Balts threaten Russia with retribution for intercepting Belarusian transit


Following oil products, Belarus started thinking about transferring its potash fertilizers to Russian ports, this time not theoretically, but substantively. Under this case, Moscow and Minsk are negotiating the construction of a new terminal for bulk cargo in the Leningrad Region. From such News in Klaipeda they grabbed their heads, and the Lithuanian business, tied to the Belarusian transit, even threatened Russia with a naval blockade of the Baltic straits by the NATO fleet.


To date, Belarus has already reoriented to Ust-Luga almost half of the export volumes of its oil products (gasoline, oil and fuel oil). The agreement will be valid for a period of three years with the possibility of subsequent renewal. So that Alexander Grigorievich does not suddenly change his mind, the principle of payment is provided, regardless of whether he used the service or not. Now the turn of Belarusian fertilizers has come, but this requires appropriate port facilities. There are two ways to solve this problem.

Three large-scale infrastructure projects are currently being implemented in the Russian part of the Baltic Sea. These are the Lugaport universal terminal from the Novotrans company and the bulk cargo terminal from Ultramar in Ust-Luga, as well as the Primorsky universal loading terminal, respectively located in the city of Primorsk. However, Minsk is more interested in the prospect of opening its own terminal in the Leningrad region using funds saved during the construction of the BelNPP with a Russian loan. So far, this issue is under discussion, but, apparently, the Belarusian terminal may appear in Ust-Luga. If the project is implemented, Klaipeda may lose from 9 to 10 million tons of cargo, which is more than one fifth of the total volume of Belarusian transit.

From such news, it’s just right to start pulling your hair out in all available places, but Lithuanian businessman Igor Udovitsky, known as the local "potash king", hastened to reassure his fellow citizens that in the coming years such a reorientation to Russian ports is impossible, if not even dangerous Minsk and Moscow. Let's take a closer look at his arguments.

At firstUdovitsky, who himself sold to Belarus a 30% stake in the bulk cargo terminal in Klaipeda, believes that this "anchor" should not allow Minsk to break away and sail towards Moscow. Indeed, geographically, it is more convenient for Belarus to use the services of neighboring Lithuania, but in the economy intervened policy... What will Alexander Grigorievich do? Let's be realistic: most likely, President Lukashenko will prefer to spread his eggs in two baskets at once, as he has done earlier with oil products. Half of the Belarusian export will go through Ust-Luga, and the second will remain in Klaipeda. This is how Batka diversifies its risks and will be able to make meaningful hints to both Moscow and Vilnius at the same time.

Secondly, regarding the economic disadvantage of such a reorientation of freight flows. Udovitsky points out that the transport leg will be significantly lengthened, Minsk will have to purchase and use a thousand railway cars, and use ice-class ships in winter. Indeed, the costs will increase, but this volitional decision is not so much economic as political. Losses of Belarus will be compensated by discounts on railway tariffs or by another financial scheme, while for Russia it is a matter of integration with its only ally in the western direction. You have to pay for this.

Thirdlyregarding Minsk's reluctance to grant Moscow indirect control over the export of one of its main export goods. Indeed, Belaruskali and Uralkali are direct competitors in the world market, and President Lukashenko's desire to isolate himself at a separate terminal in Ust-Luga is quite natural. But let's be realistic again, after the break in relations with the West, Alexander Grigorievich has nowhere to go. The merger of the two companies is a matter of time, and it will be better for Belarus if it is a partnership instead of a hostile takeover.

As for the last, most resonant argument of Mr. Udovitsky, it causes genuine bewilderment. The Lithuanian businessman stated the following in all seriousness:

There are risks of an even higher order. The Baltic Sea is connected to the North Sea and the Atlantic through the Danish straits, which are the territorial waters of NATO countries. Relations between the EU, NATO and Russia continue to deteriorate, and at some point, as one of the measures of pressure on Russia, there may be a restriction on the passage of ships through the straits to Russian ports. If at this moment "Belaruskali" is loaded, for example, in Ust-Luga, it will become a hostage of the situation.

What is the restriction on traffic to Russian ports? Foreign courts banned from visiting Ust-Luga on pain of sanctions? Let's admit. And what about the Russian ships leaving Ust-Luga and going through the Baltic straits to the exit? Will they also be banned? Will they arrange a naval blockade by the NATO Navy? Well, this is already a war and there will be no time for fertilizer trade. And what if Lithuania itself prohibits Belarus from using Klaipeda for political reasons? Then Minsk will not be a hostage of the situation?

Some "murky" threats are coming from Lithuania, where local businessmen in fact undertake to threaten the nuclear power with the fleet of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Ad
We are open to cooperation with authors in the news and analytical departments. A prerequisite is the ability to quickly analyze the text and check the facts, to write concisely and interestingly on political and economic topics. We offer flexible working hours and regular payments. Please send your responses with examples of work to [email protected]
27 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper April 3 2021 11: 55
    +9
    Let the "politicking" Lithuanian "businessmen" "thank" for their losses their own short-sighted ameromarionet "rulers" and their wretched submarionettes - "kuhoSvetku10%" with henchmen! fool
  2. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) April 3 2021 13: 04
    +5
    Balts threaten Russia with retribution

    I even know what the retribution will be to us, or rather I guess, because she is one. They will feed the seagulls with their sprats, to spite us. laughing
    1. riider Offline riider
      riider (Eugene) April 4 2021 18: 03
      +3
      They are already buying sprats in Russia.
      https://fishki.net/3316218-jeto-konec-v-latvijskih-magazinah-pojavilisy-rossijskie-shproty.html
  3. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk April 3 2021 13: 06
    +9
    Sprat, sprat, sprat .... Who would have known that these were sprats .... Chukhontsy, Tsukhontsy, Chukhontsy ... Who would have known that these are Finno-Ugric peoples from the three Baltic territories. .... Finland ... Who would have known that their language was understood by the Komi. There is only one question: how long will the subjects of Russia, bought by Peter the Great, bought from Sweden, in the temporarily occupied territories of NATO, be furious?
    If anything, then Vilna is a Belarusian city.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 3 2021 13: 24
    -5
    1. Lukashenka is not eternal, and the opposition is supported by the entire “West”. Ukaina was also a priority in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, but what do we have?
    2. Politics will be determined by the economy, and this is a mutual interest of Belarus and Lithuania. After Lukashenka leaves and the political course changes, they will agree.
    3. The transit privileges granted to Belarus are of a political nature and to some extent burden the RF budget.
    4. Any right, including the sea, that the tongue, wherever it turned, and it came out. The third energy package is an example of this. They can even block the exit from the Gulf of Finland with transboundary duties, for example - the territorial waters of Estonia and Finland touch and close the passage.
    5. Also applies to the Danish, Turkish Straits and the English Channel.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 3 2021 15: 24
      +7
      If it's not a secret, from which country do you call the English Channel the "English channel"?
    2. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
      Astronaut (San Sanych) April 9 2021 17: 46
      +3
      If "oppositionists" come to power in Belarus, which is unlikely, then all Belarusian oil refineries will be left without oil, as Ukrainian factories once were, and will go for scrap (for example, a plant in Kherson) ?, this is the first.
      Second, on which map did you find that the territorial waters of Estonia and Finland close?
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 3 2021 13: 43
    +5
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    1. Lukashenka is not eternal, and the opposition is supported by the entire “West”. Ukaina was also a priority in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, but what do we have?
    2. Politics will be determined by the economy, and this is a mutual interest of Belarus and Lithuania. After Lukashenka leaves and the political course changes, they will agree.

    The opposition is the opposition, but the West is not yet determining the "Power Transit" scheme. He also supports the opposition in our country, so what? As for the mutual interest, the dependence of Belarus on Russia is higher than on Lithuania.
    And I would not say that Ukraine was a priority area of ​​Russia's foreign policy. If there really was, then they would not have merged it clean up in 2014. Another word suggests itself.
    1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 3 2021 17: 57
      -2
      Lavrov named a priority at the MGIMO anniversary.
      After the failure of the priority direction, M.Yu. Zurabov, the ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine, was removed.
      After the riots in Belarus, G.A. Rapota was removed and transferred to the governor's office.
      Cooperation with the Russian Federation was much higher among all post-Soviet states, but this did not prevent some of them from joining the EU and NATO.
    2. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 5 2021 14: 24
      -1
      Do not forget that Belarus is part of the Eastern Partnership program, but Russia is not.
      Belarus is subject to colonization, and the Russian Federation is to be dismembered.
      1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
        Astronaut (San Sanych) April 9 2021 17: 56
        +2
        It is necessary to learn history about the dismemberment of Russia! And 2 sq.m. we have enough for each dismemberment!
        It was necessary to dismember in the 90s, and you clicked, now it will not work.
  6. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF April 3 2021 13: 46
    +1
    Listen here, right now, I'll hit that uncle's vooon with my fist.

    In the USSR, they did not have such an opportunity, therefore now they are full of happiness ...
  7. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 3 2021 14: 04
    +3
    Not only does Lukashenka have an ass on two chairs, but now he also has eggs in different baskets? laughing good
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 4 2021 08: 04
      0
      Glad you appreciate the humor.
  8. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 3 2021 14: 12
    +1
    Ah, there are a lot of psychos everywhere. They are specially looking for a hillock in order to promote what has been said ...
    Doesn't apply to life ...
  9. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) April 3 2021 15: 57
    +3
    Lukashenka will prefer to spread his eggs in two baskets at once, as he has done earlier with oil products.

    The baskets are going further and further, there is a risk of not having time to pull out one of them, or even lose both. In retirement, he will sing in falsetto, entertain Rostov residents.

    Minsk will have to purchase and use a thousand railway cars, and use ice-class ships in winter.

    Not quite clear what this is about? Do they carry fertilizers on carts now, or do all the wagons belong to the Balts and they will no longer supply them? Klaipeda in hot countries, and in Ust-Luga birds freeze on the fly? Is there a big difference with the climate?
  10. Vadim Ananyin Offline Vadim Ananyin
    Vadim Ananyin (Vadim Ananyin) April 3 2021 17: 56
    +2
    Such chatter from powerlessness and from overstated conceit in the essence of the life of all the Balts en masse.
    There are, however, doubts that the main members of the NATO countries will want to engage in the blockade and the detention of the Russian courts because of the stupidity of the independent countries. It's just fraught!
  11. nikolai.shupenin April 3 2021 21: 37
    +3
    will be closed on their own ... there will be one strait instead of denmark ..
  12. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) April 4 2021 01: 40
    +4
    Foreign courts banned from visiting Ust-Luga on pain of sanctions? Let's admit. And Russian ships leave Ust-Luga and follow through the Baltic straits to the exit

    And on what basis will they PROHIBIT something to us? There is international law, which clearly states in peacetime, no one has something to prohibit Kama! To begin with, that would prohibit Russia must officially declare war. But this is already another song! I think there are no idiots for the sake of Lithuania to arrange a third world (nuclear) war ... The Chinese have 5-7 silk roads to deliver goods to Europe .... It is their right to deliver their goods to Europe. Something the Baltic states are not making noise that China has stopped using their ports ...
  13. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 4 2021 08: 02
    0
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    Cooperation with the Russian Federation was much higher among all post-Soviet states, but this did not prevent some of them from joining the EU and NATO.

    Well, these are claims to our political leadership. Hopefully, by 2021, they have learned at least something from the example of Belarus in 2020.
  14. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 4 2021 08: 03
    0
    Quote: 123
    Not quite clear what this is about? Do they carry fertilizers on carts now, or do all the wagons belong to the Balts and they will no longer supply them? Klaipeda in hot countries, and in Ust-Luga birds freeze on the fly? Is there a big difference with the climate?

    These are the arguments put forward by Udovitsky.
  15. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) April 4 2021 08: 46
    0
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    2. Politics will be determined by the economy, and this is a mutual interest of Belarus and Lithuania. After Lukashenka leaves and the political course changes, they will agree.
    3. The transit privileges granted to Belarus are of a political nature and to some extent burden the RF budget.

    And how does the second with the third in your head connect?
    In clause 2 everything is determined by the economy and Belarus and Lithuania will agree. And in point 3, the economy evaporated and the transshipment of goods through Russia is not beneficial to either Russia or Belarus.
    The phrase "burden the budget of the Russian Federation" is correct, as any money burdens the pocket.
  16. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) April 4 2021 14: 46
    0
    The most that one can get is shit in their mouths and spit in the direction of Russia
  17. General Black Offline General Black
    General Black (Gennady) April 5 2021 10: 01
    +1
    Balts threaten Russia with retribution

    Do they have the means to pay off? Do you have money?
  18. Restless Sagittarius (Vladimir) April 6 2021 21: 58
    +2
    Lord, I guess I'm too tired today. It was a difficult day ... We are threatened with Sprat Extinctions ... should I start to be afraid now, or is it possible a little later ?! The blockade of the ports of the Russian Federation is unambiguously interpreted by international laws as a declaration of war ... Someone will seriously fight with the Russian Federation for Sprotland ?! Oh, it's not even funny, there are no bad ones ... they will not even fight for Norway with the Russian Federation ... the game is not worth the candle.
  19. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 8 2021 08: 16
    0
    Quote: Jacques Sekavar
    Do not forget that Belarus is part of the Eastern Partnership program, but Russia is not.
    Belarus is subject to colonization, and the Russian Federation is to be dismembered.

    Not all of our enemies' plans are destined to come true
  20. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) April 10 2021 11: 09
    0
    Threats? They still cannot think of them, except to support the provocations of our enemies in some PACE, from where we all will not come out, financing this gadyushnik.