What "pitfalls" are concealed by the transport project in the Caucasus


Moscow, Baku and Yerevan are actively discussing among themselves the opening of a new transport corridor, which should connect Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran by rail. Without wasting time, the Azerbaijani side has already begun construction of its section and intends to obtain permission from the partners in the negotiation process for a highway to Turkey through Armenian territory. What are the tempting prospects and "pitfalls" of this infrastructure project?


The question is not entirely unambiguous, and there are two opposite views on it. Let's consider them in more detail and try to "reconcile". According to an optimistic point of view, this infrastructure project will only bring great benefits to all the states of the South Caucasus and Russia. The railway line will run from Dagestan to Baku, then to the Armenian Meghri, from there to the Azerbaijani Julfa, where there is already a branch to Iran, then to the Azerbaijani territorial exclave of Nakhichevan, bordering Turkey, and to the capital of Armenia, Yerevan. Thus, our country actually breaks through the transport blockade in the Transcaucasia by unfriendly Georgia and receives a land transport corridor to the allied Armenia and Turkey, which is a fairly large Russian trading partner, as well as to Iran. Moscow is also simplifying the supply of its military base in Gyumri and, accordingly, the peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.

On the contrary, Tbilisi will lose a lot from the implementation of this project. Turkey and Azerbaijan, which defiantly declared themselves two states and one people, are getting a common transport connection between themselves, Ankara is gaining access to the Caspian Sea and further to Central Asia through an ally. Optimists consider the "Pan-Turkist" threat to Russia to be somewhat exaggerated, they say the presence of Turks in the region will be purely symbolic, and Azerbaijan will not allow the opening of foreign military bases.

But there is also a more pessimistic view of this issue:

At firstThe pan-Turkic ambitions of President Erdogan should not be taken so lightly. The desire of Russia, where 11 million citizens of the Turkic group live, to join the Turkic Council, voiced by Minister Lavrov, did not arouse much enthusiasm among the "initiator of the project" Ankara, explains Turkish political scientist Engin Ozer:

The truth is that Turkey has changed today, it has become a strong and independent state, it is a flagship, which is equal to the Turkic-speaking states, it occupies a dominant position in the Asian space. Russia, however, believes that if it does not participate in this organization, it may find itself in the position of an outside observer.

Turkey's access to the Caspian Sea opens the way for it to create a "logistic superpower" that will unite economic space all over Central Asia. Under the auspices of Ankara, of course, which will take away from Moscow a significant part of cargo flows from China to Europe and become "Beijing's window to the Mediterranean Sea." You can put a good face on a bad game, but the truth is that the interests of our countries objectively contradict each other. A certain military alliance of the Turkic countries will be a natural consequence of the need to defend this infrastructure project from the "northern neighbor".

Secondly, the transport corridor through Azerbaijan to Armenia can be blocked at any time by Baku. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has not been resolved and can be unfrozen at any time after the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from there. As a reminder, the deadline for their stay is 5 years. The permanent "Armenian threat" is the basis for finding and strengthening the Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan. It is obvious that this time will be used by Presidents Aliyev and Erdogan for the construction of railways and highways. Let's say frankly: "everything is fine only while everything is fine."

So how should our country behave with regard to the opening transport corridors? With all the pitfalls available, they provide some opportunities that would be foolish to miss. The only question is in what format Russia should participate in them. So far, we are graciously assigned the honorable role of "guards" who can allegedly influence something there. What a joy.

Probably, it would be right to create an international consortium for the construction and management of transport infrastructure in the Transcaucasus, in which our country should also become a full partner. Then another conversation will go, if someone tries to block something there unilaterally. In the meantime, Russia is there on bird's rights.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 29 January 2021 12: 29
    +3
    the transport corridor through Azerbaijan to Armenia can be blocked at any time from the side of Baku

    1) Why can the corridor through Azerbaijan be blocked, but not the corridor through Armenia? What are the differences?

    The permanent "Armenian threat" is the basis for finding and strengthening the Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan.

    2) Or let's say the permanent "Azerbaijani threat" is the basis for finding and strengthening the Russian military presence in Armenia.

    It is obvious that this time will be used by Presidents Aliyev and Erdogan for the construction of railways and highways.

    3) And they will still be on Armenian territory. We look at point 1.

    So far, we are graciously assigned the honorable role of "guards" who can supposedly influence something there. What a joy.

    Or let's say we generously agreed to control the process.

    Probably, it would be right to create an international consortium for the construction and management of transport infrastructure in the Transcaucasus, in which our country should also become a full partner. Then another conversation will go, if someone tries to block something there unilaterally. In the meantime, Russia is there on bird's rights.

    What other consortium? In case of blocking the route, do you suggest shaking the paper with the agreement and pumping the rights? laughing The best controller is the conscience of ... Russian tankers. winked
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 January 2021 14: 17
      -2
      Why can the corridor through Azerbaijan be blocked, but the corridor through Armenia not? What are the differences?

      So who needs this corridor? Russia and Armenia need it.

      What other consortium? In case of blocking the route, do you suggest shaking the paper with the agreement and pumping the rights? laughing The best controller is the conscience of ... Russian tankers.

      You can first and shake, and when it does not help, call the tankers. Otherwise, what claims can Russia have against Baku? Internal affairs of Azerbaijan and personal squabbles with Armenia.

      And if we are talking about a consortium, then the partner will be entitled to a part of the income from its activities, isn't it?
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 29 January 2021 14: 52
        +1
        So who needs this corridor? Russia and Armenia need it.

        What corridor are you talking about? Azerbaijan-Turkey?

        You can first and shake, and when it does not help, call the tankers. Otherwise, what claims can Russia have against Baku? Internal affairs of Azerbaijan and personal squabbles with Armenia.

        Why shake and call? They are already there. So it is safer and you don't need to shake anything. No claims whatsoever. Russia is denied access to Armenia, Azerbaijan automatically loses access to Nakhichevan and further to Turkey.

        And if we are talking about a consortium, then the partner will be entitled to a part of the income from its activities, isn't it?

        I think profit is not primary here, they will somehow agree with it. In any case, the agreements will not be just words. The consortium implies Russia's participation in the construction and operation of the route. Whether this will be involved I do not know.
        1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 January 2021 17: 01
          -1
          Quote: 123
          Russia is denied access to Armenia, Azerbaijan automatically loses access to Nakhichevan and further to Turkey.

          How does Azerbaijan lose access?
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 29 January 2021 17: 49
            +4
            How does Azerbaijan lose access?

            Elementary. They block the route and that's it. Or is it only Azerbaijan that can block our access to Armenia, and Armenia will not guess to do this?
            1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
              Marzhecki (Sergei) 29 January 2021 18: 01
              0
              Azerbaijanis have just smashed Armenia to smithereens in the NKR, which made it possible to open a transport corridor in the south, not at all by the free will of Yerevan. The overlap of the corridors by the parties is possible in the event of a resumption of the war in Karabakh.
              Do you not admit that they can repeat, at the same time solving the issue of the security of the corridor between Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan by force? This is a fundamental issue now, a limited contingent will be introduced to ensure the safety of the railway and highway. Do you really think we will start fighting with them because of this?
              1. 123 Offline 123
                123 (123) 29 January 2021 19: 26
                +3
                Do you not admit that they can repeat, at the same time solving the issue of the security of the corridor between Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan by force?

                Admit yes The question is, can they? It happens that it is difficult to pull the same trick twice, the dizziness from success hurts. It took a long time to prepare for the company, it will take no less time to repeat it, it will not remain unnoticed. And without preparation .... In addition, there are Russian troops, and Azerbaijan in this case will not be an innocent sheep, because he will provoke the situation by being the first to violate the agreement. And he will not liberate his territory, but seize someone else's. And this falls under the CSTO agreement.

                This is a fundamental issue now, a limited contingent will be introduced to ensure the safety of the railway and highway. Do you really think we will start fighting with them because of this?

                What are you, we will not start, but neither will Azerbaijan.
      2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 29 January 2021 16: 57
        0
        In general, from Roman law: divide and rule, such described corridors are not needed for the Russian Federation. The RF-Azerbaijan-Iran corridor with access to the port of the Indian Ocean is of the utmost importance; this should prevail as a direct benefit to Russia and Iran. Everything else in the proposed routes, only a headache and problems for Russia (the Turanian project and other Muslim manners in the Turkoman environment of the Russian Federation and Middle Asia) ...
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 29 January 2021 21: 07
    +1
    First freight train launched from Turkey to Russia via BTK
    https://ru.oxu.az/economy/462500
    1. oderih Offline oderih
      oderih (Alex) 30 January 2021 10: 24
      +1
      So this is a "Georgian" corridor. And we are talking about a corridor through Meghri. That is, Armenia
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 30 January 2021 10: 39
        +2
        In this case, it is, of course, the "Georgian corridor". The route through Meghri has not been built yet. The question is different. "What are the pitfalls of new transport projects in the Transcaucasus"?
        Probably a reduction in transportation times and a decrease in prices due to the exclusion of costs for transit countries.
        1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 31 January 2021 14: 51
          +1
          Hey! The stones are somehow not visible. The main beneficiary of this railway, which still needs to be restored, is Armenia, which has the main trading partner of the Russian Federation and exports by trucks through Georgia and the Lower Lars tunnel. The second is Azerbaijan, which will receive a railway message from the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. Currently, only trucks cross Iranian territory.
          Turkey. Freight traffic with Azerbaijan and further by ferries to Aktau and Turkmen Bashi is carried out on the shoulder of Kars-Tbilisi-Baku, the railway is doing quite well.
          Russia. There is no interest at all. Gas flows through a pipe, oil products,
          TVELs, etc. transshipped to Batumi, delivery basis FOB.
          Iran. It will only lose on the termination of transit by road between Nakhichevan and Azerbaijan.