How much will Ukraine pay for the energy gap with Russia

Ukraine continues to follow the slippery slope of the Baltic states and by 2023 intends to disconnect from the unified energy system with Russia and Belarus, becoming part of the common supply system with the EU. What could be the price of such "Europeanization" for Independent, which for some reason was not discussed on the Maidan in 2014?

The documentary part of the "European integration" of the Ukrainian energy system was signed back in 2019. Now the seriousness of Kiev's intentions has been confirmed by the head of the Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba:

Ukraine's goal is to join the EU electricity supply system in 2023. This means that we must cut off from the Belarusian and Russian systems and fully integrate into the EU.

All this is presented to the population as further "de-Russification" and the opportunity to earn more on the supply of electricity from Ukrainian nuclear power plants to Europe. Indeed, Kiev is forced to buy Russian and Belarusian electricity, which costs it cheaper than European electricity, while it itself exports kilowatts to neighboring Poland, Hungary and Romania. Technically, it is possible to break and leave the Square from the general energy system of the former USSR, but it will cost it dearly.

At first, tariffs will continue to grow steadily in the country, the increase of which is dictated by the norms of the European Union. Officials from Brussels are demanding that Kiev abolish feed-in tariffs for electricity, which are formed through cross-subsidization. Now part of the financial burden from the population is shifted to industry, but this practice will soon be canceled. The EU believes that artificial containment of tariff growth limits the "development of market competition." Ordinary Ukrainians have already reacted to the coming negative changes with massive protests, which are called the "tariff Maidan". However, this will hardly help them. I would like to remind you that President Volodymyr Zelensky went to the polls with a promise to reduce tariffs, but did not fulfill it. And he is not able to do this within the framework of the course towards “Europeanization”: Ukraine is all in debt and totally depends on regular tranches from the IMF.

Secondly, Independent firmly fell into the "carbon trap". Coal, not too environmentally friendly, generation in it is still quite strong, so almost all Ukrainian goods that are exported to the EU will be subject to the new "carbon tax". “Not only all” industrial enterprises will be able to adapt to higher tariffs and additional tax burden, which will lead to further de-industrialization of the country and an increase in unemployment.

In theory, alternative energy would help to cope with this task, the share of which has grown 3,5 times in recent years due to the involvement of foreign partners. Its total capacity today is 7,2 thousand MW, but there is one important nuance. The electricity generated from “green sources” is bought by the state itself at increased tariffs, which puts an additional burden on the emaciated budget. About why the widespread introduction of renewable energy sources is not equally beneficial to everyone, we in detail told earlier.

Thirdly, Ukrainian NPPs, which account for a significant share in the total generation, are gradually depleting their resource. Kiev broke off cooperation with Rosatom, and it simply does not have the financial resources to pay for the services of other foreign partners that could help with the construction of new power units.

Ultimately, a bad situation develops, in which, against the background of disconnection from the unified energy system with Russia and Belarus and integration with the European one, there is an accelerated deindustrialization of Nezalezhnaya, an increase in the export of released volumes of electricity to neighboring EU countries, an increase in tariffs for the population and the final economic The "enslavement" of the once advanced Soviet republic by Brussels. For some reason, Ukrainians were not told about such a thing in 2014, when distributing cookies.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 27 January 2021 15: 06
    In the 1990s, we heard that the West planned to leave 28 million people for living in Ukraine instead of 52 million. That is, to reduce the population by almost half from the Soviet past. It turns out that the Ukrainian nationalists are successfully coping with this task.
    1. boriz Online boriz
      boriz (boriz) 27 January 2021 15: 36
      If we count on the production of flour, then there are 23 million people physically living in Ukraine. They are afraid to do the census.
  2. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 27 January 2021 16: 14
    I have already written that both Vitrenko and, moreover, Kuleba, due to their incompetence, do not understand the main problem of leaving the system united with Russia.
    The point is not in the lack of electricity and, even, not in its price. The power grid of any country cannot store electricity. If its excess is formed, it is advisable to send it somewhere to the neighbors.
    In general, energy consumption varies during the day and depending on the season. Proceeding from this, the power engineers plan generation. But deviations in both directions may occur. For example, an accident at some power plant or, conversely, some large consumer does not choose the ordered volumes. For example, a steelmaking furnace is out of order. The excess must be put somewhere; the deficiency cannot be quickly filled either. And pulling the equipment in the on / off mode is very undesirable, the equipment does not like this. Therefore, the ideal way out is to enter another network. And the larger the network, the better, the easier it is to exchange energy if necessary.
    The point is that there is no single European network. There are either 6 or 7 regional networks in Europe.
    Even if the voltage and frequency of the alternating current match, this does not mean that the networks can simply be connected to each other. There are many other parameters that differ from network to network. And a simple connection will lead to a serious accident that will leave many settlements without electricity and ruin a lot of equipment. And it will take a very long time to fix it. Therefore, different networks are connected through direct current inserts (VFP), which convert the alternating current of one network into direct current, and then direct current into alternating current with the parameters of another network.
    Runways are expensive. Small ones are not profitable. Profitable cost from hundreds of millions of euros. And nobody expected to connect such a big network as Ukraine. A small network will not digest those energy drops that can happen in the Ukrainian network. Therefore, you will have to build additional runways for flows to the following networks. And who will pay for it?
    Moreover, the Balts are now disconnecting from the Russian network and connecting to the network that Poland is part of. All costs in this regard will be covered by the EU. And God forbid this network to digest the differences in the networks of the Baltic states. This network will definitely not pull Ukraine. And the EU will not bear the costs, because Ukraine is not a member of the EU.
    And the fact that electricity is more expensive in Europe is no stranger to Ukrainians. They pay for gas, which allegedly reached Europe and returned back. And everyone pretends that it is so. Although this is physically impossible.
    Well, they will also force Ukraine to pay fines for the fact that their electricity is "dirty".
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 January 2021 17: 03
    It seems about the gap was already yesterday.
    It should be compared with Hondyras, how are the tariffs, are they not growing too?
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 27 January 2021 18: 15
      It should be compared with Hondyras, how are the tariffs, are they not growing too?

      Before Honduras, they still have a lot to grow, those are about the same with Estonia. Ukrainian prices are rather closer to Bahrain and Afghanistan (by the way, in dollars it turns out cheaper than in Russia laughing ). The funny thing is the comparison with Germany, where the greenest electricity is.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 January 2021 23: 02
        Thank God. Honduras is not our rival.
        But since the neighbors have cheaper electricity, they will export it. Smuggling.
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 27 January 2021 23: 05
          I'm calm for Honduras (for the south), we'll see about the north laughing
          With regard to smuggling and export, it is not so simple, as long as they send in that direction and, apparently, will continue this way.
          1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
            Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 January 2021 23: 07
            uh ... Peremoga?
            We send them, and theirs is cheaper?
            1. 123 Offline 123
              123 (123) 27 January 2021 23: 13
              uh ... Peremoga?

              Statement of fact. They take from us and from Lukashenka.

              We send them, and theirs is cheaper?

              It happens, they send surpluses for export, in my opinion the same situation is with the Chinese or Mongols. Details need to be digged, but there is a justification for such an incident. As for Ukraine, this is all translated into dollars. It is necessary to delve into prices, contracts. How much they pay, in what currency, and so on.