How Russia will play on the deterioration of US-Turkish relations


The day before, President Joe Biden took an important step towards his strategic NATO ally, Turkey. At the level of the White House, the United States finally recognized the fact of the genocide of the Armenian people by the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the last century. The move is strong and, to put it mildly, unfriendly. How will relations between Washington and Ankara change now, and will the Kremlin now be able to win over the disgraced "Sultan" Erdogan to its side?


The historical truth, inconvenient for Turkey, is that since 1915, almost half of the 2,5 million Armenian population has been destroyed on its territory. Deportations, concentration camps, pogroms and just massacres - all this happened. Orthodox Greeks-Pontians and Christians-Assyrians also suffered from Turkish repression. By the way, speaking of historical responsibility, it is worth mentioning that all this happened in front of the British and French, and for some reason the enlightened Europeans did not try to prevent or stop the massacre. The fact of genocide is officially recognized by three dozen countries, including Russia, as well as by almost all American states, but not at the federal level. Turkey's position is that there was no genocide, and the scale of the repression was greatly exaggerated. For Ankara, this is an extremely painful topic, since in the future it may face the question of paying compensation to the millions of descendants of victims, as well as restitution of property. So why did the most "democratic" President Joe Biden aggravate relations with his most important ally in the North Atlantic Alliance?

Apparently, Washington wanted to kill several birds with one stone.

At first, "Globalists" in the person of the Democratic Party are beginning to actively revise the "legacy of Trump." During the 4-year rule of the Republican President, the United States carried out policies isolationism, focusing on solving internal problems. For some reason, many considered it America's weakness and tried to take advantage of the opening window of opportunity. President Erdogan has been the most successful at this. Under him, Turkey actually cut off part of its northern territories from Syria and came to Libya, where the Government of National Accord Faiz Saraj made great concessions on the issue of revising the boundaries of the continental shelf in exchange for military support for Tripoli. Turkish warships "chase" Greek ships in the Eastern Mediterranean and are openly insolent to the French allies in the NATO bloc. Ankara also helped Baku to resolve the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh by military force, receiving in return a land corridor to the Caspian Sea and access to Central Asia.

With all this, the Azerbaijanis and Turks did without the advice and help of the Americans, which, apparently, was the last straw. The fact is that "Sultan" Erdogan is promoting his own integration project of Great Turan with the united army of the Turkic-speaking countries. Taken together, this could become a kind of "logistic superpower" standing on the Middle Corridor of the "New Silk Road", along which transit cargo flows will go from China to Europe. On the basis of this economic union of the Central Asian countries, led by Turkey, in the future, a kind of regional semblance of NATO may be formed. Needless to say that such independent infrastructure projects for cooperation with China, which are being promoted bypassing the United States, are completely unnecessary for Washington? Recognizing the fact of the Armenian genocide, the White House issued a warning to Turkey, which is playing for independence, and its potential partners.

Secondly, this step can be fully regarded as a "black mark" for President Erdogan personally. Too much "sultan" became independent, trying to create a new macro-regional militaryeconomic unification without the knowledge of Washington. Recall that the main political opponent of the Turkish president, preacher Gulen, who is considered the organizer and inspirer of the failed coup attempt a few years ago, is hiding in the United States. Having officially recognized the fact of the Armenian genocide during the reign of Recep Erdogan, the White House makes it clear to the Turkish elites that there is a certain cause-and-effect relationship. And this may only be the beginning.

Thirdly, with the same single shot, Washington hit Russia, or rather, its interests in the Transcaucasus. At present, relations between Yerevan and Moscow are not in the best condition after the military defeat of Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Kremlin, under a plausible pretext, avoided direct assistance to its ally in the CSTO, which led to the inevitable defeat of the unrecognized republic against the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey. The long-term consequences of this event have yet to be grasped, but the United States acted ahead of the curve, effectively taking the side of the losing Armenia. The disgraced Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has a pronounced pro-Western position, will now be able to use the recognition of the Armenian genocide to his advantage in the ongoing political struggle for power.

Now the question must be asked whether Russia will be able to benefit from the deterioration of US-Turkish relations. For example, wait for the withdrawal of the US Air Force from Incirlik airbase, or even for Turkey to leave NATO? The Turkish Foreign Ministry commented on Joe Biden's decision as follows:

This statement by the United States, which distorts historical facts, will never be accepted by the Turkish people and will open a deep wound that will damage our mutual trust and friendship.

The answer is rather negative. Ankara is too dependent on the United States and the collective West, in general, in terms of economic, technological and military cooperation. The Turks cannot even make their own "national tank" on their own, and their vaunted "Bayraktars" are assembled from imported components. The Turkish elite is predominantly secular and trained in the West, with which it is closely associated. The severing of relations with the United States and its allies and the expulsion of the American military will have extremely serious consequences for Ankara.

In fact, what are the alternatives? Integration of Turkey with the Eurasian Economic Union or with China? This sounds good only in words, but in reality it will result in tough sectoral sanctions and restriction of Turkish companies' access to Western markets. Lyra has already sagged, and restrictive measures will lead to the fact that she will finally "break through the bottom" with all the ensuing consequences in the form of socio-economic tension in society. But these are not all the problems that will loom then on the horizon. For example, the United States can step up support for the Kurds not only at the borders, but also in Turkey itself, which will call into question its territorial integrity.

In general, it is not Senka's hat to compete with President Erdogan with Washington. "Sultan" is daring, but small.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) April 26 2021 13: 58
    0
    The disgraced Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has a pronounced pro-Western stance,

    So it seems that Nichol resigned, he is going to the polls.

    but in reality it will result in tough sectoral sanctions and restriction of Turkish companies' access to Western markets. Lyra has already sagged

    And living in a raskoryachka, as Ukraine tried to do before, will not work. With a big nix, you need to choose - Western markets or the markets of the CIS and China ...
  2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 26 2021 14: 29
    -1
    The respected author does not like Turkey, oh he does not like ... request
  3. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 26 2021 14: 34
    -2
    Does the US decide to exclude the second largest army from NATO? doubtful. for Karabakh, the Americans threatened the Turks with sanctions, and where are they? Biden threw a bone to the Armenian diaspora who voted for the Democrats. The Armenians themselves do not care about Armenia, not a single one volunteered. There will be no real consequences. Erdogan was pricked, the Armenians are jumping with happiness. Biden called Putin a murderer. Ukrainians have already ejaculated from happiness, so what? Nothing...
  4. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 26 2021 15: 22
    -2
    Russia and Turkey in 2017 signed a contract for the supply of S-400 complexes by Moscow to Ankara. Turkey was the first NATO country to acquire these systems from the Russian Federation. Ankara's decision provoked a sharply negative reaction from Washington and the alliance as a whole. The United States does not stop trying to get Turkey to abandon Russian air defense systems. Erdogan said that Ankara does not intend to abandon the S-400, despite pressure from Washington. He also rejected threats of sanctions and suggested that the US try to impose them in reality.

    The United States retaliated by excluding Turkey from its F-35 aircraft production program. "Our position has not changed. The S-400s are incompatible with the F-35s and Turkey's participation in the (production) program has been discontinued. We continue to move forward with the process of formally excluding Turkey from the F-35 partnership, as announced in July 2019." - said a spokesman for the Pentagon.

    Earlier, Turkey committed itself to buy 100 F-35 aircraft. She has also been involved in the production of over 1000 components for them. As the Minister of Industry and Technology of the Republic Mustafa Varank told RIA Novosti earlier, Turkey continues to produce these components, despite the fact that the United States excluded it from this project.

    This is why Biden negotiated with Erdogan the day before the "genocide" was announced. That is why I uttered this word - and no matter how celebrated in Armenia, the euphoria from Biden's words will pass in a couple of days, and when it passes, an epiphany will come: the reality is that Armenia is not interesting as an independent player in international politics to literally any of the world's centers of power ...

    Armenia and Armenians were banally used - as they have done it many times: as French President Macron did it to put pressure on Turkey, as the Greek authorities do - this list can be continued for a long time. Armenia is not an independent unit - it is just a pawn country in other people's chess games. And Joe Biden is far from the first who used the Armenians for his own purposes.

    And obviously not the last one.
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 26 2021 15: 37
    -2
    since 1915, almost half of the 2,5 million Armenian population has been destroyed on its territory. Deportations, concentration camps, pogroms and just massacres - all this happened.

    By the way, speaking of historical responsibility, it is worth mentioning that all this happened in front of the British and French, and for some reason the enlightened Europeans did not try to prevent or stop the massacre.

    Just a tip. Don't repeat myths and learn history.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 26 2021 15: 50
      -2
      Note that earlier Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that there was no genocide against Armenians in the history of Turkey, and the events of 1915 need investigation.

      Turkey urged Armenia to open the archives of 1915 and create a joint commission to investigate the events. However, Armenia has not yet responded to Turkey's proposal.
      "The term 'genocide' itself is not legitimately used in relation to the events of those years, since the term 'genocide' was first coined in 1943 by a Polish lawyer of Jewish origin Rafael Lemkin, and it received international legal status after World War II in December 1948 . Entitled
      'Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide' as a concept defining the gravest crime against humanity.

      Therefore, from a legal and logical point of view, the use of this term is considered illegal in relation to the events before 1948. "
  6. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2021 13: 01
    0
    Quote: Bakht
    Just a tip. Don't repeat myths and learn history.

    I can do without your advice and the Azerbaijani-Turkish version of history hi
  7. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2021 13: 04
    +2
    Quote: Petr Vladimirovich
    The respected author does not like Turkey, oh he does not like ... request

    Why is that? Beautiful beaches and sea, delicious fruits.
    But why should I love Turkish foreign policy against my country?