Watch your hands: What really happened with pensions

You all know me as a fiery Putin’s rostrum that broke more than one spear in battles with liberals and maydaunas of all stripes, glorifying the obvious and obvious victories of GDP on the outer perimeter and clarifying the essence policy Kremlin where these victories are not obvious. And I hear only one rebuke from my readers - I do not comment on the internal politics of the Kremlin. It is understandable, on what basis do I, a citizen of Ukraine, do this, if you and yourself have enough specialists for this. Im and cards in hand. But with the Pension Reform, I decided to change my principles when I heard from a very respected Moscow political scientist (I won’t give his name, but believe me, he doesn’t leave either television or radio broadcasts), two diametrically opposite comments - one “For” reform, and the second is “against”.





If Moscow analytes already have confusion and vacillation on this issue, then why should I be surprised by such letters to me: “All Putin’s achievements in foreign policy are shattered or neutralized by failures in the domestic one. True, for some reason you don’t want to notice them in a neighborly way. Inflation is unfolding in the country, rising prices for fuel, food, utilities. Medicine lies in ruins and it continues to "reduce, optimize." Corruption is flourishing. Who wants to notice all of the above, he notices, but this is not visible to you. Know your blow: “Putin is a hero!” The hero is, of course, a hero, but the recent increase in the retirement age is not a pound of raisins for the people ... ”- I recently received such a letter from a friend, (the name is not important in this case), a citizen of the Russian Federation. The true patriot of his country. I think that even if you do not share this point of view, at least something like you yourself have been heard lately.

What is there to argue? I invite everyone who agrees with this point of view to come to Ukraine to compare with me and find out how much the pound is worth! And about inflation + 150%, and about the devaluation of the national currency + 320%, and about fuel prices comparable to space ones, and about paid medicine (we already have no free medicine under the law), and about the lack of medicines that are not brought into the country on critical imports, and about blackouts, and about cold batteries in the winter, and about the lack of hot water in the summer. And I don’t invite you to Donbass! Come - do not regret it, maybe claims to the loafer-Putin will decrease.

And for all the rest, dissatisfied with Putin, I have only one question: “What, do you seriously think that it’s all vile boyars who have muddied, and the tsar, they say, are not in the know?” A kind good king and evil boyars! And this is in a country where even an official doesn’t have the right to fart without the permission of the tsar, what is the federal, but even the regional level ?! Do you yourself believe that? It turns out that Putin knew everything and gave the go-ahead? .. Yes, it is — he knew and gave the go-ahead! Such is la la vie! .. Alas! .. But without this in any way! The reform is not something that has matured - it has already matured for about 10 years. The hole in the Pension Fund is such that it cannot be closed by any machine. We were only waiting for the 2018 election. Before them it was impossible! You understand why.

This problem has been ripening for a long time. Those glorious times have already passed, when for one non-working pensioner there were 5 (five) working citizens. Now, one pensioner already has less than two employees who pay taxes to the PF. And in the future, by 2028, these figures will be equal. Who will then support pensioners? The state does not have money in the budget for this! All savings funds, the so-called mutual funds, are fictitious - you yourself don’t know what kind of world tomorrow will be, what currency will be tomorrow - rubles, dollars or tugriks with bitcoins and what will be the cross-rate between them, how to try to accumulate on such conditions old age, so that all your savings in one moment do not turn into dust? We have already gone through this a number of times - in 1961, in 1991, in 1998. The people have a good memory for these questions. People still hiccup from the financial crisis of 2008, which affected us on a tangent, and here is the next Pension reform, which promises to increase pensions as much as a thousand, but every year. And what will happen in a year with the ruble, you all know? And then how much will this thousand be worth ?! It is clear that this reform is not being started to increase pensions, but to reduce the burden on the Pension Fund by reducing the actual number of pensioners. Indeed, with an increase in the average age of life in the Russian Federation to 78 years, men, as before, do not live long - the average age of their death is 64 years, with a declared retirement of 65. Draw your own conclusions! So, half of the parasites have already been unfastened. Fine. Want to get a pension - drink less! (you understand that this is a bitter joke - this is not the problem at all, but this is the topic of another article).

All the hopes of naive citizens that it is only necessary to remove all tax payers from the shadows and make them pay deductions to the PF, and the problem will thus be solved - doomed. Here simple arithmetic - the birth rate in developed countries, to which the Russian Federation belongs, is falling, life expectancy is growing, the nation is aging, there are no one to pay taxes sufficient to maintain such a number of pensioners, even though everyone who gets paid in envelopes should be removed from the shadows, all taxes equally not enough. So, the solution to the problem is one thing - you need to increase the retirement age, thereby reducing the number of pensioners. All developed and even underdeveloped (like Ukraine) countries have passed along this path — alas, no other way! Whether you want it or not, whether you love Putin or not, you have to drink this cup to the bottom.

The Russian Federation has still chosen the most sparing option for solving this problem, extending its solution for men by 10, and for women by 15 years. This will make it possible by 2024 to increase the number of economically active able-bodied people by 1,8 million people, which should positively affect both the dynamics of the country's economic growth and pension provision. On paper, everything seems to be true. But in life, I’m personally, I’m not sure that these citizens will not have problems with employment, when they will already be denied work by age, and they will also be denied a pension of the same age. Are there many employers who want to hire a person of 60 years old, with health problems and a pension looming for him in a couple of years? I don’t know, but I’m sure not much. And then what should these citizens do? Hang or shoot ?! Believe me, I know what I'm talking about - I myself faced this problem in my own Ukraine, and felt in my own skin all the charms of pre-retirement age (and I am only 53 and this is already a disaster!). Tell me, the same Ukraine - a country without a future, trading in its citizens to take away. I agree! Ukraine is in the deepest recession, but also in Russia, the growth rate is also far from 12%. Therefore, here, too, I do not have much optimism.

Everyone is already in a hurry to promote this issue, from Zhirinovsky and Navalny (one is naturally “for”, the other is naturally “against”) and ending with “Fair Russia” and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (which are both “against” the reform). Of course, PR can be done here, but still there is no way out - reform will have to be carried out. And hang it on the government. That is why this kamikaze government remained, having an anti-rating comparable only to the anti-rating of the Groisman government in Ukraine.

But for many of you it was a mystery - well, why, why Putin left these economic mediocrities at the helm? After all, everything that could have already been ruined ?! Well, first of all, not everything! There is still something to smack. Secondly, and not completely screwed up - the FIFA World Cup was prepared and conducted with dignity, the Crimean bridge was built, about the law enforcement agencies, in general, I am silent - zero claims, against the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - even more so. Even against Siluanov and Nabiullina, I personally have no complaints, because I understand something in finance and understand the logic of their actions, and Putin also understands it, just not everything can be told to you, ordinary citizens. There remains only one key figure, to which all citizens of the Russian Federation have a lot of complaints. And you all know her. Starting from its surrender of Syria in 2011 and ending with the famous phrase: "There is no money, but you hold on!" in 2017. It is on her that all the dogs will be hung. See how simple it turns out? Look for some secret sacred meaning in the actions of the VVP, while everything lies on the surface.

That is why now, right after the elections, in the summer when everyone is resting and their attention is dulled, and during the World Cup, when everyone went crazy from the unexpected victories of our “footless” players under the guidance of the “most mediocre” coach (I quote you, what claims to me?), and let her in. Reform! Without it, I already explained, nowhere! The prime minister will go as a switchman, and all the dogs will be hanged on him, so they left him. Should someone be the scapegoat? There is one! The absolution bear. He will answer for everything! And for gas prices, and for the Pension Reform, and for the upcoming turn of the ruble-dollar pair in currency rallies. And the garbage that the trigger for the collapse will be a sharp strengthening of the dollar, to which he personally will not have anything to do (the US Federal Reserve will be to blame, steadily raising the base discount rate) and the associated weakening of national currencies. After which the dollar’s ​​collapse is expected (literally, behind the strengthening and collapse, as in that joke - the deceased sweated before death, yes, that's good!), Which in turn will be associated with intra-American problems, which Trump can only solve in this way (I'm talking about the colossal external debt of the United States, approaching an astronomical figure of 21 trillion dollars). Medved will not see any of this, because he will be responsible for the ruble / dollar exchange rate at the level of 90 ... 95. This will serve as the reason for his resignation. And the next prime minister, who will return the ruble to its former place and also not himself, but under the influence of macroeconomic reasons, will already be the successor to the GDP as President, so be careful here. This man is already in sight, but for the time being does not shine - is being tested in the lower echelon.

But it will not be soon. Not this fiscal year. This year you will only see gas prices (naturally cartel conspiracy of small wholesalers, are there still people in the Russian Federation who believe this?) And Pension reform, which with a creak, but will go to the masses. Believe me, it’s necessary for your recovery. And this is not even shock therapy, if you want to see shock therapy, take a look at the curb in Ukraine, where they solve this problem through the disposal of pensioners, the more they die out, the easier the load on PF. Believe Putin - it’s necessary! There is simply no other way out; all countries have already gone through this. The problem is not Russian - the problem is global, the aging of the nation is called.

But Russia will go through all this and become only stronger. Because you have the right steering. We would have such a thing! .. Then let me take my leave and apologize if I upset anyone. The financial collapse, which I mentioned above, will not happen soon - in the years 2020-21 already at the second term of Trump, so do not rush to get upset, especially since in the end for Russia everything will end well! And until this time, there is no particular reason for Dmitry Anatolyevich to worry, especially since he will not go completely into oblivion, but to a post specially created for this. (Putin, as you know, does not abandon his people! All the more so, a person who has faithfully served him as an adsorbent all these years, adsorbing on himself all the negativity in domestic politics, without which, you know, you can’t do without these posts). We have a good king - it's all the lousy boyars come across! (I’m joking, of course, but in every joke, you yourself know what is ...).