The "Suez incident" showed that Russia cannot master the Northern Sea Route without China


So, the "Suez incident" is practically over. It took Egypt almost a week to uncork the most important transport waterway, through which 13% of world trade passes. According to the calculations of one well-known insurance company, the world the economy in those few days, damage in the amount of $ 6 to 10 billion could be caused. What conclusions will be drawn from this emergency?


The first thing I would like to talk about is how the operating mode of the Suez Canal will change in the future. It is quite obvious that more giants like the Ever Given container ship will no longer be allowed into it. The carriers have no complaints about the channel itself. The huge dimensions of the vessel, multiplied by the human factor, have become a problem. The result of the captain's mistake was the blocking of an important trade route and a whole line of other container ships and tankers. The exceptional size of the ship also prevented it from being promptly dragged from the shallows and unblocking the waterway. By the way, Egypt intends to recover the damage caused from the company that owns the container ship.

A direct consequence of this situation will be a steady increase in the cost of shipping. This market is divided between 5-6 powerful transport companies, in whose interests it was to rivet such giants capable of transporting up to 20 thousand containers at a time. During the blockade, carriers simultaneously raised the prices for their services almost fourfold! The cost of shipping one 12-meter container from Asia to Europe rose to $ 8. It is noteworthy that this affected all directions, even those that were not connected with transit through the Suez Canal. The cost of chartering a Suezmax class tanker to transport 1 million tons of oil now costs $ 17 per day. And this is along the water route from the Middle East to Asia. If giant container ships of the same class as Ever Given will no longer go through the Suez Canal, but bypass the African continent, then one can imagine how much the overhead costs of customers will increase, and with them the cost of goods transported to consumers. These are the circles on the water already launched by the "Suez incident".

The third issue that I would like to touch upon within the framework of this review is the prospects of our Northern Sea Route as an alternative to the Suez Canal. “On paper” it looks more preferable because of the shorter distance between Europe and Asia, the polar ice is melting, and we are pleased that most of the coastline of the Arctic Ocean falls on the share of Russia. However, there are a number of bottlenecks that are not easy to solve overnight.

At firstUnlike the habitable Suez Canal, there is no developed infrastructure on the Northern Sea Route, except for one deep-water ice-free port of Murmansk. Merchant ships should be able to moor somewhere, refuel, replenish fuel supplies, get repairs if necessary, etc.

Secondly, not every ship will pass along the Northern Sea Route. To begin with, it must be of ice class, but these are far from all the requirements for it. Substantial restrictions on the dimensions and displacement of vessels give rise to relatively shallow depths of the straits. It is necessary either to deepen the seabed in "narrow places", or to start massively building ships that meet the realities of the Northern Sea Route.

ThirdlyDespite the melting of polar ice, the ice situation on this waterway is very difficult, and therefore one cannot do without the accompaniment of a nuclear-powered icebreaker. This is especially critical in winter. Therefore, the customer will need to add the services of a pilot and an icebreaker to the cost of transportation.

What conclusions can be drawn from these calculations? Today our Northern Sea Route cannot be a real competitor to the Suez Canal. However, this does not mean that it will always be so. The process of clearing polar ice continues in a natural way. In terms of the number of icebreakers, Russia has no equal in the whole world. After the commissioning of super icebreakers of the "Leader" class, they will be able to navigate even in winter, that is, the Northern Sea Route will not function seasonally, but all year round. And this is his big plus. As for the coastal infrastructure and specialized ice-class vessels, everything is somewhat more complicated. All this costs a lot of money and is quite expensive to build. The figures are up to $ 100 billion. Today, Russia simply cannot afford such investments on its own, therefore we have two options: either to postpone this matter until better times, or to start doing it now, but in partnership with other countries.

With whom? It is clear that with China, from where giant container ships go through the Suez Canal. Beijing has both free funds to invest in coastal infrastructure and deepening of sea straits, if necessary, and production facilities where it is possible to quickly rivet the required number of ice-class vessels. He will also be the main customer of container transportation. Why would he invest in this infrastructure project? Then, between China and the United States begins its own "Cold War", and the PRC needs alternative routes for the delivery of its goods to the European market. This is a fundamental issue of risk diversification. Who knows what will happen in the Suez Canal next time? Some terrorists will detonate a bomb on board the next container ship, and he will lie on the bottom, permanently blocking the waterway for a long time. You can't get off with a few tugboats here.
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  1. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) 31 March 2021 16: 18
    .
    Russia could have mastered everything if not adventurism in domestic and foreign policy. This is how it should be, the country has everything that nature can give and for 10 years the real incomes of the population have not been growing, and outside there is not a single sincere friendly state.
    Only a couple of three hundred families close to Putin have progress.
    For sure, the Russian Federation will never be an equal partner for China. This will be easily verified by the number of technologies that China will transfer to Russia. Or have you already transferred something?
    China is already completing the process of sucking technologies from the Russian Federation itself. In space, they themselves can teach Russia.
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 31 March 2021 16: 31
      +3
      Russia could have mastered everything if not adventurism in domestic and foreign policy.

      I just read your president. And on the left is Daddy, who is proud of his son? You have an idyll in your first-person family that is worthy of your population)

      Estonian - your posts on this forum, out of pity, go through the roof, just like the posts of offended outskirts - you are birds of the same flight - The SS veterans should be gathered not only at your place, but also sent a delegation to Ukraine - so that they would merge in a single ecstasy - offended and broken

      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) April 2 2021 18: 59
        -1
        I am not an Estonian and your post has nothing to do with the topic. Learn materiel. Do not litter on the forum.
    2. How much do you get paid from the State Department?
    3. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 31 March 2021 19: 02
      +2
      Russia could have mastered everything if not adventurism in domestic and foreign policy. This is how it should be, the country has everything that nature can give and for 10 years the real incomes of the population have not been growing, and outside there is not a single sincere friendly state.

      Estonia could be bigger and have something to master if not for laziness and carelessness, and so it remains to sit on the farm and envy the vastness of its neighbors. With regard to income .... First of all, our neighbors, including European ones, shit on us, and you are on subsidies. Secondly, the growth of income comes at the expense of the printing press, to which we will see.

      money is printed in incredible quantities, it will backfire with inflation

      https://rus.postimees.ee/7214056/rayvo-vare-dengi-pechatayutsya-v-neimovernyh-kolichestvah-eto-auknetsya-inflyaciey

      As for "sincere friendliness," in interstate relations, we begin to move to a pragmatic approach, as a rule, friends like Estonia cost money, in fact they are kept women.
      Now a little about the sincerity and friendliness within the EU.

      Portugal, currently holding the EU presidency, has proposed redistributing 3 million doses of BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine to countries with high morbidity and low vaccination rates, including 41 doses for Estonia.

      This is how your "friends" treat you, you have a high incidence rate, about 46 people are vaccinated (000 injections), this is, in my opinion, about 2% of the population. And now they send you 3 doses, which is interesting for Croatians 40, Latvia - 000. You are given vaccines 684 times less, but the population of Croatia is 000 million, which is only 376 times more than yours.
      It is customary for us to accompany such friends by the trunk to the museum. laughing

      The proposal involves the allocation of 2 doses to Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia, all of which have ordered few BioNTech / Pfizer vaccines. The doses will be distributed by country as follows: 857 for Bulgaria, 060 for Croatia, 41 553 for Estonia, 376 689 for Latvia and 602 921 for Slovakia. Another 142 doses are intended for the Czech Republic to help vaccinate 940% of the population.

      https://rus.postimees.ee/7214493/v-es-predlagayut-pereraspredelit-v-polzu-estonii-bolee-40-000-doz-vakciny-biontech-pfizer

      Only a couple of three hundred families close to Putin have progress.

      Is it different for you? Just a couple of families close to Kaljulaid make up almost half of Estonia laughing

      For sure, but for China, the Russian Federation will never be an equal partner.
      It will be easy to check by the number of technologies that China will transfer to Russia. Or have you already transferred something? China is already completing the process of sucking technologies from the Russian Federation itself.

      What does equal mean? What does the partner and technology transfer have to do with it? fool
      It turns out that Russia is transferring technology to China? So they are not equal to us, but backward? Is that what you mean? Then it is rather strange to expect that they will transfer technology to us. In general, you have twists in your brain.

      In space, they themselves can teach Russia.

      Farmers who talk about space are wonderful good Dream high laughing
      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) April 2 2021 19: 08
        -2
        Quote: 123
        Estonia could be bigger and have something to master if not for laziness and carelessness

        In our time, it is not size that determines success, but quality. Estonia is quality. 2 Estonians do as much as 3 Russians do.
        Japan is dozens of times smaller than the Russian Federation, but they are not driving your used cars.
        Estonia: 70% risk group first vaccination. 16% of the entire population. How about this in the Russian Federation?
        You are rushing to conclusions. We will all count in the next. year.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) April 2 2021 19: 58
          +2
          In our time, it is not size that determines success, but quality. Estonia is quality.

          The spool is small but expensive, the bug is small ... okay, let's move on lol Apparently, you will soon be extracurricular. good That only losers do not think of what to justify laughing

          2 Estonians do as much as 3 Russians do.

          You have omitted the word "nonsense" in your sentence winked

          Japan is dozens of times smaller than the Russian Federation, but they are not driving your used cars.



          Option with alternative subtitles (profanity is present):



          And if they take it seriously. In 2020, about 200 thousand new foreign cars were imported.
          https://www.autostat.ru/news/46858/

          This is about 10 times more than in "quality" Estonia
          With a sales volume in Russia of about 1,5 mln.
          https://auto.vercity.ru/statistics/sales/europe/russia/

          The reasons? Cheap and cheerful.
          https://rg.ru/2020/06/27/v-rossii-vvodiatsia-novye-ogranicheniia-na-vvoz-pravorulnyh-mashin.html

          How to learn to do better than the Japanese write. After all, you are even less of them, for sure you should make just masterpieces laughing

          Estonia: 70% risk group first vaccination. 16% of the entire population. How about this in the Russian Federation?

          Where did the data come from? According to the links that I left, the numbers are slightly different negative And the point is if something is not in them, but about

          sincere friendliness in interstate relations

          and your friendly European family.

          You are rushing to conclusions. We will all count in the next. year.

          What are you going to count?
        2. kapitan92 Offline kapitan92
          kapitan92 (Vyacheslav) April 2 2021 23: 58
          +1
          Quote: Vladest
          Estonia: 70% risk group first vaccination. 16% of the entire population.

          COVID-19 vaccination statistics in Estonia
          As of 01.04.21 in Estonia:
          203 365 people (15.33% of the population) - vaccinated with at least one component of the vaccine
          63 696 people (4.8% of the population) - fully vaccinated
          267 061 pcs. - total vaccinations done
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 March 2021 16: 46
    +2
    It is possible that just as the USSR once made China communist, China will eventually influence Russia in returning to communist rule. But it may already be other communists.
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 31 March 2021 17: 45
      -7
      Who would make China communist. The Chinese can influence Russia in the coming to rule of the Chinese in the Russian Federation.
      1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
        Bulanov (Vladimir) April 1 2021 11: 54
        +1
        China is ruled by the CCP. They may well contribute to the rule of the Communist Party in Russia. And the people in their majority are closer to the Soviet Union than the cap. Russia. Peacefully again on the rails of socialism with a human face. With the help of Chinese faces.
        1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
          Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) April 1 2021 13: 59
          0
          Quote: Bulanov
          China is ruled by the CCP.

          Is there anything communist about the CCP besides the name? Knows who Liang Wengen is? A member of the CCP with a net worth of 11 billion, and not yuan. China is now the most natural wild capitalism with minimal social protection. Socialism is primarily the socialization of the means of production. The Chinese public sector invests less than 30% in GDP, for comparison, the public sector of the Russian Federation is estimated at 70% of GDP. Yes, there is more socialism in Russia than in China.

          Quote: Bulanov
          They may well contribute to the rule of the Communist Party in Russia.

          For the Chinese, with their millennial civilization, the world (heaven) is ruled by the Chinese emperor (chairman), but some savages are not aware of this. And the task of the ruler of China is to enlighten these savages in every possible way, so that it would come to them who is the true ruler of the heavens. I do not think that in this regard, the Russian Federation is an exception for them.

          Quote: Bulanov
          And the people in their majority are closer to the Soviet Union than the cap. Russia.

          This is highly controversial.

          Quote: Bulanov
          Peacefully again on the rails of socialism with a human face. With the help of Chinese faces.

          Can you choose Swedish socialism? And then the Chinese with a human face looks painfully inhuman.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 31 March 2021 17: 55
    0
    Interest in the Northern Sea Route is present not only among the PRC, Japan, Korea, but also other states.
    The shipbuilding potential of interested states can put the construction of ships of any class on stream, and rivet like cars.
    The issue is not in infrastructure, in the legal sphere. If an international consortium undertakes its creation, the painful question of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation will inevitably arise, and it will inevitably have to be waived.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) April 1 2021 23: 11
      +2
      If an international consortium undertakes its creation, the painful question of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation will inevitably arise, and it will inevitably have to be waived.

      From us, provision of pilotage and infrastructure. (It already exists)
      From you ships for wiring and money.
      Without options.
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) April 1 2021 23: 03
    +1
    The "Suez incident" showed that Russia cannot master the Northern Sea Route without China.

    Russia is quietly mastering the Northern Sea Route.

    The author is again trying to pull the owl onto the globe.

    Not so long ago, he argued that Russia generally needs to abandon the Arctic and urgently flee to develop Antarctica.

    Now a dancer cannot master the Arctic without China.

    The next article will be "Why does Russia need Siberia without China" ??? repeat
  6. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 2 2021 10: 09
    0
    Quote: Ulysses
    Not so long ago, he argued that Russia generally needs to abandon the Arctic and urgently flee to develop Antarctica.

    I didn't say that, dreamer laughing