How the updated Ukrainian Armed Forces will act against the army of Donbass


With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that another full-scale war in Donbass will begin next week after the "ultimatum" that Kiev will present to Russia, DPR and LPR on March 15. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation represented by its special representative Maria Zakharova officially warned Ukraine against "implementing a power scenario." In 2014, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ended with the notorious "cauldrons", complete military defeat, capture or flight of the survivors. But what if things turn out a little differently in the spring of 2021?


First of all, let's say a few words about why a “power scenario” is almost inevitable. Too many internal problems have accumulated in Ukraine that the young and ambitious President Zelensky simply cannot cope with. The country, hooked on the West's credit needle, is rapidly becoming impoverished, and the population is scattering en masse in search of a better life. Those who stayed are forced to somehow survive under the condition of continuously growing utility tariffs and unemployment. While ordinary Ukrainians are not making ends meet, a few oligarchs and people close to the local variety of the “vertical of power” are only getting richer. In addition, the coronavirus pandemic and uncertainty about how and with what to vaccinate the population of Nezalezhnaya created big problems.

In the conditions of the chosen vector for "European integration", it is almost impossible to do with all this. Gradually, a new rebellion is brewing, senseless and merciless. Comedian and just "darling" Vladimir Zelensky was even forced to cast off the guise of "President Goloborodko" and turn into a kind of dictator. There is only one proven way to relieve all this social tension - to try to arrange a "small and victorious" war in the Donbass. Any military success, like the "liberation" of several settlements, will be proclaimed a "great change", and Vladimir Alexandrovich will receive his triumph and re-election for a second term.

But why is Kiev counting on success? Didn't the defeats of 2014-2015 teach him anything? Alas, they taught.

At first, do not be frivolous about the APU. Today it is a 250-strong army, much better trained, organized and armed than 5-6 years ago. Many soldiers and officers received real combat experience, and for one beaten, two unbeaten are given. We will not overestimate their capabilities, but we should not underestimate either. Let us remind you that not so long ago in Armenia, many sincerely believed that if something happened they would utterly defeat the Azerbaijani army and then reach Baku, but it turned out differently.

Secondly, this time foreign states will actively help Ukraine. First of all, let us mention the Turkish attack drones, which proved to be a real "weapon of victory" in Nagorno-Karabakh. Almost with impunity "Bayraktars" in a short period of time knocked out a huge number of Armenian military equipment... So, Kiev has already purchased two batches of these drone UAVs from Ankara. In addition, there are rumors that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being advised by Turkish military advisers who have gained successful combat experience in Syria, Libya, and then have sided with the Azerbaijani army in Artsakh.

Even more alarming, it appears that the Pentagon will now also help the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Of course, not by sending troops, but for now by intelligence data. We will remind, recently, the US military deployed a squadron of reconnaissance and strike drones MQ-9 Reaper ("Reaper") and maintenance personnel of 90 American operators and pilots at an airbase in Romania. General Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of US Air Forces Europe & Africa, is, by the way, an ethnic Armenian, which is somewhat ironic, explained the goals of this new unit:

This gives us the opportunity to collect information in a way that we did not have before, and at the same time allows us, from the point of view of a combat theater, to get a clearer picture of the activities that take place not only in the Black Sea, but also in other places ... Crimea and that area.

“That region” is, if someone didn’t understand, Donbass. Now, according to the official US Air Force portal Air Force, the MQ-9 Reaper have begun round-the-clock reconnaissance patrols. Their flight range is 1900 kilometers, the maximum speed is 400 km / h. The distance from the American airbase in Romania to Crimea is only 700 kilometers, but it is possible that in the event of hostilities, Kiev will provide the Pentagon with the opportunity to use its infrastructure for the UAV. It is also highly likely that the RQ-4 Global Hawk drones will be actively involved in reconnaissance of the situation in the Donbass, the range of which is 5500 kilometers.

General Harrigian has extensive combat experience, having participated in Operations Just Cause in Panama in 1989, Desert Storm in 1991, Iraq Freedom in 2003 and Inherent Resolve in 2014. By the way, it was he who said that the US Air Force has a concrete plan to overcome the missile defense system of the Kaliningrad region. In other words, in 2021, the updated Ukrainian Armed Forces will act against Donbass, guided by the advice and recommendations of the American and Turkish military. You should not treat this with a hat-roll attitude. It is clear that Russia will not allow the DPR and LPR to defeat, but a well-organized large-scale offensive of the Ukrainian army can lead to the republics losing part of their territories.
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  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 12 March 2021 16: 00
    -6
    Unlike Russia, Kiev's allies are active. Russia has a different position: non-interference, but in fact, betrayal.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 12 March 2021 16: 01
    +2
    I wonder if, according to Putin

    Ukraine may lose its statehood

    then who will pay Ukrainian debts to creditors, including the IMF? LDNR, if they enter Kiev? Most probably not. Will they write it off? I doubt it. They will hang on those who took out loans, i.e. on the former and current presidents of Ukraine? Or did the bourgeois denyuzhki cry?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 14 March 2021 13: 12
      +1
      There are our 3 lard ...
  4. Yes, the Ukrainian army is ready as never before and will take the Donbass easily! Forward, Ukraine! To Bryansk! To Moscow!
    1. molotkov60mkpu Offline molotkov60mkpu
      molotkov60mkpu (Yuri) 13 March 2021 09: 31
      +3
      In 2008, the Georgia Army was also ready.
      1. Eh! what to take from these kebabs!
        1. Voyager Offline Voyager
          Voyager ( Andrew) 14 March 2021 11: 31
          +1
          13 years have passed, and I still remember a lot of Georgians in our social networks with militant comments, like they will show us. A month or two before the events.
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    3. Valery Vinokurov (valery vinokurov) April 18 2021 11: 00
      -1
      Welcome to hell, Judah)))
  5. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 12 March 2021 16: 41
    +3
    Again with us, as then, in June 1941- "On foreign territory, and with little blood" .... Themselves, with our connivance, raised the enemy with their own money, and on their own border, and when they come to us will be trampled into Russia, we will also supply them with diesel fuel, and spare parts for tanks and BUKs - everything is like with Hitler's Germany, which was supplied with grain and rolled metal until the very day of the outbreak of the war. The Banderaites will start, the Japanese will pick it up, the Turks will, too, and China will not lag behind, and they will tear Mother Russia to pieces from all ends, and all this will end only in a nuclear war, in short, the fact that we will have nuclear weapons after NATO missile strikes and The United States, according to our Strategic Missile Forces and the Aerospace Forces, is obvious, but we all just scoffed and scoffed at the Ukrainian army, and the Russian blood will have to reap all this again, and not a small one ... Open your eyes even wider, gentlemen, rulers, look, what is happening in the world and how the nationalist Ukraine-Fourth Reich is being revived.
    1. molotkov60mkpu Offline molotkov60mkpu
      molotkov60mkpu (Yuri) 13 March 2021 09: 34
      0
      The German Reich was an economically powerful power, but how is the Ukrainian Reich being revived?
      1. Valentine Offline Valentine
        Valentine (Valentin) 13 March 2021 10: 41
        +3
        In Germany, until 1933, there was no army and economy as such, but when Hitler came to power, he began to revive it and strengthen it with the help of European "partners", and after 5 years he had already conquered all of Europe. Compare the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2014, and those that Ukraine has now .... Yes, the United States and Europe will jump out of their pants just to play off Russia and Ukraine, which is now happening, and we will sit on the riverbank and wait for the corpse of our enemy will float by, we are waiting for his self-elimination.
  6. Inga Offline Inga
    Inga (Inga) 12 March 2021 17: 07
    -1
    It is strange that Armenia was cited as an example. Armenia did not fight with Azerbaijan. And in general, a very pretentious article ...
  7. oderih Offline oderih
    oderih (Alex) 12 March 2021 18: 03
    0
    As usual. Finger-guessing in the humanities sky. There is a caveat for every fad in case of departure.
  8. Alexander Zima Offline Alexander Zima
    Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 13 March 2021 09: 50
    +4
    In the event that the APU will fight as in the Brest Fortress .. that is, to the last, with the last grenade undermining itself .. yes .. then it will be a different army ... but for what ideals they will undermine themselves. not for those that Zelensky then made everyone laugh in 95kv .. question.
  9. Dukhskrepny Offline Dukhskrepny
    Dukhskrepny (Vasya) 13 March 2021 12: 17
    +2
    Quote: Inga
    It is strange that Armenia was cited as an example. Armenia did not fight with Azerbaijan. And in general, a very pretentious article ...

    Why then did the Armenian mothers and relatives of the dead and missing people besieged and besieged the Armenian Defense Ministry in Yerevan with demands to find and hand over the bodies of their sons and husbands? And who was then buried in cemeteries in Armenia itself?
  10. TermNachTer Offline TermNachTer
    TermNachTer (Nikolai) 13 March 2021 12: 39
    +4
    I was crying))) author, have you seen Banderaffen up close? 250 thousand of which 40 thousand are women, then a significant part, drunks, drug addicts and other degenerates. There are almost no people left with real experience of war. Even many akhfitseri left))) and in Kiev - the lords of the haneraly understand this perfectly.
    1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
      Cudgel (Dubina) 16 March 2021 19: 47
      -4
      Are they all degenerates? And then what the DPR and LPR were reduced to the size of 15% of the original territory? Or in the "people's militia" even greater degenerates and drunks, once skedaddle from other degenerates? The DPR and LPR are saved only by the fact that they are in the zone of fire of Russian artillery.
      Why does Kiev need the remnants of the DPR and LPR, this plague menagerie, which are also on the "balance sheet" of the Russian Federation. People clearly see what these republics have become, what the "Russian world" brought them there. And they will keep it as long as possible.
      1. TermNachTer Offline TermNachTer
        TermNachTer (Nikolai) 18 March 2021 14: 36
        0
        I repeat the question - when was the last time Banderaffen was observed up close?
        1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
          Cudgel (Dubina) 18 March 2021 19: 27
          0
          Of course, I did not observe it up close, as well as you. You have decided on the news from Channel 1 that they are both Banderaffen and degenerates. They also thought so about the Japanese in 1905 and the Finns in 1939.
  11. A77 Offline A77
    A77 13 March 2021 14: 42
    +3
    In other words, in 2021, the updated Ukrainian Armed Forces will act against Donbass, guided by the advice and recommendations of the American and Turkish military.

    Saakashvili also acted based on the advice and recommendations of the American military.
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  13. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 14 March 2021 13: 36
    +2
    ... and Vladimir Alexandrovich will receive his triumph and re-election for a second term.

    For re-election for a second term, he needs to start a year and a half later. This hype has nothing to do with re-election.
    It's just that Zelensky's rating fell below 20%. Already in early February, 55,4% of those polled supported the idea of ​​resigning the government and forming a new cabinet, and 60,7% supported the idea of ​​dissolving parliament and early elections. After that, the launch of the impeachment process of Zelensky is very likely. Hence Zelensky's unrealistic legal chaos in recent months.
    Therefore, the APU has no motivation. A capable, sane population has long been in the Russian Federation or in Poland.
    Bayraktars are highly overrated. Don't make a wunderwaffe out of them.
    The Russian army is quite capable of neutralizing both UAVs and US reconnaissance satellites.
    In the event of a large-scale provocation, the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions will most likely be occupied. Where the referendum was held in 2014. Everything will end faster than they will explain to Biden where Ukraine is and what the LPNR is.
    I sincerely hope that they will not go further. Polls show that the population of both Ukraine and the Russian Federation is not ready for this.
  14. Pavel Timokhin Offline Pavel Timokhin
    Pavel Timokhin (Pavel Timokhin) 16 March 2021 17: 37
    +1
    and how are you talking? Kiev will present an "ultimatum" on March 15 to Russia .... already the 16th! where is the ultimatum ?!
  15. Archie Offline Archie
    Archie (Arthur) 19 March 2021 18: 39
    +1
    Yes, the policy of the Russian Federation in relation to Nazi Ukraine sometimes raises questions, if you do not know the task number 1. The Russian Federation needs not only Donbass but the whole of New Russia including Odessa. As Putin said, we will not allow Russia's generous gifts to be turned against Russia's interests and security. Glory to the people of the LDNR, great glory to the militiamen. But unfortunately geopolitics is a complicated thing.
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