Korotchenko called the consequences of the partition of Ukraine along the Dnieper for Russia


If Russian troops enter eastern Ukraine and the country is divided along the Dnieper, the consequences for Russia, as well as for relations between Moscow and Washington, could be the most catastrophic. This opinion was expressed by the editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko on the air of the Ukraine.ru YouTube channel.


Russia will be able to solve the LPNR problem to some extent, as well as reach the borders of Transnistria, but otherwise a large-scale war in Europe does not bode well and means a sharp aggravation of relations with Western countries.

The SWIFT system will be disabled, Russian assets in the West will be blocked, there will be a variant of a full-scale cold war

- the expert noted, adding that the situation may develop according to the scenario of the Caribbean crisis of the early 60s of the last century.

Korotchenko believes that the Russian Federation should be ready for such a development of the situation, and it is necessary to calculate the possible steps of the opposing side, initiate the creation of new alliances and solve the resulting economic Problems.

The analyst also believes that the likelihood of an offensive by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on militia units is very possible, while deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States plays a large negative role.

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  1. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 26 March 2021 12: 44
    -1
    Libyan troops were crushed without NATO troops entering the territory of Libya, under the pretext that a mass extermination of the population in some enclave of Libya might take place ...

    Our ground forces have nothing to do in Ukraine until its population itself wants and starts to restore order.

    And the appearance of NATO troops in Ukraine, and this should have been declared long ago that this is an analogue of the Cuban missile crisis ...
    1. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
      Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 26 March 2021 12: 49
      +3
      There were NATO special forces, a "closed skies" regime was introduced and NATO air strikes when Gaddafi's units began to siege Misrata and put pressure on the rebels
    2. Just a cat Online Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 26 March 2021 15: 01
      +1
      for a thousand years, these baboons did not want anything and did not build their state, and then suddenly they find an insight? they are waiting for someone to post them and then kiss them.
    3. Vladimir Lendenev (Vladimir Lendenev) 7 May 2021 16: 09
      0
      who will declare, Lavrovsky mid - you yourself are not funny?
  2. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 26 March 2021 12: 56
    +11
    The SWIFT system will be disabled, Russian assets in the West will be blocked, there will be a variant of a full-scale cold war

    This is all, of course, terrible. But why doesn't Korotchenko calculate the options for Europe? All of the above means a full-scale economic war. So, deliveries to Europe have been completely stopped. All European assets in Russia are blocked. The supplies of aluminum, titanium, oil, gas, timber and a host of other items have been stopped. Gas transit has been stopped and the maintenance of half of Ukraine falls entirely on the shoulders of the EU. The transit from China has been terminated.
    Of course, there is nothing good about it. But who will be worse is still unknown.
    1. GRF Offline GRF
      GRF 26 March 2021 14: 25
      +5
      The first thing that was almost completely destroyed during the collapse of the USSR was the fleet. Because the fleet controls trade routes, which makes it possible to realize: "ah, don't buy from us, then don't buy from anyone." How many tankers are not allowed to Venezuela? Therefore, the Anglo-Saxons are outraged by any trade routes not under their control.
      We need to rebuild the fleet and then fewer people will support sanctions. Or stop being ashamed of destroying someone else's non-friendly infrastructure on land. Sanctions are war. The West considers us an aggressor and does not want to be friends, I think when we become, then it will want ...
      1. Bakht Online Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 26 March 2021 14: 27
        0
        Did the Soviet Fleet control sea trade routes?
        1. GRF Offline GRF
          GRF 26 March 2021 14: 42
          +5
          Yes, protecting allies, but how could it be otherwise. There was always a grouping larger than the current one in the Indian Ocean, in the Mediterranean Sea on a permanent basis.
          And he even freed Soviet citizens from prison with a hint of a missile strike ...
          Piracy is something that the Anglo-Saxons have been practicing since time immemorial ...
          1. Bakht Online Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 26 March 2021 15: 16
            +1
            Presence and control are slightly different things. Trade routes have always been controlled by the Anglo-Saxons, it seems to me
            1. GRF Offline GRF
              GRF 26 March 2021 17: 47
              +1
              The NSR is not currently controlled by the Anglo-Saxons, although they are present.
              The missiles were delivered to Cuba without demand, i.e. the Anglo-Saxons were present, but not in control under their noses.
              Chersky was accompanied by Russian warships, probably to neutralize control. Although I do not argue, on the canals and straits of the Anglo-Saxons without massacre, you can't move ...
              1. Bakht Online Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 26 March 2021 20: 25
                +4
                The NSR is not yet a run-in path. One-time operations do not solve anything.
                The sea power of a state consists of the following components: a strong merchant fleet, a strong military fleet, a deployed base across the world, and port infrastructure.
                According to the Gorshkov doctrine, the USSR deployed OPESK in certain regions. The most famous is 5 OPESK. But it was very far from the control over sea traffic. The task of OPESK was to control the US aircraft carrier groups within the framework of the "fleet against fleet" concept. But not control over sea trade routes. For example. How the British controlled the way to India (the pearl of the British crown). Of course a strong fleet. But also .... Gibraltar-Malta-Alexandria-Suez-Aden. It was worth neutralizing Malta for a while and the path was covered with a copper basin. Regardless of the number of ships and the strength of the British Navy.
                It is generally accepted that the Soviet Navy during the Gorshkov era was incredibly strong. Yes, there were many ships. But the number of ships does not make the fleet. As the saying goes, "three thousand ships and a million sailors, this is not a fleet."
                1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
                  Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 22: 49
                  0
                  It is generally accepted that the Soviet Navy during the Gorshkov era was incredibly strong. Yes, there were many ships. But the number of ships does not make the fleet. As the saying goes, "three thousand ships and a million sailors, this is not a fleet."

                  You are right, but on this topic you will get so many bumps. winked
                  After all, people love to see a beautiful front picture, but MTO there is of little interest to them.
                  Not to mention everything else ..
                2. GRF Offline GRF
                  GRF 27 March 2021 06: 30
                  +2
                  Well, as not run-in, it is already being used, intensively or not, another question.
                  This isn't the fleet? Yes, even one submarine is a fleet capable of putting all NATO on its ears. The power of the state is made up of the readiness to use force. But how to apply it when there is a strong state in the world that, with the help of Hollywood, made itself excessively strong, endowing itself with police powers, that is, they are ready to use and use force according to all their doctrines, and we were not so much scared as deceived. And when we were forced to demonstrate our readiness to use force, after that we immediately became aggressors and are now trying with all our might to turn everything back, to isolate, because this demonstrated the whole zil of excessiveness. And they like to steer.
                  The Americans told the enslaved Japanese not to sell composites to us, and they stopped, but would they stop if they knew that after that they would not be able to trade with anyone, because their goods would be drowned? Of course, this is an old, uncivilized method, but effective as long as there is a hegemon. Why don't we use it, probably because we want to live, we equip ourselves, we accumulate strength, we rebuild the fleet, import substitution, i.e. we self-develop, and maybe that itself will change with the decrepitude of the hegemon, for example, there will be a payment system of its own, or more than 50 new states, but sooner or later we will still be, because otherwise our interests are not interesting to others ...
                  1. Bakht Online Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 27 March 2021 10: 53
                    +2
                    The question was posed initially: did the USSR Fleet control sea trade routes? The answer is negative. The Gorshkov doctrine implied a strong nuclear submarine fleet (as part of the strategic triad) and surface ships equipped with missile weapons (according to the principle "we have no aircraft carriers and you will not have"). Hence the creation of OPESK. Neither one nor the other implies control over shipping.
                    You gave the example of Chersky. This just speaks of a lack of control. If for escorting 1 civilian vessel it was necessary to equip a convoy, to hide from observation, then how many transports will Russia be able to conduct, say, in 5-6 ports? The same goes for Cuba. A one-time operation carried out at the limit of strength and capabilities indicates a lack of control.
                    One more example. England was able to conduct a landing operation thousands of miles from the metropolis (Falklands). Could such an operation be carried out by the Soviet Navy? And they carried it out because they had strong logistical support. The same supply ships that helped the Americans in the Pacific during the war. In the absence of such, the Japanese created the Tokyo Express and lost the Battle of Guadalcanal.
                    Another comparison from modern times. China has three aircraft carriers and is building at the same time 7 or 11. It has the second largest fleet. But the task for the Chinese Navy is very minimal. Ensure freedom of navigation in the near zone. Ideally, from Sakhalin to the Strait of Malacca. China plans to enter the World Ocean only by 2050. Of course, they are Stakhanovites and can complete the task earlier, but even the presence of aircraft carriers does not allow them to control the world's transport arteries. We need bases and China is actively involved in this.
                    Yes, in theory it would be nice to have a strong fleet. But all at once does not work out. The West could afford a specification for the types of aircraft. The USSR had to develop all directions at the same time.
                    Main sources of my findings
                    Gorshkov "Sea Power of the State"
                    Roskilde "Flag of St. George"
                    And works on geopolitics from Mackinder and Haushofer to the present day.
                    1. GRF Offline GRF
                      GRF 27 March 2021 12: 32
                      0
                      The Navy has always exercised and will continue to exercise control over the activities of the Navy of foreign states, the protection of its own and allied ships, and the display of the flag in any operationally important areas of the oceans.
                      Therefore, the answer is yes, this is one of his main tasks.
    2. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 26 March 2021 14: 36
      +4
      Quote: Bakht
      But who will be worse is still unknown.

      In the United States itself, they have not seen war for more than 150 years, but all over the world they were able to organize bloody massacres in almost fifty countries, including the atomic bombings of Japan, so they relaxed a little, living in the world of American democracy, which they created only for themselves. and for other countries it is completely different - on bayonets and Tomahawks, but in the last war alone we lost more than 27 million people, after which we lived both in hunger and in the cold, gradually rebuilding our country from beams and dugouts to the first "Khrushchev" , etc., so that we no longer get used to living in times of hard times, and I am quite in favor of reviving the complete "iron curtain" again, and thereby preserving our country until it was pulled apart in pieces, as they did with our USSR. And the LDNR is high time to recognize within its pre-war borders, and to force Ukraine to peace, declaring it in genocide and the destruction of the people of Donbass, and Shoigu has long been ready for this, and the Americans will not even have time to sneeze, as the entire southeast will be under our control, and maybe even Kiev ... And I say again that there is no such idiot in the world, not even Biden, who will go to confrontation with nuclear Russia because of some kind of Ukraine, and as soon as we cross their border , there most of the "horses" will instantly change their shoes, and they will shout-Putin is our president ..... Enough, enough to curry favor with America, now the question is about the life or death of our state, so now we have no time for European curtsies, but with a boot on the podium with "Kuzka's mother".
      1. Dmpv Offline Dmpv
        Dmpv (Dmitry Pavlov) 30 March 2021 11: 11
        0
        will see soon
    3. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 27 March 2021 04: 38
      0
      Russia's participation in the war in Ukraine is very important for the United States-Britain. To weaken
      and the subordination of Germany-EU. World War II in Europe - was needed
      for this. The US-Britain NEEDS any war in Europe with the participation of Russia.
      A simultaneous blow to the Russian economy and the complete dependence of Germany-EU.
      Unfortunately, this is all simple and win-win for them.
      1. sd000016 Offline sd000016
        sd000016 (Alexander) 31 March 2021 09: 50
        +1
        For the United States, throw a wedge everywhere. Old Europe sees its future in Eurasia, here they have great prospects, and the United States has already won back opportunities and no prospects for the future, while the new Europe, in the form of Poland and Romania, naturally does not count. Therefore, continental Europe will not fight for the interests of the Anglo-Saxons.
        In addition, the United States faces a war with China over Taiwan, which, in principle, they cannot win. The damage to the reputation will be monstrous. The current economic, scientific, technical and military potential of the United States does not allow hoping for superiority, especially in the next 10 years, especially given the internal instability in the United States itself, after which China will no longer be in the reach of the United States in the military field. They will not be able to use nuclear weapons against China now, Russia will not allow. As a result, at least South Korea will soon come out from under the wing of the Americans, it is more profitable and safer for them to cooperate with China and Russia, in addition, Korea will then be able to unite, which is now being hindered by the United States. The war poses a great danger to Britain, since its entire territory is accessible to our supersonic missiles (even non-nuclear missiles will suffice) which it cannot intercept and which in the blink of an eye will multiply its military potential by zero. The only nuclear-powered submarines can avoid instant zeroing, but they are unlikely to dare to shoot at Russia with atomic charges, but their tomogavki, we are not afraid, as Syria showed.
  3. wolf46 Offline wolf46
    wolf46 26 March 2021 13: 00
    +2
    After the words

    In the event of the entry of Russian troops into the east of Ukraine

    further empty chatter. Plus the odious figure of the expert Korotchenko.
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 26 March 2021 13: 46
    +1
    And this is the crown style of the ruling power. They haven't done anything yet, but they are already scared! Therefore, let it go as it goes. Mediocrity!
    1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) 26 March 2021 22: 23
      +4
      I join. Korotchenko voices what is in the corridors of today's Kremlin. He overheard, sniffed, then "came out" with his chest at the ready. In a word, with such a mood to defend - just wait for defeat ... Only on this and did he start. As well as others, choking with puppy delight from the caught pen. Already completely crazy ...
    2. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 23: 02
      +3
      And this is the crown style of the ruling power. They have not done anything yet, but they are already scared! Therefore, let it go as it goes. Mediocrity

      The Soviet power surrendered Crimea to Ukraine.
      Russian returned.

      Why did the Soviet government inflate the Ukrainian SSR for many years ??
      Why did she give the Ukrainian SSR the region where the Ukrainians were a national minority?
      1. Dart2027 Offline Dart2027
        Dart2027 27 March 2021 10: 09
        0
        Quote: Ulysses
        Why did she give the Ukrainian SSR the region where the Ukrainians were a national minority?

        Why did she create the Ukrainian SSR at all?
        1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
          Ulysses (Alexey) 27 March 2021 20: 54
          +4
          Why did she create the Ukrainian SSR at all?

          Lenin's national policy.
      2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
        steelmaker 27 March 2021 12: 44
        0
        The Soviet power surrendered Crimea to Ukraine.

        You need to have a snack. Have you forgotten about EBN? And if Putin is so correct, why doesn't he return the Russian lands to the end? Moreover, the people insist on this (Donbass)!
  5. margo Offline margo
    margo (margo) 26 March 2021 14: 53
    +1
    Korotchenko named

    is it possible that someone else is listening to this schizophrenic?
  6. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 26 March 2021 15: 24
    +5
    that the situation may develop according to the scenario of the Caribbean crisis of the early 60s

    I disagree with the author. Not one sane politician in the West, even in his wildest fantasies, will not risk New York, London, Washington for the sake of Dnepropetrovsk or Kiev. ... The only thing that will happen is that Russia will receive all the sanctions at once ... This is where it all ends.
    1. Valera75 Offline Valera75
      Valera75 (Valery Bogatov) 26 March 2021 16: 07
      +3
      The author has a panic about something that has not even happened yet and is sure it will not happen. I agree, the maximum is a wild screeching from the West at Russia's action and a bunch of sanctions, and the sanctions are essentially more useless. SP-2 is not even touched. Competitive goods from Germany and warmth in the house are more important for the Germans than the Bandera government in the Independent
    2. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 23: 18
      +3
      Not one sane politician in the West, even in his wildest fantasies, will not risk New York, London, Washington for the sake of Dnepropetrovsk or Kiev. ...

      Um.
      Name the sane politicians of the present West to me and I will believe you.
      We can start with the chief politician Biden.
      I have great doubts about his sanity. sad

      PS Merkel has pricked up her skis here.
      "I'm leaving, you have gotten me all."
      The political field of the "West" is now represented by a conditionally capable US president and US-controlled commissioners from Brussels.

      Anything can be expected from this company, including collective suicide.
  7. grysha Offline grysha
    grysha (A.M) 26 March 2021 15: 54
    -11%
    Quote: Dust
    even in his wildest fantasies, he will not risk New York, London, Washington for the sake of Dnepropetrovsk or Kiev.

    If you climb into Ukraine and there will be casualties among the civilian population, you will immediately receive a missile strike, for example, on Rostov or Belgorod, what is the prospect, and then you can yell that Ukraine is a "fascist" state. And then, Putin will have to use atomic weapons? Well, let him try ...
    1. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 26 March 2021 19: 25
      +2
      Quote: grysha
      you will immediately get a rocket

      And this is what you will hit on Rostov and Belgorod, do you have such a "hitter"?

      Quote: grysha
      Will Putin have to use atomic weapons? Well, let him try.

      So it's easy, only tactical, for some reason, the Yankees could bomb the nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but we can't pull through Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk, and what do you think it will rust behind us? No, my dear, this is where the war will go not for life, but for death, and you, as inhumans, need to be destroyed without any shadow of a doubt, and I tell you this, who lived in Gorlovka for two and a half years under your brutal shelling of peaceful cities and the villages of Donbass, in which peaceful women, old people and children died., and I have already seen enough of this horror there is enough ... These are not miners and metallurgists who came to kill you in Lviv and Ternopil with weapons in their hands, but you pressed to them to the Donbass on tanks and planes, and have already killed more than 15 thousand people ... You saw how the shrapnel of your mines blew off the head of a peaceful woman standing at the bus stop, or tore off people's arms and legs, you saw the fragments of your mines and shells children's little bodies, I don’t want to list everything, it’s just scary, but you don’t understand this, you, with the brains of the nationalists-Bandera.
      1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
        Kofesan (Valery) 26 March 2021 22: 30
        +2
        Wunderwaffle and shushpants! In this, Ukrainians are ahead of the rest!

    2. Dust Offline Dust
      Dust (Sergei) 26 March 2021 20: 21
      +4
      You must pray that Putin is in power in Russia! He is very kind to your Bender government!) Be in the place of his man like Volodin, you have long been destroyed and rolled into concrete somewhere near Kharkov ...
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 23: 24
      +2
      If you climb into Ukraine and there will be casualties among the civilian population, you will immediately receive a missile strike, for example, on Rostov or Belgorod

      You have nothing to strike a blow with.
      Unless you tie Zelensky's personal belongings to the great Ukrainian slingshot, and even then they will not reach.
    5. Vladimir Lendenev (Vladimir Lendenev) 7 May 2021 16: 18
      0
      After strikes on Belgorod and Rostov, retaliatory nuclear strikes by Russia will be inevitable - this is written in the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation
  8. bzbo Offline bzbo
    bzbo (Black doctor) 26 March 2021 20: 41
    +1
    Kiev in which 5 million loafers are crammed and zero production is not needed and let Poland take it for nothing
  9. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 26 March 2021 22: 30
    +1
    thanks to such iksperds and advisers like Surkov, Donbass has been hanging out between heaven and earth for 7 years
    1. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) 26 March 2021 23: 09
      0
      They do not decide. They only justify what is taken individually ...
  10. Sergey Demin_2 Offline Sergey Demin_2
    Sergey Demin_2 (Sergey Dyomin) 27 March 2021 08: 02
    +1
    The SWIFT system will be disabled, and Russian assets in the West will be blocked.

    So what ? but will it be different? we will even surrender the DPR and LPR, we will surrender the Crimea, there will still be sanctions, and they began long before Crimea, in my opinion, in 2012 they already began to introduce them for the persecution of homosexuals, so sanctions were and will be, the existence of the West is at stake and Russia is an obstacle in its path
  11. oracul Offline oracul
    oracul (leonid) 27 March 2021 08: 35
    +1
    The material presented is a matter of interpretations. For example, I understand that Korotchenko's concern is not dictated by fear, but by the desire to make sure that Russia presents what risks and threats arise and is preparing a worthy response.
  12. mikhail.rybakov2017 (mikhail rybakov) 27 March 2021 10: 21
    -1
    Something I do not like this Korotchenko, claiming to be an analyst. The all-consuming man.
  13. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
    assault 2019 (assault 2019) 27 March 2021 10: 33
    +2
    And Korotchenko is not a "khokhol" case, if he intimidates us with all sorts of sanctions ....
    It's their style ...
  14. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 27 March 2021 13: 13
    -1
    Korotchenko is the new Gorbachev !!!! Already begins to work out the brains that everything will be bad in short now they will surrender Russia finally Ukraine was a rehearsal for the destruction of the Russian-Soviet heritage of the USSR, everything was lost !!!!!
  15. Netyn Offline Netyn
    Netyn (Netyn) 27 March 2021 13: 54
    +1
    Quote: Ulysses
    You have nothing to strike a blow with.

    You are wrong, remember, the Banderlog built a catapult on the Maidan - they can repeat it
  16. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 27 March 2021 17: 38
    -1
    Donbass betrayal is cheaper, and they can even let the owner's shoe kiss. And even then the consequences will be catastrophic: patriots may not be allowed to go to their real homeland, and then there are families, money, etc., etc.
  17. Igor Lyamin Offline Igor Lyamin
    Igor Lyamin (Igor Lyamin) 28 March 2021 06: 08
    0
    How can you live without brains? Ask Korotchenko. First, sanctions will still be introduced, and the Cold War is in full swing. What then is the meaningless set of phrases of this "smart guy"?
    1. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
      Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 29 March 2021 16: 54
      0
      Will be entered if ..
      Until 2014, there were no sanctions.
      Further: at some point in the Union they renounced political assassinations of “enemies” abroad. Realizing that such actions give much more losses than benefits.
      Logic, the cause should never be put before the effect.
  18. nov_tech.vrn Offline nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn (Michael) 29 March 2021 16: 50
    0
    Who is talking about the border along the Dnieper? The border runs along the western Bug and Danube, and the disaffected will plant trees in the Carpathians and restore the environment.
  19. Alexey Sergeev Offline Alexey Sergeev
    Alexey Sergeev (Alexey Sergeev) 29 March 2021 16: 51
    0
    initiate the creation of new alliances

    A number of agreements have already been signed with countries like Vanuatu and Sierra Lyone. For example, about the non-proliferation of weapons in space.
  20. Dmpv Offline Dmpv
    Dmpv (Dmitry Pavlov) 30 March 2021 11: 10
    0
    The scenario can be any, but what does the Ukrainian authorities and Ukraine have to do with it, who are trying to pretend that they mean something in this world?))) No one will ask Ukraine, they will tell her what she must do and how a circus dog wagging its tail will perform teams of their masters
  21. Friend of the People_2 (Kirill Vetrov) 31 March 2021 20: 39
    0
    Completely indifferent to the United States. Poke around - we will fuck and on them.
  22. Mikhail Alekseev (Mikhail Alekseev) 20 May 2021 10: 38
    0
    It will be necessary to resolve the issue with Ukraine sooner or later. If Korotchenko believes that Ukraine will become a non-aligned, neutral and friendly country towards Russia, then he is simply a fool. Therefore, the division and destruction of Bandera's Ukraine is vital for Russia! The only question is when to carry out this procedure - if later it will be much worse for Russia. And the question of Swift, sanctions and other things is nonsense. The West can impose sanctions against Russia for any reason - it will not need some reason like the partition of Ukraine. And no one in the West will lose the huge Russian market and energy supplier at a loss for a long time. Even with the Iron Curtain under the USSR, trade with the West did not stop - and it will not be here either. Of course they will ponder for a while, and then everything will return to normal