Will the Kremlin's bet on gold work under Biden?


Joe Biden's team joins the White House economic policy The United States in relation to China and Russia must undergo significant changes. Under Donald Trump, the Kremlin has relied on gold as an anti-crisis defensive asset, but will it work now?


Recall that until the spring of 2018, our Central Bank held up to 48% of its reserves in US currency. Everything changed after Washington began to strengthen anti-Russian sanctions, imposing them against the inner circle of President Vladimir Putin. Fearing their further tightening, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation began to reduce the share of the dollar in its assets by increasing the amount of euros and yuan, as well as gold. As of the beginning of last summer, the "American" accounted for 22,2% of the total, which corresponded to $ 124,6 billion, and the yellow metal - 22,9%, respectively - 128,5 billion. And as of January 11, 2021, the cost of the precious metal for the first time surpassed the value of the American currency in the reserves of the Central Bank.

It would seem that hurray, comrades, the bet was made correctly, and we must continue to build up gold reserves, striving to rise higher in the rating of its largest holders. However, since April last year, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for some reason stopped buying this precious metal, and it went for export. It is also unprofitable for ordinary Russians to take gold as a "stash" for a rainy day because of the high VAT, which is 20%. Why is this happening and what will happen next?

On the one handThe central bank's bet on gold was indeed correct. Precious metal is traditionally a very reliable defensive asset. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis, its value has risen speculatively, which had a beneficial effect on the aggregate estimate of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. This is despite the fact that since last April, these volumes in the storage of the regulator in physical terms have not increased, remaining at the level of 73,9 million troy ounces. Moreover, during the presidency of the "imperial" Donald Trump, rumors circulated and the topic of the possibility of returning to the gold standard was widely discussed. Large reserves of this precious metal in such an international context were, to put it mildly, not superfluous.

On the other hand, by itself, gold is a relatively low-liquid asset. It must be securely guarded and transported, which costs a lot of money. You cannot distribute physical gold to its population and business for support, and they will not be able to provide real trading operations. This requires a currency, the same “damned” dollar, which is still in demand. It is necessary to understand that with the revenge of the “globalists” in the United States, we will have to forget about dreams of returning to the gold standard, no one will allow this anymore. This means that it is simply inappropriate to reduce the share of “American” and “European” in favor of the yellow metal in the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation below a certain limit.

The dollar is weak for a number of cause, but when the "globalists" get down to business again, he will in the future be able to return to parity with the euro. Most likely, President Biden will continue the trade war with China in order to get Beijing to strengthen the yuan and reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exporters. The new version of the "nuclear deal" with Tehran, if it is concluded, will lead to the release of Iranian oil to the market and a further drop in quotations of "black gold". Then the speculative price of the yellow metal will significantly decrease, while the dollar, on the contrary, will win back its positions. It is not hard to guess how these transformations will affect the value of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, given their current structure.
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  1. Barmaley_2 Offline Barmaley_2
    Barmaley_2 (Barmaley) 13 January 2021 12: 27
    0
    It's so funny to read the throwing of the author Sergei Marzhetsky from "tender trepidation" before the golden calf, to, on the other hand, "he is a problem, that's why and because of that" and "it's not profitable to take gold as a" stash "for a rainy day ...
    I'll tell you even more! The problem is NOT with the dollar or gold. The problem, as such and the main one, is the fall in the efficiency of capital in the existing GLOBAL system of division of labor so far, led by the United States. There is no "image of the future" (by the way, the Russian authorities have also made some attempts to create their own "system") and because of this it is absolutely impossible to predict anything in the long term with more or less accurate forecasts. At the moment, one can only declare with a high degree of probability that the next year or two will be quite strong (under Trump, too, but more gradual and a bit smaller, most likely) the fall of the US and China's economy.
  2. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 13 January 2021 12: 42
    +2
    It is necessary to understand that with the revenge of the “globalists” in the United States, we will have to forget about dreams of returning to the gold standard, no one will allow this anymore.

    ABOUT!!!! Again, someone should allow ..... Maybe it's time to get rid of the Kholui worldview?

    Most likely, President Biden will continue the trade war with China in order to get Beijing to strengthen the yuan and reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exporters. The new version of the "nuclear deal" with Tehran, if it is concluded, will lead to the release of Iranian oil to the market and a further drop in quotations of "black gold".

    You have a rich imagination yes How many strange assumptions fit in one paragraph.
    Let's assume that the United States will continue to put pressure on China, although in my opinion the emphasis is likely to shift to Russia.
    How is a deal with Iran possible in this case? China's positions are strong there, it is quite difficult to put pressure on them and at the same time normalize relations with Iran. Why would Iran go for a new deal if it is not worth the paper it says on? Incidentally, this will inevitably lead to a "cooling" in relations with Israel. Why would the US release cheap Iranian oil into the market? Do they want to finish off their oil workers? After all, they were seeking to raise it ..

    What pleases, to your conclusions about the impending troubles and misfortunes that are inevitable for Russia, the eyeliner has less to do with reality winked
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 13: 10
    +3
    Sergey, there is such a word "clearing". I was introduced to him in the mid-70s in political economy.
    In the future, the world will be divided into currency zones, each zone will have its own reserve currency and the national currencies of the countries in the zone will remain. Between currency zones, settlement can be made in gold by clearing. That is, all operations are carried out electronically, and at the end of the billing period (for example, a year), the results are summed up and the resulting difference, in gold, is forwarded to the one who has a positive balance.
    This is the first time I hear that gold is a low-liquid product. It's just that now people are trying to withdraw capital (including black) from securities, abroad, from existing currencies, and the purchase of physical gold has been made as transparent as possible, which is why bitcoin is popular.
    The dollar is "damned" not by itself, but because it is under the jurisdiction of one state (as well as the euro). There was an attempt to withdraw the dollar from the jurisdiction of the United States under the jurisdiction of the IMF, but this ended in the case of Strauss Kahn. If you remember, the completely absurd case of "rape" by IMF Director Dominique Strauss Kahn of a black maid, as big as a grenadier and as scary as my life.
    After the resignation of Strauss Kahn (and the refusal to withdraw the dollar into the jurisdiction of the IMF), the matter stopped by itself.
    The euro, as a reserve currency, is as unacceptable as the dollar. For the reason that it is under the jurisdiction of the EU.
    And they will not create a new currency, there are too many opportunities for scamming with both paper and electronic currencies.
    Therefore - only gold.
    1. Uneven Offline Uneven
      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 13 January 2021 14: 57
      -4
      In the future, the world will be divided into currency zones, each zone will have its own reserve currency and the national currencies of the countries included in the zone will remain

      This is the program of those who nominated Trump. Biden's team has other plans.
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 16: 56
        +5
        What we know as "Biden's team plans" is an election video launched 1,5 years ago, and invented even earlier. Since then, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge. The IMF announced a large-scale crisis a year ago, and in October - the division into currency zones. The Fed has started talking about the gold standard.
        Kamala Harris just started to run into BLM because they "can't stop." And with what fear should they stop? So BLM is a team subordinate to the Democrats, it just doesn't want to stop, I liked it.
        And the globalists from the beginning of last year realized that the previous program would lead to a rapid collapse, but they have not yet understood how to proceed.
        1. Uneven Offline Uneven
          Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 13 January 2021 18: 03
          -2
          What we know as "Biden's team plans" is an election video launched 1,5 years ago, and invented even earlier

          What "video" are we talking about?
          1. boriz Offline boriz
            boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 18: 28
            +4
            In this case, a figurative expression. "Promotion" planned 2 years ago and, therefore, has lost its relevance.
    2. Uneven Offline Uneven
      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 13 January 2021 15: 15
      -4
      The dollar is "damned" not in itself, but because it is under the jurisdiction of one state (as, indeed, the euro)

      a) Can you give an example of "non-cursed" currencies other than the euro?
      b) Which country is under the "jurisdiction" of the euro?
      1. boriz Offline boriz
        boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 16: 48
        +2
        b) Which country is under the "jurisdiction" of the euro?

        Under the jurisdiction of the EU.

        a) Can you give an example of "non-cursed" currencies other than the euro?

        In the Yalta 2.0 process, the leaders of the leading powers will get together and decide what to do, choose a common currency (at least come up with a new one), or gold.
        1. Uneven Offline Uneven
          Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 13 January 2021 18: 01
          -3
          The EU is not a state, but a community of states.
          1. boriz Offline boriz
            boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 18: 30
            +4
            Do you have currency? Do you have a budget? Is there a government? Are there any boundaries? Is there any legislation?
            This means it is a confederation state.
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 13 January 2021 13: 12
    +4
    The article mentions twice the "speculative gold price". So this is the firm opinion of the author. What is the confidence in speculation based on? On the fact that the price of gold is growing steadily?
    Gold price for 2000 $ 279 per troy ounce
    Gold price for 2020 $ 1748 per troy ounce
    These are the average figures for the year.
    Moreover, in 2000, no one heard of any Trump.
    I would talk about the speculative price of cryptocurrencies. If the price of bitcoin jumps from 30 to 40 thousand apiece within a couple of days, then this is sheer speculation.
    And one moment. If the globalists propose to flood the economic fire with dollars (toss them from a helicopter), then how can the dollar strengthen?
  5. Ryzzard ewiak Offline Ryzzard ewiak
    Ryzzard ewiak (Ryszard Ewiak) 13 January 2021 13: 36
    +1
    Biden is the American Yeltsin. He will not strengthen the United States.
    1. Uneven Offline Uneven
      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 13 January 2021 14: 54
      -2
      Information from theologians?
  6. ImPerts Offline ImPerts
    ImPerts (Igor) 13 January 2021 15: 56
    +3
    For the dollar system to continue to exist, the unconditional primacy of the United States in the world is necessary. At the moment, the dollar is held by old memory on the inertia of memory and well-established principles. Plus China, which needs to sterilize its yuan mass by shifting inflationary costs onto the United States. At the same time, he is looking for new options that will save the yuan printing press without undue pressure from this mass on his monetary system. Well, everyone is trying to come up with a new formula for "happiness" in the new era. And so far nothing has been invented better than gold.
    And the Central Bank of Russia stopped buying gold due to the crisis. It is better to buy gold on the eve of the crisis. Then, in the crisis itself, it is better not to do this, there is no money anyway.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 13 January 2021 17: 18
      +3
      Working in the dollar system has its drawbacks. But the exit from the dollar system will also be accompanied by serious setups. Both financial and technical. We do not know the complete set of these "miracles". For example, blackouts in Pakistan, the Vatican and Iran are happening for a reason. And there are methods of exposure in addition to electricity.
      For example, in Kaluga, a year and a half ago, gas pressure rose throughout the city. and In the apartments and on the street (near the gas distribution station, the GRSH and large external valves) it smelled of "gas", that is, mercaptan. The population was presented with some kind of nonsense, such as "planned refueling with mercaptan." People, though dimly aware of how it works, did not believe it.
      Such warnings keep governments in good shape and get rid of excess freethinking.
      While everything is kept on by Microsoft and monopoly Internet companies, we are puppets on strings.
      As for gold, I had a long time ago the assumption that gold in the Russian Federation is stored not only (and perhaps not so much) in the Central Bank. Moreover, quite officially.
      In the State Reserve, in addition to any food, there are reserves of a variety of resources necessary for the functioning of the state in a "special period". Fuels and lubricants, consumables ... Including materials and components required for the industry. Gold is one such material. But how much to put it there is up to the Commander-in-Chief, not Nabiullina.
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  8. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 13 January 2021 20: 23
    -1
    Will the Kremlin's bet on gold work under Biden?

    What's the gold bet? There is no bet! Gold is not really money, much less finance. Gold is nothing more than a reserve commodity, an insurance policy. By itself, the gold reserve does not make the country rich, because it is, though accumulative, but insurance.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 13 January 2021 21: 55
      0
      Quote: AlexZN
      Gold is not really money, much less finance.

      Alexzn... And why is gold not exactly money? Can't gold be a measure of the value of goods and services? lol
  9. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 13 January 2021 22: 07
    -1
    Quote: isofat
    Quote: AlexZN
    Gold is not really money, much less finance.

    Alexzn... And why is gold not exactly money? Can't gold be a measure of the value of goods and services? lol

    Can not. You have to translate it into money for this, i.e. sell like any other product. The difference is in high liquidity and some historical specifics. It was only a couple of years ago that Basel III (an international banking agreement) decided to re-credit banks with gold as a monetary asset.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 13 January 2021 22: 27
      +2
      Quote: AlexZN
      Can not. You must translate it into money for this, i.e. sell like any other product.

      Earlier you said that gold is not really money... Now say that gold is not money.

      So give me a definition of money, what is money. You are using this concept. And we, together with you, will figure out why gold suddenly lost its ability to be money. lol

      Get started. Money is a measure of value ...
  10. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 13 January 2021 23: 15
    -1
    but when the "globalists" get down to business again, he will be able to return to parity with the euro in the future.

    But what about the repeated promises in the articles that the dollar will fall ???
  11. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 14 January 2021 08: 47
    -1
    Quote: isofat
    Quote: AlexZN
    Can not. You must translate it into money for this, i.e. sell like any other product.

    Earlier you said that gold is not really money... Now say that gold is not money.

    So give me a definition of money, what is money. You are using this concept. And we, together with you, will figure out why gold suddenly lost its ability to be money. lol

    Get started. Money is a measure of value ...

    Almost money because it is not a measure of value. Such is the dollar today. In case you haven't noticed, this gold is priced in dollars, not the other way around. But the main thing is a means of payment, gold has long ceased to be such. At the same time, one must understand a certain conventionality of the line between gold and money, after all, both are goods (like oil, sausages, etc.). It was not for nothing that I mentioned the concept of liquidity, it makes gold almost money, but volatility is the opposite.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 14 January 2021 15: 07
      0
      Where is the definition of money? About which I asked you. request
  12. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 14 January 2021 16: 05
    0
    Quote: isofat
    Where is the definition of money? About which I asked you. request

    Quote: isofat
    Where is the definition of money? About which I asked you. request

    The definition you want is evidently in the first volume of Capital Marx :) The fact is that since money became fiat, it is difficult to define money in a format available to us. In its most simplified form, it is a product capable of performing the very same five functions. Gold received its international index, but in real practice it does not function as a means of payment.
    Do not look for simple wording, if I wrote - not really money, then believe me.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 14 January 2021 16: 25
      0
      Quote: AlexZN
      The definition you want is visible in the first volume of Capital Marx

      I ask you to give me definition money that you use. Am I asking something impossible from you?
      1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
        Alexzn (Alexander) 14 January 2021 21: 31
        0
        Money is an economic category in which it manifests itself and with the help of which relationships between people are built.
        Money is a commodity with some specific properties. According to Marx:
        1) a measure of value;
        2) a means of circulation;
        3) a means of accumulation (the formation of treasures when withdrawn from circulation);
        4) a means of payment (repayment of debts in the payment of loans, taxes, land rent, etc.)
        5) world money (in circulation between countries).

        With the development of capitalism, gold, historically advanced to the role of money (universal equivalent), began to be replaced by fiduciary money, and since the middle of the 20th century by fiat money. Gold was ousted from the circulation of money, having transferred it to a reserve commodity with high liquidity and the ability to transfer into any type of fiat money. Money can be international, national, convertible, freely convertible, non-convertible, reserve.
        1. isofat Offline isofat
          isofat (isofat) 14 January 2021 22: 07
          +1
          Gold has not lost its ability to be money. It was interesting to watch your attempts to get away from answering a direct question. Not only you could not answer this question.



          When asked by Republican Senator Ron Paul:
          - Is gold money?
          Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the Fed, said:
          - Not
          - But why do central banks hold gold if gold is not money? - asked Ron Paul.
          There was a pause, after which Bernanke replied:
          - Because it's a tradition

          laughing
  13. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 14 January 2021 16: 17
    -2
    Will the Kremlin's bet on gold work under Biden?

    - Who knows ... -will work or not ... -It depends on God alone ...
    - And the fact that the Kremlin has relied on its national gold is already a fact ... - well, there is nothing to do ...
    - Generally ... in today's topic:

    Saudi Arabia surrenders in oil confrontation with Russia

    - personally, I have already mentioned gold ... - Here the "visualization" of the beginning of the Russian squandering has already begun ... - in parallel, they try to bind "poor gold" to it ... - Well, it's all in a different topic ...
    - Generally ... - gold ... is not a commodity and not a monetary unit, as some here try to imagine ... - Gold is a stronghold, it is a pledge, it is a fund for the life of the state ...
    - Here the state has land, rivers, seas, lakes, forests, fields, etc. ... - these are all immovable "state property" ... - And there is also state gold in depositories ... - this is all movable state property. .. -But this does not mean that this immovable property can be used ... -it cannot be used ... -If the state began to sell its gold, then something urgent happened in this state ... -the war began (and the state needs funds for war); it is urgent to start the construction of very important facilities; there was a catastrophic fall in the economy, and so on ... - And so simply state gold cannot be touched !!! - This is practically the bios of the state and its economy ... - In other words ... - the state begins to donate blood in order to survive ... - Well, how much blood can you donate ... - a lot is simply impossible ... - it just starts to die the whole organism of the state ...
    - Here, some still mention clearing ... - so this is not about gold ... - And clearing from Russia ... - very, very limited ... - As under Tsar Pea (as in WWII and as in WWII - there is nothing changed.) ...
    - load gold with steamers and carry it overseas ... - so what kind of clearing is there ...
    - I'll take the conversation aside ... - In the times of the USSR, with a powerful Soviet economy, there were fixed assets and working capital ...

    Working capital is working capital and funds of circulation in monetary terms. Working capital, embodied in inventory (working capital and balances of finished products), form the company's own working capital (association). Their minimum size (standard), ensuring the smooth operation of the enterprise, is established by the superior organization, based on the specific conditions of production and economic activity.

    - But by the way ... - you shouldn't climb so far ...

    Will the Kremlin's bet on gold work under Biden?

    - In short ... - personally, I don't think that ... what ... that under Biden (as well as under Trump, as well as under Obama, etc., etc.) ... - "the Kremlin's bet on gold" is not will work ...
  14. isofat Offline isofat
    isofat (isofat) 14 January 2021 16: 46
    0
    Sergey Marzhetsky, good day. I read that you posted the topic, thanks. In the process of reading, I found interesting material about gold and money, an authoritative source. As a token of gratitude, I share a link to it.

    https://www.kdggold.com/ru/content/zoloto-eto-dengi-ili-tovar

    PS And we are here with AlexZN (Alexander) indulge in buns. laughing
  15. isofat Offline isofat
    isofat (isofat) 14 January 2021 21: 21
    0
    https://www.kdggold.com/ru/content/zoloto-eto-dengi-ili-tovar/

    PS I posted the link again, the link above does not work (the URL is definitely not the one).
  16. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 14 January 2021 23: 25
    -2
    Quote: isofat
    Gold has not lost its ability to be money.

    Gold has lost the ability to be money IN THE FULL VOLUME, i.e. be a universal equivalent and, most importantly, a means of payment. I wrote for a reason that there are different levels of money, different forms. Seashells can also be money in the derain deep in the Amazon. The ruble is money, the dollar is money, the tugrik is money ... but these are different money.
    And yes, I am a supporter of T.Z. Bernanke - by tradition, gold is still considered money, but it has not been used as money for a long time.
  17. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 14 January 2021 23: 29
    -1
    Quote: isofat
    https://www.kdggold.com/ru/content/zoloto-eto-dengi-ili-tovar/

    PS I posted the link again, the link above does not work (the URL is definitely not the one).

    By the way, to the question about gold as money, Kudrin also answered - he does not see such an opportunity, painfully gold and even gold backing does not correspond to the existing financial system.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 15 January 2021 00: 04
      +1
      Quote: AlexZN
      ... gold and even gold backing does not fit the current financial system.

      So we need to deal with the financial system. I hope you don’t have the heart to say that the financial system is perfect?

      PS What comes first, gold or the financial system? This is me about your words that gold does not match the financial system. I think Kudrin's phrase sounded differently.
  18. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 15 January 2021 08: 55
    -1
    Quote: isofat
    Quote: AlexZN
    ... gold and even gold backing does not fit the current financial system.

    So we need to deal with the financial system. I hope you don’t have the heart to say that the financial system is perfect?

    PS What comes first, gold or the financial system? This is me about your words that gold does not match the financial system. I think Kudrin's phrase sounded differently.

    The primary is the financial system, of course! Gold has long been secondary and if there is no world war or cataclysm, it will generally go to the margins. And as the classics wrote, sooner or later they will make a urinal out of it in a public toilet.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 15 January 2021 11: 22
      0
      Quote: AlexZN
      Gold has long been secondary and if there is no world war or cataclysm, it will generally go to the margins

      Alexzn, God created the Earth, then man. And only then man created an imperfect financial system.

      PS hi
  19. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 15 January 2021 12: 03
    -1
    Quote: isofat
    Quote: AlexZN
    Gold has long been secondary and if there is no world war or cataclysm, it will generally go to the margins

    Alexzn, God created the Earth, then man. And only then man created an imperfect financial system.

    PS hi

    1. ... but not even higher!
    2. Secondary is not necessarily a temporary concept.