Foreign policy trends in the United States raise questions not only among America's enemies, but also among their allies, writes Eurasia Review. This concern is caused by a number of decisions made by the previous administration of the White House, as well as planned by the administration of the new one.
Previously, the global security system has become much more unstable due to the United States withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 and from the Open Skies Treaty in 2020.
At the same time, the US and Russia, Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin discussed a five-year extension of the START III arms control treaty. Nevertheless, during their first telephone conversation on January 3, Biden warned Vladimir Putin that the United States would respond to Russia's "intrigues".
Along the way, for the Baltics, the likelihood of an accidental conflict with the East has increased, since a critical concentration of foreign military contingents is created in the republics.
According to experts, these republics have turned into an unstable region. A new full-scale war may start here, including with the use of weapons of mass destruction.
Loren B. Thompson, director of the Lexington Institute and head of Source Associates, wrote about this in his article “Why the Baltic States will start a nuclear war”.
The likelihood of a nuclear war between America and Russia is only growing. If we talk about a specific location, a military confrontation is expected [for control] over the three small Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. […] The commitment to European security lies in Washington's willingness to use its nuclear arsenal to protect allies. The official name of this strategy is “extended containment” and since 2004 it has been extended to the Baltic states [...]
- suggests an expert.
That is, any conflict between Russia and NATO is likely to lead to a nuclear escalation, states Eurasia Review. While nuclear weapons have the potential to be used in any future combat scenarios, there are several reasons to believe that the Balts are in the greatest danger.
Leading NATO allies are already striving to reassure eastern members of the alliance that any possible aggression will be reliably contained. The North Atlantic Treaty guarantees any of its participants the necessary assistance.
However, each NATO member country has the right to independently determine the nature of such assistance. Moreover, analysts have raised the question of the readiness of the allies to respond to an attack in the Baltic region. They point to polls that show relatively low public support in Europe for the idea of protecting the Baltic allies.
Obviously, none of the European countries is ready to become the target of a nuclear strike for their sake.
The Baltic states exploit the contradictions between the United States and Russia. However, this increases tensions in Europe and increases the likelihood of a military conflict with the use of nuclear weapons.
And Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia themselves may eventually become the main target for a retaliatory or even preemptive strike.