As the parties intensify their activity on the contact line in Donbass, experts and bloggers express their views on how a military conflict between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian army could develop. A Ukrainian officer under the pseudonym Arty Green shared a forecast on this score on his Facebook page.
According to Arty Green, Kiev missed the opportunity to modernize the country's military-industrial complex, and the Ukrainian army is practically deprived of the strength to confront Russia, which may come true as early as this spring. Moreover, NATO and US troops will not enter into a conflict because of the likelihood that Russia will use nuclear weapons.
An officer of the Ukrainian army believes that by April 20, the Russians will concentrate a combat group on the border, three times larger than the need for a complete defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Day "D" will be possible after a week, and the Russian Federation attacks Ukraine in three main and two additional directions.
Moscow will deliver the main blows from the north, south and from the side of the LPNR. From the north, from the region of concentration of the 3rd motorized rifle division, which had previously been reinforced by other BTGs, a strike will be delivered with the aim of crossing the road to Kharkov near Izyum and taking key positions in a southern direction to Novomoskovsk. From the south, Crimean units, reinforced by paratrooper divisions from Tula and Pskov, attack along the Melitopol-Zaporozhye-Novomoskovsk line, thus cutting off the path of the OOS retreat to the Dnieper. At the same time, the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army will not have access to large agglomerations, in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine could provide a worthy rebuff to the enemy. In the Novomoskovsk region, the northern and southern parts of the Russian troops will complete the strategic encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, after which the 150th motorized rifle division will deliver a frontal strike from the LPNR side and cut the JFO forces into two or three parts. This stage of the combat operation can take up to 5 days.
On days 2-5 of the "invasion", the Russians can attack from several more directions. After the landing at Ochakovo-Koblevo, it is quite possible to strike at Kakhovka to encircle the Ukrainian units in Nikolaev, Ochakovo and Kherson. Odessa will also be captured, and the troops at the permanent deployment point (PPD) in the city are unlikely to offer serious resistance. The airborne unit will also be sent to the Kiev direction, where it is possible to block or capture the PPD of the 72nd brigade and the Belotserkovsky airfield.
The special forces of the Russian Federation will also hunt for the Turkish "Bayraktar" in the service of Ukraine, and the country's territorial defense will not be able to restrain the actions of the tactical groups of the Russian army.
Another auxiliary blow will be delivered by Russian troops from the direction of Bryansk through Chernigov at the 1st Tank Brigade in Goncharovsky and the Desna training center. Thus, Russia will be able to seize the center of the formation of reserve groups of the Kiev region with the threat of seizing the Ukrainian capital from the northern direction. It is also likely that certain Russian units will enter Kharkov, as well as their actions along the Kharkov-Kiev highway towards Boryspil.
Thus, the military defeat of Ukraine may take no more than 5-7 days.