How much money will oil-producing countries lose in 20 years


Countries that receive most of their income from the sale of hydrocarbons, in two decades, could lose about $ 9 trillion due to the transition of the world to "green" energy and the resulting decrease in demand for oil and gas. This conclusion was made by experts of the British analytical center Carbon Tracker in relation to 40 oil-producing countries.


Such large financial losses, according to analysts, are quite likely due to a strong decrease in demand for energy resources due to the "global decarbonization" of the energy sector, as well as due to the struggle of the world community with an increase in the average temperature on the planet, which will allow in 20 years to limit this indicator to 1,65 degrees Celsius. Due to the decline in demand for oil, its prices by this time will be lower than economists now predict.

A decrease in the level of oil sales and a strong reduction in the cost of hydrocarbons, first of all, will negatively affect the economy countries such as Iraq and Equatorial Guinea, which receive about 80 percent of their income from the sale of oil. Seven more countries, including Saudi Arabia, are 60 percent dependent on energy exports. By 2040, Russia will lose about 47 percent of its oil revenues.

The way out of the situation may be structural changes in the economy and diversification of government revenues, the Carbon Tracker report says. This requires increased funding for education and green energy-related industries, as well as improving the business climate and quality of governance.
  • Photos used: Snpz / wikipedia.org
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 12 February 2021 16: 18
    +2
    Countries that receive most of their income from the sale of hydrocarbons, in two decades, could lose about $ 9 trillion due to the transition of the world to "green" energy and the resulting decrease in demand for oil and gas.

    It would be more appropriate to enclose the word "peace" in quotation marks. Not the whole world is striving to switch to the "green". This is an energy-deficient Europe, which lost the "oil and gas" war, the country of the shale revolution, and small-shavens, who are close to them in spirit, also deprived of their own energy resources with nostalgic for the Kuril Islands, and others. This is not the whole world.
    Rather, a group of countries, let's call them conditionally "golden billion", understands that they are starting to lose and change the rules of the game.
    Developing countries simply will not pull green energy for financial reasons and will be excluded from their goods by imposing duties. Otherwise, the same European industry is not competitive. In Germany, for example, the third year of industrial production is falling, all European agriculture is subsidized.
    Green energy is a new banner of the XXI century, under which competitors will be crushed. The old (human rights) has been frayed in the past battles.
    1. Alexndr p Offline Alexndr p
      Alexndr p (Alexander) 12 February 2021 17: 49
      0
      In Germany, for example, the third year industrial production falls

      This is wonderful wink
      Russian industry has been growing for 5 years in a row

      Green energy is a new banner of the XXI century, under which competitors will be crushed.

      well, nothing, for them we'll have hydrogen. And our electricity from nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants melts luminous.

      So Russia is ready in principle
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 12 February 2021 20: 57
        0
        well, nothing, for them we'll have hydrogen. And our electricity from nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants melts luminous.

        Not everything is so cloudless, whose competitors are going to crush it, first of all, we and China.
        The hegemony of the United States is based on the petrodollar; this is not possible without the control of the oil market. In our time, the United States is losing a "controlling stake", trade is still in dollars, but they control production less and less. Russia, Iran, Venezuela and a few other countries are in their throats, in Africa, the Chinese partially control production. This will inevitably lead to the crowding out of the dollar. For them, this is a collapse. They will butt to the last. The situation is similar for gas, Iran and Russia are leaders in terms of reserves. In general, Russia is an energy superpower and a strike is being prepared primarily against us.
        As for the energy itself as a whole. In Russia, it is well developed, oil, gas, coal, hydropower, nuclear power plants and all this is cheap electricity, which means a competitive advantage. This is what they are trying to deprive us of. For example, the same aluminum, we are trying to sell it to Europe or the USA, and they stop us stop you use "dirty" energy, so the duty and now a ton of Russian aluminum costs not 200 euros (of course, of course), but 400. Now it costs as much as European or American aluminum or even more. We become non-competitors and lose the market. so they negate our advantage. For China, this is generally tantamount to death, they will not survive on wind turbines. What to do in this situation is not very clear. Shutting down your power plants and building wind turbines is just silly. It remains to develop trade with countries that are not members of the "green rich" club. In general, the WTO and the common market are withering away, the world is heading towards fragmentation into economic zones. We must grow it for ourselves. CIS, Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, India, we must fight for this "clearing". Apart from the CIS, it is quite problematic to defend one's interests without a powerful ocean-going military fleet.

        So Russia is basically ready

        I guess not quite, there is still a lot to be done. You need to grow your cluster. And the integration is not very good yet. There is a feeling that the same Lukashenka with his farmstead worldview does not understand this. This is how the situation is briefly seen what
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 12 February 2021 22: 34
    -1
    The fate of neo-colonial countries is often sad ... Either rubber becomes unnecessary, now bird fertilizers, now sugarcane ...

    And suddenly China masters cold fusion - in general, a scribe will come ...
  3. Termit1309 Offline Termit1309
    Termit1309 (Alexander) 13 February 2021 01: 06
    0
    Quote: 123
    and they give us - stop, you are using "dirty" energy, so the duty and now a ton of Russian aluminum costs not 200 euros (conditionally, of course), but 400. Now it costs as much as European or American aluminum or even more.

    Accordingly (conventionally) the price of windmills and other green energy is growing, the price of European aluminum is growing, and so on in a circle. Who's the first to be blown away?
  4. oracul Offline oracul
    oracul (leonid) 13 February 2021 07: 34
    0
    At one time, Academician Aleksandrov, assessing the prospects for controlled thermonuclear reactions, said that success will come when the conditions are ripe for this and the need arises. The lurch of energy on the principle of fashion in one direction or another is ridiculous. Oil and gas are not only energy, but also raw materials for arranging life.