise they stink too much, and I will die in terrible mu4s :)).
        1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
          Ulysses (Alexey) 4 May 2021 20: 08
          0
          What do I care about your torment?
          Be patient, you yourself have subscribed to the site.
          1. isofat Offline isofat
            isofat (isofat) 4 May 2021 21: 59
            -1
            Ulysses, and what will you do when this gentleman accuses that you raped him and filed for alimony? wink
            1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
              Ulysses (Alexey) 4 May 2021 22: 06
              0
              Ulysses, what will you do when this gentleman accuses that you raped him and filed for alimony? wink

              Give me a problem.
              Dead donkeys in Kaliningrad do not roll around on every street.
              Yes, and I'm not a fan of cutting ears .. request

              And then I still need to send it, but I don't know where ... smile
          2. Xuli (o) Tebenado 4 May 2021 22: 14
            0
            Be patient, you yourself have subscribed to the site.

            Not. I haven't signed up anywhere. I come here sometimes.
            1. isofat Offline isofat
              isofat (isofat) 4 May 2021 22: 23
              -1
              Xuli (o) Tebenado... And why is your fantasy?
            2. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
              Ulysses (Alexey) 4 May 2021 22: 54
              0
              Not. I haven't signed up anywhere. I come here sometimes, like children in a zoo.

              Don't touch children with your twilight mind.

              You, uncle, yourself signed, filling out the entry agreement, nickname Julio also made you accept not bloody hell.

              Why this kindergarten?
        2. isofat Offline isofat
          isofat (isofat) 4 May 2021 22: 00
          0
          Xuli (o) Tebenado, relax and have fun. laughing
          1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 4 May 2021 22: 10
            +1
            I'm not surprised that you and your mind are here serving as the head of the cleaning sub-department ...
  4. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 4 May 2021 19: 43
    0
    It is obvious that it is necessary to try to solve the root of the problem, which is the scarcity of water resources. This can be done through the massive introduction of rainwater collection and storage technologies both in urban and mountainous conditions. It is worth trying more actively to grow modern drought-resistant agricultural crops in the Central Asian region. It is necessary by diplomatic methods to resolve the issue of the amount of permissible water withdrawal between all countries through which transboundary rivers pass. You should also strive for the final delimitation and demarcation of state borders between the former Soviet republics through peaceful negotiations, up to the exchange of some territories.

    The author can clearly explain how Russia is related to these undoubtedly useful wishes ??

    The republics of the former USSR have long gone free, and these are theirs, sovereign problems.

    Russia can and is capable of preventing unwanted bloodshed processes on its borders.

    Everything else is without us .. repeat
  5. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 4 May 2021 20: 06
    -3
    Russia must prevent war in Central Asia

    - Yes, it is unlikely that it will now be possible to prevent it ... - it has already begun ... - And everything will continue to smolder ... and periodically flare up ...
    - These are all the consequences of the erroneous and absolutely incorrect post-war (WWII) Stalinist policy ... - Yes, it was Stalin's (I did not make a reservation) ... - Personally, I already wrote (and in great detail) here that after the end of the Second World War it was necessary immediately disband all national republics and create ... - districts, volosts, counties, territorial formations based on regional formations, regions, etc. and so on ... - Where the administrations of these new territorial formations would include people of Russian nationality and local national cadres ... - Then there was a very favorable period for this ... - front-line soldiers returned from the war, seasoned in battles and, if there were some small excesses on national grounds ... - then all this could be very easily foreseen and prevented ... - But the USSR did not do it then ... - so sooner or later these "troubles" began on the national soil (even under the Soviet Union began) ... - Well, and what it resulted in today ... - everyone knows ...
    - If the Americans leave Afghanistan, then the situation in Central Asia will worsen even more ... - Perhaps the Americans will leave for this to happen ... - So Russia will now have to clean up all this ... and be prepared for a huge influx of Asians - refugees ... - Yes, it will be a complete nightmare ... - Already today the necessary measures on the part of Russia ... - urgently impose restrictions on the acceptance of all this mass of refugees ... - Then it will simply be too late ...
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 4 May 2021 22: 57
      +2
      ... - Personally, I have already written (and in great detail) here that after the end of the Second World War it was necessary to immediately disband all national republics and create ... - districts, volosts, counties

      After the war, the brilliant leader and teacher was already too old for such perturbations.
      The hot war gradually turned into a cold war, it was necessary to resist external enemies. And then the internal enemies (the Leningrad case, Jewish cosmopolitan doctors) raised their heads, it was necessary to crush everyone in a row, which he was and was busy with in the last years of his life.
      The national question was one of the main reasons for the collapse of the USSR, but far from the only one. And there, in general, no one would have been able to do anything to prevent the collapse of the Union.
      The Chinese looked at all this agony and made the right conclusions - under red banners and with portraits of leaders, they gradually returned to the "main road of human development." They began to change the basis (foundation), but left the ideological roof (superstructure). And Gorbachev began repairing the socialist USSR from the roof (ideology), after which the whole house, shaken by various other contradictions, collapsed with a terrible roar. The Chinese are a very rational people: measure seven times, cut once. After the death of Mao, they very carefully began to build a new country.
      And in the USSR, a very ambitious and completely incompetent driver climbed to the very top and began to chatter about reforms that he had no idea about. Then he was joined by his partaigenosse, who dreamed of becoming the king of all Russia and not only. Their struggle for power, combined with all the contradictions and development problems, led to August-December 1991.
  6. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 May 2021 07: 02
    0
    Quote: Ulysses
    The author can clearly explain how Russia is related to these undoubtedly useful wishes ??

    The republics of the former USSR have long gone free, and these are theirs, sovereign problems.

    Russia can and is capable of preventing unwanted bloodshed processes on its borders.

    How can you combine absolutely contradictory theses in one commentary? fool
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 5 May 2021 09: 31
      +2
      How can you combine absolutely contradictory theses in one commentary?

      In the last thesis, the key words are "... at its borders."
      For example, in the Donbass. Or in Ossetia, Abkhazia.

      And all Uzbek-Tajik-Moldovans can be free.
      Personally, I understand the idea of ​​comradeccbut with him twilight mind.
  7. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 May 2021 07: 05
    0
    Quote: Xuli (o) Tebenado
    Unhappy Russia! She always owes someone: ((

    As a result of the well-known events, South Ossetia and Abkhazia were recognized. They are now sitting there and waiting for Russia to annex them, following the example of the Crimea.

    Because of the eternal enmity, the lesser brothers from Azerbaijan and Armenia are gnawing: recently the first ones were hit hard on unshaven pads. Russia should calm them down, separate them, and peacekeep them, losing its soldiers.

    Now other smaller brothers - Kyrgyz and Tajiks - have grappled over water and land. And again Russia must take them apart: ((

    Well, you can pretend that everything is under control and sit in a "house" like one well-known geopolitician.
    Only then our soldiers will be slaughtered in Central Asia by militants of radical Islamists, and, well, our youth will continue to die from drugs.
    So you don't have to pull it apart. After all, no one in the Kremlin is even considering options for the Russification and sanctification of the former Soviet republics. Therefore, you will have to disentangle the consequences.
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 5 May 2021 09: 43
      +2
      Did the USSR (Russia) once take great care of their soldiers?
      They were slaughtered in Afghanistan, Chechnya and dozens of other places.
      Were you personally very worried about this then? - I doubt.

      And the youth from drugs both died, and will die, unfortunately. If you close tightly Afghan, that is, Colombia and so on. If (hypothetically) we cork up Colombia, which is unrealistic, then "our youth" will sniff glue, cook boot cream, and so on. Here, according to the saying "A pig will find dirt everywhere" (I do not refer this saying to all young people).
  8. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 5 May 2021 12: 43
    -2
    Russia has not owed anything to anyone for 30 years already - you have beguiled something hard, but you can, and even need to, but not now and later !!!
  9. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 5 May 2021 12: 50
    -2
    Quote: Xuli (o) Tebenado
    The pig will find dirt everywhere

    - But if for spreading the death penalty is introduced with complete confiscation from all relatives, and for using hard labor, then the pig smells a dozen times before looking!
    1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 5 May 2021 15: 12
      +2
      1) The death penalty, confiscation, hard labor - these are all the fantasies of the sofa button-dog. SHCHAZ nobody will let you arrange 1937-38 in the USSR. The "prerequisites" are not ripe. And they are unlikely to mature already.

      2)
      ... then the pig smells a dozen times ...

      Dictionary of modern vocabulary, jargon and slang

      To smell
      Interpretation Translation
      itching under the influence of opium drugs. Jargon of addicts

      https://argo.academic.ru/6020/чухаться

      3) So say that you will not find dirt? Yes, easy! Without leaving the place!
      And then he rubs here for the lohs - hard labor, confiscation :))
      1. AICO Offline AICO
        AICO (Vyacheslav) 5 May 2021 16: 16
        0
        I don’t pass those who are sniffing with you - you are poking here! This time. And two - chukhatsya - the whole south of Russia speaks of farms and villages, and then argo, academicians - there are a lot of bespectacled hunks! It's two! And on the third - in my life I have never used and I am not going to be 52, just tried marijuana at 88, in the army in the far far south - so even a jamb to beer as to a star !!! As for the prerequisites, they will ripen - it will be too late. I saw the first item in the dictionary and pulled the owl onto the globe - a smart guy, everyone else is just what to scratch, waste time!
        1. Xuli (o) Tebenado 5 May 2021 21: 39
          +1
          I don’t pass those who are sniffing with you - you are poking here! This time.

          You won't even be allowed to graze these. At least they give meat and therefore cost money.
          Your surname is "free".
          1. AICO Offline AICO
            AICO (Vyacheslav) 6 May 2021 01: 38
            0
            You, you are confusing in one appeal, of course - spring, clinic, exacerbation !!!