Russia takes half of the transit of Belarusian oil products from Lithuania


It seems that the ice has finally broken in solving the old transit problem between Belarus and Russia. Yesterday, President Lukashenko signed a draft agreement with Moscow on the export of oil products through Russian ports. In the West, however, this decision of Minsk is considered a “big mistake”, because of which Belarus will be the loser. Is it really?


The issue of transferring Belarusian exports to Russia has a long history. Traditionally, since the times of the USSR, it was the Baltic States that were our trade gateways to Europe. Thanks to the developed infrastructure, well-functioning logistics and convenient geographic location, it was objectively profitable to send Russian and Belarusian cargo flows through the ports of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. But Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn cut down the branch on which they sat so comfortably. Their Russophobic policy ultimately forced Moscow to begin the process of transferring exports to our part of the Baltic, where port capacities were expanded and new terminals built. As the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining.

Minsk stubbornly held on to neighboring Lithuania, dodging an offer to use the Russian Ust-Luga. The main argument against was the increase in costs due to the increased transport leverage. "Evil tongues" said that in fact Belarus did not want to show Russian customs officials what was really there and in what volumes they were exporting. But the last straw, of course, was the events of the summer and autumn of 2020, which broke relations between Minsk and Vilnius, which directly supported the “President Sveta” and introduced personal sanctions against the Belarusian leadership. In response, President Lukashenko promised to teach Lithuania a lesson by taking away from it export flows, which account for about 30% of the Klaipeda port's income.

The well-known German edition DW called this decision "export contrary to logic" and predicted negative consequences for Belarus in the form of an increase in the cost of petroleum products and a decrease in their competitiveness in the European market. However, the Germans in this matter shrugged their hearts, passing off wishful thinking.

At first, in accordance with the draft agreement, only 9,8 million tons of Belarusian oil products will go through Russian ports, which is about half of the total export volume. These are gasoline, fuel oil and engine oil. It will be valid until 2023 with the possibility of automatic renewal. The second half, presumably, at least before the expiration of the specified period, will still fall on the Baltic transit.

Secondly, operators of domestic port terminals confirmed their readiness to provide Belarusians with discounts, provided that the cooperation will be long-term. Moscow also spoke about discounts up to 50% on the railway tariff for Minsk.

It turns out that the increase in transport costs from the transfer of transit to Ust-Luga will be compensated for by Belarus, which means that there should not be a decrease in the competitiveness of its products on the European market. At the same time, until 2023, President Lukashenko will apparently keep the Lithuanian transit, which will account for the second half of export volumes. It is possible that in such a simple way the Belarusian partners will solve the problem of what they would not like to show to the Russian customs. Perhaps there is some tacit compromise on this sensitive issue.

Further, with regard to the interests of Russia itself. In order for the "Old Man" not to suddenly change his mind, the agreement will be concluded only in accordance with the take-or-pay principle (take or pay). This means that Minsk will have to pay for transit services for 9,8 million tons of oil products in any case, even if it sends them through Klaipeda. The volumes of transit through domestic railways and ports will also grow, which will also bring some money, despite decent discounts. It is quite possible that Belarusian mineral fertilizers will follow the oil products through Ust-Luga in the future.

Well, and, finally, the price of the Russophobic policy for the Baltic states will increase, which can also be considered a political success.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 17 February 2021 17: 23
    +2
    There were some estimates .... redirecting cargo traffic to Russian ports by about 1/3, the great combiner is not ready for more. In addition, apparently the beauty and pride of the agrarians had their eyes on the pipe. Transneft is constantly being checked, the tax has been raised (naturally in the fight for the environment), but the Belarusian pipe, as it turns out, does not spoil nature, what can you say about our totalitarian one. In general, nothing changes ... to paraphrase popular wisdom, degenerative scoliosis only cremation will fix it. Where the multi-vector wanders in the fog, life will show.

    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 17 February 2021 17: 54
      0
      that is OK. Lukashenka bends, bends - and fate itself and logic will bring Belarus into Russia.

      As if these farmsteads not wanting the opposite. It's just that his last name will not be in the composition of those - who led the Republic of Belarus to success and prosperity back to the family.
      Those who have reunited our people will remain in history. How Putin and Crimea brought Crimeans home.

      And these temporary opportunists in Ukraine and Belarus are the dust that people will raise on the pitchfork.
      (although with Ukraine the question is - people are patient)
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 17 February 2021 18: 02
        +2
        That's right, we will wait until the stubborn collective farmer retires. If only he didn't do it. For him separate Belarusian "farm" is a lifelong business.
        1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
          Alexndr p (Alexander) 17 February 2021 18: 03
          +1
          Putin will put pressure on him. I think. Volodya can put the question bluntly. You also need a couple of levers. But I think RB itself is sailing to us. It's really inevitable
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 17 February 2021 18: 08
            0
            I doubt it. Nobody will press and force them into Russia. Only voluntarily. It may turn out that wild territories in the place of present-day Ukraine (at least to the Dnieper) will sooner be asked. The arrogance of life, smithy, health resorts will subside from the seamen, they will grow wiser. A low-calorie diet helps to activate the thought processes.
            1. beeper Offline beeper
              beeper 17 February 2021 21: 38
              +2
              The arrogance of life, smithy, health resorts will subside from the seamen, they will grow wiser. A low-calorie diet helps to activate the thought processes.

              Alas, just the "arrogance" themselves - a bunch of greedy kleptoligarchs - "Judeo-Banderites", their lured Banderonazi secret police from the marginal rabble, "Svidomo" servants and all sorts of stuck-hangers-on, not on a low-calorie "diet", but all get from their huckster-Americanoids "cookies with jam" precisely for the militant Russophobia and anti-Russianism! request
              And they do not care, "Svidomo (" deliberately ")" created by them, the problems of the "failed state Ukraine" itself, and the rest of the multinational population of the territory of the ex-Ukrainian SSR!

              As the current American-Judo-Galician "Fuhrer of the Maidan" Senya Krolik-Kulyavloba openly stated, during his Maidan premiership and the multibillion-dollar "construction of the Yaytsenyukh wire wall": "I am not going to live in this country! (I am not going to live in this country!) .. ..immediately after the flight of "uncontested European integrators" - Yanyk-Azarov and "overcoming the Maidan", together with other "Forers, Maidan" sent the Ukrainian gold reserve and priceless Scythian treasures "for storage" to the "US granaries", "amassed" his "the first billion of greenery" and go overseas for permanent residence ...
              So, those who seized power in Kiev, the "Ukrainian" Judeo-Banderonazis from impunity only become more arrogant and fattened up!
              Although, yes! It was so! Arrogance from them was knocked down by the March 2014, unexpected permission of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation for the use of the Russian Armed Forces abroad ... this news then instantly plunged the Banderonaziks and their "w / Bandera" leaders into shock and awe (which from fright, small. razota, in our South-East, even began to "skerry" and try to "change shoes in a jump", they say, "we are against you, Russians, we have nothing - the primary prohibition of the Russian language and our threats to you were a mistake" , they say, "we are pereproshuemo for tse, wind our Galychansky Lviv bude ohoche rozmovlyaty Russian!" ...)!
              And even later, when the possessed Natsiks-Maydauns and their sympathetic “pan-heads” realized that “Putin and Russia (“ We’re not abandoning our own! ”) Will not come” and will not punish for numerous, Maidan and post-Maidan murders (beatings and murders of anti-Maidan members "unseen" Russian compatriots ...), that former, February 2014, self-confident frenzied Russophobic arrogance they no longer had! winked
              "Myzdobuly" subconsciously began to "ock" - somewhere in the dupe, each "Svidomo" Banderlog vibrated a bit of that March fright and uncertainty - "What if Putin changes his mind ?!", which they, gathering in a herd, tried in every possible way to drown out that earnest synchronized bouncing, with loud shouting of Russophobic and anti-Putin-anti-Russian "chants", then "zhovto-blakytny" wraps by the state flag and total painting of everything that they could reach, then through fine motor skills of hands - superstitious "writing out their greatest sacral fears" in the form of speech -anti-Putin "abbreviations" on fences and cars, then by hooligan beating of shop windows with Russian names and the universal demolition of statues and busts of the founder of the Ukrainian SSR ...).
              The arrogance of the Galitsay Banderlogists who occupied the former Ukrainian SSR and their cunning leaders - "w / Banderists", alas, by itself, without "coercion to do good", will NOT subside and these cannibalistic ameroholui will not sit down on any starvation diet, instigated by Washington and the Pan-Europe, they are already, by all means, mercantilely siphoning off the world, literally devouring and "disassembling into sellable transplants" for the "golden billion", the multimillion "wrong" labor population they have seized of the current, completely "fallow" amerocolony "Ukraine" - "they are cleaning the territory" for the "correct" amero-fascist "New Order"!
  2. Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 17 February 2021 18: 38
    -5
    Moscow also spoke about discounts up to 50% on the railway tariff for Minsk.

    - and the Kremlin will pay the second half from (guess twice) pension or NWF? And, of course, this money will "increase the price of Russophobic policy for the Baltic states." Everything is just like in that joke - in spite of the conductor I won't go in a warm car, but I will walk along the sleepers in the rain and wind ...
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 19 February 2021 07: 07
      0
      Quote: Igor Pavlovich
      - And the Kremlin will pay the second half from (guess twice) pension or NWF? And, of course, this money will "increase the price of Russophobic policy for the Baltic states."

      This is the other side of the coin
  3. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
    Ulysses (Alexey) 17 February 2021 20: 56
    +4
    The Kaliningrad commercial port is giving a standing ovation with all the remaining small team.
    For all the hardships of the past 30 years.
    Lithuania actually strangled the port with high tariffs for railway transportation through its territory.
    For the sake of your own dear and your ports.

    The revenge was long (cold), brutal, but fair.
    You have to pay for everything ..

    PS Kaliningrad commercial port this year.

  4. zz810 Offline zz810
    zz810 (zz810) 27 February 2021 15: 26
    0
    Lukashenka until 2023, apparently, will keep the Lithuanian transit, which will account for the second half of export volumes. It is possible that in such a simple way the Belarusian partners will solve the problem with the fact that they would not like to show the Russian customs

    rather, it is a stone in the bosom for zealous Baltic politicians ;-)