What if Ukraine "accidentally" attacks Russian Crimea


The Ukrainian Maidan has become a serious test for the Russian authorities. In the period from February to May 2014, the Kremlin had very good cards in its hands: the legitimate President Yanukovych, sitting out in Rostov, pro-Russian sentiments in the South-East of Independence, a nationalist bacchanalia in Kiev. It was enough to send troops to the Ukrainian capital, placing Viktor Fedorovich on a tank, and carry out a special operation according to the "Belarusian scenario", restoring the constitutional regime, and then work on the mistakes. However, unshakable determination was enough only for the Crimea, for the DPR and LPR the fuse was no longer enough. Instead of solving the root of the problem, which lies in Kiev, the Kremlin preferred "multiple moves". And now, seven years later, it will come with a heavy price.


The key mistake of President Putin was to return Crimea and “half-turn” the DPR and LPR, leaving the Russophobic regime in Kiev under the direct external control of the collective West. Over the years since the coup d'état, the United States and the European Union have imposed a whole package of restrictive measures on Russia, and Kiev has multiplied the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and carried out their reform, significantly increasing its combat effectiveness. Now the updated 250-strong Ukrainian army threatens our country in two directions at once, in the Donbass and in the Crimea.

As for the DPR and LPR, Moscow, like Kiev, refuses to recognize their independence and considers them part of Independence. The essence of the dispute between the parties to the Minsk process is only in the conditions of their return back and who will then pay for the entire banquet with the restoration of the region destroyed by the war. Against the two proclaimed republics, Ukraine has concentrated a large group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which at any time can go on a large-scale offensive. Russia, as the guarantor of the security of the DPR and LPR, will have to intervene either directly or indirectly. But there is no doubt that any of its activities in this area will be immediately marked by the next package of Western sanctions.

But this is not enough for our ill-wisher. Now the "Crimean card" is also being played. The root of the problem lies in the legal status of the peninsula. Both the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol are Russian regions in accordance with the Constitution and other legislation of the Russian Federation. However, neither Ukraine itself nor the overwhelming majority of countries, following the United States and the European Union, recognized the peninsula as Russian, still considering it a "temporarily occupied" Ukrainian territory. About how Kiev beckons the NATO bloc to the war for Crimea, we in detail told earlier. Then we came to the conclusion that the North Atlantic Alliance instead of Ukraine with Russia will not fight for the peninsula, but it can help in the "de-occupation" of intelligence, military advisers and weapons.

It should be noted that some preparation is already taking place. If earlier the DPR and LPR were the main directions for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now Kiev has already begun to transform the approaches to the Crimea into a huge military base. The process of transferring the combat equipment and other weapons to the Kherson region bordering the peninsula: trains and convoys are going. The Ukrainian army is concentrating and conducting exercises using the Smerch MLRS, the range of which is 120 kilometers. The deployment of Tochka-U OTRK was noted, the maximum range of which also reaches 120 kilometers.

One cannot help but wonder why Kiev is holding this demonstration?

Since 2014, the RF Ministry of Defense has turned Crimea into a tough nut to crack. The peninsula has an echeloned anti-aircraft defense, it is also covered from the air by combat aviation. It is protected from threats from the sea by the Bal and Bastion coastal missile systems, as well as ships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet armed with the Caliber cruise missiles. The Army Corps, which forms the backbone of the ground forces, is backed up by Iskander-M OTRK, which can launch missile strikes at a distance of up to 500 kilometers. Recently, the operational capabilities of the Crimean group have been increased due to the redeployment of an airborne regiment of the Airborne Forces on a permanent basis. Currently, the transfer of additional armored vehicles to the peninsula from the mainland of the Russian Federation has been noted. What is the Ukrainian army going to do with all this?

The simplest answer is nothing, this is just a demonstration. However, the correct answer will be much more difficult. Of course, Ukraine alone will not be able to recapture Crimea by military force, not according to Senka's cap. And who said that she even needed it today? It will be quite enough to try with varying degrees of success. Let's try to present the main scenarios and how Moscow might respond to them.

Unlike Donbass, the options with "vacationers" will not work here, as well as the "Ossetian scenario". Crimea is legally a part of the Russian Federation, so the RF Ministry of Defense must respond to military aggression accordingly. The key question is how far the Kremlin will be willing to go in the conditions of 2021, and whether it has drawn any correct conclusions from the events of 2014. So, options for action.

Let's say the Armed Forces of Ukraine accumulate a large military group on the border with Crimea and conduct large-scale exercises. During the maneuvers "Tochka-U" or MLRS "Smerch" are practiced "accidentally" on Russian territory, but they do not touch anything. How to react? Express "deep concern" through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, or strike back on Ukrainian territory through the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation? If we don't answer, it will look like weakness. If we answer, the international community will consider it "Russian aggression" and will introduce a new package of sanctions against our country.

Let's go further. And what if "Tochka-U" or "Smerch" strike "accidentally" on civilian or military targets in Crimea? What then? Again "concern"? Or to raise the Russian Aerospace Forces into the air or from Iskander to work on the Ukrainian positions from where the missile strike was delivered? Then the anti-Russian "howl" will start again, and a new package of Western sanctions is guaranteed. And it’s good if this settles the situation. And what if the Armed Forces of Ukraine also respond to the missile and bomb attack of the RF Ministry of Defense and further escalation begins with the use of more and more military equipment on both sides? It is clear that these are mutual losses and new restrictive measures against our country.

For example, instead of heeding the admonitions of domestic diplomacy and "making peace", Nezalezhnaya will step up hostilities on the border with Crimea with the moral support of the West. What then? This is already a direct attack on Russia. Break up the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region and go to Kiev to resolve the issue at the root? Then NATO, at the request of President Zelensky, will send its troops to Ukraine, and the United States and the European Union will take an extremely tough package of restrictive measures against our country. The North Atlantic Alliance will strengthen its military presence in the Black Sea. The deployment of American medium-range missiles in Europe to "contain" Moscow will be a matter of the near future.

Don't go to Kiev? To drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from the Crimean border at the distance of a Tochka-U missile strike and create a “security belt” in the Kherson region? So all the same, there will inevitably be Western sanctions, and the Ukrainian army will begin to dig in along its perimeter, building the "Zelensky line", and will concentrate a large strike group there. Near the peninsula, Moscow will receive a new point of permanent military tension.

Wherever you throw, everywhere a wedge. All options for Russia are bad only because in 2014 one good one was missed.
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  1. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) 31 March 2021 12: 45
    +6
    Thank God that none of Sergey's predictions ever came true)))
    1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Wolf) 31 March 2021 15: 09
      -10%
      and where did you see the forecasts here, dear ?! the author calculates the options, this is called an analysis of the situation, but this is not for you, you see only the consequences, and will continue to rake for the USA
      1. Netyn Offline Netyn
        Netyn (Netyn) 31 March 2021 15: 10
        +8
        Quote: Volkonsky
        this is called situation analysis

        Only in this analysis of the situation the author forgot to add the analysis itself
        1. Volkonsky Offline Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Wolf) 31 March 2021 15: 20
          -10%
          neptune, I personally have nothing to you, I have enough here ... and without you it is enough, let's better have more constructiveness, in the margins of the texts you can not hate the author, but discuss the problem, which the author does
  2. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 31 March 2021 12: 51
    +11
    The key mistake of President Putin was to return Crimea and “half-turn” the DPR and LPR, leaving the Russophobic regime in Kiev under the direct external control of the collective West.

    The author's key mistake is to transfer the current situation to the past, and to reproduce: "Why?" Because in '14 we did not have Daggers. There was no electronic warfare Tarantula. There was no required number of missiles and delivery vehicles. ... And now - there is. Therefore, the recorded and documented shelling of the Crimea will be the basis for the Belli incident. And it is clear that the NATO mongrels will fit in with the Svidomites, and we will have to abruptly and non-diplomatically lower them.
    1. Kristallovich Offline Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 31 March 2021 13: 52
      -1
      there were no daggers

      "Dagger" was a matter of time. There is nothing new in principle.

      There was no electronic warfare Tarantula

      Was.

      There was no required number of missiles and carriers

      What kind of media?
      1. Dear sofa expert. April 1 2021 08: 47
        +2
        There was no required number of missiles and carriers

        What kind of media?

        Don't find fault with words. You can see that this is just a mistake.
        In fact, the person is right. Russia acted on the basis of the then realities, all the nuances that we simply cannot know.
        1. Kristallovich Offline Kristallovich
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) April 1 2021 10: 21
          -1
          Don't find fault with words. You can see that this is just a mistake.

          This is your purely personal opinion. I did not see an error there.

          In fact, the person is right.

          Again, count as you wish. I have a different opinion.
    2. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 31 March 2021 14: 38
      +11
      as it is doubtful that NATO soldiers will go to die for some Ukrainians, whom they prefer in the form of sausages to Bavarian beer.
    3. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
      Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 2 2021 00: 21
      +1
      in addition to missiles, etc. there are many other things in Russia for 2014, but I completely agree with you
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 31 March 2021 13: 13
    +3
    An article in the style: "We haven't done anything yet, but we are already scared." There are facts, and arguments from the "and if" area. And the conclusion is that everything is lost. And this is my style. And in order not to guess what will happen and what will happen next, we must put our enemies in a difficult situation by our own actions. If you keep defending yourself, you can't win any war. Putin boasted that if a fight was inevitable, he had to hit first. For this, our troops are moving to the border, I hope? They threw a black mark on Putin, there is nothing left to lose.
    "Wherever you throw it, there is a wedge everywhere." And here, I agree with the author!
    1. Netyn Offline Netyn
      Netyn (Netyn) April 2 2021 14: 41
      0
      Could never have thought that I would ever deliver Stalevar plus
  4. Monax Offline Monax
    Monax (Hermann) 31 March 2021 13: 17
    +5
    If you do everything with caution, then Russia is "about..om". The time has passed to "wag the finger".
  5. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 March 2021 13: 20
    +3
    And what kind of fuel and lubricants does the military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine use near the Crimea and LPNR? On what was delivered from Russia and Belarus? Oh well! And there is no need to wring your hands. Better to think about the mistakes of 1941.
  6. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
    Alexndr p (Alexander) 31 March 2021 13: 45
    +5
    Russia will accidentally raise the question of statehood in the barn
  7. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 31 March 2021 13: 51
    -27%
    Wherever you throw, everywhere a wedge. All options for Russia are bad only because in 2014 one good one was missed.

    - and indeed, the only correct option has been missed - Putin shouldn't have climbed into Crimea in 2014 ...
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 March 2021 14: 11
      +12
      If in February 2014 in Ukraine, in the Cherkasy region, they did not shoot and burn 8 buses with Crimeans, then their choice in favor of Russia would not be so obvious for some of the people. Let Ukraine say thanks to its Nazis for the loss of Crimea.
      1. Essex62 Offline Essex62
        Essex62 (Alexander) April 5 2021 10: 34
        0
        The territory of all Ukraine, like other Union Republics, is the USSR. The destruction of the Empire in "national apartments" occurred as a result of a bourgeois, armed coup in Moscow in 93, the authorities of all these "states" are not legitimate, by definition. Moreover, 99% of citizens were in favor of preserving the USSR. It is not enough to throw out the Nazis from Kiev, it is necessary to restore the Union. To begin with, at least the Slavic part of it. And do not care about the sanctions, as the leadership and the people of the USSR did not care about them. Let their accounts be closed there and the children returned home, all levers of influence will disappear by themselves.
    2. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 31 March 2021 14: 23
      +10
      Putin shouldn't have climbed into Crimea in 2014 ...

      whose Crimea?)
      1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
        Alexndr p (Alexander) 31 March 2021 16: 01
        +5
        yes, I read his comments - this is a great ukp, the hydration and quality of which does not reach the battle for "their" land, but leaving comments on the Muscovites forum - marks a medal, no less
      2. free_flier Offline free_flier
        free_flier April 1 2021 21: 34
        +1
        Definitely not him anymore
    3. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
      Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) April 2 2021 00: 22
      -1
      there was no need to arrange a coup in Ukraine
    4. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
      sH, arK April 2 2021 09: 40
      +1
      Why so? Speech about the opposite, why only Crimea? We understand that Crimea itself wanted to leave Ukraine for a long time, and in 2014 it was just able to take advantage of it, but others did not mind either! Odessa, Nikolaev, Kherson, Kharkiv - after all, there were enough people who wanted to change jurisdiction! We missed this in vain! Now this will have to be corrected, but over the years, many have already been brainwashed there, and with the most severe measures ...
  8. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 31 March 2021 14: 16
    +3
    All the horrors that the author described, in the case, "and if we answer" one way or another will be brought to life by the state-western Caudla. And if you do not respond to such a probable attack from Ukraine, you can lower your trousers and turn in your back seat for an indicative flogging.
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 31 March 2021 16: 35
      +3
      the state of the APU is getting closer every day to the moment that only hemorrhoids can fall out.
  9. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 31 March 2021 16: 51
    +9
    1) The fact that Putin did not return Donbass in 2014 is his serious miscalculation, but the fact that he did not go to Kiev and did not return Ukraine to the rule of the rotten two-faced Yanukovych, who is not pro-Russian, but frankly rotten, he did it right. Feed dill at the expense of the Russian Federation is not a horse feed. There is no point in re-educating them either; it has been proven by the USSR that a man cannot be made of a jackal.

    2) As for what to do in the event of an attack by Ukrainians, then they need to be beaten with Iskanders, vacuum warheads and what God has sent ... Return Donbass under the flag of Russia and finally deport from the Russian Federation all the evil spirits sick with Russophobia ... their slaves will always find not even a reason, but a pretext for introducing new sanctions against the Russian Federation.
  10. Leonidas Grips Offline Leonidas Grips
    Leonidas Grips (Leonidas Zakatov) 31 March 2021 22: 37
    0
    And if they run around Belgorod. 40 km from the border, 60 from kharkov. What do we do?
  11. Andrey Shesternin (Andrey Shesternin) April 1 2021 06: 26
    +3
    Marzhetsky - he is so Marzhetsky;)
  12. Anatoly Osipov Offline Anatoly Osipov
    Anatoly Osipov (osipov) April 1 2021 08: 28
    +1
    But don't butt, but decisions and plans are probably in the right places ready, lying. It was not for nothing that the solvers rode to the taiga to have a rest
  13. Georgij Offline Georgij
    Georgij (Yuri) April 1 2021 08: 39
    +4
    It is immediately obvious that the article was not written by a patriot of Russia. What is the phrase:

    If we answer, the international community will consider it "Russian aggression" and will introduce a new package of sanctions against our country.

    It's just nonsense - ordinary citizens are dying under the bombing, and the author is afraid that "the United States and the European Union will take an extremely tough package of restrictive measures." How can human lives be compared with incomprehensible restrictive measures ?!
    And the title? Why is the word "random" in quotation marks? How to decipher - attacks and not by chance?
    Uv. editors, do not publish more such scribblers. This is not an alternative point of view, but one of two things - either a carefully thought-out article using technologies of psychological influence, or outright stupidity based on an attempt to analyze, well, no more than 10% of open and public information.
    1. 8888 Offline 8888
      8888 (Mikhail Mutyan) April 1 2021 21: 04
      +1
      the article was written not by a patriot of the Russian Federation -)))))), but by a patriot of Bandera Ukraine!
  14. nehoroshih48 Offline nehoroshih48
    nehoroshih48 (alex) April 1 2021 09: 28
    +2
    "dill" are afraid to attack because, according to the words of the Armed Forces themselves, the "otvetka" arrives immediately and harshly, but this is in a random order. And if it starts on a large scale. Then, from the words of "Hamster", a big one will fly to the ears ....
  15. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 1 2021 10: 48
    0
    Again, the reviews are looking forward to blood. How many predictions did not come true, but you still need to scare with blood ...
  16. TermNachTer Offline TermNachTer
    TermNachTer (Nikolai) April 1 2021 12: 41
    +1
    Already asked the author when he saw Banderaffen up close? Firstly, there are no 240 thousand dugs, not even close. The staffing of units - divisions is 50 -70%. It is better to keep quiet about the quality of these snouts))) because in a decent society it is not customary to pronounce such words. Secondly, the equipment is old, in a semi-killed state, there are practically no shells for large calibers, that is, it has been in warehouses for more than 30 years. And 1000 more reasons why there will be no war))))
  17. 8888 Offline 8888
    8888 (Mikhail Mutyan) April 1 2021 21: 01
    +1
    a typical Russophobic pro-Western article ... There is no serious objective (!!) analysis of the whole situation.
  18. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
    Astronaut (San Sanych) April 1 2021 23: 28
    +1
    And what if the Armed Forces of Ukraine also respond to the missile and bomb attack of the RF Ministry of Defense and further escalation begins with the use of more and more military equipment on both sides?

    What "missile and bomb" strike against a nuclear power?
  19. Azat Mambetov Offline Azat Mambetov
    Azat Mambetov (Azat Mambetov) April 2 2021 11: 01
    0
    Are the Ukrainian military themselves ready to fight? The option with the support of the Russian Federation is turned weapons and throwing this junta is not considered? There must be adequate commanders in the General Staff. No? Or is it all without options?
  20. issberg Offline issberg
    issberg (issberg / - / - / - /) April 2 2021 11: 54
    +2
    Economically strong Ukraine ANYONE does not need. Neither the West nor the RF! Send troops to Kiev, and then feed all this Bandera shobla? Let them continue to ride, they will quickly rest themselves! The sanctions of the Russian Federation are only beneficial, even the United States admits it!
  21. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) April 2 2021 14: 38
    +1
    Quote: Georgij
    or outright stupidity

    Stupidity, the author is widely known for his articles in the style - "Nastya dropped the sausage, and the cat ate it. Now Russia will definitely die, and indeed everyone will die."
  22. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) April 2 2021 14: 40
    0
    Quote: Azat Mambetov
    Are the Ukrainian military themselves ready to fight?

    According to the data, about 40% of the Ukroverrmacht personnel sabotage orders and refuse to open fire towards the republics.
    And this is without large-scale hostilities
  23. Vladimir Sh. Offline Vladimir Sh.
    Vladimir Sh. (Vladimir Shashko) April 2 2021 19: 34
    -2
    There is only one option, to otuzhivayu all unchanged to the lunar landscape
  24. Nikolai Up Offline Nikolai Up
    Nikolai Up (Nikolai Ivanov) April 3 2021 07: 18
    0
    Don't be afraid guys. None of NATO will fit in for Independence Square. Go to an armed conflict with a nuclear power ?! Are you seriously? Therefore, if Kiev rushes to the Crimea, go to Kiev, and then to the border with Belarus.
    1. Nikolai Up Offline Nikolai Up
      Nikolai Up (Nikolai Ivanov) April 3 2021 18: 52
      0
      Actually, I wrote - don't be afraid, guys! ...
  25. Helge Offline Helge
    Helge (Helge) April 4 2021 01: 42
    -1
    I would like Ukraine to finally understand that the war with Russia, in any of its manifestations, will last two weeks, and then there will be a complete occupation of Ukraine.
  26. Serge Golitsyn Offline Serge Golitsyn
    Serge Golitsyn (Vladimir) April 4 2021 11: 55
    0
    In this case, Ukraine may inadvertently disappear.
  27. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) April 5 2021 01: 32
    0
    Kremlin stupidity will come up with something, do not worry !!!! There are enough stupid people on this score)))))
  28. Design Ovragov Offline Design Ovragov
    Design Ovragov April 5 2021 11: 55
    0
    There is one very accurate and always coming true forecast. Russia can screw up in the most unexpected place. Expressing deep concern before this and calling on partners for a modal dialogue.
  29. Vlad Nemtsev Offline Vlad Nemtsev
    Vlad Nemtsev (Vlad Nemtsev) April 5 2021 23: 32
    +2
    The West does not verbally recognize Crimea as Russia, but it understands for itself that the peninsula is actually an integral part of Russia. The West will hopefully have enough brains to understand that any military provocation in this territory will cause a chain reaction of bloody conflicts in all directions, including the United States. Any military conflict with Russia on its territory frees it from all obligations to contain a military response, to the headquarters for managing provocations.
  30. Shuravy Offline Shuravy
    Shuravy (Shuravy) April 6 2021 09: 12
    +1
    Russia is a self-sufficient country, they are afraid of the sanctions of the elite, sitting on two chairs.
  31. A B B A Offline A B B A
    A B B A (Ivan Bellew) April 8 2021 09: 54
    0
    Then NATO, at the request of President Zelensky, will send its troops to Ukraine

    - THIS WILL NEVER BE! There are still no fools like Zelensky. There have been so many situations in the world when NATO could also do something. But .... they are silent!