Is the "Karabakh scenario" possible with regard to the Kuril Islands


The United States reaffirmed Tokyo its readiness to jointly defend the disputed Senkaku Islands from China's territorial claims. At the same time, the new head of the Pentagon discussed with his Japanese counterpart measures to respond to "threats from Russia." Is it possible to see in all this a hint from Washington that the US Navy will support the Land of the Rising Sun on the issue of "some more islands"?


For the Japanese people, the return of the Kuriles has long become a national idea, on which all the people there speculate. policy... Some time ago, Tokyo received from the Kremlin some hope for the return of Shikotan and the Habomai group of islands by negotiation. President Vladimir Putin made a series of ambiguous statements that were interpreted by the Japanese authorities as a willingness to transfer part of the "northern territories" to Russia. Prime Minister Abe even graciously allowed Russian settlers to live on the aforementioned islands for the time being. However, all these "political gestures" caused such a sharply negative assessment from the overwhelming majority of the population of our country that the topic of the Kuriles was quickly removed from the public agenda, in order to avoid it.

Judging by the comments of ordinary Japanese on social networks, they no longer count on the peaceful return of the "northern territories". But what if they are inspired by the "Karabakh scenario" and Tokyo tries to recapture the Kuril Islands by force, and the US will help them in this? No matter how fantastic it all sounds today, there are still some prerequisites for a power scenario.

The fact is that in the West in recent decades they have been consistently trying to bring a legal basis for revising the results of the Second World War, according to which the USSR and the Russian Federation, as its legal successor, became the owners of the Kaliningrad region and the Kuril Islands. Recall that back in 2009, the OSCE adopted a resolution that equalized the roles of the USSR and the Third Reich in the outbreak of World War II and called for making August 23 a day of remembrance for the victims of "Nazism and Stalinism." And in 2019, the European Parliament adopted a resolution "On the importance of European historical memory for the future of Europe", which concluded the following:

World War II was the result of the infamous Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact of 23 August 1939, also known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

In Japan, in general, the USSR's attack on the empire is considered "treacherous", since the Soviet-Japanese pact of neutrality was not annulled in the prescribed manner, but was denounced by Moscow unilaterally. Why all this is being done is not difficult to guess. This is how the international legal framework is being drawn up in order to accuse our country, as the successor of the USSR, of unleashing the worst war in history, and, therefore, to reconsider its territorial acquisitions, at the same time raising the question of compensation. Taken together, this means that before the recognition of the Kuriles by the Japanese "northern territories" by the United States and NATO countries, with their keen desire, there is not much left.

How, then, can the “Karabakh scenario” look like?

Perhaps it will start with a naval blockade of the islands by Japanese warships and the declaration of a no-fly zone over them. Undoubtedly, the US Pacific Fleet will be spinning nearby, not directly interfering in the conflict with Russia, but providing anti-aircraft cover and moral support to the allies. The Japanese will try to land troops on the Kuril Islands, and will launch warning missile strikes on the approaching ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet. The world will get very close to the dangerous line after which the RF Ministry of Defense will have the right to use nuclear weapons, starting with tactical ones, for "escalation with the aim of de-escalation." The entire world community will immediately call on Moscow to solve the problem not by military means, but through negotiations, and, probably, our authorities will allow themselves to be persuaded. Indeed, who in their minds wants to start a full-scale nuclear war?

And then very difficult times will come for our country if the results of the Second World War are revised in this way or in a similar way. The Japanese from the Kuriles will not leave anywhere, clinging to them to death. This will be followed by the question of the status of the Kaliningrad region, around which the NATO bloc has long prepared the entire military infrastructure and conducted many exercises to block and seize it.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 25 January 2021 15: 37
    -2
    The entire world community will immediately call on Moscow to solve the problem not by military means, but through negotiations, and, probably, our authorities will allow themselves to be persuaded. Indeed, who in their minds wants to start a full-scale nuclear war?

    Did the mad science fictionalize you again? smile

    And then very difficult times will come for our country if the results of the Second World War are revised in this way or in a similar way. The Japanese from the Kuriles will not leave anywhere, clinging to them to death.

    Why then? Let's look at the situation in a mirror image. Walk like that fellow , today is a day of crazy fantasies. wassat And if already Russians will try to land troops on the Kuril Islands, and on approaching ships Japanese fleet will deliver warning missile strikes. Wouldn't the Japanese authorities allow themselves to be persuaded. Indeed, who in their minds wants to start a full-scale nuclear war?

    Your whole theory is based on a phobia for the Russian leadership. For some reason, in your imagination, everyone kicks him, presses him, persuades him to make concessions. And all sorts of samurai and further down the list all such brave, nuclear bombs are beaten off with their feet.
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 26 January 2021 08: 39
      -1
      Quote: 123
      Did the mad science fictionalize you again?

      If you do not understand, the tasks for the "scribblers" are set by the editorial board. In this case, it was necessary to imagine how the extreme scenario might look. I tried to do it through the prism of the latest trends and political realities. As you can see, opinions are divided.
      On my own behalf, I would say that I would definitely not want such a scenario.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 26 January 2021 16: 28
        0
        This explains a lot. I have no more questions hi
        1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 January 2021 07: 57
          +3
          On Reporter, authors have a lot of creative freedom, which I like. I write what I think, of course, within a certain framework. There are sometimes such difficult creative tasks.
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 27 January 2021 17: 06
            0
            Creative success yes
  2. Vladest Offline Vladest
    Vladest (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 16: 25
    .
    The Karabakh scenario in the Kuriles is NOT POSSIBLE. Japan has now become a peaceful country and will never commit aggression. Aggression is the lot of the Russian Federation.
    1. Gadlei Offline Gadlei
      Gadlei 25 January 2021 16: 32
      +8
      Aggression judging by the commentary is your destiny and not Russia.
      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 16: 34
        -6
        Quote: Gadlei
        Aggression judging by the commentary is your destiny and not Russia

        Are our military bases on the territory of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine?
        1. Bulanov Online Bulanov
          Bulanov (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 16: 54
          +5
          If you, Vladvest, are an American, then your bases are present on the territory of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine in the form of military biological laboratories of the Pentagon. Of which, it is likely that the infection spreads along these efforts. those. there is a microbiological attack, or they are undergoing combat tests on citizens of these countries. The Japanese, by the way, in Unit 731 were also engaged in the spread of such an infection in other countries.
          1. Vladest Offline Vladest
            Vladest (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 16: 58
            .
            Quote: Bulanov
            If you, Vladest, are an American

            The Americans deploy their bases with the permission of sovereign states. Russia first supports the separatists, and then creates bases on their territory. Without the permission of sovereign states. There is a base in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Moldova, and Crimea in general as herring.
            1. Ulysses Offline Ulysses
              Ulysses (Alexey) 25 January 2021 21: 25
              +4
              The Americans deploy their bases with the permission of sovereign states.

              The same Syria did not give its permission for the American presence and bases.
              You are lying, to put it mildly ..
              1. Vladest Offline Vladest
                Vladest (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 21: 42
                -8
                Quote: Ulysses
                The same Syria did not give its permission for the American presence and bases.

                The song is familiar, you are a parrot for Putin's media.
                Syria is a special case. There, by the name of Assad, from whom half of the country's population fled, in general, like Hussein, needs a hemp tie.
                It should be taken into account that it was the United States that destroyed the bulk of the IS there and took their capital. The United States occupies only those territories where IS was. There is a lot of oil there and you cannot give it to Assad.
                Who in Syria should give permission for the US to be there? Assad or millions of people who suffered from them?
                What happened to you Russians? We defeated fascism in Germany, and in Syria stand on the side of the same fanatic as Hitler.
                Does the Russian Federation now help Syrian refugees a lot, except for the bags that are handed out on camera?
                I assure you as soon as Assad is hanged, the United States will leave Syria.
                But when will you clear the sovereign lands of other states from your presence?
                1. Bulanov Online Bulanov
                  Bulanov (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 09: 45
                  +5
                  Only about Hussein is not needed. You just had to wave a test tube of washing powder to kill the country of Iraq. After your occupation of Iraq, almost all Christians were killed there, even those who spoke Aramaic - who had lived there since the time of Christ. Hussein did not touch them, but others killed them with the help of your occupation of Iraq.
                  You assure that as soon as Assad is hanged, the United States will withdraw from Syria. Hussein was hanged. Has the USA left Iraq?
                  1. Vladest Offline Vladest
                    Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 10: 49
                    -6
                    Quote: Bulanov
                    It was enough for you to wave a test tube of washing powder to kill the country of Iraq

                    You know how difficult it is to communicate with talentless and stupid here. Hussein used chemical. weapons against Kurds - hundreds of victims.
                    Hussein conquered Kuwait and if not for the United States, he would have disappeared.
                    If you are in favor of using chem. weapons and for aggression against neighbors, then you must, together with Hussein, to the Court.
                    You justify the Outlaw.
                2. 123 Offline 123
                  123 (123) 26 January 2021 15: 28
                  0
                  But when will you clear the sovereign lands of other states from your presence?

                  Freedom to Afghanistan !!!!! Hang up the Estonian punishers on the yards !!!!
            2. 123 Offline 123
              123 (123) 26 January 2021 15: 25
              +2
              The Americans deploy their bases with the permission of sovereign states. Russia first supports the separatists, and then creates bases on their territory.

              How did Kosovo become "sovereign", tell me? winked

              You would be more careful with your Russophobia, the dockers of the good old town of Kolyvan will want to be independent of the limitrophes. smile
              1. Vladest Offline Vladest
                Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 15: 56
                -1
                Quote: 123
                How did Kosovo become "sovereign", tell me?

                And whose is this Kosovo? As far as I know, Kosovo is no one’s Crimea.
                You even bring reasonable arguments.
                1. 123 Offline 123
                  123 (123) 26 January 2021 16: 08
                  -1
                  And whose is this Kosovo? As far as I know, Kosovo is no one’s Crimea.
                  You even bring reasonable arguments.

                  Please, everything for you, I forgot for a moment who I was dealing with. Let's put it as simply as possible. We change one word in your proposal. I hope this will become clearer. winked So how did the American base come to be in Kosovo? winked

                  Russia first supports the separatists, and then creates bases on their territory.
                  Америка first supports the separatists, and then creates bases on their territory.
        2. Gadlei Offline Gadlei
          Gadlei 2 March 2021 02: 54
          0
          Whose databases are you writing about, yours or ours. There are no our bases on the territory of Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine.
    2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 25 January 2021 16: 39
      -1
      The Karabakh scenario in the Kuriles is NOT POSSIBLE. Japan has now become a peaceful country and will never commit aggression. Aggression is the lot of the Russian Federation.

      - Why is this "not possible" "Karabakh scenario" in relation to the Kuril Islands ???
      - And how is it possible ... - That will come to power in Russia (or the Russian oligarchs will bring him to power) ... - "Russian Pashinyan"; or "another Gorbachev"; or "a creature like bulk" ... - what a "gorgeous choice" and the Kuril Islands will simply go under the hammer ... - even without a single shot ... - True, it will not be quite a "Karabakh-Kuril" scenario ... - everything no shooting will cost; but on the other hand, if the Russian Kurils will fall "into the clutches of Japan" ... it will be forever ... - and it will be possible to put an end to this .... - But in Karabakh it is still too early to put an end to it ... - there it can still start anew ... - after the overthrow of Erdogan ... - But how soon this will happen ... - a year or two or three (maybe more) ... - it is still unknown ...
      1. Vladest Offline Vladest
        Vladest (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 16: 41
        -3
        Quote: gorenina91
        The Kurils will simply go under the hammer ... - even without a single shot

        But that's a different scenario
        1. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 26 January 2021 15: 33
          0
          But that's a different scenario

          There is another scenario smile Maybe it's time for Russia to return the real estate bought by Peter on the Baltic coast, and the movable property too winked
          1. Vladest Offline Vladest
            Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 16: 03
            0
            Quote: 123
            There is another scenario.Maybe the time has come for Russia to return the real estate bought by Peter on the Baltic coast, and the movable property too

            If you are talking about Courland for efimki, then it was not a purchase, but a Peace Treaty with the Swedes.
            Courland and Revel were already captured as a result of the victory of the Republic of Ingushetia in the Northern War.
            Then such a competent question for you - why buy if you have already won and captured Courland?
            Although you do not have anything other than a historical relationship to RI. You killed all of Peter 1's heirs and descendants.
            1. 123 Offline 123
              123 (123) 26 January 2021 16: 19
              -1
              Then such a competent question for you - why buy if you have already won and captured Courland?

              Because we are not invaders but conscientious purchasers smile

              Although you do not have anything other than a historical relationship to RI. You killed all of Peter 1's heirs and descendants.

              This pathetic excuse won't help you. Return the property. By the way why is this You, it is more appropriate to use Мы You were part of the Russian state.
              1. Vladest Offline Vladest
                Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 17: 10
                -1
                Quote: 123
                Because we are not invaders but conscientious purchasers

                You are completely devoid of logic. Logically, did you all pay for the occupied territories?
                I repeat once again that the state of Russia or the Russian Empire before 1917 has nothing to do with you, except for a historical fact.
                After the RI of the Russian Federation, this is already the second state with an age of less than 30 years.
                And consider something as your own is your right. At least Mars.
                1. 123 Offline 123
                  123 (123) 26 January 2021 17: 58
                  0
                  I repeat once again that the state of Russia or the Russian Empire before 1917 has nothing to do with you, except for a historical fact.

                  We will decide this ourselves, the opinion of the limitrophes on this issue does not interest us.

                  After the RI of the Russian Federation, this is already the second state with an age of less than 30 years.

                  How funny you are laughing Let me ask you how much in this case your state? Is it more? No. And how is this combined in the minds of your half-witted politicians with territorial claims?

                  And consider something as your own is your right. At least Mars.

                  I completely agree with you yes This is our right. This is our planet. Mars is a distant perspective.
                  1. Vladest Offline Vladest
                    Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 18: 12
                    -3
                    Quote: 123
                    How funny you are. Let me ask you how much, in this case, your state? Is it more? And how does this fit into the heads of your half-witted politicians with territorial claims?

                    I'm tired of your stupidity. ER The Republic of Estonia was formed on February 24, 1018, immediately the next day as your red heroes were attacked near Narva.
                    After the restoration of independence, all citizens who had property before the annexation of Estonia in 1940 were given back everything. That is, 100% legal succession.
                    If you have anything here, come and take it.
                    We recently celebrated 100 years.
                    Learn how to be honest.
                    If you really were that Russia, then I would still take you seriously, and so some kind of stub of the USSR with the ambitions of the USSR and Ingushetia.
                    1. 123 Offline 123
                      123 (123) 26 January 2021 18: 30
                      0
                      I'm tired of your stupidity. ER The Republic of Estonia was formed on February 24, 1018, immediately the next day as your red heroes were attacked near Narva.

                      Did you dig the Baltic Sea too? sad Millennium farm winked laughing

                      If you have anything here, come and take it.

                      Thanks for the invitation, we will think yes It is necessary to consult with Sergey Kozhugetovich what

                      If you really were that Russia, then I would still take you seriously, and so some kind of stub of the USSR with the ambitions of the USSR and Ingushetia.

                      It's not very interesting how the limitrophes perceive us and the inflated conceit. Do not worry, we will restore everything within the borders of the Russian Empire, be patient a little.
  3. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 25 January 2021 18: 15
    0
    Liberator of all delirium, the provocateurs found shelter here. The blockade of the islands is a war and there will be no Japan. Who will go for it ... unless there are such scribblers
  4. Cat Offline Cat
    Cat (Sergei) 25 January 2021 18: 40
    0
    Of course possible. Alas. Everything goes to this .... And the next "tsushima" will be in the La Perouse Strait. We, it seems, have already done everything that we shmogli for the islands ... but nothing else ... "and so the pants fall off."
    1. lahudra Offline lahudra
      lahudra (Nikolay Kondrashkin) 25 January 2021 21: 29
      -1
      Tsushima needs ships, now Russia doesn't have them. So Soloviev and Masha Zakharova will make some noise, and they will forget about the Kuril Islands. Russia does not pull the content of the entire Far East, there is no time for the islands.
  5. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 25 January 2021 18: 44
    0
    A small war with Russia and other "democratic" (not a good word) is impossible, since it will develop into a big war. And in the event of a blow to our forces, a response will follow that will cause unacceptable losses for the attackers. And the current authorities will not be allowed to persuade themselves, no matter how we treat them now.
    1. Vladest Offline Vladest
      Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 16: 09
      -2
      Quote: Dimy4
      And in the event of a blow to our forces, a response will follow, which will cause unacceptable losses for the attackers.

      You are strange people, have you forgotten the Second World War and the 27 million lost lives?
      Consider the USSR was stronger than the modern Russian Federation and it also had allies. And the war with the Russian Federation cannot even be called World War.
      1. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
        Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 26 January 2021 18: 25
        0
        Immediately offer to surrender and obey?
        1. Vladest Offline Vladest
          Vladest (Vladimir) 26 January 2021 18: 28
          -1
          Quote: Dimy4
          Immediately offer to surrender and obey?

          Do as everyone is doing now, live peacefully and deal with your inner problems. Them in the Russian Federation is above your head.
          1. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
            Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 26 January 2021 18: 57
            0
            Who do you include in the ALL category?
      2. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 26 January 2021 18: 37
        0
        You are strange people, have you forgotten the Second World War and the 27 million lost lives?
        Consider the USSR was stronger than the modern Russian Federation and it also had allies. And the war with the Russian Federation cannot even be called World War.

        We have not forgotten anything No. We remember the millions of civilians killed. The mistake cannot be repeated. There will not be any camps for Bandera and any forest brothers. Only hardcore, only with a hot iron. All Nazi henchmen will burn in a nuclear fire.
  6. faiver Offline faiver
    faiver (Andrei) 25 January 2021 19: 00
    +3
    Why does the author slow down the reaction of Russia to the aggression of Japan in his scenario, like overslept, I remind in Japan more than fifty reactors work at nuclear power plants, there is no need for ours even to use nuclear weapons, it is enough to inflict a missile strike on Japanese nuclear power plants, of course the "world community" will condemn , sanctions, other crap, well, actually everything ...
  7. HR1209 Offline HR1209
    HR1209 (HR1209) 25 January 2021 19: 41
    +1
    stop And why were they placed in Chukotka with daggers? bully
    That's interesting, after the blockade by the Japanese, and the subsequent ultimatum of the Russian Foreign Ministry. And if the Japanese strike at the Russian ships. How many ships will the Japanese have left?

    Sixes are of no value to the owner, so there is no need to feel sorry for them. And let the USA see what happens to them good
  8. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 26 January 2021 12: 50
    +2
    1) I advise the Government and the President of the Russian Federation, who will merge the Kuril Islands, or part of them, to immediately hang themselves, with their own hands, and not bring the country to another civil war, in which victory does not shine for them. As Mr. DeBreilly said - “Paris loves winners” and not only Paris, nobody needs losers.
    2) As for the war, by lowering the flag of the USSR and capitulating to NATO, Gorbachev and company caused more damage to the countries of the former USSR than Hitler and company. So again I see no point in lowering the flag in front of the Yankees and their slaves. If they want war, it means to multiply all this NATO by zero and the United States in the first place, with nuclear and volume-detonating ammunition. If it completely pressures to use all the remaining ammunition of chemical and bacteriological weapons. We will die defending our own and NATO beasts with their lackeys and send them to hell, where they belong !!!!
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 January 2021 07: 39
      0
      Quote: Sapsan136
      If it completely pressures to use all the remaining ammunition of chemical and bacteriological weapons.

      It seems to be chemical. weapons to zero were eliminated several years ago. Early and with pomp ...
      https://www.rbc.ru/society/27/09/2017/59cb9f2b9a79472490943b5b
      Everyone was outplayed, as usual.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 27 January 2021 20: 48
        +2
        It is easy to reproduce, even if all of a sudden it is really all liquidated.
        1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) 28 January 2021 08: 57
          0
          Somewhere I met Old that at the same time the places of production were liquidated.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 29 January 2021 17: 14
            +1
            Chemical weapons have been produced in huge quantities since the First World War. The technology of its production is not very difficult. It is much more difficult and expensive to liquidate it than to manufacture
  9. stepet Offline stepet
    stepet 27 January 2021 13: 27
    -6
    Is the "Karabakh scenario" possible with regard to the Kuril Islands

    What for?
    Everyone is waiting for the outcome of the process that began in 2014.
    And this process, admittedly, is under way.
    In the USSR, it lasted 12 years.
  10. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 28 January 2021 19: 51
    0
    The Second World War was the result of the infamous Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact of 23 August 1939, also known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

    The author, before you write such nonsense, teach history! Only not according to the textbooks of the Baltic states and Poland. World War II began in 1938 when Poland and Germany invaded Czechoslovakia. This is an axiom!
    1. stepet Offline stepet
      stepet 28 January 2021 20: 12
      -4
      Quote: Dust
      World War II began in 1938 when Poland and Germany attacked Czechoslovakia. This is an axiom!

      And nothing at all that there was no attack by Poland and Germany on Czechoslovakia in 1938? In principle, such events did not happen, did not happen.
  11. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 2 February 2021 11: 05
    +1
    Perhaps it will begin with a naval blockade of the islands by Japanese warships and the declaration of a no-fly zone over them.

    - The author, it's not serious what you write. The Far East is packed with various Russian military installations. The Japanese are not so frostbitten as to attack a nuclear country that can destroy Japan in just 15 minutes. The author must understand that a nuclear war is not just a war, but a war aimed at the rate of destruction of the country. I do not give Japan a single chance in this war! As for the United States, harnessing for Japan, the more they will not expose their territory to risks.