Why Poland will not be able to block Russian gas to Europe

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Poland is haunted by the idea of ​​laying a gas pipeline through its own territory. So Warsaw expects, firstly, to make money on gas transit to the countries of Western and Central Europe, and secondly, to reduce energy dependence on Russia. We are talking about the Baltic Pipe project - the Baltic gas pipeline through which gas from Norway could flow to Western Europe.



At the end of 2017, the Polish state-owned oil and gas company PGNiG reserved gas pipeline capacity for 15 years. The Polish leadership hopes for an annual throughput of 10 billion cubic meters. If Warsaw’s plans are destined to be realized, then in 2022 the gas pipeline can begin its work. The lobbying of the project is “Law and Justice” - a conservative политическая party with a majority in the Polish Sejm. It is she who is represented by both the current Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Muravecki and the country's President Andrzej Duda.

For Poland, the construction of its own gas pipeline represents an important alternative to the Russian Nord Stream 2, which Warsaw has been opposing for a long time and very resolutely. Poland even called on the United States to impose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 project, as well as fine those European companies that are involved in the construction of the Nord Stream.

Washington has repeatedly stated that they support Poland’s protests against the construction of a Russian-European gas pipeline. The American position is understandable - economic Washington’s interests are not at all interested in Western Europe, but there is a desire to harm Russia, which is why the Americans cover it with an ephemeral “concern” about the energy security of the EU countries and their independence from Russian supplies. This once again shows that for the United States and Poland the issue of building a gas pipeline is not an economic, but a political and ideological one.

At the same time, the position of Warsaw causes dissatisfaction among the countries of the European Union, primarily Germany. Berlin is a key link in the Nord Stream 2 project, since the gas pipeline should connect Russia with Germany. Gas supplies within the framework of Nord Stream-2 from Russia to Germany will seriously reduce the costs and risks of transporting energy resources. In early February 2018, German authorities officially issued permission to lay a 55-kilometer offshore section of the gas pipeline along German territory.

Despite all the difficult relations with Russia, they are good at counting and saving money in the countries of Western Europe, and political populism, in contrast to Poland, is second, if not third, for Western European states. Therefore, European companies are actively building Nord Stream-2, financing the project in half with Gazprom. At present, the parties have already invested in almost the same amount - one and a half billion dollars - in the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

When the project is launched, at least 55 billion cubic meters of gas will go to Europe through it annually. If everything happens without excesses, gas supplies will begin at the end of 2019. Thus, we see that even the volume of gas supplies with the help of Nord Stream -2 is completely incompatible with the supply plans in the case of the construction of the Polish gas pipeline. Moreover, Poland, even with the most convenient layouts for itself, will be able to build and launch the gas pipeline much later than the Nord Stream 2 operation.
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