Field camp near Voronezh as a guarantee of non-aggression against Donbass

The day before, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the military exercises, for which our troops were drawn to the western border, have been successfully completed, and therefore they can return to their places of permanent deployment. What was that, bluff? If so, from whose side: Kiev, which threatened to resolve the problem of the DPR and LPR by force, or the Kremlin, which promised to protect them by military means, right up to the invasion? Who beat whom, and should we expect a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war at all?

Let us remind you that the aggravation in Donbass began several months ago, and its intensity was constantly growing. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were actively pulling towards the contact line, where two shock fists were formed, aimed at Donetsk and Lugansk. The alignment of forces is such that the local militia would definitely not have been able to withstand the large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian army. But why did Kiev need the beginning of real hostilities?

Probably, President Zelensky wanted to achieve a solution to several problems at once. First, any advance with the seizure of a part of the territory of the DPR and LPR according to the “Karabakh scenario” would be proclaimed a “great change” and his personal triumph. This would definitely add points in the eyes of the hurray-patriotic public of Nezalezhnaya Vladimir Alexandrovich. Secondly, the young and ambitious head of state was clearly burdened by the fact that the curators of the "Maidan project" in the person of the US Democratic Party defiantly ignored him.

Now for the second side of the conflict. Since the DPR and LPR on their own would not have stood against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Moscow, as a guarantor of the security of the unrecognized republics, began demonstratively transferring its troops to the Ukrainian border. According to various estimates, several shock fists with a total strength of 110 to 150 thousand people were concentrated there. Echelons with armored vehicles from Central Russia were going, ships of the Baltic Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla began to move to the waters of the Black and Azov Seas. Potential directions for strikes by the RF Armed Forces from the east, north-east and south of Ukraine emerged as a response to the aggression of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Donbass.

But why does the Kremlin need all this? The question is extremely controversial, since Russia in any case would be "extreme".

On the one handUnfortunately, war is the only real way to solve the problem with Ukraine as a hostile state. You can wait until she falls apart or comes to her senses and crawls back on her knees to ask for forgiveness at least until the end of time. It just won't happen. Today and henceforth, Nezalezhnaya is officially AntiRussia, a hostile country in the neighborhood, with an army of 250 people and the ability to commit various provocations. Its population is inclined towards anti-Russian propaganda, the young generation is being brought up right now by real Russophobes. Thus, in 2014, a colossal geopolitical problem was created, which is not being solved in any way and is only aggravated from year to year. War and only war, direct or "hybrid", can cut this knot of contradictions.

On the other hand, the use of force to resolve the problem will have a very high price for both Russia and Ukraine. These are significant human casualties on both sides, and tough Western sanctions, which will undoubtedly be imposed against us. There will be problems with the disloyalty of the local population and possible partisanship, etc. For our country, it is quite possible that a large-scale counteroffensive deep into Ukrainian territory could end in international isolation. Such is the "fork" it turns out.

And, judging by a number of statements by high-ranking Russian officials, the Kremlin is completely unprepared for such a scenario. The maximum is to preserve the status quo, that is, not to allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to defeat the DPR and LPR by military means, for which the Russian Armed Forces were pulled to the western border of Russia. Variants with amphibious assault on Mariupol and Odessa or with a march on Kharkov, apparently, were considered by the General Staff of the Russian Federation, but only as "plan B". Both sides raised the stakes, and everyone was forced to reveal themselves by communication with US President Joe Biden. What is the result of this "standing" of the Ukrainian and Russian armies?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces did not attack, but they didn’t retreat anywhere either, but proceeded to reinforce their entrenchment to defend against a possible counteroffensive by the Russian Armed Forces. Volodymyr Zelenskyy still managed to get in touch with the American president. It is quite possible that now Kiev will be asking NATO to deepen military cooperation with Independent, pointing out the need to confront Moscow.

The head of the Russian Defense Ministry issued an order to withdraw troops from the western border. True, reportedly combat technique Of the 41st Army of the Central Military District, the whole remained in place. At the Pogonovo training ground, she will await the large-scale military exercises Zapad-2021, which are to take place in September this year. In other words, in the event of aggression by the Ukrainian army against the unrecognized republics of Donbass, the Russian army will be able to quickly deploy within a few days. The Kremlin received a short delay, which it will obviously try to use to complete the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline bypassing Nezalezhnaya. According to optimistic forecasts, this may happen before the end of the summer of 2021.

Thus, the war is simply postponed for some time, but, alas, it will not work to evade it endlessly, since the objective reasons leading to it have not been eliminated. The opposing sides will continue to prepare for it more seriously, and therefore it will be even more fierce.
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  1. steelmaker Online steelmaker
    steelmaker April 24 2021 14: 27
    may result in international isolation.

    Don't voluntarily transfer your economy under international control! Then there will be no isolation.

    the war is just postponed for a while,

    I agree. And the further, the more blood will then be shed. I am upset that Russia again voluntarily withdrew its troops, but the shelling did not stop, people were killed and killed, there is no water in Crimea, and no sanctions were lifted. Even the issue of SP-2 did not come up. How can this be? To concentrate so many troops and to finish everything so mediocre. Mediocrity, one word! Even EBN used the seizure of the airport to the fullest for the image of Russia. But Putin? I lost all the advantage!
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) April 24 2021 15: 08
    War and only war can cut this knot of contradictions

    - Mr. Marzhetsky, better write economic reviews, you are more or less able to do this, and leave the topic of war for the fools ...
  3. trampoline instructor (Cotriarch Peril) April 24 2021 16: 12
    the war is simply postponed for some time, but, alas, it will not work to evade it endlessly, since the objective reasons leading to it have not been eliminated.

    And what are these "objective reasons"?
    Is the fact that at the official level Russia considers Donbass a part of Ukraine - is it an objective "reason" or a subjective one?
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 24 2021 16: 52
      Is there a separate gas pipeline between Russia and Donbass? or what will happen to the Crimean channel? and the factories there belong to Ukrainians.
      1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 24 2021 19: 47
        There is a separate gas pipeline between Russia and Donbass - there is)))
  4. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 24 2021 17: 20
    In 2014, Novorossia was not recognized, but Turchinov was recognized, and then Poroshenko.
    What is the reason? And the 2018 FIFA World Cup is appointed! And what will happen if ... it’s even scary to think that progressive humanity does not come in full force.
    Some of them came, had fun with a beer, Mom, don't worry, on Nikolskaya, the downpour could barely cope. What else? Oh yes, five luxurious football stadiums have been built.
    And dilapidated housing, barracks and beams, dirt roads, half of the country without gas, people in the hospital in the corridor after amputations, that's okay, as the French say, passons ...
    Russians burnt alive and finished off with baseball bats in Odessa, Russian militiamen shot in Mariupol, killed under shells and bombs, and now Donetsk residents under the bullets of snipers ...
    1. Vladest Offline Vladest
      Vladest (Vladimir) April 25 2021 22: 10
      Vladimir Vladimirovich resembles the failed emperors of ancient Rome. Games, theater, soldiers and palaces.
      1. isofat Offline isofat
        isofat (isofat) April 25 2021 23: 29
        Vladest... Don't suck up the losers, you've left your emperor. laughing
  5. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) April 25 2021 22: 07
    Supplement to Russia's sanctions expenses for Ukraine.
  6. Solomon Offline Solomon
    Solomon (alexey salomon) April 26 2021 06: 17
    Another "masterpiece" from Marzhetsky
    1. rotkiv04 Online rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) April 26 2021 08: 54
      And in what he is wrong in this case, sooner or later there will be a war with the outskirts, whatever one may say, but the West stubbornly makes Germany model 41 years old.