Expert: Good times for Putin are over


On whether the Russian authorities should be afraid of the opposition policy Alexei Navalny, a new article on the analytical website The Strategist at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy (ASPI) argues.


Images of corruption and regime decline, coupled with physically fragile but insanely brave Navalny, who confronts those who seek to eliminate him, have sparked the most massive protests in Russia since the wild inter-rule of the 1990s.

- pointed out the author of the publication, Anastasia Kapetas (Anastasia Kapetas).

President Vladimir Putin, it is alleged, could have dealt with corruption himself, economic problems, as well as tackle national projects to modernize infrastructure, reform the judiciary and curb the oligarchy.

However, it is difficult to imagine how such initiatives will be financed from the “public purse”. Fossil fuel demand has plummeted during the Covid-19 pandemic and is likely to decline further as a number of states switch to renewable energy sources. But even the very emergence of such a reform program can stop Putin's ratings decline.

Another option is to follow the Chinese model, that is, increased repression [...] or find a second Crimea in order to allow another nationalist outburst. There are some signs that the Kremlin is exploring the second option, but Russian political scientist Leonid Radzikhovsky argues that the public has neither the desire nor the additional funds for further foreign policy adventurism.

- noted in the text.

And new persecution, as noted, is unlikely to diminish the public discontent and apathy that smolder away from the gaze of the state in anticipation of the right moment.

Additional political reforms are probably out of the question, because Putin has rather carefully removed all democratic institutions that may have linked street protests to political change. All of this potentially raises the stakes for the authorities

- approved in the analysis.

This does not mean, the expert continues, that Putin has already faced any immediate problems. His power can last for at least a decade. However, in general, the vector has already been set.

Despite the concept of a resurgent Russia as a fearsome global player, the good times for Putin and his associates are likely over. They will have to work harder and spend more to maintain their power. […] For those at the very top, the prospect of luxurious and secure retreat in a palace by the sea may start to seem increasingly distant

- the author makes the final conclusions.
  • Used photos: kremlin.ru
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  1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) 13 February 2021 09: 44
    +4
    And an expert in what field? Catching rabbits in Australia?
    1. goncharov.62 Offline goncharov.62
      goncharov.62 (Andrei) 13 February 2021 11: 19
      0
      It's straight from the kungaroo bag ...
  2. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 13 February 2021 09: 57
    +2
    combined with physically fragile, but insanely brave Navalny,

    Well, just the granddaughter of Br. Grimm

  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 13 February 2021 11: 18
    -4
    Expert: Good times for Putin are over

    - Yes, these times are really over ... - over for both the guarantor and Russia ...
    - The "oil cream" has already been removed (and the gas sweet foams - too) ... - there is only one "return" left ... - And for the "return" - you can't help out a lot ... - it's cheap ...
    - And for a favorable period for Russia ... - "the period of expensive oil" (about 12-15 years), in Russia there is nothing global (for the better) ... - it has not changed ... - Russia has not managed to raise their economy; modernize production; introduce new technologies; get rid of import substitution; create domestic production of office equipment, modern transmitting devices, UAVs, etc. raise the standard of living ... - raise healthcare, "raise" salary and pensions; lower prices (products, goods, etc.) for ordinary taxpayers; to lower the cost of utilities and so on and so on ... - We will not go into more "sad details" ... - All the leading industries in the corral ... - metal rolling, machine building, machine tool building, aircraft construction ... - Lost (and it seems that forever) all the achievements of the Russian Cosmos ... and all the possibilities for Russia's further independent exploration of outer space and the construction of intergalactic modules and the ISS ... - Production has not been mastered and the latest technological lines for the production of drugs and pharmaceutical organizations that provide supply to pharmacies of medicines at prices affordable for the majority of the population of Russia ...; the newest medical centers, hospitals and institutions have not been created, built, or put into operation; where the necessary qualified medical operations and medical care would be available to Russian citizens ... - the overwhelming number of such medical operations are still performed only abroad, in other states - and are simply inaccessible to most Russian citizens ...
    - Russia did not manage to "raise its production" and "create a powerful economy" in a relatively favorable period (high oil price) ...
    - By the way ... - the Bolsheviks succeeded in Russia ... moreover ... - in much worse, most difficult conditions and in a shorter period of time ...
    - Well, but today Russia has already passed this relatively favorable period of time for itself ... - without reaching the level of a developed economic state ... - And what will Russia face in a "not so favorable period" (with cheap oil) .. - here you shouldn't go to a fortune teller ... - and so everything is clear ...
    1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
      Ulysses (Alexey) 13 February 2021 17: 04
      0
      - Yes, these times are really over ... - over for both the guarantor and Russia ...

      The dogs howled, the hedgehogs ate the cactus, the mice continued to pull the owl onto the globe ..
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 13 February 2021 17: 15
        -2
        Dogs howled, hedgehogs ate cactus

        - Hedgehogs drank tequila; and the ulysses turned into a snail and tried to hide in a globe; but a hungry owl found him and pecked at him ... - that was the end of his doggy odyssey ...
        - And what is it ... here ... you can do it ... - since you don't know how to fly ... - so at least crawl quietly and imperceptibly ...
  4. Dear sofa expert. 13 February 2021 11: 41
    +4
    When I read articles on such topics, one question always obsessively creeps into my head: But in general, in the world, are there such peoples who are satisfied with their governments, officials, bosses?)

    It seems to me that in any society, at any level, there is always a place for, constantly dissatisfied with something, "opposition".
    In the industry these are trade union activists, in the "intelligentsia" - various kinds, dissidents. In general, everyone is offended at officials (until they themselves get a job as an official), which, incidentally, is typical for politicians.
    Being in opposition, these "politicians" throw dirt on those in power, recklessly criticizing their state activities, but then, when they themselves, by some miracle, come to power, they completely forget everything that they presented to their opponents, and begin to do absolutely the same. One to one! And they do it because they are some kind of there - cunning scoundrels. Once they have received what they were striving for, they suddenly discover for themselves their new horizons, previously unknown to them. They suddenly find themselves in a new reality for them and "suddenly" begin to see and know what their predecessor could see and know before them.
    There comes a kind of "insight" in a new reality for them, which dictates them to do all the same.
    This means that the people who support these or those "oppositionists" must understand that they are. with his own hands, pushes up the one with whom he himself will later be dissatisfied. It may even happen that they will like the new "king" even less.

    The old wisdom says: stupid people choose a stupid king.

    Belief in a “good king” is not enough. Everyone should start with himself.

    You just need to go, and conscientiously do your job, work honestly, engage in self-education, it becomes self-sufficient.
    Then there will be no room for this unnecessary envious glancing at other people's "palasts" and "factories-ships".
    1. tagil Offline tagil
      tagil (Sergei) 13 February 2021 12: 18
      +1
      When I read articles on such topics, one question always obsessively creeps into my head: But in general, in the world, are there such peoples who are satisfied with their governments, officials, bosses?)

      What do you mean, it's only in dirty, backward, unwashed Russia, but everywhere everyone is happy with everything, and if there are dissatisfied, then first with a club on the face and then 20 years behind bars for re-education. Well, to be honest,

      How do dumb ushers know exactly how they live: good or bad? I'll tell you where: we'll tell them! Buy newspapers, hire propagandists and say that everything is bad. Speak, speak, speak! Turn minor troubles into disasters, and disasters into tragedies of a universal scale. Constantly repeat that somewhere they live better, much better, as good as it happens only in a fairy tale, and here is a rotten dump. A standard of living, a good salary is a daily routine that never seems to be an achievement to anyone. They get used to them, take them for granted, but if everyone around them repeats that people live badly because they are ruled by the rich, the hard workers will believe.
      Then we establish our authority and return the cattle to the stall. The cattle will become many times worse than before, but it will not dare to squeak, since we will be cruel to him. So cruel that it will continually shake with terror.

      Sound familiar?
      1. Dear sofa expert. 13 February 2021 12: 38
        +1
        Sound familiar?

        I have not read this book, but I will definitely read it, thanks.
        Yes, that's exactly what happens.
  5. Shelest2000 Offline Shelest2000
    Shelest2000 13 February 2021 12: 03
    +1
    President Vladimir Putin, it is argued, could have dealt with corruption, economic problems himself, as well as tackled national projects to modernize infrastructure, reform the judiciary and curb the oligarchy.

    This is from the series "Bees against honey" - therefore it is absolutely unrealistic. Yes, and he will not be able to rule in another way, he does not know how, and there is no desire. And you won't leave your friends - they will not remain in debt, they will answer ...
  6. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) 13 February 2021 12: 38
    +3
    Quote: gorenina91
    Expert: Good times for Putin are over

    - Yes, these times are really over ... - over for both the guarantor and Russia ...
    - The "oil cream" has already been removed (and the gas sweet foams - too) ... - there is only one "return" left ... - And for the "return" - you can't help out a lot ... - it's cheap ...
    - And for a favorable period for Russia ... - "the period of expensive oil" (about 12-15 years), in Russia there is nothing global (for the better) ... - it has not changed ... - Russia has not managed to raise their economy; modernize production; introduce new technologies; get rid of import substitution; create domestic production of office equipment, modern transmitting devices, UAVs, etc. raise the standard of living ... - raise healthcare, "raise" salary and pensions; lower prices (products, goods, etc.) for ordinary taxpayers; to lower the cost of utilities and so on and so on ... - We will not go into more "sad details" ... - All the leading industries in the corral ... - metal rolling, machine building, machine tool building, aircraft construction ... - Lost (and it seems that forever) all the achievements of the Russian Cosmos ... and all the possibilities for Russia's further independent exploration of outer space and the construction of intergalactic modules and the ISS ... - Production has not been mastered and the latest technological lines for the production of drugs and pharmaceutical organizations that provide supply to pharmacies of medicines at prices affordable for the majority of the population of Russia ...; the newest medical centers, hospitals and institutions have not been created, built, or put into operation; where the necessary qualified medical operations and medical care would be available to Russian citizens ... - the overwhelming number of such medical operations are still performed only abroad, in other states - and are simply inaccessible to most Russian citizens ...
    - Russia did not manage to "raise its production" and "create a powerful economy" in a relatively favorable period (high oil price) ...
    - By the way ... - the Bolsheviks succeeded in Russia ... moreover ... - in much worse, most difficult conditions and in a shorter period of time ...
    - Well, but today Russia has already passed this relatively favorable period of time for itself ... - without reaching the level of a developed economic state ... - And what will Russia face in a "not so favorable period" (with cheap oil) .. - here you shouldn't go to a fortune teller ... - and so everything is clear ...

    You seem to be from Ukraine, you portrayed everything in the darkest colors. Some of the theses were repeated several times, apparently not enough once. But not everything is as you wrote. Russia is changing for the better every year, I can see it myself, because, unlike you, I live in Russia. New enterprises are opening, Russia has not collapsed during the recent crises, it will develop. In the field of agriculture, it beats Soviet records. There are many areas where we would like to improve, for example, in the field of fishing, but there will be changes for the better.
    1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 13 February 2021 18: 18
      -1
      You seem to be from Ukraine, you portrayed everything in the darkest colors. Some theses were repeated several times, apparently not enough once. But not everything is as you wrote. Russia is changing for the better every year, I can see it myself, because unlike you I live in Russia

      - I have written many times ... - what ... what ... that I personally live in Western Siberia (Omsk) ... - and this is the most that neither is ... - "support" and " reliability "of all Russia at all times ... - Omsk once flourished and was a very powerful industrial, industrial and agrarian center ... - And it produced tanks ... - T-80 and" Black Eagle "(you can find the video) and rockets and petrochemical products (one Omsk refinery - what did it cost); and metal-working plants ... - whatever they produced ... - And the Omsk Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR ... - what varieties of wheat, other grains and varieties of vegetables have brought ... - I will not list everything here .. . - the page is not enough ...

      New enterprises are opening, Russia did not collapse during the recent crises, it will develop. In the field of agriculture, it breaks Soviet records.

      - Why open them - these "new enterprises" ??? - Old enterprises shouldn't have been closed, otherwise: - "two opened ... - twenty closed; one in the mind" ... - Sad ... -Hahah ...
      - Okay ... - what will I be ... here for you ...
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2021 13: 11
      -1
      You shouldn't have entered into a discussion with her - there is only a stream of thoughts ... without reason. This has been pointed out to her more than once.
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
    _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 13 February 2021 15: 42
    +3
    Expert: Good times for Putin are over

    The good times for the world are over, a crisis is coming. you need someone to "eat" and, as usual, they want it to be us, to pay off their bills; their lives, destinies, values ​​... however, the tales of their prosperity on earth have faded somewhat, lost their colors and tones ... they are inventing, inventing something ... in the event of an extreme development of the situation, at least in our "bridge" there will be a worthy supreme commander
  9. oderih Offline oderih
    oderih (Alex) 13 February 2021 21: 24
    0
    Russia is the only self-sufficient country in the world. European goons will untie your navel. So it was and will be
  10. Alsur Offline Alsur
    Alsur (Alexey) 13 February 2021 22: 17
    -2
    Quote: ALSur
    Quote: gorenina91
    Expert: Good times for Putin are over

    - Yes, these times are really over ... - over for both the guarantor and Russia ...
    - The "oil cream" has already been removed (and the gas sweet foams - too) ... - there is only one "return" left ... - And for the "return" - you can't help out a lot ... - it's cheap ...
    - And for a favorable period for Russia ... - "the period of expensive oil" (about 12-15 years), in Russia there is nothing global (for the better) ... - it has not changed ... - Russia has not managed to raise their economy; modernize production; introduce new technologies; get rid of import substitution; create domestic production of office equipment, modern transmitting devices, UAVs, etc. raise the standard of living ... - raise healthcare, "raise" salary and pensions; lower prices (products, goods, etc.) for ordinary taxpayers; to lower the cost of utilities and so on and so on ... - We will not go into more "sad details" ... - All the leading industries in the corral ... - metal rolling, machine building, machine tool building, aircraft construction ... - Lost (and it seems that forever) all the achievements of the Russian Cosmos ... and all the possibilities for Russia's further independent exploration of outer space and the construction of intergalactic modules and the ISS ... - Production has not been mastered and the latest technological lines for the production of drugs and pharmaceutical organizations that provide supply to pharmacies of medicines at prices affordable for the majority of the population of Russia ...; the newest medical centers, hospitals and institutions have not been created, built, or put into operation; where the necessary qualified medical operations and medical care would be available to Russian citizens ... - the overwhelming number of such medical operations are still performed only abroad, in other states - and are simply inaccessible to most Russian citizens ...
    - Russia did not manage to "raise its production" and "create a powerful economy" in a relatively favorable period (high oil price) ...
    - By the way ... - the Bolsheviks succeeded in Russia ... moreover ... - in much worse, most difficult conditions and in a shorter period of time ...
    - Well, but today Russia has already passed this relatively favorable period of time for itself ... - without reaching the level of a developed economic state ... - And what will Russia face in a "not so favorable period" (with cheap oil) .. - here you shouldn't go to a fortune teller ... - and so everything is clear ...

    You seem to be from Ukraine, you portrayed everything in the darkest colors. Some of the theses were repeated several times, apparently not enough once. But not everything is as you wrote. Russia is changing for the better every year, I can see it myself, because, unlike you, I live in Russia. New enterprises are opening, Russia has not collapsed during the recent crises, it will develop. In the field of agriculture, it beats Soviet records. There are many areas where we would like to improve, for example, in the field of fishing, but there will be changes for the better.

    Quote: gorenina91
    You seem to be from Ukraine, you portrayed everything in the darkest colors. Some theses were repeated several times, apparently not enough once. But not everything is as you wrote. Russia is changing for the better every year, I can see it myself, because unlike you I live in Russia

    - I have written many times ... - what ... what ... that I personally live in Western Siberia (Omsk) ... - and this is the most that neither is ... - "support" and " reliability "of all Russia at all times ... - Omsk once flourished and was a very powerful industrial, industrial and agrarian center ... - And it produced tanks ... - T-80 and" Black Eagle "(you can find the video) and rockets and petrochemical products (one Omsk refinery - what did it cost); and metal-working plants ... - whatever they produced ... - And the Omsk Scientific Center of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR ... - what varieties of wheat, other grains and varieties of vegetables have brought ... - I will not list everything here .. . - the page is not enough ...

    New enterprises are opening, Russia did not collapse during the recent crises, it will develop. In the field of agriculture, it breaks Soviet records.

    - Why open them - these "new enterprises" ??? - Old enterprises shouldn't have been closed, otherwise: - "two opened ... - twenty closed; one in the mind" ... - Sad ... -Hahah ...
    - Okay ... - what will I be ... here for you ...

    Write everything correctly, the only thing that confused was the closure of the Omsk refinery, which you wrote about, in a series of other closed enterprises. I don’t know why you wrote that, a mistake or not knowing the subject, but refineries in Russia are flourishing, even new ones are opening. This is due to the increased number of cars in comparison with the times of the USSR. Here, you specifically got bogged down, probably all the same Ukraine, not Omsk.
    1. kot711 Offline kot711
      kot711 (vov) 14 February 2021 11: 01
      0
      Look in the toilet or under the bed - are there no aliens from Ukraine? Your doubts suggest that you are paranoid.
      1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 15 February 2021 03: 50
        0
        Look in the toilet or under the bed - are there no aliens from Ukraine? Your doubts suggest that you are paranoid.

        - Yes, exactly ... - this ALSur (Alexey) ... - really paranoid obsessed with Ukraine ...
        - Who is talking about what ... - and this ... - well, and so on ... - He has a universal answer for all occasions ... - Well, it only remains to sympathize with him ...
        - Apparently this little man is so much easier ... - Well, do not forbid the little secret joys ... - let him continue to add his "puzzles" ...
  11. Alexander Zima Offline Alexander Zima
    Alexander Zima (Alexander Zima) 14 February 2021 11: 13
    +1
    Opposition politician .. the author is not funny .. he is a criminal urka .. who promoted him in politics .. apart from the West ... and maybe the author got him confused .. this is the end of the concessions of the Russian Federation for the EU ... and when they really do not want to from the gas-free and from the plague of the 21st century there will be ... empty streets ... in short, it is not necessary to give out what is not in the Russian Federation ... what kind of elites ... where did you see them ... this is not about GOZMAN with Makarevich ... in the case of Kh..all these elites will go to the front .. and at the same time in the forefront .. to prove their love for the HOMELAND .. and maybe someone thinks they will sit in pubs .. not only to the front.
    1. kot711 Offline kot711
      kot711 (vov) 14 February 2021 18: 03
      0
      Yes, yes, both Sechin and Miller, and Usmanov, will heroically meet NATO tanks on the very border. And Solovyov will bravely rush to Italy to sniff out the secrets of enemies.