Oil is becoming “black gold” again: pros and cons for Russia


The rise in world oil prices to a level that until recently seemed completely unrealistic to the absolute majority economic analysts, makes us think about the further dynamics of the cost of energy carriers and the consequences thereof.


Moreover, there is something to think about - we have at our disposal a number of fresh forecasts in this area, as well as some attempts to predict the situation that were made earlier. However, the main thing in this case is the prospects that the rise in the price of hydrocarbons promises specifically to the Russian economy.

"A barrel of 60 is fantastic ..." And you don't want a hundred ?!


We all remember the horrific collapse of the exchange prices for "black gold" caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the "oil war" between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which followed the failure of their attempts to reach agreements in the framework of OPEC +. After those years, during which the cost of the notorious barrel was calculated in an amount exceeding a hundred dollars or not much different from it, $ 25 per barrel of Brent sounded like a death sentence to the entire world oil industry. This, quite expectedly, gave rise to a whole wave of apocalyptic predictions regarding the "ruin", "impoverishment" and even the "collapse" of Russia, which were zealously generated by some expert centers and enthusiastically savoring the Western media. We survived, survived, did not break ... With the Saudis, due to our own attempts by primitive dumping to “clean up” and seize the world markets, who made more trouble for themselves than our share, we managed to agree. Hot eastern sheikhs turned out to be sane people, and, having learned from their own bitter experience the meaning of the Russian proverb about a bad world and a good quarrel, amicably and disciplinedly “screwed on the taps” on their own drilling rigs.

Alas, we had to do the same, but there was no time for fat ... From May to July 2020, world oil production was reduced by 9.7 million barrels. Oil stood, stood at the minimum price values, and moved slowly up. Each of her timid "steps" from the $ 40 per barrel mark, which was surpassed in November 2020, aroused enthusiasm in exporting countries and fueled their hopes that "everything will work out." By the middle of December last year, the "milestone" of fifty dollars per barrel was taken and the hearts of the oilmen began to beat faster in anticipation ...

At the same time, even at the beginning of this month, financial analysts from such serious institutions as the international rating agency Fitch and Saxo Bank, with a terribly smart look (and what else could these gentlemen have?) Talked about the frailty of life and the vicissitudes of fate of countries exporting hydrocarbons. “World oil prices, of course, show some positive dynamics against the background of a stable decline in production and hopes for an early start of mass vaccination against coronavirus,” but $ 60 per barrel is pure fantasy. No, no, no, gentlemen! “Demand is unstable, the vaccination situation is still unclear,” so the cost of a barrel may well, what good, even fall “in the short term”. The $ 60, according to these experts, was "too important a psychological barrier" to be overcome like that easily and quickly. They overcame ... At the same time, the "prophets" from the World Bank were also put to shame, who had built the following price "chain" somewhat earlier: $ 41 per barrel in 2020, $ 44 in 2021, and only fifty, at best, in a year 2022-m. As you can see, the "black gold" all these marks easily "slipped through" and, apparently, is just beginning to "pick up speed" on world exchanges. And now forecasts of a completely different kind began to sound from all sides. Christian Malek, chief analyst of one of the largest and most reputable American banks in the financial world, JPMorgan, for the oil and gas sector, says that in the very near future the world is not expecting an oversupply, but a shortage of oil! And, quite possibly, very soon we will see the price per barrel in the good old 100 dollars, or even higher! 80 per barrel, according to Curry, is more than a real prospect for this year.

Wouldn't drown in "petrodollars" ...


A large article on this topic, which extensively cites both Malek and his colleagues from another leading US bank, Goldman Sachs, have recently published the "flagship" of the world economic press - the Financial Times. According to the theory defended in the pages of this edition, we are not dealing with a random coincidence of circumstances or some temporary fluctuations in the market situation. According to the firm conviction of respected financiers, the world economy is entering a new "oil super cycle" before our eyes, which brings absolutely enchanting prospects to the countries exporting "black gold". In assessing the time frame of the previous such period, experts differ, however, insignificantly: someone believes that it began in the late 90s, with the start of the rapid industrial development of China and other Asian countries, and ended in the crisis of 2008. Some are inclined to calculate it from 2003 to 2014, until the moment when oil prices began a small but stable decline.

One way or another, but according to analysts, the current government programs aimed at overcoming the negative economic consequences of the pandemic, the cost of which on a global scale is already estimated at tens of trillions of dollars, will certainly lead to the fact that there will be a serious shortage of energy resources on the planet, and oil, above all ... Financial experts quite convincingly substantiate such their conclusions, based on everyday moments that are understandable to everyone. The "recovery" programs of states trying to revive their own economies that have considerably "sagged" due to the "coronacrisis", they believe, are mainly aimed at supporting farms with an average and even lower income level. "People of this level do not drive Tesla, but on SUVs and pickups, which means that a lot of gasoline will be required," Goldman Sachs says, referring to their own compatriots.

In any case, in the current difficult conditions, most countries will try to "squeeze the maximum" out of traditional energy and transport, which do not require large-scale transformations and costly additional investments. An example of this is the same China, again buying up "black gold" in hundreds of millions of barrels. The very shortage of hydrocarbons that can make their prices skyrocket will arise if world consumption grows by 1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day. Is it real? Until recently, such things seemed fantastic - after all, the coronavirus pandemic has reduced daily oil consumption by 10 million barrels - in 2020 compared to 2019.

According to the most optimistic forecasts of the International Energy Agency and OPEC, demand in 2021 will be able to reach a volume of 96 - 96.5 million barrels per day. Pre-crisis daily consumption of 100 million conventional "barrels" is still unattainable. So where does the deficit come from? It will inevitably arise if the exporting countries continue to be just as honest with each other and continue to adhere to the principles of moderation and accuracy in the issue of recovery of production. So far, this is the way it is - from January 1 of this year, the volume of oil supplied to the world market should have increased by almost 2 million barrels per day. However, the very likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus on the planet, which doctors started talking about, forced exporters to quadruple this amount - the OPEC + countries continue their activities in the face of a daily production cut of 7.2 million barrels, perfectly remembering the lessons of the recent past and avoiding unnecessary risk. After all, after a new collapse, the market will recover even longer and harder ...

Incidentally, everything that is happening now fits into the framework of a fairly recent forecast made by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA). There, as is customary among professionals, they developed three scenarios for the development of the situation with energy prices, trying to calculate their dynamics right up to 2050. In the so-called "base" or medium variant, the price of oil in the future will be $ 95 per barrel. Under the most negative circumstances, it will “slide” to $ 48. And with a positive course of events, providing for a stable recovery of the world economy, it will come to $ 173 per barrel. So, dear compatriots, put aside despondency and uncertainty about the future - contrary to the forecasts of numerous spiteful critics, everything is potentially going very well for the domestic economy.

True, this raises a number of problems of a different, more global and long-term nature. Stable and steady growth in the value of "black gold" will undoubtedly fill the treasury of Russia generously, will allow the state to fulfill and even probably increase its own social obligations to citizens, strengthen the country's defense ... Just do not forget that after any rise is inevitable a recession follows, and the flow of "petrodollars" will not be inexhaustible and endless. All of the above points are certainly important, but if our country does not invest a significant part of its revenues from energy exports in reducing the dependence of its own economy on it, sooner or later there will be trouble. And the domestic oil industry itself needs major modernization and modification.

The reserves of easily recoverable energy carriers are melting, and over time Russia risks being left with "storehouses" of oil and gas, which will simply be unprofitable with the current methods and methods of their production. Not so long ago, the International Monetary Fund, which is traditionally haunted by our wealth, prepared an extensive report on this topic, in which, not without obvious gloating, it was pointed out that "a long period of oil prices at the level of $ 40 per barrel and below", rather all, will cause "irreparable damage" to the domestic oil and gas sector. As you can see, this period will not be long, no matter how someone wants it. Fate again gives us a wonderful chance - it remains only to use it wisely.
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  1. Uneven Offline Uneven
    Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 18 February 2021 11: 08
    -3
    It’s high time for the United States to mend relations with Iran. The Persians were tired of waiting for the opening of oil markets for them.
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 18 February 2021 12: 23
      0
      Well, they were waiting for advice from you, sad Ukrainian. The Persians are now deciding their affairs with China.
      Your pans will soon be on the sidelines. Where Russia should have been with its economy torn to shreds - but something went wrong and on the sidelines, after a snowfall, millions of American households ended up - the arbiters of fate are limping)


      Stocks of easily recoverable energy resources are melting, and over time Russia risks being left with oil and gas "pantries" that will simply be unprofitable with the current methods and methods of their production

      such stocks run out all over the world - where they were actively used. So the less cheap oil, the more expensive it will be. Profitability determines the demand, which will not go anywhere, because a person always needs food, water and energy.

      But if our country does not invest a significant part of the revenues from energy exports in reducing the dependence of its own economy on it, sooner or later there will be trouble.

      non-resource exports are growing every year, at least one plant is built in Russia per day (there are more than 360 of them built per year). So the country has long been investing in economic development
      1. Uneven Offline Uneven
        Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 18 February 2021 15: 21
        -2
        1)
        Where Russia should have been with its economy torn to shreds - but something went wrong and on the sidelines, after a snowfall, millions of American households ended up - the arbiters of fate are limping)

        The only thing that the sellers of Russian resources can still hope for is the weather and natural disasters. The Kremlin mafia has successfully profiled all other trump cards.
        The problem is that natural phenomena have little dependence on Putin. However, more and more foreigners trade in Russian resources. From the "Russian" ones, only the places of production gradually remain.

        2)
        non-resource exports are growing every year, at least one plant is being built in Russia every day

        An absolute lie!
        1. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
          gorenina91 (Irina) 18 February 2021 17: 10
          -2
          An absolute lie!

          - Lies in a cube (in the third degree) ...
          - Exactly the same lies can be laid out about the new "built polyclinics"; "hospitals"; "hospitals"; "dispensaries" and so on and so on ...
          - But the cemeteries are "open" ... and "new graves are buried" ... - simply immeasurable ...--- "invincible competitors" ... - those "new factories" and "new clinics" ... however ...
          - My plus to you ...
  2. Captain stoner Offline Captain stoner
    Captain stoner (Captain Stoner) 18 February 2021 13: 06
    -3
    We survived, survived, did not break ..

    Bravo!
    I just can't understand why a country that sells oil and gas and has the entire periodic table in its bowels should "break down"? And I have not heard that any oil-producing countries such as Norway, the Emirates and other Cathars "break down".
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 18 February 2021 13: 14
      -1
      I just can't understand

      Well, I believe in what you will ever realize. I always believe in the best.

      You will understand why the united Europe did not go to Norway - but Russia did
      Why cities were not destroyed in Norway, but in Russia with pleasure and more than once
      Why are they not imposed sanctions against the Saudis against the Norwegians, but against Russia?

      Norway and the Emirates, Qatar are in one block - the block is called - the sub-USA - and the USA does not care about the graters of the aborigines among themselves - the aborigines are put in a stall and do one thing - and the USA covers them - from whatever they break

      having in its bowels the entire periodic table

      There are no less fossils in Africa. But Europe at one time also hindered its development. And Africa has stopped developing. And minerals are now being mined in Africa by the French, Germans, Americans, Canadians and anyone else - and Africans probably do not understand why.

      Well, nothing, I think, too, someday they will realize
    2. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 18 February 2021 21: 47
      +1
      I just can't understand why a country that sells oil and gas and has the entire periodic table in its bowels should "break down"? And I have not heard that any oil-producing countries such as Norway, the Emirates and other Cathars "break down".

      These countries should not be "broken" ..
      About the same Norway.
      In the last pan-European war, the question was who was the first to occupy it, Great Britain or Germany.
      The Anglo-Saxons were faster in the championship, but the Germans were more successful in terms of results.
      Nobody asked the Norwegians at all. repeat
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 18 February 2021 14: 58
    0
    The usual competition. We lower prices - competitors are blown away - we raise prices. It's time to catch up.
    Ardent greetings to the adepts of the shale revolution laughing
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 18 February 2021 21: 23
      +3
      The usual competition. We lower prices - competitors are blown away - we raise prices. It's time to catch up.
      Ardent greetings to the adepts of the shale revolution laughing

      Judging by the number of minusers, the adherents of the shale revolution are trying to warm up by assiduously tapping on the keyboard. laughing
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 18 February 2021 21: 56
        +1
        Glad I helped them keep warm good By the way, can this be attributed to green energy? what
  4. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 18 February 2021 21: 20
    +2
    The rise in world oil prices to a level that until recently seemed completely unrealistic to the absolute majority of economic analysts, makes us think about the further dynamics of the cost of energy carriers and their consequences.

    Serious scientists have long argued that the local and very short-term climate warming on the planet is coming to an end.

    However, Greta Thunberg's opinion won out.

    PS This is me about the level of competence of most "economic analysts".
  5. Praskovya Offline Praskovya
    Praskovya (Praskovya) 19 February 2021 12: 08
    -1
    Plus, the oligarchs will get rich even more.
    Minus - gasoline will rise in price again.