The Suez Indian Could Change All World Trade


On March 23, an emergency occurred, which in the future could have a serious impact on the entire world the economy... The Suez Canal, long considered the shortest waterway between Europe and Asia, was sealed off by one of the largest vessels in the world, the container ship Ever Given, which ran aground in it. How will all this affect the international trade in hydrocarbons and the shipment of containerized cargo from Asia to Europe?


Thanks to the construction of the canal, the Mediterranean and Red Seas were connected, and ships were able to directly get from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean, without skirting the African continent. Before launching it, it was necessary either to sail around Africa, or to unload and add overland transit to the logistic leg, and then again charter and load the ship. The length of the sea route was reduced by 8 thousand kilometers, and the delivery time of goods - by an average of 2 weeks. The economic significance of the Suez Canal for the entire world trade can hardly be overestimated. For a long time, his work was interrupted only during the Arab-Israeli wars. And now history threatens to repeat itself, but in peacetime.

To understand the scale of the disaster, you need to look at the numbers. The length of the canal is 160 kilometers, its width along the water surface is up to 350 meters, along the bottom - from 40 to 60 meters, and its depth is 20 meters. This transport artery is capable of passing vessels with a maximum width of up to 77,5 meters and a displacement of up to 240 tons. And now, at the 000st kilometer of the canal, one of the largest container ships in the world with a length of 101 meters, a width of 400 meters and a draft of 59 meters, was stuck with 15,7 thousand containers on board from China to Rotterdam under the Panamanian flag. According to the latest information, his pilot lost control due to difficult meteorological conditions, a sandstorm, accompanied by a strong wind. The huge ship ran aground, tightly sealing the Suez Canal, and even 20 tugs could not cope with the task, freeing it.

How can this “thrombus” be removed from the circulatory system of the world economy? First, it is necessary to somehow unload the aforementioned 20 thousand containers on an unequipped platform for this in order to lighten the vessel, and then wash out the sand under it. And experts are in no hurry to make optimistic forecasts, on the contrary. The head of Boskalis, Peter Berdowski, who is now trying to get the container ship aground, speaks not of days, but of weeks:

It cannot be ruled out that it will take weeks, it all depends on how the situation will develop. He is now like a huge whale washed ashore. There was a huge weight on the sand. We may need to combine different methods - removing containers, fuel and water from the vessel, using tugs and washing out the sand.

And it will be a cruel and very unexpected blow to the gut of all international trade, 12% of which passes through Suez. In addition to the notorious containers from Asia to Europe, about 600 thousand barrels of oil pass through the canal per day. At present, there are between 10 and 13 million barrels of oil "stuck in traffic", more than a tenth of the daily consumption of "black gold" worldwide. Qatari LNG is also supplied to the European market through this waterway. What will happen in the next 2-3 weeks, while specialists are hastily trying to unload and push the gigantic vessel from the shallows?

The ships will be forced to change their route, bypassing the Cape of Good Hope, which will lead to a delay in delivery. Owners of uncharted vessels will increase the value of their contracts. There is a shortage of hydrocarbons on the market, which will lead to an increase in their quotations. Oil has already grown significantly at once by 5%. The Europeans will have to print the stocks of raw materials in storage. Qatar will not be able to quickly ship its LNG to the EU market, and this will give an unexpected advantage to Russia's Novatek.

Perhaps, Russia is the most beneficial side of the emergency in Suez. And it's not just about the growth in the value of our main export goods, oil and gas. The unplanned blockage of the southern waterway makes the question of the need for an alternative extremely urgent. And it should be the Northern Sea Route. Much has already been said about its prospects: the polar ice is rapidly melting, vast expanses of water are rapidly liberating, and the distance between Europe and Asia is significantly shrinking. Earlier, the Kremlin set a goal to increase the volume of cargo traffic through the NSR to 80 million tons per year by 2024. Last year, these numbers were adjusted downward, to 50 million tons, amid coronavirus restrictions. But the Suez incident could change everything.

Yes, at once those giant container ships that usually go through Suez cannot be transferred to the Northern Sea Route. Now there is a seasonal high ice load, you cannot do without a nuclear icebreaker for escorting. The problem is that the dimensions of the huge vessels are larger than the icebreakers they must follow. The situation can be changed by launching an icebreaker of the Leader project, which is 209,2 meters long and 47,4 meters wide. This is already comparable in size, and the main thing is that the newest icebreaker will be able to operate even in winter. After that, the attractiveness of the Northern Sea Route in the eyes of the customers for shipping cargo will increase significantly.
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  1. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) 25 March 2021 16: 20
    -10%
    Maybe it won't.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 25 March 2021 16: 32
      +6
      How categorically laughing
      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) 25 March 2021 17: 01
        -10%
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        How categorically

        Nothing to write?
        In 1969 the Channel was blocked for years, and this is a matter of days.
        No need to inflate an elephant out of a fly.
        1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
          Kristallovich (Ruslan) 25 March 2021 17: 26
          +7
          Compare the level of human dependence on freight today and in 1969. In the 19th century, can you imagine, people somehow lived without aviation, but today it is simply impossible.
          1. Vladest Offline Vladest
            Vladest (Vladimir) 25 March 2021 23: 16
            -8
            Quote: Kristallovich
            Compare the level of human dependence on freight today and in 1969.

            And then humanity was already developed and traded to the fullest. There seemed to be a traffic jam until 1972. There was a war going on. Even with jet aircraft and tanks))) There were no chariots and elephants)))
            1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
              Kristallovich (Ruslan) 26 March 2021 09: 18
              +4
              And then humanity was already developed and traded to the fullest.

          2. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
            igor.igorev (Igor) 26 March 2021 11: 32
            -1
            Do you think that it is really impossible to live without aviation? There are other types of transport. Humanity has lived much longer without aviation than with it. And nothing evolved.
            1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
              Kristallovich (Ruslan) 26 March 2021 12: 09
              +3
              I don’t just think, I’m sure. Humanity has developed in one 20th century more than in all 19 previous ones combined.
              1. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
                igor.igorev (Igor) 29 March 2021 22: 40
                +1
                You are talking nonsense.
    2. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 25 March 2021 17: 27
      +8
      Labdien, it sounded like that in Riga. Well, why do you need Suez, tell your colleagues how things are now in the ports of Riga and Venstpils and what are the prospects.
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
    Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 25 March 2021 18: 14
    -10%
    The container ship is actually called "Evergreen."
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 25 March 2021 18: 43
      +5
      It is not called "Evergreen". Before hesitating, he had to make sure that his opinion was correct.
      1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 25 March 2021 23: 00
        -2
        Yes, the owner company is so called, I was mistaken.
  4. Let them carry them along the Northern Sea Route! There are wide straits!
  5. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 25 March 2021 22: 12
    +6
    A decent number of tankers crowded in front of Suez ..
    With all the consequences (oil has already added to the price tag)

    Superfluous confirmation of the advantages of oil and gas pipelines (if they do not go through unstable regions).
    Better at the bottom of the sea.
    winked
    1. Vladest Offline Vladest
      Vladest (Vladimir) 25 March 2021 23: 19
      -3
      Quote: Ulysses
      More evidence of the benefits of oil and gas pipelines

      Each type of transport has its own advantages. You cannot lay a pipe from the USA to the EU.
      1. Astronaut Offline Astronaut
        Astronaut (San Sanych) 26 March 2021 00: 42
        +4
        Quote: Vladest
        Quote: Ulysses
        More evidence of the benefits of oil and gas pipelines

        Each type of transport has its own advantages. You cannot lay a pipe from the USA to the EU.

        Golden words, the US has nothing to do in Europe !!! laughing
        1. Vladest Offline Vladest
          Vladest (Vladimir) 28 March 2021 11: 54
          -1
          Quote: Astronaut
          Golden words, the US has nothing to do in Europe !!!

          It will be decided by the USA and Europe themselves))))
      2. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
        igor.igorev (Igor) 26 March 2021 11: 34
        0
        Why not lay it? Can. Only it will be insanely expensive.
      3. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
        Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 20: 40
        +1
        Each mode of transport has its own advantages... You can't lay a pipe from the USA to the EU.

        Maybe it's not about the advantages, but in a slightly different plane ??

        Otherwise, how can one explain Biden's decision to crush construction oil pipelines from Canada??

        In 2015, then-President of the United States Barack Obama abandoned the construction of the pipeline, announcing that it runs counter to the national interests of the United States. Trump then signed a decree to resume construction on Keystone XL.
        1. Vladest Offline Vladest
          Vladest (Vladimir) 28 March 2021 11: 55
          -1
          Quote: Ulysses
          Otherwise, how can one explain Biden's decision to crush the construction of an oil pipeline from Canada ??

          Presidents change, and strategy also changes.
          1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
            Ulysses (Alexey) 28 March 2021 21: 56
            +1
            Presidents change, and strategy also changes.

            It makes no sense to conclude long-term agreements with such states.
  6. Mikhailov Offline Mikhailov
    Mikhailov (Mikhail Ivanov) 25 March 2021 22: 38
    +4
    The author is right, the bustle around the NSR will become even more acute. The United States is still zealous, but after such incidents they will tear and throw in order to be able to influence the movement along this waterway. And Russia will have to toughly defend its interests.
  7. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
    Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 25 March 2021 23: 03
    -5
    They have already been partially released, reoriented along the canal, and navigation has been restored.
    1. Kristallovich Online Kristallovich
      Kristallovich (Ruslan) 26 March 2021 09: 22
      +4
      They have already been partially released, reoriented along the canal, and navigation has been restored.

      Who is this lie for? The Suez Canal is closed and will not be accessible for passage for at least a week, and most likely much more.
      1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
        Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 27 March 2021 17: 09
        -1
        This was written by a Russian source - "Russia 24". So he is lying.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 26 March 2021 06: 53
    +1
    Quote: Natan Bruk
    They have already been partially released, reoriented along the canal, and navigation has been restored.

    No one doubted that the canal would be cleared, the tea was not blocked by the Persians.
    The question is that smart people will blow on the water now.
  10. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 26 March 2021 15: 07
    0
    Now is the time to promote the South-North route through Iran and Russia.
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 26 March 2021 21: 17
      +2
      There is the Northern Sea Route.

      Well guarded from all sorts of pirates ..

  11. Dmitry Antipin Offline Dmitry Antipin
    Dmitry Antipin (Dmitry Antipin) 26 March 2021 17: 47
    0
    I wonder how soon the Russian trace will be found? Obviously, the pilot was drunk with a novice, or the pilot himself was Putin's agent.
  12. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 26 March 2021 20: 57
    0
    It's all strange .. And Putin has nothing to do with
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 29 March 2021 19: 42
      -1
      It became straightforward.
  13. vitaly savkin Offline vitaly savkin
    vitaly savkin (vitaly savkin) 27 March 2021 05: 23
    +1
    Are there too many coincidences in a week? Either the wind knocks Biden off his feet three times, the DB also refers to the wind, then this container ship turned it across the Suez? Well, probably in the USA and on the Suez Canal, not just the wind was blowing in the first case, once Biden was applied to the ladder three times, but in the second there was a whole tsunami in the channel once such a ship was deployed. The question arises, what about in previous years this ship during such natural phenomena passed the channel ????????
  14. vitaly savkin Offline vitaly savkin
    vitaly savkin (vitaly savkin) 27 March 2021 05: 26
    0
    Moreover, here's what I wanted to say, Why doesn't the press of the "world lamp of democracy" write about "the Kremlin's hand", "Putin's agents" and about the intrigues of Putin himself "????" Or then they will write that Putin, sitting in the taiga, blew so Biden was attached to the gangway and the ship turned around ??? And where are our liberaciennes with their dogmas? It's even sad to read such news without Putin's hand)))))))))
  15. Sergey A_2 Offline Sergey A_2
    Sergey A_2 (Siberian Yuzhanin) 27 March 2021 08: 12
    0
    As one very resourceful bear said - This is not casual laughing Someone needed it. I do not think that such a huge trough was entrusted to a pilot trainee or did not look at the forecast for storms.
  16. Andrey_4 Offline Andrey_4
    Andrey_4 (Andrey Mikhailovich) 27 March 2021 11: 45
    0
    (lazily): hasn't Putin been accused of the secret background of this incident yet? So, wait, sir ...
  17. Solomon Offline Solomon
    Solomon (alexey salomon) 27 March 2021 14: 05
    0
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    How categorically laughing

    are there any facts against? Or another "water", without facts and an abundance of their own conclusions ?!
  18. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 29 March 2021 14: 06
    +1
    Will not change anything, there is no alternative. If the lesson is for future use, then the conclusions will be drawn, and what - we'll see.
    The Northern Sea Route and the northwestern passage of the Canadian archipelago are not competitors.
    Polar ice just melts quickly, and can increase the area of ​​ice cover just as quickly. There have been precedents more than once.
    There are no ports and re-storage facilities, except for Murman. Icebreaking escort increases the cost of transportation, and more than one of them is required for each wiring.
    If, as they say, a gust of wind put this monster across the channel, then in the Arctic winds and maybe 30 m / s are not uncommon. The canal pierced by the icebreaker will be narrower, and the hummocks can rip through the sides like the Titanic. The insurance will be raised several times.
    The width of the channel pierced by the icebreaker limits the tonnage of ships, and the cost.
    The main thing is that ice-class vessels are required, such as the Christophe de Margerie gas carrier, and this is 30 percent more expensive than similar ones.
    The excitement will pass when the count is calculated, but for the Russian Federation the Northern Sea Route will always be relevant.
  19. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 29 March 2021 23: 56
    +2
    The ice cover is decreasing in the Arctic, Antarctic, in the mountains - everywhere, and melt water where does it go if the level of the world Ocean does not rise by a millimeter?
    One of two things, or the water cycle in nature is a fairy tale, or the widespread reduction of the ice cover is a lie.