Why Putin is not afraid of the Ukrainian offensive in Donbass

В previous text we examined the motivation of Kiev and Moscow in a possible conflict in Donbass, and why Putin ignores Zelensky and does not pick up the phone. In this we will touch upon the motivation of Washington and explain why, in fact, such a saber-rattling has happened now.

What Biden is seeking

It is quite understandable that the United States is catching the muddy water pouring in Ukraine now. The White House is the beneficiary of these events, from which everyone but himself is in danger of losing. In the event of a completely possible aggravation (no matter who starts it, the Russian Federation will be blamed anyway), and the quite easily predictable military and political defeat of Kiev, there will be no winners in this conflict. The territorial misunderstanding called "Ukraine" will forever disappear from the world map as a losing party, whether it will be absorbed by Russia, whether it will enter into it as a separate independent territorial entity or continue to exist in some other status, the winners will decide, not The UN Security Council (by the way, where is it? Something has not been heard for a long time!). But in this situation, Russia will also take full advantage of it. The real "Iron Curtain-2.0." Will descend before her, after which the "Iron Curtain-1.0.", Lowered by the collective West in front of the USSR, will seem to us child's play. This, in fact, is the ultimate goal of the United States. As a result, the whole world will fall at their feet and become bipolar again.



And Russia, as a reward, will receive a sentence - complete international isolation and the status of a rogue state, with all that it implies. On the contrary, the USA has a lot of bonuses. At first, due to the appearance of an external enemy, they will at once solve all their internal problems, consolidating the nation around a real external threat (and they now have a complete exit on the internal track). Secondly, Biden will be able to finally forget, like a bad dream, all these dirty hints from Putin about a multipolar world and the division of spheres of influence and do what he does best - fighting the Russians. Thirdly, the Yankees will regain their classic worst enemy, with which they can fight for decades, and NATO will once again return to its raison d'être. AND fourthly, the entire remaining free world in the face of blatant lawlessness will close its ranks around the one and only hegemon. Agree, there is something to fight for. And if for this it is necessary to sacrifice some kind of Ukraine, then this is not a question at all. It is strange that such a simple thought did not occur to Trump. Beat them all with one blow. And most importantly, the States themselves do not risk anything. No US Army soldier will be harmed in this case. The perfect solution. Classics of the genre! And to blame Biden for this is somehow even stupid - he has a desperate situation. The United States can only survive at our expense.

We run the risk of returning again to the 80s of the last century, when our limited contingent entered the DRA. Disconnection from SWIFT, arrest and blocking of all our accounts and assets in the West, with the blocking of all financial and other transport flows (goodbye to the unfinished SP-2 and other SP-1, Yamal-EU, I am not even talking about the Ukrainian pipe), a ban on exchange technology, the supply of spare parts and components, for the maintenance and repair of our foreign-made aircraft fleet (we have half of it there are Boeings and Airbuses, who will extend their air resource?). This I sketch only the first thing that comes to mind, every little thing like a sport, a flag, an anthem, doping, in general, forget it - there will be no time for them. How at the same time Rosatom will fulfill its contractual obligations on maintenance and replacement of nuclear fuel at foreign nuclear power plants under its jurisdiction, the Americans do not soar - they will be replaced by assemblies from Westinghouse. How they themselves will manage without our titanium - somehow they will manage, they will find in another place. Astronauts from the ISS are also being evacuated. But how Europe will manage without our gas, in my opinion, even she herself does not know. But she simply will not have a choice. Before the fact of blatant aggression on the territory of a sovereign state, everyone will break down.

Europe will be just that tidbit that will go to America, which sacrificed such a dubious asset as Ukraine for its sake. It is for Europe and who will milk it that the war broke out here, if anyone has not yet understood it. The States don't care about Ukraine, they don't even care about Russia. They fought for the EU and the exclusion of the Russian Federation from its market. A united Europe from Beijing to Lisbon is America's nightmare. If this happened, then the world hegemon would turn into a small regional power with a sphere of influence no further than North and Latin America, in fact, which he was in the 19th century before the First World War. It is no coincidence that I wrote above from Beijing, and not from Vladivostok to Lisbon, because China was the final beneficiary of this project, and the New Silk Trade Route does not lead to the Russian Federation, but through the Russian Federation to the EU. Therefore, in this war, even Russia is a splinter that can fly off in a fight in which two lumberjacks - America and China - have come together. The fight is not for life, but for death. We will see who will win soon. So far it's a draw.

Considering all these threats, especially against the background of the unfolding large-scale NATO exercises in the Black Sea region, where US armored vehicles from nearby areas are being pulled together (some of them even without changing the desert camouflage), the air wing is pulled up and in the waters of the Black Sea, changing each other, attack missile ships of the US Navy enter and other NATO members, Russia is forced to take a number of preventive measures, proceeding from the principle: "It's better to stay out of sight than to fail!"

"If a fight is inevitable, then you must hit first!"

All of you, probably, remember this famous statement of Putin, put in a subtitle. This is the very case when it is not applicable. We got into a stalemate where we couldn't hit first, so all our activity went into the accompanying scenery. Moreover, some especially impressionable citizens behind these decorations did not consider the main thing - for the sake of which they, in fact, were erected. Those. behind the fence they did not see the forest, and some did not even see the fence, only its media accompaniment. I will try to remove unnecessary fears. Everything that you are now observing is not preparation for war. There will be no war - there will be maneuvers.

Better to overtake than not to overtake

Recently, the Russian press and political Top bloggers' topics are off scale from bravura marches and jingoistic military rhetoric on the theme: "You just stick your head and you won't collect bones!" If we add to this and newsarriving every day in real time about the pulling of NATO troops to our borders, as well as the reciprocal movements of Russian troops in the direction of Ukraine-Crimea, the oil painting will be complete. Naturally, this topic does not go unnoticed on television channels, crowds of experts and military analysts roam around them, excitedly discussing the prospects for a possible confrontation and how it all might end. The recipient of this product is the internal audience, but it is not addressed to them at all, but to our old sworn "partner friends" from NATO and Washington, as well as their lost shores Ukrainian and other Baltic-Polish-Romanian-Georgian satellites-hangers-on, jumping out of their pants in impotent hatred of the Russian Federation.

The level of incompetence of the authors who describe all this is striking in all this. The eyes are dazzled by self-propelled heavy 240-mm mortars 2S4 "Tulip", no less formidable self-propelled 152-mm howitzers 2S19 "Msta-S", the world's most powerful 203-mm self-propelled artillery units 2S7 "Pion" and 2S7M "Malka" , echelons on open platforms sent to the borders of Ukraine from Siberia and Krasnodar Territory. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that this is the heaviest artillery in service with the Russian Armed Forces. The 58th Army, which took part in forcing Georgia to peace in 2008, and the Pskov paratroopers of the 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division, in particular their 104th Regiment, stationed in the village of Cheryokha, are moving in the same direction. to Crimea. This is the elite of the Russian troops. If we add to them the Buryat tankers, together with their T-72s moved to the borders of Ukraine from Yurga, Kemerovo region, as well as the best Russian anti-aircraft missile systems Pantsir-C1 and S-400, hastily transferred to the Crimea, allegedly for participation in the exercises, one can understand the uncertainty of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Khomchak, who has changed his testimony several times over the past two weeks about the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to solve the tasks assigned to them. Now the military scenario for the liberation of Donbass has become unacceptable for them. How! Less than two weeks later, and such a sharp reversal. And the wording begins to swing - you see, the civilian population may suffer. Those. before that, the civilian population did not bother them, but then, seeing the equestrian-diving armored Buryat divisions of the “killer-Putin”, who had lost touch with reality, immediately began to worry about the fate of their own citizens.

And this is despite the US Air Force military transport planes landing one after the other at the airports of Kiev and Lvov, transferring unknown military cargoes there from their military bases in Europe. I don’t even remember about five military transports of the Qatar Air Force and another Turkish Air Force transporter that disembarked in Kiev in the second half of March. As well as about the dry cargo ship, chartered by the Pentagon, which delivered 25 tons to Odessa on March 350, it was also not at all civilian cargo. And already about such small things as NATO ships changing each other on a rotational basis in the Black Sea, somehow I don't even want to remember. They simply registered there, of course, in compliance with the Mantreux convention on displacement and duration of stay (no more than 21 days). What difference does it make to us that the Spanish missile frigates Cristobal Colón (F-105) and Mеndez Nunez (F-104), which participated there in two different NATO exercises (Sea Shield-2021 and Poseidon-2021), together with the American missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG-61) and attack missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116), were rotated by two other US Navy destroyers - our old acquaintance USS Donald Cook (DDG-75) and his brother USS Roosevelt (DDG -80)? As a result, we have that the ships of the US Navy and other non-Black Sea NATO countries were registered there on a permanent basis and, together with the ships of the Naval Forces of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, in the course of incessant, one after the other exercises are preparing to repel Russian "aggression".

Particularly touching against this background are the cheerful statements of some expert bloggers far from military topics (and, moreover, women) that all uninvited guests will happily await the unsinkable aircraft carrier "Crimea", nominated into the Black Sea, with its coastal missile systems "Ball "And" Bastion ", equipped with anti-ship missiles" Onyx "and X-35" Uranus ", and the ships of the Caspian Flotilla hurrying to help him, equipped with cruise" Caliber-NK ". And this is not counting three more large landing ships "Minsk", "Kaliningrad" and "Korolev", which, accompanied by the attack corvette "Boyky", are moving in the same direction from the Baltic. One would like to ask these experts, how do you know the destination of these three large landing craft and the accompanying corvette? So far they have passed only the English Channel and entered the North Atlantic. They are being watched by the US Air Force, but no one knows yet where they will go, to Syria or to Sevastopol. And why such a strengthening of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is armed with enough funds to sink several times in a row everything that floats there under different flags in the waters of the Black Sea, which is shot through and through. These American destroyers, which will enter the Black Sea on April 14-15 (at the time of writing, they have passed only Gibraltar) and will stay there until May 4-5, are potential drowned people if something starts there. And they know it very well. Therefore, they are there not at all for a war with the Russian Federation, but for target designation and suppression of Russian air defense and aerospace forces, if, God forbid, Kiev does start a mess, which has been planned for 7 years.

In the meantime, all this clanking, flying and moving on the sea armada, is preparing for the long-announced exercises "Defender Europe-2021", which from March to June should be held in several European countries at the same time, and Ukraine is one of them. During the declared exercises in the water area from the Baltic to the Black Seas, with the involvement of 28 thousand troops from 26 countries, actions to repel armed aggression will be practiced, guess who? Therefore, the equipment is brought from all over Europe, some even in desert camouflage (it can be seen that it arrived from Africa), therefore the sides land in Kiev and Lvov, and dry cargo ships are unloaded in Odessa. Therefore, Russia is pulling its troops into this region, because it does not know how these exercises can end, while simultaneously conducting its large-scale strategic exercises "West-2021" in the territory from Kaliningrad and Belarus to the Crimean Peninsula and Kuban.

Why is Russia acting this way? Because Ukraine has become a part of Defender Europe-2021, although the legend of the exercises says that she is only an observer, not a participant in these exercises. And how can it be a participant in NATO exercises without being a member of this organization? It would seem that the question is rhetorical. An, no - I further quote the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:


The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clarified that they will work out actions in defense with a further transition to the offensive in order to restore the state border and the territorial integrity of the state. More than a thousand servicemen from five NATO countries will take part in the exercise. The dates of the "Cossack Bulava" are not named.

Guess from three times which aggressor country you are talking about and why the Ukrainian military does not name the exact dates of the exercises? Because the script is written in the course of the play. And Russia, by its preventive actions, is making significant amendments to the script previously written and approved by the Customer (in Washington). And the fact that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine changed the previously announced plans to restore the integrity of Ukraine by force and de-occupy Donbass is the result of these actions.

PS

While the material was being written, it became known that NATO's plans had changed dramatically. USS Donald Cook (DDG 75) and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80), which were supposed to enter the Black Sea on April 14-15 and stay there until May 4-5, declared for the exercise, the USS Donald Cook (DDG 14) and USS Roosevelt (DDG XNUMX) strike missile destroyers, suddenly changed their route abruptly and nowhere no longer go. On April XNUMX, Washington officially informed about this, notifying Ankara about the cancellation of the aforementioned passage of a group of ships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. And you say the gunboat policy doesn't work. How it works! It's just that our coastal gunboats turned out to be more terrible.