On the verge of collision: Is war between the US and China becoming inevitable?


It is very likely that all hopes for a reduction in tensions between Washington and Beijing in connection with the change of the White House owner turned out to be in vain. Moreover, the "center of gravity" of the conflict between the two world powers is increasingly shifting in a very dangerous direction - from economic competition to geopolitical confrontation, which may well end in an armed conflict.


Recently, we have seen more than enough signs of just such a transformation. The war between these states, which have the most powerful armies and navies, and, moreover, possess nuclear arsenals until recently seemed completely impossible, and now some people speak of it as inevitable. Is this so, and how can such a development of events affect our country? Let's try to figure it out.

Exchange of "pleasantries" on the verge of collision


First of all, here it is worth mentioning the words of Mr. Biden himself, who not so long ago quite unequivocally stated that, with his submission, the Pentagon would "revise its strategy" in relation to the Celestial Empire, and this will be done "in the very near future." In what direction will the adjustment be made? Does Washington really intend to abandon indiscriminate criticism of China, constant attempts to interfere in its internal affairs, or at least from provocative demarches near the borders of this country? It is hardly worth counting on this. Rather, we can talk about a further toughening of the US position and "increasing the degree" of confrontation. This version is supported by the recognition of the head of the American military department Lloyd Austin, who claims that the "priority course of confronting Beijing," taken, among other things, by his department during the presidency of Donald Trump, will not undergo any changes in the future.

Moreover, according to available information, a task force of military analysts and representatives of the army command has now been created at the Pentagon, which will have to develop and submit appropriate strategic recommendations to the country's leadership over the next four months. What kind of strategy this is likely to be can be gleaned from recent American actions. In particular, large-scale exercises, demonstratively conducted by the aircraft carrier strike groups of the US Navy as part of the aircraft carriers USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and USS Nimitz (CVN-68), as well as accompanying missile cruisers and destroyers in the South China Sea on February 9 this year ... Rear Admiral Doug Verissimo, commander of the 12th AUG, said the maneuvers were "a demonstration of US support for a free and open Indo-Pacific".

Nevertheless, in Beijing, where 90% of the South China Sea is considered its own inland waters, these "efforts to ensure freedom of navigation" were perceived in a completely different way and reacted very harshly to them. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a special briefing made it clear: "It will be much better for peace and stability in this region if the United States stops flexing its muscles there, sending warships and aircraft out of its own shores." Well, to make it absolutely clear, China added the actions of the military to the words of the diplomatic department. While the American aircraft carrier group led by USS Theodore Roosevelt, which seems to be the embodiment of indestructible power and undeniable strength, entered the waters of the South China Sea, the PLA sent a very representative "group of welcomers" there, consisting of 8 H-6K bombers, 4 J fighters -16 and one Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft. Tellingly, the aviation group of the Chinese comrades calmly crossed the Taiwan air defense identification zone, once again demonstrating that they consider this unrecognized state and its "defense" to be pure fiction, which Beijing does not intend to reckon with.

We must pay tribute to the Chinese comrades - the pilots acted extremely carefully and professionally, their vehicles never approached the American ships within the range of the YJ-12 anti-ship missiles, which are the main H-6K weapon for such cases. Nevertheless, the aircraft carriers considered their maneuvers to be "imitation of an attack" (and most likely they were right). US Indo-Pacific Command spokesman Capt. Mike Kafka said the PLA Air Force flights were "aggressive and destabilizing." They scare, you know ...

"Asian NATO" will create a military alliance between Beijing and Moscow?


However, the same speaker ended his speech with a very unequivocal promise: "The United States will act where international law allows it, including sailing and flying, to demonstrate determination and its own operational presence throughout the Indo-Pacific." ... Well, from now on, American military pilots and sailors can with good reason perform to the tune of the famous Soviet song: “We were born to make Kafka come true ...” But the reality can end up being pretty ugly. In addition to the South China Sea, about "free shipping" (and speaking frankly, about its own military domination) in which Washington is so concerned, there is another "bone of contention" between it and Beijing - Taiwan. The vast majority of military analysts agree that it is because of this island, which to this day remains in the status of either an unrecognized or semi-recognized state and periodically tries to proclaim itself "true China", such a mess can be brewed in the region that its consequences will have to "disentangle" the whole world.

Considering how much Beijing's official rhetoric on this issue has changed recently, there is a strong feeling that the patience of the Chinese comrades from the mainland is running out. A few more "separatists" who stubbornly refuse to agree to reunification, even according to the formula that suited Hong Kong: "one country - two systems", will cease to persuade and will simply be forced to "return to the fold" by military force. At the same time, according to experts, if a dozen or two years ago such an escapade would have cost China a lot, and indeed it could have ended in a fiasco, now Taiwan has no chance of success.

The local army, accustomed to existence "in the shadow" of the US allies, not only lazy, but in a very real way decomposed. Such things often happen to those armed forces from the "states" - little ones, whose military doctrine fits into the phrase: "Hold out until the Americans arrive in time." So - in this case, military experts believe that they will not arrive in time ... They take from three days to two weeks maximum to take Taiwan under full control. This is well known on both sides of the ocean, and if in China such calculations serve only as a basis for strengthening combat and political training, the United States is of very serious concern. The country has experience in conducting hostilities in the Pacific Ocean, and not to say that it was too successful - either against Japan, or in Korea, or in Vietnam.

In any case, such a collision promises heavy human and material losses. It is on the basis of an understanding of these moments that the United States has been trying for a long time to put together a military-political alliance in the Indo-Pacific region, which many call the "Asian NATO" ahead of time, although so far it bears the deceptively peaceful name: "Quadripartite Security Dialogue" (QUAD). In addition to the US itself, it is planned to involve Japan, Australia and, most importantly, India, which has serious geopolitical differences with Beijing, into the alliance. It is known for certain that the new head of the White House has already discussed with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi a possible meeting of the leaders of these countries in Tokyo. As far as is known, the idea was received quite favorably. In the Celestial Empire, one must assume, such initiatives do not cause the slightest enthusiasm.

Perhaps this will force China, on the eve of the prolongation of the Treaty of Friendship and Good Neighborliness, which is in force today between it and our country, to think about seriously changing the document in terms of military-strategic partnership? Indeed, in essence, Beijing has no one else to conclude a defensive alliance with. In turn, this will not be superfluous for Russia either, both in light of the steadily deteriorating relations with the United States, and on the basis of Japan's incessant territorial claims, which, as was once again stated in the Kremlin the day before, no one is going to satisfy. Of course, entering into a "brotherhood in arms" with a state that is the most likely enemy of the United States is a rather risky business. However, perhaps not in our case, since Russia has exactly the same status for Washington. Perhaps a firm and unequivocal statement that in the event of an open armed confrontation, American soldiers will have to deal with the combined defense power of our two countries will seriously cool the notorious "hotheads" overseas.

In the meantime, the United States has demonstrated its unwavering commitment to the same tactics of blackmail and intimidation, which it would be high time for them to abandon. The new head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken, during the very first telephone conversation with a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, Yang Jiechi, not only congratulated his interlocutor on the upcoming New Year according to the calendar of the Celestial Empire, but also promised him a lot of the most unpleasant things in the same conversation. In particular, "hold China accountable for actions that threaten peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region." And also - to punish for "attempts to undermine the rules-based international order." This, of course, is about the "rules" that Americans come up with and establish for the whole world. From such "congratulations" to the declaration of war - the distance is less than one step. Whether the United States intends to take this step will become clear in the near future.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 15 February 2021 11: 14
    -6
    On the verge of collision: Is war between the US and China becoming inevitable?

    - Yes, what kind of war is there ... - China is cowardly ... like a hare ... - and only can that humiliate Russia ... - Well, what can you do; if Russia itself allows him this ...
    - As for the war with the United States; then China will never dare to do this (even though Russia supports it in everything) ... - Oh, and if suddenly Russia publicly expresses something against its support for China; then China does ... - will instantly deflate like a fake balloon ... - and will run to look for ways of reconciliation with the Americans ...
    - China is "brave" only against complaisant Russia ...
    1. Rum rum Offline Rum rum
      Rum rum (Rum rum) 15 February 2021 16: 55
      +3
      Irina. Well, admit already that you are a blonde.

      The author, of course, rushes things, but S-S-P is not able to exist without complete domination in the world and here irreconcilable contradictions with China arise. China needs to develop further, which means moving S-Sh-P off the pedestal, which is like death for S-Sh-P. There will be war as soon as China prepares itself to withdraw to other markets (it is, after all, a trading power), but S-S-P may not give this time.
      1. Lucifer67S Offline Lucifer67S
        Lucifer67S (Viktor Schmidt) 15 February 2021 19: 02
        0
        Irina ne prosto blondinka, ona super blondinka, takie gluposti ja davno nechital-Irina 300% super blondinka
    2. Forrest Gump Offline Forrest Gump
      Forrest Gump (Forrest Gump) 15 February 2021 20: 53
      +2
      China is an ancient country with thousands of years of immense military experience. Such disrespectful remarks about China demonstrate not even bad upbringing and education on your part, but rather a complete absence of both ...
      1. Rum rum Offline Rum rum
        Rum rum (Rum rum) 27 May 2021 16: 29
        0
        I have military experience. But the experience of victories?
        Moreover, China has not always been united over the millennia.
        In other respects, like Germany.
  2. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 15 February 2021 11: 31
    -2
    The inevitable wars between Israel and Iran, India and China, China and Taiwan have already died down, it is time to inevitably make war between China and the United States. Not a day without inevitable wars!
    1. Rum rum Offline Rum rum
      Rum rum (Rum rum) 27 May 2021 16: 26
      0
      Today we can recall this statement of yours.
      Especially about Israel (he is again jostling with Palestine (no need to say that Iran has nothing to do with it))
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 15 February 2021 12: 26
    +3
    one country - two systems

    If only Ukraine would offer this to Donbass.

    Does the United States intend to take this step,

    We know from practical history that the United States takes this step when its superiority is 100 times. And so, provocation is their strong point. The United States did not answer Iran, and you want to start fighting with China. The United States is happy with everything now, but no military conflict with China.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 15 February 2021 14: 22
    +4
    The US do not fight wars without forming an international coalition. This was the case during the Suez, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Syrian, and even more so in the case of a war with the DPRK, Iran, Russia, China.
    The US officials have declared the PRC and the Russian Federation to be geostrategic enemies, but it is inconvenient even for them to fight on two fronts.
    Therefore, they are trying to shift the main burden of the fight against the Russian Federation onto the EU and NATO, and they themselves are trying to concentrate on the confrontation with the PRC, for which, first of all, they are trying to form a military-political association Quad - an analogue of NATO, consisting of the USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, possibly India , other states and even Taiwan.
    These attempts by the United States run up against the Comprehensive Progressive Agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, RCEP (Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership), free trade agreements and bilateral agreements, and therefore there are not so many who want to harness the US military adventures, most prefer to trade with the PRC rather than fight.
    Therefore, the new administration put an end to Donald Trump's policy in the APR and, for a start, return to the agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership in order to somehow level the political and economic attractiveness of the PRC. This would also facilitate the formation of the anti-PRC coalition, and if successful, put it in complete dependence on the United States, which would greatly contribute to the restoration of US hegemony not only in the region, but throughout the world.
    At the same time, they take into account the prospect of the formation of a European army and a European military-industrial complex, which will inevitably reduce the purchase of US arms, hit the US economy, increase competition and reduce the EU's dependence on the US. Therefore, even if they win in one, they can lose greatly in another.
    The likelihood of unacceptable losses in the event the US starts a war with the PRC and the Russian Federation completely excludes it, limiting itself to saber rattling and provocations. The algorithm of struggle has long been worked out by the USA and consists in undermining the economy and destabilizing the internal situation. The spearhead of the struggle against the PRC is aimed at discrediting the Communist Party, and in the Russian Federation - at inciting contradictions between various groups of big business and personally at V.V. Putin, who, through incredible efforts, managed to put big business under state control and made it serve the interests of the state. Therefore, there is hope that after the departure of Vladimir Putin, with the support of the West, the contradictions between big capital will inevitably intensify and the state, to the delight of the "democrats", will collapse like the USSR and Yugoslavia.
    1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
      Alexzn (Alexander) 15 February 2021 15: 49
      -1
      I would like to know from you something about the Suez war.
    2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 15 February 2021 17: 21
      +1
      The algorithm of struggle has long been worked out by the United States and consists in undermining the economy and destabilizing the internal situation. The spearhead of the struggle against the PRC is aimed at discrediting the Communist Party,

      - It will not work for the Americans. !!! - "They lost their dexterity" and "lost their scent" and ... - They didn't even succeed with Venezuela (which is literally under their noses) ... - Why talk about China ... - Yes, and how much I can already repeat ... - as long as China has a devoted, helpful Russia .. - until then, China is simply invulnerable to the Americans ...

      and in the Russian Federation - to incite contradictions between various groups of big business and personally to V.V. Putin

      - No ... our stupid oligarchs have already understood; that Putin must be supported by all means ... - Our not very advanced and rather primitive oligarchs still understood; what ... what ... that "the boat must not be rocked" ... - Otherwise, it may start in Russia ... - everything will begin to develop according to the "Ukrainian scenario" ... - Here Ukraine involuntarily "helped" Russia to decide on the fact that "the shores must nevertheless be seen" ... - And our oligarchs will never "cross the line" now ... - no matter how much "bulk" the West gives them ... -they (oligarchs) are unambiguous .. . - "on the side of Putin" ...
    3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
      steelmaker 15 February 2021 19: 09
      -2
      You argue absolutely correctly, and the conclusion is as if you stole all these arguments from someone. Putin is the guarantor of all this thief. If not Putin, what will happen to Chubais, Nabiulina, Gref, Miller, etc.? What will happen to the EBN center without Putin? Russia will collapse if instead of Putin there is Navalny, Sobchak and the like. The West and big business are happy with Putin, not with Grudinin, Platoshkin and others with the same views!
    4. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
      Alexzn (Alexander) 16 February 2021 13: 12
      -1
      So what about the SUETS WAR? Awww.
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 15 February 2021 16: 37
    -2
    Ah, Necropic ...
    He prophesies again ... Give him all the blood ...
  6. FrankyStein Offline FrankyStein
    FrankyStein (FrankyStein) 15 February 2021 19: 50
    0
    Just the same situation is rising Carthage and Rome.
  7. Ivan Pitkin Offline Ivan Pitkin
    Ivan Pitkin (Ivan Pitkin) 15 February 2021 20: 55
    0
    China and the United States are friendship forever. Plasticine China will never fight the United States. Trump turned this friendship a little into a dryuchba, but it didn't go further.
  8. Aksel2 Offline Aksel2
    Aksel2 (Alexander Z.) 16 February 2021 14: 58
    +1
    Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 is a classic peripheral conflict over the redistribution of territories, which were enough before the Second World War. Along with the Arab spring, the war in the Donbass. We will not repeat the well-known main events.

    For example, the Saudi-Yemeni war, following which Jizan, Asir and Najran finally became the provinces of Saudi Arabia. Or Turkey's annexation of Hatay territory.

    Or the war between Bolivia and Paraguay. The latter is notable, by the way, for the fact that Russian emigrants-White Guards also took part in it.

    All these conflicts are harbingers of a great redistribution of the world, which began in 1939.
  9. Arthur Atanesyan (arthur atanesyan) 17 February 2021 22: 11
    +1
    A military-political bloc with China is impossible at this stage. The initial condition should be the merger of supranational elites. In the meantime, the Russian elite, their capital, education of children, real estate are more oriented towards the West. The second factor is tomorrow's confidence of the authorities in the irreversibility of the course of the future leaders of the country. The third factor is the economic stagnation of the state, which will lead to unequal partnerships in reality. The fourth factor is, in fact, the termination of the work of the UN Security Council. The two largest military blocs will conduct a dialogue directly, bypassing the Security Council. Personally, I believe that a military alliance between China and Russia will not be formed yet.
    It is enough to wait a little. The USA will disintegrate by the new presidential elections. The threat will disappear naturally.
  10. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
    Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 19 February 2021 01: 14
    0
    The Chinese said something like this about a possible conflict with the United States:

    unfortunately, China is currently unable to destroy all American cities.

    In fact, this means that the Chinese consider the lack of strategic nuclear forces capable of reaching US territory as the biggest drawback in their armed forces.

    Since this is the main drawback in their own opinion, the Chinese will urgently begin to eliminate it. The required minimum level is the destruction of the USA (all significant cities)
  11. BuRiChq3 Offline BuRiChq3
    BuRiChq3 (Yuri Vetrov) 19 February 2021 11: 33
    0
    The United States will trick China into Russia, Israel will fight the Islamic world, Europe will fight the United States! but in general, World War 3 began with Yugoslavia!
  12. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 27 May 2021 17: 33
    -1
    Quote: Rum Rum
    Today we can recall this statement of yours.
    Especially about Israel (he is again jostling with Palestine (no need to say that Iran has nothing to do with it))

    What's the connection? Israel is ALWAYS in a state of war with the Palestinians, first of all with Gaza, and one cannot even argue about the inevitability of this confrontation.