The UK assessed the likelihood of a new war in Ukraine


Sarah Lain discusses the prospects for a resumption of the "hot" conflict in the Donbas on the website of the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research.


The author notes that the growth of tension and the exchange of strikes between Ukraine, on the one hand, and the DPR and LPR, on the other, continues to approach a dangerous level. This “surge in violence” is significant as it followed a period of calm.

While the ceasefire was never expected to be total, there is no doubt that tensions are mounting. […] The head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Denis Pushilin insisted especially loudly that Ukraine was planning to escalate the confrontation. [...] For his part, the head of the Ukrainian delegation Leonid Kravchuk regarded this as a possible sign of Russia's unilateral withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement

- the text says.

The expert does not exclude that the current rise in tension was, in general, inevitable. Earlier negotiations are predictably deadlocked. The positions of the parties remained unchanged, and no one planned to make concessions.

In addition, it is argued that increased tension may be associated with internal policies President Vladimir Zelensky. In particular, his actions against "pro-Russian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk."

There are many reports that both sides are strengthening their positions and increasing the number of weapons along the front line.

It is possible that this is part of a regular troop rotation, but the lack of context allows multiple interpretations and certainly raises concerns about the intentions of each side. However, when considering the possibility of a large-scale attack from either side, the events should be put in perspective.

- says Ms. Lane.

Nevertheless, all that is happening does not mean that Ukraine is again on the brink of a full-scale war: on March 27, the number of ceasefire violations in the Donetsk region decreased. Because of these constant fluctuations, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the trend. Moreover, the number of hassles may be higher around traditional hotspots.

For example, in the Luhansk region at the present time it is much quieter than in the Donetsk region, however, clashes are regularly observed in the Zolote region. This ambiguity makes it difficult to understand whether what is happening now is a movement towards escalation or not.

Yes, the situation in eastern Ukraine is clearly alarming, the author continues; nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that the escalation will remain local. Yes, both sides have incentives to accuse each other of wanting to start a fight. And yet the resumption of full-scale war would be very destructive for both.
  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
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  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 31 March 2021 09: 50
    +4
    Nevertheless, everything that happens does not mean that Ukraine is again on the verge of a full-scale war.

    Ukraine is now thinking hard (it has grabbed all the mind, all that is left) And it wants to and injects. Yes, and American shepherds drive with all their might to the slaughter, drawing sweet buns in case of victory. But disturbing thoughts wander in Ukraine, what if everything does not go as we dream? The guys from Donbass will chase us for the Dnieper and we will lose more than we have now.
    My advice to Ukraine.

    Do not wake your head until it's quiet
  2. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) 31 March 2021 10: 05
    +1
    also an option ... the budget is scheduled for a year and the heroes in the trenches will die from covid, tuberculosis and dysentery in a couple of months. you can earn extra money on this laughing diesel for faulty tanks and salaries for dead souls ...
  3. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 31 March 2021 11: 40
    +1
    The likelihood of a massacre in Britain is not great, although there is growing discontent in divided Irish families, and the deprived Scottish separatists, and discriminated it is difficult to draw conclusions about the trend in the ongoing riots.
    However, when considering the possibility of a large-scale attack from either side, you should look at the events in perspective.
    And at this point, I would also note ...