Conflict in Donbass postponed until China starts war over Taiwan


The current situation in Donbass resembles a game of poker. Russian President Vladimir Putin has concentrated troops near the Ukrainian border and made it clear that if Kiev attacks the LPR and DPR, this could have very unpleasant consequences for Ukraine. Anatoly Karlin, an “intelligence researcher,” a Russian publicist, repatriate and supporter of “Tropical Hyperborea,” writes about this in his blog in the American Internet edition of The Unz Review.


According to the author, if necessary, Moscow can come to the aid of the LPR and DPR and discard the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, this may lead to the termination of the implementation of the Nord Stream-2 gas transmission project and the strengthening of Western sanctions.

She (RF - ed.) Could deploy to the full, with an offensive through Kharkov and Crimea, organizing a boiler for Ukrainian formations in the Donbass, from Crimea to Odessa and from Sumy to Kiev. Or it could give in and let the Ukrainians conquer Donbass. This would undermine credibility in Russia and subsequently shift the focus to Crimea and provoke domestic nationalist opposition to Putin. This would be the best scenario for Ukraine and the West, but unlikely - and Ukrainians probably understand this.

- he argues.

The author believes that the perfect development of events for Moscow is the completion of the SP-2, after which Kiev would have to make a choice "between cannons and oil." Despite the fact that the United States managed to upset Moscow's relations with a large group of Eastern European countries, the Russian Federation “doesn't really need good relations with them,” and the Ukrainian leadership still has little room for maneuver and “no good options”.

RF has a powerful the economy с technological clusters, and Ukraine has nothing of the kind. In the next 3-4 years, Kiev will have at its disposal the required number of Turkish drones Bayraktar TB2, but Moscow will acquire a sufficient number of its own UAVs. During this time, Beijing will further strengthen its military power. The armies of China and the United States will become comparable. After that, the Taiwan problem will be close to resolution in the eyes of the PRC leadership.

The publicist thinks that the conflict in Donbass has simply been postponed until the SP-2 is put into operation and the PRC has the opportunity to start a war for Taiwan. At the same time, he recalled that Washington has clearly positioned itself as an enemy of Moscow since the end of the Cold War. Therefore, the US pressure on the Russian Federation will continue.
  • Used photos: http://kremlin.ru/
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9 comments
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 27 2021 20: 41
    +1
    publicist, repatriate and supporter of "Tropical Hyperborea" will not say bad things ... fellow
    1. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF April 28 2021 04: 50
      0
      The publicist thinks that the conflict in Donbass is simply postponed
      ...
      Therefore, the US pressure on the Russian Federation will continue.

      I could have concretized who is the real instigator and aggressor, though then they probably would not have been published in the "freedom-loving" media ...
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 27 2021 20: 59
    -4
    Ukraine again did not appear at the war promised by the media.
    Now everyone is looking for excuses and explanations. even at the "repatriate" in the US
    1. silver169 Offline silver169
      silver169 (Aristarkh Feliksovich) April 28 2021 00: 34
      +3
      Are you worried about your beloved Nenka?
    2. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF April 28 2021 04: 32
      +4
      Ukraine again did not appear at the war promised by the media.

      Yes, but the drone kid killed him.
      By American standards, this, of course, is not a war, but the systematic destruction of peaceful terrorists at funerals and weddings, but not for us. So what about "again did not appear" - by. If you want to be polite - be, and for this you don't need to mislead ...
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 28 2021 09: 27
        -1
        Death is always bad.

        If you want to be polite - be and for this you do not need to misinterpret

        - just for you .. since the comment is not even about Hohland in fact ..
      2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) April 28 2021 11: 03
        0
        Reproach pounds like a hammer in my ears,
        And everything is nauseous, and my head is spinning,
        And the boys are bloody in their eyes ...
        And glad to run, but nowhere ... awful!
        Yes, pitiful is he who has an unclean conscience.

        A.S. Pushkin. "Boris Godunov"
  3. TermNachTer Offline TermNachTer
    TermNachTer (Nikolai) April 28 2021 21: 42
    +1
    China's capabilities are more than enough to capture Taiwan. But the Chinese are smart, why fight if you can get it peacefully? If 20-30 years ago the issue of joining mainland China was not considered at all as absolutely unacceptable, now a significant part of Taiwan's residents are quite calm. It will take another 30 years and the island will be annexed to the continent by some kind of referendum, like Hong Kong.
  4. al2145133 Offline al2145133
    al2145133 (Alexey Gribalev) 13 May 2021 18: 55
    0
    There will be no war for Taiwan. When the yellow polite men land and organize their own referendum, the Taiwanese punishers will scatter, like the ukroin rats.