The day before, the leaders of Germany, France and Russia held an online meeting, where they discussed the situation in Belarus, Syria, Libya and Ukraine. The latter extremely alarmed Kiev, because they believed that its fate would be decided without him (it’s unprecedented). By and large, we can already say that the "Normandy Four" is being replaced by the "Big Three", which is forced to interact with each other to solve not only pan-European, but also more global problems. And this is not an exaggeration.
The urgency of convening such an informal trilateral summit is due to the escalation of the pre-war situation around Donbass and Crimea. The Internet is replete with photographs of trains with armored vehicles, which are sending Ukraine and Russia closer to a possible theater of war. The likelihood that Kiev, with the go-ahead from Washington, may try to repeat the "Karabakh scenario" against the DPR and LPR is extremely high. But now the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has added another headache: the chances that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can commit a provocation not only against the unrecognized republics, but also against the Russian Crimea, have sharply increased. We will discuss in detail what response options will arise in this case before the Kremlin. told earlier. But why did Germany and France, who have supported Ukraine since the coup d'etat in 2014, this time decided to talk about it with Russia behind its back?
The answer is simple: neither Berlin nor France really needs a full-fledged Russian-Ukrainian war. "Euroassociation" and economic takeover of the Square - yes, please. This is both a new market for European goods and a cheap skilled labor force. But the war in the Old World, real, with missile and bomb strikes and tank wedges, they are unnecessary. Moreover, they do not need what can start after its completion.
Let's take a look at the big picture. In the past few years, the process of revising the results of not only World War II, but also World War I has begun actively. So, Turkey took the northern regions from Syria by military force. Turkish troops came to Libya, where Ankara made the official Tripoli revise the boundaries of the continental shelf rich in hydrocarbon reserves in its favor. It seems that the Turks are ready to actually fight in the Eastern Mediterranean and with Greece for the islands they lost. Turkey also helped Azerbaijan by force to resolve the long-standing territorial conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and now its views are turned to Central Asia. Successful neo-Ottoman policy “Sultan” Erdogan clearly inspired Kiev to try to move forward in Donbass. If Washington gives the go-ahead, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine may even try to swing at the Crimea and arrange a military provocation on its border. And this can entail very serious and far-reaching consequences that do not suit Germany and France.
At first, in the event of a counteroffensive by Russian troops in the Ukrainian direction, the European Union will have to impose a new package of sanctions against Moscow. For Berlin, in particular, this means the inglorious end of the Nord Stream 2 project, which is unlikely to please Chancellor Merkel. Economic cooperation between the EU and the Russian Federation will be rapidly phased out.
Secondly, Kiev can apply for military assistance to the NATO bloc and ask for the entry of alliance troops into its territory. The corresponding law, it is permissive, has already been adopted. If German and French soldiers find themselves in Ukraine on a permanent basis, this will automatically lead to a deterioration in relations between Berlin and Paris with Moscow.
ThirdlyThere is no doubt that the United States is using the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine as an excuse to deploy its medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe to "contain Moscow's aggression." In response, the RF Ministry of Defense will be forced to target the respective countries with the Strategic Missile Forces. No Europeans in their right mind would want that.
But these are far from all possible negative consequences. An example of a military solution to a long-standing territorial problem can be contagious. Moldova and Romania may be tempted to crush Transnistria by military means. Japan has the ability to carry out a naval blockade of the Kuril Islands for their return. Beijing may try to finally resolve the "Taiwan issue", which will entail US and European sanctions against it, complicating the economic cooperation of Germany and France with China, which will only benefit the United States. The NATO bloc can blockade the Kaliningrad region. It is assumed that then he will return to Germany, but a natural question arises, and what will happen to the rest of the former East Prussia, which withdrew from the Third Reich to Poland? This is the reason for the conflict between the European neighbors. Etc.
It's like a snowball thrown from a mountain, which leads to the collapse of a real avalanche, sweeping away everything in its path. Note that Merkel, Macron and Putin discussed among themselves both Syria and Libya and Ukraine. It is in the common interest of the Big Three to prevent an uncontrolled chain reaction from starting.