The war in Donbass could trigger a whole series of conflicts around the world

The day before, the leaders of Germany, France and Russia held an online meeting, where they discussed the situation in Belarus, Syria, Libya and Ukraine. The latter extremely alarmed Kiev, because they believed that its fate would be decided without him (it’s unprecedented). By and large, we can already say that the "Normandy Four" is being replaced by the "Big Three", which is forced to interact with each other to solve not only pan-European, but also more global problems. And this is not an exaggeration.

The urgency of convening such an informal trilateral summit is due to the escalation of the pre-war situation around Donbass and Crimea. The Internet is replete with photographs of trains with armored vehicles, which are sending Ukraine and Russia closer to a possible theater of war. The likelihood that Kiev, with the go-ahead from Washington, may try to repeat the "Karabakh scenario" against the DPR and LPR is extremely high. But now the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has added another headache: the chances that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can commit a provocation not only against the unrecognized republics, but also against the Russian Crimea, have sharply increased. We will discuss in detail what response options will arise in this case before the Kremlin. told earlier. But why did Germany and France, who have supported Ukraine since the coup d'etat in 2014, this time decided to talk about it with Russia behind its back?

The answer is simple: neither Berlin nor France really needs a full-fledged Russian-Ukrainian war. "Euroassociation" and economic takeover of the Square - yes, please. This is both a new market for European goods and a cheap skilled labor force. But the war in the Old World, real, with missile and bomb strikes and tank wedges, they are unnecessary. Moreover, they do not need what can start after its completion.

Let's take a look at the big picture. In the past few years, the process of revising the results of not only World War II, but also World War I has begun actively. So, Turkey took the northern regions from Syria by military force. Turkish troops came to Libya, where Ankara made the official Tripoli revise the boundaries of the continental shelf rich in hydrocarbon reserves in its favor. It seems that the Turks are ready to actually fight in the Eastern Mediterranean and with Greece for the islands they lost. Turkey also helped Azerbaijan by force to resolve the long-standing territorial conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and now its views are turned to Central Asia. Successful neo-Ottoman policy “Sultan” Erdogan clearly inspired Kiev to try to move forward in Donbass. If Washington gives the go-ahead, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine may even try to swing at the Crimea and arrange a military provocation on its border. And this can entail very serious and far-reaching consequences that do not suit Germany and France.

At first, in the event of a counteroffensive by Russian troops in the Ukrainian direction, the European Union will have to impose a new package of sanctions against Moscow. For Berlin, in particular, this means the inglorious end of the Nord Stream 2 project, which is unlikely to please Chancellor Merkel. Economic cooperation between the EU and the Russian Federation will be rapidly phased out.

Secondly, Kiev can apply for military assistance to the NATO bloc and ask for the entry of alliance troops into its territory. The corresponding law, it is permissive, has already been adopted. If German and French soldiers find themselves in Ukraine on a permanent basis, this will automatically lead to a deterioration in relations between Berlin and Paris with Moscow.

ThirdlyThere is no doubt that the United States is using the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine as an excuse to deploy its medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe to "contain Moscow's aggression." In response, the RF Ministry of Defense will be forced to target the respective countries with the Strategic Missile Forces. No Europeans in their right mind would want that.

But these are far from all possible negative consequences. An example of a military solution to a long-standing territorial problem can be contagious. Moldova and Romania may be tempted to crush Transnistria by military means. Japan has the ability to carry out a naval blockade of the Kuril Islands for their return. Beijing may try to finally resolve the "Taiwan issue", which will entail US and European sanctions against it, complicating the economic cooperation of Germany and France with China, which will only benefit the United States. The NATO bloc can blockade the Kaliningrad region. It is assumed that then he will return to Germany, but a natural question arises, and what will happen to the rest of the former East Prussia, which withdrew from the Third Reich to Poland? This is the reason for the conflict between the European neighbors. Etc.

It's like a snowball thrown from a mountain, which leads to the collapse of a real avalanche, sweeping away everything in its path. Note that Merkel, Macron and Putin discussed among themselves both Syria and Libya and Ukraine. It is in the common interest of the Big Three to prevent an uncontrolled chain reaction from starting.
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker April 1 2021 16: 17
    For whom the truth is, he is right! And don't blow on the water. We need to defend our interests, and what is beneficial for Russia. Azerbaijan was not frightened and everyone kept silent. And if Russia had not intervened, then Armenia would have already been the wrong state. Because the truth was in Azerbaijan. In military affairs there is the concept of meanness, and there is the concept of military cunning. Putin is friends with Jews, but he cannot grasp the difference between these concepts. Or maybe it still hasn't come, he plays for a long time!
    1. Sergey Demin_2 Offline Sergey Demin_2
      Sergey Demin_2 (Sergey Dyomin) April 7 2021 21: 57
      calm down painful, do you go to bed without mentioning Putin? or do you curse the coming dream?)
  2. Valentine Online Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) April 1 2021 16: 36
    The biggest stumbling block and threat to peace on the European continent is Nazi Ukraine, just like Hitler's Germany in its time. but remember how the PMV began - with one single shot of a powdered student of Principle, and then more than 22 million people died, in which about 30 countries from all continents, but mainly from Europe, took part. I once had a heart-to-heart conversation with a guy from Zap. Ukraine, and that was even before the Orange Revolution, and he told me that they had been raised from the cradle in the spirit of Galician nationalism since the occupation of their lands by the Red Army in 1939, and since that time they have been gradually accustomed to the idea that The USSR is their fierce enemy, and that sooner or later they will still be at war with the USSR, and now with Russia, so it happened. War with Ukraine is inevitable in any scenario with their hope that the West will help them, and therefore, at the slightest provocation, we need to start a military action to "enforce peace", up to tactical nuclear missiles, if necessary, which needed to be done much more earlier, but our political leadership of the country shows some kind of cowardice and uncertainty in this, which can lead to the complete dismemberment of our country in the event that packs of jackals attack us from all sides at the same time - Japan will take the Far East, Siberia will go to the Chinese, the entire Caucasus will be occupied Turkey, something will go to the Galicians, and the entire European part and northern territories will be seized by America, England, and the Scandinavians, and we will simply disappear from the face of the earth - and this will happen with a 100% probability, if we continue to chew snot, apparently bloody
    the lessons of the beginning of the Second World War, and 27 million Soviet people perished, did not teach us anything.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) April 1 2021 17: 00
      An emotional plus for the post.
      But there is a question. In which of the following countries have you worked that you are so sure that their citizens will go to new lands?
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) April 1 2021 21: 47
    The inevitability of war predetermines Ukraine's failure to comply with the Minsk agreements, concluded many years ago.
    Ukraine's failure to fulfill its obligations is a consequence of the policy of Nemetchina and France, and the United States behind them, which officially call the Russian Federation its strategic enemy. NATO will also prolong this US policy towards the Russian Federation.
    The President of the Russian Federation has repeatedly said that he considers Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians to be one people and therefore pursues a policy of preventing civil war.
    As part of this policy, the Russian Federation does not recognize the independence of the DPR-LPR and does not react in any way to their appeal to be admitted to the Russian Federation, considering the DPR-LPR a part of Ukraine and is seeking from Ukraine to fulfill the agreements concluded.
    In the event of a full-scale offensive by the armed forces of Ukraine on the DPR-LPR, as Vladimir Putin said, the Russian Federation will not stand aside and this will threaten the statehood of Ukraine.
    As Y. Kedmi said, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may not be able to cross the Dnieper in time.
    In the northern stream, the direct interest of Nemetschina, tk. The Dutch reserves of Gonningen are practically exhausted, and the Norwegian ones are insufficient.
    The infrastructure has been created to receive the Sshasovsky LNG, but it is more expensive than the RFovsky one.
    Therefore, Nemetchina fights for the northern stream, as far as possible and supports the United States in other directions, hoping for the mercy of the United States in relation to the completion of the northern stream.
    Nuclear weapons have been in Europe for a long time - nuclear warheads. Regarding the deployment of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear missiles, the Russian Federation has long and unequivocally outlined retaliatory measures.
    A series of armed conflicts is inevitable and the first candidate is the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.
    If NATO decides to participate directly, it was said about the possible use of nuclear weapons if it is impossible to prevent a foreign invasion by conventional means.
    I think the US and NATO have heard this.
  4. George Davydov Offline George Davydov
    George Davydov (Georgy Davydov) April 2 2021 16: 51
    If the quote:

    Putin is friends with Jews, but he cannot grasp the difference between these concepts. Or maybe it still hasn't come, he plays for a long time!

    then the Jews have a long-standing idea of ​​the revival of the great Khazaria. On this occasion and the attitude of Jews to Russians and Slavs, it is necessary to find this speech by Schneerson, who defines himself as a Jewish fascist and super-fascist, like many others from this shobla, read, think and draw conclusions.
  5. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 April 2 2021 20: 39
    Marzhetsky, no France with Germany will fight for Ukraine, don't talk nonsense. As for the Nord Stream, the EU has nothing to replace it with, especially if the Ukrop pipe is destroyed. The war in Donbass can become for UKROp what it has become for Georgia. They will support the Ukrainians only in words, well, maybe the Yankees will give the decommissioned Hummers, but then, after the next escape of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the front line in fragrant trousers.
  6. Sergey Demin_2 Offline Sergey Demin_2
    Sergey Demin_2 (Sergey Dyomin) April 7 2021 21: 59
    Kiev can apply for military assistance to the NATO bloc and ask for the entry of alliance troops into its territory. The corresponding law, it is permissive, has already been adopted.

    what's this???? the clause on mutual assistance does not oblige to help even members of NATO, at the discretion, they can help, but they can only with words about NATO members, but about Ukraine it is ONLY PROMISES, the Georgians also said a lot.