Why US sanctions never worked against Russia


A few days ago, the United States introduced another package of restrictive measures against Russia, which affected several technology companies, dozens of individuals and legal entities, as well as transactions with sovereign national debt. The Americans have warned us about the latter for a long time, calling these sanctions "hellish". However, upon closer examination, they turned out to be not so scary. Why is the Russian economy, which has been under external pressure since 2014, is still not “torn to shreds”?


The answer to this question will be very ambiguous, and certainly not everyone will like it. But let's talk about everything in order. First of all, let's say a few words about the US ban on operations with Russian federal loan bonds, which the RF Ministry of Finance uses to pay off the national government debt. At first, everyone was a little scared, but they quickly figured out that the restrictions apply only to direct purchases of securities from official Russian financial institutions (the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the National Welfare Fund). American investors can still buy domestic OFZs through intermediaries in the secondary market, paying a commission. And these restrictions come into force only from June 14, 2021. In general, whoever needs it will buy and sell bonds.

Does this give reason to believe that we have got off easy yet? In part, this is true. First of all, certain preventive work by the RF Ministry of Finance in this direction has already been carried out in advance. Last year, there were no loans in dollars, only Eurobonds were placed, and US investors were prohibited from participating in IPOs. Today, the share of the Americans accounts for OFZs for a rather modest amount of 0,8 trillion rubles. Banks with state participation, Sberbank and VTB will be able to compensate for the departure of foreigners. However, it is clearly not worth relaxing. The trend is generally negative, which can lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing due to the departure of foreign investors from the Russian bond market. The ruble has already reacted to newssifting against the dollar.

And now let's move on to the key question, why, over the past 7 years since the beginning of the process of introducing Western sanctions, the Russian economy has not “torn to shreds”, as US President Barack Obama promised us? Perhaps the correct answer would be that in fact the United States does not set itself such a goal. Why is this happening, let's say at the very end, but for now we will try to formulate and voice the real goals of American sanctions:

At firstThe United States is extremely interested in preventing Russia's industrial recovery. Until 2014, accompanied by the cheerful chants of the systemic liberals, we confidently walked the path of gradual de-industrialization. After the Maidan, it turned out that technological Russia's dependence on Ukraine and other potential adversaries in the West is critically important, which forced the authorities to take a long and difficult path of import substitution. And what exactly are the American sanctions aimed at?

For example, they are hitting components for the promising Russian medium-haul airliner MS-21, as well as a number of other aircraft that may in the future compete with the products of American and European aircraft manufacturers. The sanctions are also hitting shipbuilding and oil companies in order to make it difficult, in the absence of technology and equipment, to develop the Arctic. Restrictive measures impede the normal development of enterprises belonging to the state corporations Roscosmos and Rosatom, as well as the military-industrial complex, etc. Western consulting companies know all the ins and outs of the domestic economy, since they freely operate in all ministries and departments, and therefore the United States has the ability to deliver targeted sanctions strikes at the most "bottlenecks."

SecondlyIn recent years, Washington's restrictive measures have begun to bear a clearly personalistic character, being directed against President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle, who owe him their fantastic success in life. Now the goal of the United States is to split the Russian "elite" in order to form an internal opposition to the head of state in its midst. In the future, this could become a precondition for the so-called "palace coup", the purpose of which would be to replace Vladimir Putin, inconvenient for the White House, with his more loyal protégé of the pro-Western liberal wing.

As a matter of fact, these are the real goals of the American sanctions; they are not included in "tearing the economy to shreds". But why? Let's think together. What could be a real disaster for the modern economic model of Russia?

It is true that the ban on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials abroad according to the “Iranian scenario”. If the federal budget is left without foreign exchange earnings from the sale of oil and gas abroad, Moscow will not be able to fulfill its socio-economic obligations to the population and regions. Centrifugal processes will immediately begin in the national republics, the North Caucasus, removed from allowance, will again become a big problem. Protest activity will increase. All these are prerequisites for a coup d'etat, if not a revolution at all, and a real civil war. It would seem that Washington should start dancing, but no.

Russia is a nuclear power, its uncontrolled disintegration with the possible spread of arsenals in several newly emerged "republics" is definitely not in the interests of the United States. And where are the guarantees that new Bolsheviks will not suddenly come to power, who will start building the USSR-2 without fools and then show the Americans "Kuz'k's mother"? In general, Washington definitely does not need to "tear to shreds" our economy.
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 17 2021 16: 19
    +1
    "restrictive measures" - I love this euphemism ... good
  2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) April 17 2021 16: 48
    -1
    Dear Sergey can, when he wants. It is a pity that the article cannot be a plus.
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) April 17 2021 17: 07
    -1
    Why US sanctions never worked against Russia

    - Well, why didn't they work ... - How did they work ... - These sanctions allowed the United States to accustom Russia to constant and unpunished strikes from the United States; and also quite meekly and meekly to teach the entire population of Russia to expect similar next blows ... - And everyone in Russia already knows and is accustomed to that ... - as soon as Russia dares to do something; then ... then ... then "punishment" will immediately follow ... - And this is already taken in Russia ... for granted ... - But Russia is a huge state, with its own thousand-year history ... ; which defeated all enemies ... - How is it and why is this so us ??? - We didn't deserve this ... - Hahah ...
    - As for ... "Vladimir Putin, inconvenient for the White House"; then why is he so "inconvenient" ???
    - Quite convenient ... - always "ready for dialogue", always "ready for meetings" ... - no special requirements for the United States ... - So what more could you want ???
    - China is a big hindrance to Americans today; Well, here too the US is going to come to an agreement with China, sacrificing Russia (and China is not against such a variant) ... - Today even Lukashenka easily and simply leads our guarantor around his finger ... - and such hardened politicians like Americans and quite a lot "for anything" ...
    - As for the fact that

    that the new Bolsheviks will not suddenly come to power, who will start building the USSR-2 without any fools and then show the Americans their "mother of Kuzka"?

    - That is hardly possible today ... - Although such an option would be the most favorable for Russia ...
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) April 17 2021 17: 25
    0
    The ruble has already reacted to the news by sagging against the dollar.

    When and how much? Did I miss this big event?

    True, the ban on the export of hydrocarbons and other raw materials abroad according to the "Iranian scenario".

    For Iran, this did not become a catastrophe, and they cannot impose such restrictions. Why will this be a disaster for Russia?
    The volume of trade with them is extremely small, and even then they cannot replace Russian fuel oil because restrictions on others have already been introduced above the roof. And Europe beeps, but categorically does not want to give up our hydrocarbons. We sit and watch how the Nord Stream is being built. Yes, everyone spat on their locked.
    It’s not that they don’t want, but rather that the desires do not coincide with the possibilities.

    In general, I did not see any answer, at least sane, why this is happening and what they want.
    Well, for the empty-headed liberda it will go yes There are already clapping hands laughing
  5. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 17 2021 18: 35
    0
    Three colleagues are in place, it will work! Do not erase the pluses, I heartily ...
    What are we going to discuss purely and specifically about?
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 17 2021 20: 22
    +1
    sanctions never worked against Russia

    Prices are constantly rising, wages are falling, everything has been said about the pension reform, demographics are getting worse, they are not even trying to correct them in words. The fact that all of our leading companies on the board of directors out of ten, eight represent NATO countries, which means that these companies are no longer Russian, is also an indisputable fact. Well, where, in what place did it not work? Or does it have 25 million jobs, as Putin promised? You upset me. There is no logic. The article looks more like a petty toadie. No wonder they say: "A bad example is contagious."
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 17 2021 20: 32
    0
    And, all and so and not so at the same time.
    Vveelito mainly against military production and odious encirclement.

    Once - and Armata was left without French sights. No Armata yet.
    Two - and the machines already have to be imported from China, Chinese engines and chips for satellites to buy ...,. And they are like that ..
    Three - it’s already so easy senators and officials will not trample on to buy massive decorations, dachas, palaces, to give off official daughters for European nobility ... It’s not a feast during the plague, but a smart business lunch ...
  8. Alexzn Online Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) April 18 2021 07: 58
    -3
    Why US sanctions never worked against Russia

    It worked! How and to what extent is another matter. Russia is not a Urundi-Burundi, it is a world power. The West froze the Russian economy at the "reference" level on the 13th. So far, Russia has achieved structural progress and import substitution, but GDP (both) is marking time. Against the background of China and even just against the background of the dynamics of the world economy, it is too little.
  9. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 18 2021 11: 58
    -1
    Choto looks like a look from the 90s. Like, Omerika needs a strong whole Russia ...
  10. There will be products - there will be everything: money, clothes, salary, food, in a word - EVERYTHING!