Fateful decision for Ukraine: what awaits the country after March 15


As they say, if you want peace, prepare for war. While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling armored vehicles and additional forces to the demarcation line in Donbass, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares that he has on his table a new plan for a peaceful settlement in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, a very specific date sounded in the program of journalist Dmitry Gordon, March 15, 2021, which could become “fateful and difficult” for the Ukrainian people. What are we all left to wait for at the beginning of next week?


Obviously, we are talking about the situation in Donbass. Neither Minsk-1 nor Minsk-2 led to the settlement of this territorial problem on the borders of Russia and Ukraine. And on the evening of March 9, the representative of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy Andriy Yermak announced the existence of a certain new plan, agreed with Germany and France and finalized by Ukraine itself:

If Russia today declares its readiness to end the war, the reintegration of the occupied territories into Ukraine, the return of our citizens, then this will meet all the criteria ... We are waiting for the position of Russia.

Moscow responded to this with bewilderment, since Russia is one of the parties to the so-called Normandy format, and therefore no plan alternative to the Minsk agreements could arise without agreement with it. A number of domestic experts suggested that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is simply leading some of his own political games aimed at the domestic audience of Ukraine, and March 15 is just another "horror story". But let's try to imagine that everything is not as simple as it seems at first glance.

Ukrainian propagandist Dmitry Gordon stated literally the following:

I think we will face difficult trials ahead of us. I think that March 15, Monday, will be a difficult day for Ukrainian society. Because, I think, the information that will be announced on March 15 will become historical for Ukraine.

Why is the beginning of next week at risk of becoming a historic day? Will the further fate of Donbass finally be resolved on the 15th? But why can it get heavy? To answer this question, it is necessary to decide from which bell tower we are looking at this problem.

Both Kiev and Moscow do not recognize the independent status of the DPR and LPR. Both Moscow and Kiev stand on the fact that the unrecognized republics should return to Ukraine. The only question is on whose terms. In accordance with the Minsk agreements, Russia will transfer control over the border of the DPR and LPR to the Ukrainian army after local elections and constitutional reform in Independent, where the special status of “separate regions” will be fixed. It is believed that with the help of such "decentralization" the Kremlin will introduce its "Trojan horse" into Ukraine, which will lead to its reformatting. Kiev is rejecting such a scenario, despite the signing of the Minsk agreements, pointing out that Ukraine is a sovereign country, and there is nothing for it to indicate here what form of government to establish. Allegedly, after the return of the DPR and LPR to the Independence Square, other regions will also demand special rights, and the country will almost collapse. Based on this, we can conclude that the "hard test" for the Ukrainian society will be the execution of "Minsk-2" on the terms of Moscow. But is it really so?

Implementation of the Minsk agreements


First of all, you need to understand that the Kremlin is totally dependent on Kiev for gas transit to Europe. A 5-year agreement, which is extremely disadvantageous for Russia, has already been signed. The main stake in "Gazprom" was made on the construction of two bypass pipelines, but because of the US sanctions, "Nord Stream-2" remains dead weight at the bottom of the Baltic Sea. After the change of power in the United States, Berlin and Washington are negotiating some kind of compromise on the fate of this gas pipeline. Variants have already been voiced in which the start of operation of Nord Stream 2 is directly linked to the preservation of transit through the Ukrainian GTS, as well as to the settlement of the conflict in Donbass. Naturally, in favor of Ukraine.

In fact, the execution of "Minsk-2" even in the current conditions is a victory for Kiev, no matter what the assorted "analyst experts" may say. By stopping hostilities, Ukraine can carry out certain reforms, and then receive from Russia the return of control over the border. That's it, this is where the history of the independent DPR and LPR will end, and everything that happens there will become a purely internal Ukrainian affair. Tell me, who will then prevent Kiev from playing back the previously carried out reforms, as President Joe Biden is doing in the United States right now, getting rid of "Trump's legacy"?

In exchange, Gazprom will receive a working Nord Stream-2 and a Ukrainian GTS, which needs to be maintained and repaired. A bonus for the performance of Minsk-2 by Russia may even be the lifting of some sanctions from Europe for “good behavior”. True, then the issue of Crimea will inevitably appear on the agenda, one should not forget. In this context, Mr. Gordon's complaints about the coming "difficult trials" look very hypocritical.

Casus belli


The option with preparations for a full-scale military operation in the Donbas still looks more realistic. The rating of President Zelensky is low, but the Ukrainian cheers-patriotic public is inspired by the "Karabakh scenario." To raise the popularity of the "servant of the people" and be re-elected for a second term, it will be quite enough for him to have partial success, taking control of at least some new settlements in order to demonstrate the valor of the revived Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this vein, statements about a "peaceful settlement" look truly Jesuitical. Pay attention to the words of the representative of Zelensky, Andriy Yermak:

Russia must clearly say whether it is ready to follow the path of establishing peace in Donbass or whether it does not want peace in Ukraine, then the whole world will understand this.

It is quite possible that on March 15 Kiev will demonstratively extend its hand to Moscow, rolling out unrealizable conditions to it in order to shift the responsibility onto it. And then it will launch an offensive on the DPR and LPR, but Russia will be guilty, which will fall under new sanctions when it tries to provide military assistance to Donbass.
28 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) 11 March 2021 16: 13
    +1
    what is wrong with the Karabakh scenario? the Americans were on the side of the Armenians and put pressure on Turkey. Did it help the Armenians? Biden has forgotten what the Pentagon is called and has not called Zeltzman yet. Forgotten, and what were the sanctions against Russia after the numerous boilers in which dill was boiled and fried?
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 11 March 2021 16: 39
    +9
    as much as possible about the sanctions, they have always been and will be, regardless of the situation in the Donbass. But Putin must finally keep his word, I remember he told the outskirts of the country - twitch, you will lose statehood. Now the situation completely coincides with Churchill's famous expression about shame and war, Russia as a result received both sanctions and an inevitable war
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 11 March 2021 17: 20
      +2

      neither Russia nor Poland nor the United States argues with this card.
    2. Little Muck_2 Offline Little Muck_2
      Little Muck_2 (Little Muck) 11 March 2021 21: 12
      -3
      Putin said a lot of things: about pensions and the Constitution, for example. In general, the leader loves to chat in public.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 11 March 2021 16: 55
    +8
    And why did they decide that the Kremlin is totally dependent on Kiev for gas transit to Europe?
    There is the usual force majeure, when it is impossible to execute a deal for no reason. And gas can be distributed throughout the Russian Federation. Moreover, Russia refuses the dollar, which means it is not needed.
    1. Bakht Offline Bakht
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 11 March 2021 17: 05
      +3
      I agree. Russia is NOT dependent on transit through Ukraine. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, the transit and SP-2 will be covered with a copper basin. Where Europe finds gas is its own sexual affair.
      Ukraine and Europe TOTALLY depend on gas supplies to Europe. If this were not the case, then why are these two sides so worried about gas transit?
      1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
        A.Lex (Secret information) 12 March 2021 08: 03
        +3
        The end of gas supplies to Europe is the end of the European economy. This is an unapplicable fact - the economy of Europe will completely fall under the Yankees' dependence, goods from Europe will cease to be competitive in the world due to soaring energy prices. And Ukraine ... it is, at least so, even though it is a deceased ... it's only a matter of time - how long the agony will last.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. The comment was deleted.
    2. Miffer Offline Miffer
      Miffer (Sam Miffers) 11 March 2021 18: 42
      -4
      And gas can be distributed throughout the Russian Federation. Moreover, Russia refuses the dollar, so it is not needed.

      Who is not needed? Gas or $$$? If $$$ are not needed, then I (so be it!) Will accept them as a gift from you in any condition and in unlimited quantities.
  4. AlenLes Offline AlenLes
    AlenLes (AlenLes) 11 March 2021 17: 12
    +1
    Zelenskiy can announce anything to anyone. Moscow and the Kremlin do not talk to him personally, and we will not fight with Ukraine (this is like fighting ourselves). Moscow and the Kremlin will talk to Biden, and I have a rough idea of ​​what they will say to him))
    1. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 12 March 2021 19: 53
      0
      Moscow and the Kremlin will talk to Biden, and I have a rough idea of ​​what they will say to him

      - can you share? And that is very interesting! I can't imagine what Moscow, together with the Kremlin, will tell Biden about this ...
  5. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 11 March 2021 17: 24
    0
    And before this date, and after - the orderlies from the psychiatric hospital are waiting.
  6. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 11 March 2021 18: 18
    0
    Mr. Marzhetskiy, make a request on GOOGLE and get the answer:

    The founder of the "GORDON" publication, Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon explained what he meant when he said on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel that next Monday, March 15, would be a difficult day for the country, very important information would be made public that would make this day a watershed for society. On March 10, on the air of Echo Moskvy, the journalist revealed what was at stake.

    On March 15, as far as I know, a Bellingcat investigation film about the Wagnerians is scheduled to be released. About a special operation to capture the Wagnerians, which was ineptly leaked by the Russian agents of the Russian Federation. This is the first time I have voiced this information: since Bellingcat decided to interview some more employees of the Office of the President of Ukraine in Kiev and is doing so now, the release of the film may be postponed for a week or two.

    1. Miffer Offline Miffer
      Miffer (Sam Miffers) 11 March 2021 18: 45
      -2
      On the special operation to capture the Wagnerites, which was ineptly leaked by Russian agents

      Was the special operation leaked, Poligrafych?
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 12 March 2021 08: 05
      +1
      Since when is the "echo of matzo" a reliable source?
  7. VladZ Offline VladZ
    VladZ (Vladimir) 11 March 2021 18: 22
    +1
    Yes, Gordon has already revealed his next intriguing and cryptic statement. The point is not about the plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attack on Donbass, but about the release of the film "Belingcat" about the investigation of the super-duper operation of the US and Ukrainian special services to capture the "Wagnerites", allegedly failed with the help of the Zelensky administration.
    1. Akuzenka Offline Akuzenka
      Akuzenka (Alexander) 12 March 2021 10: 07
      +2
      Ahahaha.

      They expected bloodshed from him, but he ate the siskin!
  8. AICO Offline AICO
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 11 March 2021 18: 55
    0
    Katz offers to surrender !!!
    ©
  9. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 11 March 2021 19: 15
    +1
    "The variant with preparation for a full-scale military operation in the Donbass. The rating of President Zelensky is low, but the Ukrainian cheers-patriotic public is inspired by the "Karabakh scenario." To raise the popularity of the "servant of the people" and be re-elected for a second term, partial success will be enough for him, taking control of at least some new settlements, to demonstrate the valor of the revived APU. "

    The author contrived in one paragraph to issue two mutually exclusive statements.

    By the way, this time for some reason he was going to "crush Moscow's aggression" ....MVD of Ukraine.. belay



    PS The "Avakovskie strategists" at least have not forgotten that in the next couple of weeks (and maybe even earlier) Ukraine will be covered by another national disaster in the form of a spring thaw.
    So the "offensive" is postponed again. recourse
  10. Radziminsky Victor (Radziminsky Victor) 12 March 2021 07: 44
    +2
    The British expose film is to remove the adviser-Ermak, on which
    Does Zelensky keep everything? For 100% event management in Ukraine and Ukrainian
    top? And then they will take on two or three oligarchs. Clearing space for yourself.

    Ukraine wants to announce - "The severance of diplomatic relations with Russia!" Maybe. A blow to the Ukrainians.
    Just not clear
    what does it give Britain. Preparing for future hostilities?
    The British military was brought to the Donbass. Tanks roll to Donbass, from Donbass and back.
    Is this training, exercises in case of war?
    But it seems that the United States and Britain do not see the situation ready. What are they missing?
    It is desirable that a united
    Ukrainian-Moldovan-Georgian victorious army? But this may not be soon.
    They're letting in the fog. Dust in space is not measurable more than real steps.
    But there is one BUT - Putin is unexpected, sharp. I want to be too
    unexpected and fast.
  11. AND Offline AND
    AND 12 March 2021 15: 29
    0
    Hello dear experts! If Russia today declares its readiness to end the war, the reintegration of the occupied territories into Ukraine, the return of our citizens, then this will meet all the criteria ... , that all this time they fought with her?))) Or will they take their words back ???
  12. AND Offline AND
    AND 12 March 2021 15: 42
    0
    Quote: Bakht
    I agree. Russia is NOT dependent on transit through Ukraine. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, the transit and SP-2 will be covered with a copper basin. Where Europe finds gas is its own sexual affair.
    Ukraine and Europe TOTALLY depend on gas supplies to Europe. If this were not the case, then why are these two sides so worried about gas transit?

    There is also such a thing: the Svyatogorsk gap: Kiev is preparing an ecological catastrophe in the Donbass. https://topcor.ru/18964-svjatogorskij-razryv-kiev-gotovit-na-donbasse-jekologicheskuju-katastrofu.html
  13. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 12 March 2021 19: 54
    +1
    But I think that on March 15, no one there will say anything to anyone ... New, at least ...
  14. Alexander Nazarov (Alexander Nazarov) 14 March 2021 19: 34
    +1
    They will poke their attention to Donbass, they will rake all the way to Kiev!
  15. Vladimir Moroz_2 (Vladimir Moroz) 15 March 2021 06: 33
    0
    The author of this article has successfully joined the ranks of "variegated experts".
  16. Victor_5 Offline Victor_5
    Victor_5 (Victor Chernyshko) 15 March 2021 11: 25
    -3
    The author, write seemingly clever things, but everything seems to me, as a resident of Donbass, to put it mildly naive reflections .. So, the most important thing. When Moscow decided ahem, to support the creation of the "LDNR", for what, was it necessary for the Moscow, never even the fanatics of collecting Russian lands? All paid political lukas, no matter if they are fake or hot, or with Mkhatov's pronouns, keep repeating one thing, "They say they will influence the United States and Kiev," they say they will be accommodating, and a lot of people from the DPR with refugees and an overwhelming burden for the budget of the Russian Federation will influence Washington. Don't you think that this is, to put it mildly, a lie? And if you influence the policy of Kiev, then you need to give money to burn tires in front of the Rada, and the rebels demanding the resignation of Poroshenko-Zelensky and other bio-waste? And the second, the main question on the Nord Streams and other life-giving things for the economy, and the tranquility of the government, the people did not eat the last without salt, dear Author, when they made decisions directly to say -We support the DPR and answer sho they are doing there, smart people knew about the future downed Boeings, which will hang on Putin, disasters, terrorist attacks, and he knows what the SBU will come up with, under the instruction of the State Department? Did you know that such intrigues would be built, mom do not cry, out of the blue super-sanctions, the collapse of the ruble, and so on? You knew, right? After all, of all the irons Lavrov, Zakharova, and our dear and beloved VVP directly spoke of the strongest pressure on the country's economy from "partners"? After all, no one at gunpoint forced this DNR to support? It could have been easier, they say, Russia does not recognize the coup, and we will give shelter to all those who disagree with it and give them citizenship. All!!! No sanctions, no mines in my yard (this is so, it flew repeatedly)
  17. Siberia1054 Offline Siberia1054
    Siberia1054 (Alexander Ivanovich) 15 March 2021 13: 47
    0
    March 15 has arrived, and what has changed? Donbass surrendered and without exception returned to the Ruin on the terms of the criminal Bandera regime, or did Moscow agree to change the Minsk agreements in favor of Kiev? This is another provocation of the "go ..... whom" scribbler who fulfills his thirty pieces of silver. And he will have the same fate!
  18. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 16 March 2021 15: 51
    -1
    Quote: Little Muk_2
    Putin said a lot of things: about pensions and the Constitution, for example. In general, the leader loves to chat in public.

    When he talks to the public like that, he shines and shines with complacency. Becoming more and more like Kim Jong Un.
  19. misanthrope Offline misanthrope
    misanthrope (misanthrope) 16 March 2021 19: 35
    0
    There is no braver fighter in the world than a frightened crest.