Will Russia and China start a clash with the United States by leaving SWIFT?


With all the attention that was paid in the domestic and world media to the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to China, it seems that this event has so far been meaningful and far from fully appreciated. It is quite possible that it was in the process of the talks held in Beijing between the head of our diplomacy and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that the very “new era” was launched, the anticipation of which the whole world lives today. Or, at least, the last step has been taken towards its beginning. In any case, the document adopted as a result of them directly speaks of "global governance." And it is perfectly understandable that both the Russian and Chinese sides see such centers not at all in Washington or Brussels.


Moreover, during the final press conference from the lips of Lavrov sounded not only the usual and even obligatory for such events, assurances of cordial friendship to the host country and words about "enormous prospects for cooperation" with her. Something very specific and very important was said. Namely, the direction in which Moscow and Beijing intend to give the United States the first serious "battle" was announced.

Does SWIFT just sound proud?


In this case, of course, this is about the statement of Sergei Viktorovich, where he directly points to "the need to reduce sanctions risks by abandoning the dollar in interstate settlements and avoiding the use of payment systems controlled by the West." In this case, there could be only one such system - SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). There have been so many talks in recent years that "excommunication" or, simply put, disconnection of our country from it will become "the final act of Western sanctions" in recent years. Unfortunately, many of them were openly speculative and aimed to generate panic about such a step by our "sworn friends". Some tried to present the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT as almost the end of the world - at least in economic terms. In fact, this is not the case at all.

First of all, we are not talking about “complete financial isolation of our country from the whole world”, as some “smart people” claim, but just about depriving it of the opportunity to use the most developed and generally accepted system of exchange of banking information and payments. Yes, it is considered the safest, most reliable, fastest ... But - among many others. SWIFT is not at all a unique tool, which cannot be replaced in principle. Yes, the blow to the domestic financial system will be quite tangible. However, it is by no means fatal. Today the only country in the world against which the "world community" has taken such a step is Iran. And even then, in his case, only half of the banks were “cut off” from SWIFT. Only in Iran at that time there were three dozen of them, and in our country the number of them exceeds eight hundred.

Another extremely significant point is that blocking access to this system will, in fact, be the last step that the “collective West” can take against Russia without officially declaring war on it. Thus, the arsenal of "levers of influence" on Moscow will be exhausted, because the next item on the list of methods of "coercion into democracy" is the delivery of missile and bomb strikes. It is doubtful that they would go for such a thing even in the conditions of the current aggravation. Another important thing is that SWIFT has the strongest dependence on the United States solely due to the fact that the vast majority of settlements in it are made in US dollars. In fact, this is a European system with headquarters in Belgium. That is, Washington cannot de jure directly order its leadership. And to be honest, just for the countries of the European Union such a step would not even be the notorious "shot in the leg", but sheer suicide.

Suppose that one day, far from being a fine day, a decision to block Russia's access to SWIFT will still be made. And what do you want to do with the payments for the same energy carriers ?! They will not be supplied to the European Union for nothing or in debt to the European Union, which has "thrown" its partners so abruptly. Not to pay with "cash" with suitcases! In such a case, those countries of the Old World who do not have a suicidal desire to freeze to death in the name of the triumph of world democracy will have to pay for our deliveries using the Russian Financial Messaging System (SPFS). Not in dollars, but in euros - that's even better. The SPFS was developed and implemented at the very beginning of the "sanctions rage" that swept the West, in 2014 and is working quite well. So far, mainly the EAEU member countries are connected to it. However, banks in Germany and Switzerland also work with it - more than 11 thousand financial organizations in total. As of the beginning of this year, SPFS within Russia has already reached a volume of one fifth of SWIFT traffic. If the alternative to its use is in the form of a complete refusal economic ties with our country, the Europeans will "catch up" too. Fortunately, this is not a problem.

The time has come?


In fact, disconnecting Russia from SWIFT will not mean "isolation" at all. Transactions will take longer, they will rise in price, financial "chains" will become longer and more complex, but the world will not collapse. However, this is in the event that the initiative in this matter comes from our Western "partners". And if from our country? If we ourselves refuse to use the system controlled by the de facto unfriendly states? This will certainly not be easy to do. Discussions about the urgent need to “de-dollarize” the world economy have been heard for a long time, and not only in our country. At the same time, earlier all financial experts agreed that if such a process goes on, then everything within its framework will be very "slow".

Now the situation has changed dramatically and it is not so much a matter of Moscow's intentions as of a very serious adjustment of Beijing's position. Let's not be cunning - Russia alone is not yet able to fight against dollar hegemony. And even an alliance with Iran, Turkey and other countries that cannot live from American sanctions, and who sleep and see how to get rid of them once and for all, will not significantly change the balance of power in this confrontation. China is a completely different matter. The strongest economy in the world, the largest trading partner of the absolute majority of states on the planet (including the United States). With a strong desire, the Celestial Empire may well put an end to the "dollar era". Another question is that its leaders did not have such a desire until now. The Chinese are a non-conflict people, accustomed to professing the principle of softness and slowness, and at the same time, excuse me, striving to sit simultaneously not even on two, but on as many chairs as possible.

But right now these chairs began to rapidly crawl to the sides, carrying the risk of a rather hard and painful fall to the Chinese comrades. Beijing hoped that with the change of the White House owner, the “trade war” with the United States, senseless and exhausting for the economies of both countries, would end. The meeting in Anchorage, which caused a stir all over the world, showed that under Biden, the Americans not only are not going to give up their attempts to crush the PRC with the help of sanctions, but also intend to "teach it democracy", publicly defaming and scolding, like boys, representatives of the upper echelon the diplomatic corps of this country. The sharp outburst of emotions of the usually extremely restrained Chinese diplomats during the summit that ended in a complete fiasco in Alaska shows that such a turn was a surprise for them, and very unpleasant.

The next "surprise" of the same kind can be considered the introduction by the European Union of sanctions against a number of Beijing officials for alleged "wrong" actions in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Blindly following in the wake of Washington, Brussels thus rudely and imprudently got into purely internal Chinese affairs, which aroused the understandable anger of the Celestial Empire, which hoped that at least among the Europeans pragmatism would prevail over the agenda imposed on them from across the ocean, which had nothing to do with their interests. As it turned out, in vain. Even a country with the most pacifist views can be persuaded that there is no point in settling matters peacefully. The "Collective West" in relation to China has made tremendous efforts in this direction. Congratulations - everything worked out. Beijing today is very belligerent and no longer inclined to concessions and compromises.

I will not overload my story with statistical calculations and other figures. Moreover, anyone can easily find data on what share of global trade accounts for operations with the participation of the Celestial Empire. She does not need to make any dramatic gestures to mark her "break with Western financial institutions" - just declare her unwillingness to sell or buy anything for dollars. Do you think this will strongly stop Saudi Arabia, which dreams of supplying its oil to China with millions of barrels, or Qatar, which recently signed an agreement with Beijing on the supply of 2 million tons of LNG annually? They will trade for yuan, how cute. Will Europe balk? Well, let's see how they do it. I remember that at the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, when the disease was fought back in China itself, automobile factories stood up all over the world - they lacked something there. Either some wiring, or a relay, or something else that is done exclusively in the Middle Kingdom. The West itself has for decades created its dependence on China - technological, trade, and subsequently financial. Without Chinese supplies of a wide variety of things - from components and assemblies for their own equipment to the most common consumer goods, the same Europe will not be able to live in the same way as without Russian energy resources.

In principle, the same SWIFT can not be abandoned - it will be enough just to "clear" the bulk of transactions carried out through it from being tied to cut American paper. Sergei Lavrov's words can be interpreted in this vein. On the other hand, if we take seriously the talks about "global governance in modern conditions" that were held in Beijing with his participation, then the new world, which Moscow and Beijing can and should begin to shape right now, will need new global systems. Financial - including.
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  1. Dear sofa expert. 26 March 2021 12: 08
    +6
    No one will ever disconnect China and Russia from SWIFT.

    Today SWIFT is No. 1 of the world's payment systems.

    Firstly, the cash flows through SWIFT are controlled by the Americans. To exclude such major players from this system would automatically mean the loss of this control.
    It is no coincidence that the Europeans switched from 2016 to their own SEPA in order to reduce their dependence on the Americans.

    Secondly, the SWIFT system will hardly be able to retain this “palm” if other payment systems of guarantee are forced into the race (and judging by the “sentiments” this is already happening). For example, Russian: System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) or Chinese: Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which are quite compatible with any other systems (with the same SEPA).

    Well, and how the "Sword of Damocles" hovered over SWIFT, the so-called blockchain technologies, which in general, apparently, will become a "control shot" in the head of banking systems in principle.

    Everything goes to this.
    1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 March 2021 23: 49
      +1
      1. At the same time, the PRC and the Russian Federation will not be disconnected from SWIFT, the first candidate, the Russian Federation, will also deal with each one, in view of the scanty trade relations with the United States.
      2. Control over SWIFT will not be lost to anyone, only the volume and amount of transactions will decrease uncritically.
      3. The transfer of settlements from the EU to the Russian system of transferring financial messages or the Russian Federation to the European system is the height of imagination, especially against the background of a complete rupture of relations, as stated the other day by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov.
      4. Blockchain technologies are being introduced everywhere - in China, the USA, the EU, the Russian Federation, and this technology is not a panacea, as it seems to ordinary people. Not so long ago, Vladimir Putin said that the Russian Federation has technologies to control blockchain operations, which means that others have or will have similar ones.
      5. Digital Renminbi is successfully tested in several provinces and metropolitan areas of the PRC, and after the Olympics it will be the official currency. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the ECB, the US Federal Reserve Joint Stock Company are working on this issue and there is no doubt about a positive decision.
      1. Dear sofa expert. 27 March 2021 01: 34
        +3
        1. At the same time, the PRC and the Russian Federation will not be disconnected from SWIFT, the first candidate, the Russian Federation, will also deal with each one, in view of the scanty trade relations with the United States.

        Moreover, it is not profitable for the Americans. Russia (because of the "scanty") it will be like an elephant grain. And with Europe, Russia will conduct settlements through their SEPA. Only the Americans will no longer be able to control this.

        2. Control over SWIFT will not be lost to anyone, only the volume and amount of transactions will decrease uncritically.

        Control over "SWIFT" is not needed. It is through SWIFT that they exercise this control.

        3. The transfer of settlements from the EU to the Russian system for the transmission of financial messages or the Russian Federation to the European system is the height of imagination, especially against the background of a complete breakdown in relations, as the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the other day

        How to make calculations? With Europe, the volume of trade is not small. Yes, and there are enough mutual assets on both sides.

        4. Blockchain technologies are being introduced everywhere - in China, the USA, the EU, the Russian Federation, and this technology is not a panacea, as it seems to ordinary people. Not so long ago, Vladimir Putin said that the Russian Federation has technologies to control blockchain operations, which means that others have or will have similar ones.

        I would like to hear what kind of Blockchain control technologies exist?)

        Blockchain is a self-control system. Only if in banking systems, mutual guarantee services are performed by very specific legal entities (banks), then in the "blockchain" this is done by a network of anonymous computers.
        1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
          Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 27 March 2021 11: 14
          +1
          The official declaration of the Russian Federation as a strategic enemy implies the task of destroying it, and any means are suitable for this.
          Unlike the PRC, the meager trade turnover with the United States frees their hands and does not cause much damage. The elephant will not even notice this pellet.
          There are many and different options. For example, they will seize gold and foreign exchange reserves and other assets of the Russian Federation abroad and deduct their share with interest from them.
          If, in response, the Russian Federation blocks the supply of oil and gas raw materials, the basis of trade with the EU, then the United States and OPEC will only be happy about this, and they will also demand a penalty for breach of obligations, damage suffered, lost profits, etc.
          The ruble will fall at times, galloping inflation, capital flight, investment - zero, the NWF will melt like summer snow, the economy is in the red and all the accompanying charms.
          The EU is on a short leash and therefore the US will not allow uncoordinated actions, this is clear. Blockchain was mentioned among other things, I can't say at what event, but more recently, this year.
          1. Dear sofa expert. 27 March 2021 11: 59
            +5
            There are many and different options. For example, they will seize gold and foreign exchange reserves and other assets of the Russian Federation abroad and deduct their share with interest from them.

            The gold and foreign exchange reserve of Russia is located in Russia. Who, and what "share with interest will be deducted"?

            “Other assets” (you mean those located abroad) can be arrested, but with the risk that foreign assets in Russia will suffer the same fate. And there are more of them in Russia than Russian ones abroad. The West understands that Russia has the right to retaliate if its assets are seized abroad by decision of international courts. A. Medvedev stated this directly back in 2015. And since the West values ​​its assets (in Russia), no one will be in a hurry to touch the Russian ones either.

            If, in response, the Russian Federation blocks the supply of oil and gas raw materials, the basis of trade with the EU, then the United States and OPEC will only be happy about this, and they will also demand a penalty for breach of obligations, damage suffered, lost profits, etc.

            What is the penalty ??? Finally decide: are you already "at war", or are you still in the "legal field"?)

            The EU is on a short leash and therefore the US will not allow uncoordinated actions, this is clear.

            Not so short as to start an open war against Russia to please the Americans. Resist as best they can.
            And the Americans, in turn, are not so stupid as to stay with Russia "nose to nose." The intestine is thin.

            Blockchain was mentioned by the way, I can't say at which event, but more recently, this year.

            Here you go.
            1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
              Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 27 March 2021 18: 56
              +1
              Uncle, gold and foreign exchange reserves are made up of foreign currency, special drawing rights (funds in the IMF), metallic gold and are intended for emergency spending, covering budget deficits, maintaining the ruble exchange rate, inflation targeting, etc.
              It is stored on Pravda street and in safe custody, possibly in foreign storage facilities.
              Iran, Venezuela, Libya - an example of the arrest of gold reserves and the deduction of the Schasovites from them their expenses for the establishment of "democracy" in these countries, but the freezing of accounts is a common thing, is practiced all over the world.
              1. Dear sofa expert. 27 March 2021 19: 39
                +5
                an example of the seizure of gold reserves and the deduction by the Sshasovites of their expenses for the establishment of "democracy" in these countries, but the freezing of accounts is a common thing, practiced all over the world.

                In this regard, I have already answered. I repeat:

                The West understands that Russia has the right to retaliate if its assets are seized abroad by decision of international courts. A. Medvedev stated this directly back in 2015.

                Russia also has something to arrest. If not American, then European assets in Russia are more than enough.

                Uncle, gold and foreign exchange reserves are made up of foreign currency, special drawing rights (funds in the IMF), metallic gold and are intended for emergency spending, covering budget deficits, maintaining the ruble exchange rate, inflation targeting, etc.

                Aunt, I google, and I can read Wikipedia just as well as yours, so don't bother yourself so mercilessly.)
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 26 March 2021 13: 26
    0
    I believe that the United States will not agree to this. They will lose more, and the Americans will not agree to that.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 March 2021 13: 56
    0
    1. A fight with the United States for withdrawing from SWIFT and abandoning the leading world currency today is not in the interests of either the PRC or the Russian Federation, because about 70% of payments are made in dollars and go through SWIFT.
    2. If the United States takes extreme measures and initiates the disconnection of the PRC and the Russian Federation from SWIFT, this will deal a tangible blow to the United States itself and especially to its allies.
    3. Stimulates the transition to reserve currencies - the Euro and Renminbi, the Russian Financial Messaging System (RFMS) and the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Their interconnection and transfer to a unified system, first of bilateral settlements, and then the EAEU, SCO, NShP, with the probable joining of many other states that dream of freeing themselves from the Sshasian diktat and sanctions.
    4. The statement by S.V. Lavrov about the need to reduce sanctions risks includes not only and not so much SWIFT, but the whole complex - currency, gold and foreign exchange reserves, securities, banks, stock exchanges, rating agencies and other financial instruments that make up the global financial system and without which any talk about a multipolar world is an empty shaking of the air.
  4. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 26 March 2021 14: 25
    0
    Tsar Peter the Great paid 2 million Efimoks for Ingermanlandia, Estlandia, part of Karelia and others, which amounted to about 56 tons of silver. Today, at the current exchange rate, $ 1 billion is equivalent to approximately 1244 tons of silver. Well, $ 100 billion - 124 thousand tons of silver. I must say that Peter bought the land cheap. But silver is money and can be obtained with funds from the NWF. New money can be issued for this silver.
  5. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 27 March 2021 04: 53
    +3
    Disconnection from the swift of Russia and / or China is possible only in one case, a direct military conflict. So all this verbiage and horror stories for the illiterate. Even during WWII, allied banks through Switzerland, Argentina and Brazil conducted trade operations with the Nazis. they hate to remember very much.
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 28 March 2021 13: 23
    0
    Disconnecting the Russian Federation from SWIFT, with the possible subsequent seizure of gold reserves, securities and the use of other financial instruments, will be tantamount to the transition of hostilities from the use of conventional weapons to nuclear ones.
    This will affect not only the Russian Federation, and therefore it is not possible to calculate all the consequences. The damage to the Russian Federation will be huge, but everyone will suffer losses.
    Judging by the reduction in the ratio of the dollar and US debt obligations, an increase in the share of Euro, Yen, Renminbi, an increase in the volume of monetary gold in the gold and foreign exchange reserves, it suggests that such a development of events in the Russian Federation does not exclude and, if possible, take some measures.
    The question is whether the Sshasovites will decide to unleash a full-scale financial war and how the rest of the world will behave.
    Due to the fact that the war on the financial front is gaining momentum and is far from over, it seems reasonable to include in the Security Council of the Russian Federation and the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, E.S. Nabiullina.
  7. margo Offline margo
    margo (margo) April 2 2021 16: 53
    0
    disconnecting Russia from SWIFT will not mean "isolation"

    - yes, I already have experience. Everyone remembers how, after a Russian bomber was shot down in a Turkish fighter jet and the imposition of sanctions by Russia against Turkish tomatoes, the Minsk airport was overloaded with Russian tourists who wanted to fly to Turkey on vacation.
    How, after the imposition of sanctions by Russia against Western countries, the so-called import substitution, Belarusian shrimps, mussels, olives, Parmesan from Kazakhstan, etc. began to be massively supplied to the country.
  8. Ben latin Offline Ben latin
    Ben latin (Valentine Latin) April 7 2021 12: 21
    0
    ... Americans are trying not to face the truth - the Russian system for transferring financial messages (SPFS) (STFM), which was created by the Russian Federation in 2014, has already overtaken the American SWIFT in popularity. Now, for example, Russia is conducting intensive negotiations to coordinate the operation of its system with regulators in China, Turkey, Syria and Iran. The direct consequences of disconnecting from the SWIFT system will affect only those who transfer money abroad directly from a bank account, or vice versa, accept money from abroad. Everything. The United States has nothing more in stock than it can infringe on Russia ("the mouse hangs itself in the refrigerator") ... In the future, it is necessary under no circumstances to let any dollar transactions into the new system ...