Gas for free: Power of Siberia becomes even more disadvantageous for Russia


The Power of Siberia gas trunkline was rightfully considered a symbol of Russia's “turn to the East”. Concluded after years of negotiations in 2014, it was supposed to mark the beginning of the diversification of gas supplies by the state corporation Gazprom and a decrease in its dependence on the mercy of the West. Even then, voices of doubt sounded, indicating the unobvious profitability of this project, but they were not heard. In 2021, it becomes clear that the payback period for Power of Siberia will be very seriously extended.


The pipeline was supposed to connect two gas fields in Eastern Siberia, Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoye, with China, supplying China with up to 38 billion cubic meters per year after reaching full capacity. It should be borne in mind that the Kovykta field is still being developed, at present a gas pipeline is being built from it to the already functioning Chayandinskoye field, the length of which will be 803 kilometers. We will talk more about the resource base of the project a little later.

Why does Beijing need Power of Siberia? China is one of the world's largest consumers of oil, gas and other natural resources. The demand for energy in the Middle Kingdom is growing, and the presence of a main pipeline directly from Russia, when there are no transit countries, would diversify the risks of the Chinese economics in case of interruptions in LNG supplies. Given the deterioration in relations with the United States, Beijing's fears are not without some basis.

Everything is clear with the PRC, but why does Russia need Power of Siberia? The advantages of the gas pipeline include the opportunity to enter the growing Chinese energy market, as well as the implementation of a number of related projects, for example, the construction of the Amur gas processing plant, one of the largest in the world in terms of capacity. Moscow has spared 1,1 trillion rubles for the pipeline, compared to an initial estimate of 800 billion. But this is where the positive ends for now. More and more questions arise about the prospects for the commercial payback of this project by Gazprom.

The contract for supplies to China was concluded for 30 years. The specific terms of the contract were a trade secret, but they could not hide the sewing in the sack. The usual practice of our "national treasure" was the conclusion of an agreement on gas supplies pegged to oil quotations with a time lag of six months. However, in this case, the top managers of the state corporation showed originality, linking not to “black gold”, but to the products of its processing, fuel oil and gas oil, with a lag of not 6, but 9 months. And it did its dirty deed.

In the "coronavirus" 2020, in addition to the pandemic, the world is faced with the consequences of the "six-week" oil war. As a result, the quotes of "black gold" set an anti-record, even going into the negative zone for some time. The consumption of not only crude oil, but also petroleum products has decreased. Now Russia is forced to pay a high price for such features of the export contract. At the beginning of 2021, one thousand cubic meters of gas in Europe cost $ 257. In Asia, where there is no such a developed pipeline network, they already gave $ 587 per 120 cubic meters of LNG. For comparison, the "blue fuel" coming from Russia through the "Power of Siberia" now costs China less than $ XNUMX per thousand cubic meters, which by today's standards is literally for nothing.

Somehow it doesn't smell like commercial profit. For understanding, the union Belarus, we sell gas for 128,5 dollars per thousand cubic meters. "Blue fuel" supplied to China from Uzbekistan now costs Beijing $ 151 per 162 cubic meters, from Kazakhstan - $ 187, from Turkmenistan - $ XNUMX. Yes, Gazprom's top managers know how to do business, you won’t say anything. Smart Chinese have now increased the purchase of free gas at times, trying to stock up on it for future use. And after all, no one guarantees that this is a one-time temporary phenomenon.

Yes, after a while prices for petroleum products will rise. However, the European Union, the United States, and China itself have relied on a radical reduction in fossil fuel consumption. In the coming years, will be introduced everywhere Technology receiving renewable energy, the number of electric vehicles around the world will only increase. Of course, there is no talk of a complete rejection of oil, it is a valuable source of raw materials for the chemical industry, but the announced and widely advertised global trend towards a gradual decrease in the consumption of "black gold" and its refined products can hardly be stopped. This means that over time, Russian "blue fuel" for Chinese consumers will also become cheaper.

In addition to all this, there are some doubts that Gazprom will actually be able to fulfill its contractual obligations to Beijing. The domestic press has already reported that the resource base of the Power of Siberia was assessed incorrectly and turned out to be less than expected. At the same time, some of the wells already drilled in the fields have become "disabled" due to a violation of technology, and therefore cannot produce the required amount of gas. Gazprom, which received an advance payment from China, risks embarrassing itself, with which some observers associate its activation under the Power of Siberia-2 project. Within the framework of this project, a jumper can be built between the two pipelines, and the first "Power" will then be supplied from the proven fields. The question is still where is the benefit for Russia.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 23 March 2021 15: 42
    -1
    the owners of Gazprom will get theirs one way or another. Not from China, but from the people.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 23 March 2021 15: 58
    +12
    Spring aggravation or what?
    The gas price changes with a time lag depending on the oil price; it repeats it simply with a delay. Prices have gone up, which means that gas prices will rise later, the price has dropped, which means that gas prices will soon go down. Why, at the same time, they begin to epilate the hair on the head and in other not modest places, sprinkling the latter with ash and other substances that have turned up under the hands is not clear request

    However, the European Union, the United States, and China itself have staked on a radical reduction in fossil fuel consumption.

    And what, in 9 months they will give up gas and switch to wind turbines? Is that why the stupid Chinese continue to build a gas pipeline on their territory?
    To be honest, I am amazed at the persistence with which you try to find a problem where it does not exist. winked
    1. Cyril Offline Cyril
      Cyril (Kirill) 23 March 2021 17: 02
      .
      And what, in 9 months they will give up gas and switch to wind turbines? Is that why the stupid Chinese continue to build a gas pipeline on their territory?

      It's just that the author, unlike you, knows how to look a little further 9 months ahead :)
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 23 March 2021 17: 27
        +7
        It's just that the author, unlike you, knows how to look a little further 9 months ahead :)

        You, unlike the author, can look a little deeper back laughing
        1. Cyril Offline Cyril
          Cyril (Kirill) 23 March 2021 20: 23
          -8
          Thank you for such a flattering assessment of my ability to analyze history :)
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 23 March 2021 20: 44
            +3
            Thank you for such a flattering assessment of my ability to analyze history :)

            It's my pleasure. you can call it history smile
      2. Mish Offline Mish
        Mish (Misha) 24 March 2021 09: 24
        +2
        Quote: Cyril
        And what, in 9 months they will give up gas and switch to wind turbines? Is that why the stupid Chinese continue to build a gas pipeline on their territory?

        It's just that the author, unlike you, knows how to look a little further 9 months ahead :)

        They wrote about the Power of Siberia more than once or twice. Just calculate its cost and the price of gas. By the way, the gas pipeline is not 100% full.
        1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
          Alexndr p (Alexander) 24 March 2021 11: 58
          0
          by the way, the pipeline is not 100% full.

          because China is still building it on its territory

          In China, construction has begun on the southern section of the Russian-Chinese Eastern Route gas pipeline. This section, according to the CNWest portal, is a continuation of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.

          you simplified everything in your head too much, by the way
    2. colyanpirogov Offline colyanpirogov
      colyanpirogov (Nikolai Pirogov) 24 March 2021 13: 10
      +2
      And Sergei Marzhetskiy just realized that he "got fucked up with the SP-2 ..." and now switched to "The Power of Siberia" ... You have to write about something !!! fellow
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 23 March 2021 16: 27
    +9
    K always, "we are all going to die."
    A small note on one fact from the article

    The usual practice of our "national treasure" was the conclusion of an agreement on gas supplies pegged to oil quotations with a time lag of six months. However, in this case, the top managers of the state corporation showed originality, linking not to “black gold”, but to the products of its processing, fuel oil and gas oil, with a lag of not 6, but 9 months.

    It should be noted that the gas price has never been tied directly to the oil price. Gas prices have ALWAYS been tied to fuel oil and gas oil. We are talking about pegging to the oil price just for convenience. But there is a rather complicated formula.

    https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Гронингенский принцип

    As for the lag of 6 months, this is also not a constant. The binding can be 3 months and 6 and 9. Usually take 6 months. It was originally 3 months old. What is now expected at a low price will be much more expensive in 9 months.
  4. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) 23 March 2021 16: 34
    +6
    The arguments are far-fetched. Tying prices to oil or related fluids is bad, since prices are low, and if they rise, it is still bad, since green energy is coming.
    Oil prices will rise anyway, unless a nuclear winter arrives. Green energy has shown itself this winter, there is no trust in it, only as an additional source of energy. Have you heard about the fact that gas pipelines can be used to transfer hydrogen, a new star in the energy sector? Or do I see it here, but we don't read it here?
    1. Mish Offline Mish
      Mish (Misha) 24 March 2021 09: 30
      -2
      Quote: ALSur
      The arguments are far-fetched. Tying prices to oil or related fluids is bad, since prices are low, and if they rise, it is still bad, since green energy is coming.
      Oil prices will rise anyway, unless a nuclear winter arrives. Green energy has shown itself this winter, there is no trust in it, only as an additional source of energy. Have you heard about the fact that gas pipelines can be used to transfer hydrogen, a new star in the energy sector? Or do I see it here, but we don't read it here?

      And how are you going to produce hydrogen? If anything, for its extraction it is necessary to build factories. They build in Europe, but we do not. And it cannot be transported in pure form.
  5. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 23 March 2021 17: 26
    +2
    I apologize, but what will gas recipients use to make their plastics? As far as I know from the course in physical geography, something is wrong with the raw materials in that part. Maybe the author passes off something intimate as real?
  6. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 23 March 2021 17: 29
    +6
    The specific terms of the contract were a trade secret, but they could not hide the sewing in the sack.
    ...
    At the same time, some of the wells already drilled in the fields have become "disabled" due to a violation of technology, and therefore cannot produce the required amount of gas.

    Gavrila was an economist
    on gas I considered profitability
    Sucking the results out of the finger
    He wrote about profitability.
    Drilled the ground wrong
    They pumped the gas illiterately
    About this journalist Gavrila
    I gave the article in the topkor "at once".
  7. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 March 2021 19: 46
    -8
    The author is right. The facts are given, the arguments are given. And in the comments only "sprinkle with saliva." No one has denied the facts, and the mediocrity is being defended as if they are working out their rations.

    ... They are not born stupid, they grow up stupid,
    if there is no education, the path will not be easy ...
  8. DPN Offline DPN
    DPN (DPN) 23 March 2021 21: 03
    0
    So much for you, shod up to the full, well done.
  9. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 24 March 2021 09: 56
    0
    Your country needs to be gasified faster. And raise the salaries of the people. Then gas can be sold in your country at a higher price.
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 24 March 2021 12: 03
      +1
      if you conduct a survey on the forum, how much will be without gas?
      your forecast
  10. Vit3222 Offline Vit3222
    Vit3222 (Vitali) 24 March 2021 13: 23
    +2
    The author, who is he? The level of "analysis" does not stand up to scrutiny. Well, the way of serving, pulls for a cheap order! This DISCLAIMER lacks creativity :) Still, the money must be worked out more creatively!
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. Oder Offline Oder
    Oder (Wojciech) 24 March 2021 14: 40
    -1
    According to PetroChina's calculations, the reduction in demand for gas from Russia may be from 5 to 8 billion cubic meters. annually. Despite the increased demand from the Chinese economy, most of the gas will be produced domestically. The Russian LNG sector will suffer the most.
    1. Unpoisoned Offline Unpoisoned
      Unpoisoned (Nora Nora) 25 March 2021 23: 32
      0
      about the suffering of Russian LNG, tell two Chinese companies that have invested in NOVOTEK plants at 30% of the money.)))))))))
  13. Maaslo Sallonen Offline Maaslo Sallonen
    Maaslo Sallonen 25 March 2021 10: 46
    +4
    I'll explain it to Seryozha Marzhetsky. Seryozha, the Power of Siberia is still unfinished. It should connect to the Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vlalivostok gas pipeline and end at an LNG plant near Nakhodka. Didn't you know that? And also, Seryozha, this year they are starting to commission the gas processing plant. Near Blagoveshchensk. Read why yourself. And then I have already read a whole lecture. And yet, Seryozha, please do not write anymore, you are an amateur.
  14. Evgeny Popov Offline Evgeny Popov
    Evgeny Popov (Evgeny Popov) 26 March 2021 23: 37
    0
    Again Marzhetsky ...
    Renewable energy has shown its complete failure this winter. Electric cars, on the other hand, do not fit into the existing capacity.
    The same England planning to replace all cars with electric trains suddenly discovered that its networks are as decrepit as the queen and do not pull now. Therefore, they began to implement smart meters to turn off active consumers.
  15. alspas Offline alspas
    alspas (Alexander) 27 March 2021 14: 11
    0
    Smarter than Gazprom's managers? Well, well, look into your pocket.
    You don't think two, let alone three steps forward.
    Alternative energy has already shown itself.
    The world has already been taught by this cold snap. Who could have foreseen it?
    What will happen next?
  16. Way caps Offline Way caps
    Way caps (Way Caps) 28 March 2021 10: 56
    -1
    Gazprom runs the risk of overhauling

    "Stick" is, of course, coolly written, but for a long time and everywhere, he got in the way.
  17. Yuri A Offline Yuri A
    Yuri A (Yuri) 28 March 2021 10: 58
    +1
    A short mind and a vision that at a distance of two steps from you allows a person to walk boldly on the ground. Minus only in one short vision does not allow you to determine where to go and where to eventually come. This is how the author thinks for today and draws conclusions about the perspective for several years. In fact, you need to raise your head and figure out what is better to buy cheaper or more expensive, and even with the cost of transport. Pipeline gas is the cheapest and most reliable in terms of delivery and quality. And if the author still looks at the problem from a roller coaster, he will see that the Power of Siberia is the first step towards conquering the gas market in Southeast Asia with pipeline gas instead of the gas currently imported by gas carriers from all over the world and therefore very expensive and costly
  18. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 29 March 2021 00: 25
    -1
    They hand over Russia for sure, if only to die peacefully, to nullify all achievements !!!
  19. Vlad K. Offline Vlad K.
    Vlad K. (Vlad Kharden) 17 July 2021 22: 46
    0
    Not everything in this world is done for the purpose of profit, do not let China take a lot more cheaply today or tomorrow, and their choice is not very rich ...