Transit Wars. Why Ukraine was doomed from the beginning

Most people are so arranged that they can't see beyond their noses. Observing the abyss into which Ukraine is sliding (or rather, it has already slipped, and does not even croak!), They are ready to blame anyone for this (from the Ukrainians themselves, to Putin, who did not come and did not save), except for real customers and beneficiaries this action. This text is intended to remove the veil of secrecy over many issues that have accumulated since 2014.

After reading, you will understand that no one could change the course of events, Ukraine was doomed by the very fact of its location between the EU and the Russian Federation. Because the world is ruled not by gold, as many here mistakenly believe, and not by the dollar, but by His Majesty the Transit. Logistics is everything!

Geography rules! War for China

I'll start a little from afar. It so happened by the will of fate that some countries were given raw materials and energy resources, others human (in quantitative and qualitative terms), others financial and intellectual (I'm talking about Israel, which was deprived of the first two, but, nevertheless, survived and will live ). And to some, God did not give anything - it is clear that "this is their fate." Well, let's not talk about sad things, because God gave everything to Russia. And the most important thing is its geographical position between East and West, at the intersection of trade and transport routes. Ukraine is also lucky in this sense, but we can all observe how it disposed of this wealth in real time, without leaving the TV.

The reality is that at this point in time there are only three global markets in the world - the half-billion market of the EU countries, the 400 million-strong market of the United States and Canada, as well as more than two and a half billion market of Southeast Asia (China, Japan and neighboring countries of the South East Asia). And for access to them, as well as for preventing other countries from accessing them, all bloody wars unfolded, which many interpret as the intrigues of world imperialism, the intrigues of the villain-Putin and the like nonsense - each in its own way, depending on awareness and measure fantasies of the author. Below I will explain how transit control can solve everything, and then you will understand why the United States spends such an astronomical budget to maintain the combat capability of its army, and especially its Naval Forces.

China has everything to be self-sufficient and happy and not depend on anyone - it has financial resources, it has 1,4 billion of its own population, there are even advanced Technology in certain sectors of the national economy, which allowed the PRC to become the 1st the economy the world. There is only a very small thing - raw materials and energy resources to support this economy and high rates of its development. It is for the possession of these resources that the war unfolded between the growing and gaining strength of the PRC's predator and the decrepit world hegemon of the United States, who does not want to give up his place under the Sun to anyone.

Countries such as Libya, Syria and Iraq paid with their statehood simply to prevent China from accessing their natural resources. Iran for the same reason came under sanctions, from under which it was able to get out only after 20 years and only thanks to the mediation of the Russian Federation. Why these particular countries, and not some others, you ask me? And only because it was there that raw materials, which were not controlled by transnational corporations (TNCs), were still located, nationalized by the governments of these countries, as a result of which transnational players could not buy them by conventional methods. This fact became for them the final verdict, and there began what began (wars organized and sponsored from abroad, swept away and buried the regimes taking place there).

China is maturing before our eyes, lacking fuel and energy resources, realizing the impossibility, due to the military superiority of the Russian Federation, to get into its market by force (this is a stone in the garden of those who believe that Putin is completely in vain spending money on strengthening army and navy, naively believing that friendship with the Celestial Empire is with us forever); So this new friend of ours, who had already climbed into the African market with one foot and was snapping his teeth fiercely, looking at the resource-rich market of the Middle East and the Gulf, suddenly discovered to his surprise that the box had slammed shut. Right in front of your nose! Someone there unleashed some kind of massacre, demolished existing regimes, broke existing borders and turned flourishing countries into a burning hell. And China, knowing exactly to whom it owes this happiness, cannot do anything about it. Comrade Xi, accepting this as a fact, was forced to wipe himself off and began to furiously build up his naval potential, preparing to resist the American naval blockade in the South China Sea (policies gunboats have not been canceled yet!) for the right to freely dabble in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and receive on water what he does not have, in exchange for shipping what he has (the fight for control over sea communications is the lot of all sea powers, in unlike the continental ones, to which the Russian Federation belongs).

The rest of the Gulf countries, rich in natural resources, passed this cup (the cup that befell Syria, Libya and Iraq with Iran) only because they played and play by the rules that their overseas and European masters write for them, in whose plans absolutely does not include access to their resources of China rearing its head. And not at all out of harm and not out of principle, but only so that the one and a half billion China could not transfer the structure of its national economy to a closed cycle, after which the decrepit hegemon will finally lose the last possibilities of external influence on its politics and economy. This will happen when the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the PRC (in other words, the number of the population and its purchasing power) reach such figures, which will create such a volume of domestic demand that will make this region of habitation self-sufficient. And China has already reached these figures (that's why we are seeing all this bedlam!).

The resource base of black Africa has long been tightly controlled by European and American corporations, where, just like in the Middle East, hotbeds of bloody wars, strife and anarchy are deliberately maintained, which, however, did not prevent China from getting in there too (after all, the Black Continent is a storehouse of minerals and minerals). As well as in Venezuela, which is the owner of the largest proven oil reserves (moreover, nationalized by Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez). Now, Russia has been added to the list of these countries through the efforts of the 44th US President Obama. Having climbed into Ukraine, the States pushed the Russian Federation to search for alternative sales channels for its hydrocarbons, forcing Moscow to turn its face to the East. What the States have forgotten in Ukraine, more on that below.

Abduction of Europa

Many people still naively believe that the United States staged a coup in Ukraine solely with the aim of annoying Russia by creating a bleeding abscess on its borders and a potential foothold for its own missiles. I must disappoint you. The States wanted to spit on Russia. Where is the States and where is Russia? RF is not included in the circle of American global interests. It is not a shame for us to hear this - we are too small a player for them (albeit with the largest territory and the most powerful army after the American one). Small player from the point of view of the sales market. A gas station in Europe - this is actually the case. And there is nothing offensive here. In the global food chain, we still occupy only this niche.

At the same time, there are only three global markets, as I have already mentioned, at the moment: American (USA and Canada - 370 million people), European (EU countries - 500 million people) and Asian (China, Japan and adjacent countries of Southeast Asia - 2,5 , XNUMX billion people). Note, Russia is not there. When the States climbed into Ukraine, they looked not at the Russian Federation, but at the EU. Their goal was not Russia, but Europe. The war broke out over the European market. When the predators have nothing to eat, they begin to eat each other (the Russian Federation would have eaten too, but only too sharp, thanks to Putin, the Russian Federation turned out to have fangs). And the EU has no fangs! European predators were found to be herbivores. Well, who is the doctor to them?

"F @ ck the EU!"

You, of course, remember Victoria Nuland's famous phrase in the subtitle. She explains everything! The main and only goal of the United States' entry into Ukraine in 2014 was its gas pipe to the EU, laying a paw on which it was possible to put the EU on a short leash, blackmailing by cutting off gas and thereby controlling the price for it in Europe. And through it, influencing the final cost of European products, making them uncompetitive American in foreign markets, thereby changing the negative balance in the foreign trade balance between the EU and the United States to a positive one. As they say, nothing personal - it's just business. Let me remind you that the war was and is going on for the European market (500 million people).

America itself does not need a Ukrainian pipe for 100 years. From the word "absolutely". In the coffin, she "saw her in white sneakers." Through it, Russia can pump up to 142,5 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe (this is the throughput capacity of the Ukrainian GTS), given the EU's current demand of 600 billion cubic meters of gas per year (moreover, this demand as the Norwegian fields are depleted and its own gas consumption in the EU will only grow). So far, Russia occupied only a third of the European gas market, pumping there up to 200 billion cubic meters of gas per year, using for this, in addition to the Ukrainian pipe, the SP-1 (throughput capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas / year), the Yamal-EU gas pipeline ( 33 billion cubic meters / year) and the Turkish "Blue Stream" (16 billion cubic meters of gas / year). The remaining 66% of Europe's natural gas needs were offset by various suppliers of more expensive than piped liquefied natural gas (LNG), from Qatar to Algeria and Nigeria. Note that in 2014 neither America nor the Russian Federation was among them (Norway supplied pipe gas).

Now imagine for a second what happens if you turn off the valve on the Ukrainian pipe? That's right, the price of gas in Europe will instantly increase, after which it will kneel in front of the overseas elder brother who just wants to eat (nothing personal!), Giving him his market of such rich European Buratin without a fight. What is needed for this? It is correct that the villain-Putin invaded Ukraine in order to restore the statehood destroyed there by the "revolutionaries". After that, the western regions of Ukraine instantly become the stronghold of separatism and democracy (such a Donbass, on the contrary), which, with the support of the collective West, begin to repulse the insidious aggressor. And quite by chance, it is in these regions of Ukraine that the largest underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in Europe are located, and it is through them that the neck of the Ukrainian pipe goes to Slovakia. Naturally, the neck closes off instantly. The problem is solved! Europe is on its knees, Putin is in ... (add where yourself?). Although Putin and the Russian Federation were least interested in the States, I remind you that the war was over the EU market.

In this situation, it is pointless to scold Putin, he had no options at all. In addition to 36% of gas exports to Europe, the Ukrainian GTS also provided 51% of the RF budget revenues. Think, guys, 51% of the country's income is at stake, what should the director of the Russian Federation do? Even if the brilliant Russian army took control of the entire territory of Ukraine, crushing in the bud the beginning uprising in the western regions, even in this case, the United States would not lose anything. Putin would be forced to support all of Ukraine, and Europe would be forced to abandon the aggressor gas. How else ?! The aggressor must be punished! The EU would have no choice. The problem has been solved. The non-commissioned officer's widow whipped herself. Europe is on its knees. States in chocolate.

If we digress from the issue at hand, and remember what Russia was like in 2014, then we must admit the truth in the words of the 44th US President Barack Obama, "Russia was a gas station in Europe." Figuratively, of course. We supplied there not even gasoline or diesel fuel, but raw materials for the production of these (crude oil), as well as gas for electricity and heat generating capacities of the EU, i.e. in other words, we supplied hydrocarbons. Europe was 36% dependent on them, and we were 51% dependent on revenues from these exports (the share of oil and gas revenues in the RF budget revenues in 2014 reached its maximum and stopped at 51,3%). And in this situation it was not even clear who was hanging on whose hook? Are we on a European hook or is Europe on ours? Both Europe and the Russian Federation had a mutual interest, and only the States had no interests here. More precisely, their interest was in breaking off all the buzz for Russia and the EU. The calculation here was simple - Russia was and remains the existential enemy of the United States, and the EU is a competitor, for the market of which in the 21st century a war broke out under the code name “Abduction of Europe” (and all means are good in war!).

Europe tried to pull the Ukrainian blanket over itself, seizing the reins of control of the coup, and thereby defend its energy independence, but Victoria Nuland sent her with an iron hand in a certain direction, showing who was the boss and indicating to the EU its place on the rug in front of the American latrine.

I have to put an end to this. The article is too long. What happened in 2014 and why Ukraine did not have a chance to escape, I told. I explained the logic of Moscow's and Washington's actions, and I will tell you next time what will happen with the arrival of the new / old US administration and what the Kremlin should do in this situation.

Not saying goodbye. All the best.