The Diplomat: The Threat of the Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Is Higher


Fears have grown that mainland China may soon begin to solve the Taiwan problem with direct military force, writes the American magazine The Diplomat. This opinion is allegedly held by a number of experts. Among them, the most significant is the assessment of Admiral Philip Davidson, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command. He expressed the opinion, speaking before a Senate committee, that "China may try to invade Taiwan by military means in the next six years."


Another factor, as noted in the publication, that contributes to anxiety is “a sense of a general increase in the aggressiveness of external policy Beijing.

As an example, here is the forceful border clash between China and India, the strengthening of the defense of the "nine-dotted line" in the South China Sea. It is argued that the central government's attitude towards Hong Kong has implications for Taiwan as well.

Another argument is that Beijing's destruction of civil liberties in Hong Kong, contrary to China's earlier commitments to leave the political system [autonomy] intact until 2047, clearly shows that the anticipated negative international reaction will not deter military action against Taiwan. Now that Hong Kong is truly enslaved, Taiwan is under threat because, in the eyes of the Communist Party, it is the last major piece of unoccupied territory.

- noted in the text.

Of course, the threat from the PRC has steadily increased. However, as highlighted in the publication, the situation is not as dire as war-predicting analysts portray.

For domestic political reasons, it is highly unlikely that China will go into hostilities next year. In addition, a cross-strait invasion attempt would be arguably the largest and most complex amphibious assault operation in history, conducted by a military with no significant combat experience since 1979 in an unsuccessful war against Vietnam.

China could more confidently seize one of the small, outlying islands under Taipei control or blockade the breakaway territory's main ports, but neither approach guarantees surrender.

Chinese analyst Cui Lei of the Institute of International Relations said Chinese leaders feel the need to remain tough on Taiwan but have no intention of launching a campaign in the foreseeable future.

At that time, the people of Taiwan would not submit without a fight; and the United States may defend the island simply for fear of losing leadership in the region.
  • Used photographs: Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of China
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  1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 22 March 2021 10: 03
    +7
    Taiwan is one of the provinces of China and this is recognized by almost the whole world, including the UN.
    The PRC's policy towards Taiwan is similar to that of Hong Kong and Macau - a peaceful unification while preserving the autonomy and existing social order in Taiwan.
    The unification of Taiwan with the PRC is contrary to the interests of the United States, because it will increase the economic, scientific, and industrial potential of the PRC, deprive the United States of a strategically important foothold and open the PRC to go beyond the line of islands - a potential naval blockade, undermine the confidence of the United States of its satellites in the region and increase the influence of the PRC in while the United States declared China its main strategic adversary.
    Comrade Xi clearly and unequivocally outlined the position of the PRC, saying that China will not give up a single Si of its land to anyone and does not claim to be a stranger to one.
    The persistence of the United States in opposing peaceful unification leaves the PRC no choice.
    Comrade Xi said bluntly that China does not want war, but it is not afraid of war either.
    In the event of a military conflict, the United States will substitute its vassals, primarily Japan and South Korea, while they themselves will earn bloody money supplying them with weapons and blocking the sea communications of the PRC, and in this case the Russian Federation can play an important role.
  2. GRF Offline GRF
    GRF 22 March 2021 13: 28
    +4
    Ah yes, the Americans: they protect the Chinese from the Chinese, the Korean from the Korean, the Arab from the Arab, the Slavs from the Slavs, the Latinos from the Latinos, the Negroes from the Negroes, and even the Indians from themselves ...
  3. Dima Dima_2 Offline Dima Dima_2
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 22 March 2021 19: 17
    +2
    Let them butt) They will not have time for Russia. As Stolypin said, Russia needs 25 years of quiet development.
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 22 March 2021 20: 22
      0
      Oh! And I have an ASUS note with the Made in China label.
      Shaw will now be ... sad