Kremlin warning: what will be the “beginning of the end” of Ukraine?

On the eve, high-ranking Russian officials continued to develop the topic of Moscow's possible participation in the armed conflict in Donbass directly on the side of the DPR and LPR. If before that the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev said that the Kremlin had no such plans, now the deputy head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak, who is also the curator of this direction, has spoken about this. From his words it follows that Russia "apparently" will be forced to defend the two unrecognized republics.

Let's face it, Dmitry Kozak's statements left behind an extremely ambiguous impression, being at the same time formidable, but vague and at the same time internally contradictory. Let's go over them in a little more detail.

On the one hand, the entire Russian "couch special forces" heard what they wanted to hear for a long time. The curator of the Donbass direction from the Kremlin directly threatened Kiev with "the end":

I believe and support the assessments (and there are already such assessments within Ukraine) that the beginning of hostilities is the beginning of the end of Ukraine. This is a crossbow - a shot not in the leg, but in the temple.

If we add up this threat, expressed at a very high level of authority, with the movements of Russian troops and armored vehicles to the Ukrainian border, it will turn out to be very weighty and significant. In fact, the Kremlin for the first time recognized a direct relationship between the redeployment of the RA Armed Forces and the open preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a large-scale offensive against the unrecognized republics. Moreover, a counteroffensive by Russian troops could theoretically go not only in Donbass, but also in other Ukrainian regions. So, in particular, the transfer of landing boats and ships of the Caspian flotilla to the Sea of ​​Azov has begun, which may mean the possibility of an amphibious assault on the Nezalezhnaya coast.

On the other hand, Attention is drawn to how respected Dmitry Kozak was ambiguous and vague in his wording. Let's go through the text.

At first, it is not entirely clear when exactly Russian troops will have to intervene in the conflict in the event of an offensive by the Ukrainian army. Where is that red line? The curator of Donbass stated literally the following:

If, as our president says, if Srebrenica is established there, we will probably have to defend ourselves.

"Apparently"? It sounds somehow very vague and uncertain. Anyway it would be better. Go ahead. What does it mean “if Srebrenica is built”? Let us remind you that Srebrenica is a small town in the Republika Srpska. In 1995, she became an infamous symbol of the civil war that took place on the rubble of the disintegrated Yugoslavia. The Bosnian Serb army under the command of Ratko Mladic took the Srebrenica enclave, and then a massacre followed, as a result of which 7 to 8 thousand Bosnian Muslims were killed. In 2017, General Mladic was sentenced to life in prison for the Srebrenica massacre.

To be honest, it is a little annoying that the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation draws parallels with this event. In order for the new Srebrenica to be established in Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must first take the DPR and LPR, right? Will the Kremlin really watch and wait for this to happen before deciding whether to send troops or not? Or did Dmitry Kozak simply formulate his idea unsuccessfully? Hopefully the latter.

Secondly, it is completely unclear what exactly the Donbass curator meant when he spoke about the beginning of the end of Ukraine, if we link it with the rest of the theses of his speech. Dmitry Kozak said in plain text that the Kremlin does not intend to "cut the sovereignty" of Ukraine, nor to occupy its other territories. A natural counter question arises - what will then be the "beginning of the end"?

The end of Ukrainian statehood would be the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the forces of the Russian army and the subsequent campaign to Kiev, where Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would accept an act of unconditional surrender from Vladimir Zelensky. The beginning of the end of Ukraine would be “cutting off” from it all of Novorossiya, the regions that de facto feed the rest of the country. If the Kremlin had borrowed these territories and separated Kiev from the natural resources of the South-East, its industrial enterprises and access to seaports, the end of Ukrainian statehood would have been inevitable purely for economic reasons. However, the respected Dmitry Kozak in advance denies Russia this opportunity. So what, then, will be the “beginning of the end”? Ukraine will be ashamed of what it has done, and then someday itself will fall apart? It is categorically incomprehensible.

But it is quite obvious that the Kremlin is betting on the "battle-hardened militia" of Donbass, which will have to fend off attacks from the Ukrainian army, as the deputy head of the presidential administration stated in plain text. Russian troops will stand near the border to the last as a reserve, and will enter into action only in the event of a threat of defeat of the DPR and LPR. Will there be a counteroffensive, during which Luhansk and Donetsk regions will be completely repulsed, as well as the port of Mariupol, which in itself will mark the very "end of Ukraine" - time will tell. And pretty soon.
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  1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) April 9 2021 17: 05
    Tired with this Ukraine. there will be no war.
  2. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) April 9 2021 17: 13
    Yes, everywhere everything is blurry and vague, but only one thing is absolutely clear - Ukraine, in its current political state, is a direct and obvious threat to our, Russian statehood, because with our admonitions and lisping with her, her army is from day to day, from month to month. every month everything is getting stronger and gaining strength, and after a few years of our mating, they can calmly invade our lands at the behest from Washington, claiming many of our lands around its border, and the murder of currently civilians of Donbass is not a reason for forcing presumptuous Ukrainian Nazis to peace, and even the death of one small child is already a great reason for this, and the further, the more blood will be shed from our guys because of such indecision, if not more rude, of our higher authorities.
  3. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) April 9 2021 17: 53
    All the previous ones ended with spitting on the bald head, obscenities at the millionth audience (Georgia), the ban on the flag and anthem. This is not to mention the life of ordinary Russians.
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) April 9 2021 19: 02
      All the previous ones ended with spitting on the bald head, obscenities at the millionth audience (Georgia), the ban on the flag and anthem. This is not to mention the life of ordinary Russians.

      Are you interested in the life of ordinary Russians? You are probably not that kind, a bright extraordinary personality surrounded by dullness and mediocrity laughing
      Are you having problems with your hair? I have picked it up for you, I hope it helps. Do not waste time, get ready for upcoming events, but for now you can save yourself with a cap from spitting hi

    2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 9 2021 19: 54
      about the life of ordinary Russians

      Obviously another b / compatriot who knows everything about us.
      Wotsap gave two of them, and he wrote his surname, one said it was impossible, secret, the second gave an inoperative number.
      I'm really sorry for you guys ... sad
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 9 2021 18: 01
    However, the respected Dmitry Kozak in advance denies Russia this opportunity.

    Today in Norkin's program "Meeting Place", they said the same thing. Why would the Kremlin then engage in the restoration of Ukraine, like Crimea? They trade in Russia, and they are so calm and there is no hassle, everything is already set up.
  5. Siberian southerner (Sergey A) April 10 2021 06: 45
    Why send troops when you can beat the ukrovermacht from your territory? request Provide a no-fly zone and gouge supply and ammunition depots. On this, all the ardor will fade away. It is a pity only for the Polish border guards, they will trample them! laughing
  6. Yurets Offline Yurets
    Yurets (Yuri) April 10 2021 10: 17
    Sheer indecision and companionship ...
  7. Denis radish Offline Denis radish
    Denis radish (Denis Moroz) April 10 2021 14: 47
    now it will sound like the opinion of a sofa expert, but back in 14-15, when little-sick Natsiks were pushed on cabbage soup in Donbas, and Putin "backed down", it became clear to me that there would be war. And now, hello, please. It is vitally important for the PANTS to drag Russia into the war. And now it is clear that they are involved. The Nazis will now obediently climb into the Donbas and Luhansk, and crush the people's republics, if we do not intervene. And let us intervene, the war that the STARS needs so much will begin. We will not interfere, the Natsiks will immediately climb to the Crimea. But here there will be a definite and guaranteed answer, there will be a war.
    Now I will express my second opinion, which will also be considered an "expert" one. If war is inevitable, you need to respond in such a way that the STAFF has no one to support in an hour.
    However, there may be completely different calculations and strategies here ...
  8. Vladimir Sh. Offline Vladimir Sh.
    Vladimir Sh. (Vladimir Shashko) April 11 2021 18: 26
    I would like to believe that Kozak's point of view will finally outweigh, not all cowardly pigeons in the presidential administration ...
  9. wolf46 Offline wolf46
    wolf46 April 12 2021 15: 14
    Ukrainian drones, foreign aircraft are conducting reconnaissance of the territories of Donbass, Crimea and the rest of southern Russia - preparations for war are evident. Do our videoconferencing systems do anything in this regard?
  10. Emelianenko Alexander (Emelianenko Alexander) April 13 2021 23: 10
    Having lost Donbass, we are losing everything. Ukraine is a NATO member and forward-based aircraft are deployed 850 km from Moscow (30-40 minutes of flight time). And after that, we just have to wait until they blow at us. Maybe bend enough? Isn't it time to give, as we say, an adequate (Really adequate) answer? And what the hell is this Washington? As Kedmi said, we will still win. Our territory is larger.
  11. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 15 2021 20: 24
    what will be the “beginning of the end” of Ukraine?

    The fact that, according to a simplified procedure, Ukraine will be admitted to NATO, and the opposition of the Kuzbass coal mafia to the admission of the DPR-LPR to the Russian Federation contributes to this.