In 2021, the world may face a new war in the Mediterranean

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The year 2020, which is difficult in every respect, is coming to an end, but the next one has every chance of being even more difficult. In addition to the very real risk of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East between the United States, Iran and Israel, a violent clash between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean is possible. And then the case will check whether the vaunted "invisible" F-35 and Russian air defense systems S-400 are so good.

Greece and Turkey are historical adversaries. They tried to reconcile them within the framework of the NATO bloc, but failed. Today the situation is aggravated by the fact that both countries are in a state of severe economic crisis and need drivers for recovery and growth. These could be the huge gas fields discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Cyprus. Those who will control their development and export to the EU countries will receive tens of billions of dollars. Inspired by the grandiose successes in Nagorno-Karabakh, the newly-minted "sultan" Erdogan may try to resolve the issue by force again. However, everything is much more complicated than he would like.



Strictly speaking, Cyprus does not belong to Greece, it is a sovereign state inhabited by ethnic Greeks and Turks. Ankara points to the Cyprus Convention of June 4, 1878, where the island is defined as part of the Ottoman Empire. In 1969, Great Britain partially recognized Turkey's rights to the island, and in 1974 Ankara carried out a military intervention, as a result of which the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was created. Despite the fact that it is recognized only by Turkey itself, this does not prevent the TRNC from successfully existing to this day. By the way, the Turks managed to solve the problem of water supply to their exclave by building an underwater water pipeline from the continent to the island. This is information for thought.

The problem of cohabitation of the Greek and Turkish parts of Cyprus was aggravated today by the discovery of gas deposits nearby, as well as the fact that the island is a key point for the construction of a transit pipeline from Israel to Europe. Ankara wants to get its share of all this abundance, but the Greeks look at the issue differently. There is reason to believe that Turkey may try to apply the Karabakh experience of solving the problem by force in Cyprus. At the disposal of President Erdogan, a powerful navy, the Turkish army is considered the strongest in NATO after the US. The Turks have attack UAVs that have shown themselves well in Nagorno-Karabakh, they are covered from the air with the latest Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. Information appeared in the press that the military, who were involved in a failed coup attempt a few years ago, began to be released from Turkish prisons ahead of schedule.

In theory, events can develop as follows. With regard to the Turkish part of Cyprus, some provocations are taking place from the Greek side, which prompts Ankara to impose a naval blockade on the island and send a military contingent there. This immediately forces Athens to intervene to protect the Greek population of Cyprus, who can send their fleet to the island and start some kind of hostilities on the land border with Turkey. Ankara looks stronger and, being left alone with Greece, can simultaneously “squeeze out” other disputed islands from it.

The problem for President Erdogan is that Athens will most likely not be handed over to him to be torn apart. The neo-Ottoman exercises of the newly-minted "sultan" cause great concern among all of Turkey's neighbors without exception. North of Syria, Libya with its sea shelf, Nagorno-Karabakh, now the Greek islands, but what next? Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East? Formal NATO allies will be forced to support Greece.

As a matter of fact, the United States has already begun to do this defiantly. For the purchase of the S-400, they imposed sanctions on Ankara. The Americans excluded the Turks from their F-35 program, transferring six fifth generation fighters to the Greeks. The Pentagon made it clear that it is considering the Heraklion airbase in Greek Crete as a replacement for Incirliku. Washington intends to fortify near Turkey's Dardanelles, where the US Army Corps of Engineers is currently upgrading the port of Alexandroupolis. These are quite serious signals to Ankara that it would be very imprudent to ignore.

Will President Erdogan go to a military conflict with Greece? "Sultan" bites off only a piece that it can swallow. Obviously, it will focus on the updated external policies Democratic Party of the United States. What will it be? We'll see.
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  1. 0
    28 December 2020 16: 37
    Powerful armed forces of Azerbaijan and Ukraine can help Turkey in its aspirations?
  2. 0
    28 December 2020 17: 37
    and in 1974, Ankara carried out a military intervention

    July 15, 1974 by the Cypriot reactionary forces with the support of the Athenian military junta, which was pursuing a course of "enosis" (annexation of the island to Greece), there was an attempted coup d'état in Cyprus.
    The President of Cyprus Makarios III was removed from power. The putschists, led by Nikos Sampson, seized the capital's airport, the government radio station, the presidential palace, and a number of administrative institutions in Nicosia. As a guarantor country, Turkey used the situation as an excuse to land troops on the island under the pretext of restoring constitutional order and protecting the rights of Turkish Cypriots.
    1. +3
      28 December 2020 18: 41
      I repeat, when the main godfather weakens (USA) and there is no such iron fist, redistributions of godfathers of a lower rank begin, which we see so far in the Middle East, not far off in other regions of the world, new forces are being squeezed from the old rulers from the "Washington circle" Erdogan is a fine fellow, uses the moment and achieves, at least little by little, in his favor ... An era is coming for everyone who is stronger, he is right, and fights "on fists" are not excluded, the example of Karabakh is contagious ...
      1. -5
        28 December 2020 21: 38
        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        I repeat when the main godfather weakens (USA)

        I am moved by the naive belief of some Russians in the weakening of the United States. Gentlemen, you are clearly trying to pass off wishful thinking.

        Quote: Vladimir Tuzakov
        Erdogan is a fine fellow, seizes the moment and achieves, at least little by little, in his favor ...

        Erdogan, like most of his fellow believers, is brazenly cowardly - after the first decent splash, he sets his tail between his legs, it is verified. wassat
    2. 0
      29 December 2020 09: 03
      Quote: Bakht
      On July 15, 1974, the Cypriot reactionary forces, with the support of the Athenian military junta, which was pursuing a course towards "enosis" (annexation of the island to Greece), attempted a coup d'état in Cyprus.

      "KiprNASH" hi If it had worked out, they would have called not reactionary, but people's liberation forces, but the junta - heroes.
  3. +2
    28 December 2020 20: 46
    Quote: Bakht
    being left alone with Greece, it can simultaneously “squeeze out” other disputed islands from it.

    As for the "disputed" islands - according to the Lausanne Treaty, all islands located more than three nautical miles from the Turkish coast and whose names are not included in this treaty are transferred to Greece. It is worth recalling that in the Aegean Sea there are more than 3.000 islands, islets and rocks, i.e. the inclusion of all these topographic names in the international treaty was problematic. These illegal claims, once again show the reason for the ardent desire of the Turks to revise the Lausanne Treaty, signed in 1923 by more than 20 states of the world and securing state borders in this vast region, including the countries of the Middle East, former colonies of the Ottoman Empire.

    The main problem in the Eastern Mediterranean is the failure to recognize the 1982 Maritime Convention by Turkey. This document has been ratified by more than 150 coastal states, and since, according to international law on international treaties and convections, the signing of a document by the overwhelming number of states of the international community becomes the basic norm for all states, regardless of the consent or disagreement of a particular state, i.e. e. Turkey positions itself, at the legal level, as an adversary to the entire international community. In this document in par. 121 states that all islands have an EEZ (exclusive economic zone), like the continental land, with which, publicly, Turkey declares its disagreement.

    In addition, Turkey loudly defines its aggressive expansion in this region, ostensibly in full compliance with international law, i.e. there is a deliberate substitution of the concepts of international legal practice. But this is not all, pushing its concept of international law, Turkey moved to a gross practical violation of the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus, for more than a year conducting pirate exploration drilling, in the EEZ of Cyprus delimited with neighboring states, according to the Maritime Convention, and since July 2020, that the same scenario is being promoted on the Greek shelf.
    1. 0
      28 December 2020 21: 31
      So who owns Cyprus? Greece or Turkey? And who owns the EEZ?
      1. +2
        28 December 2020 22: 36
        Cyprus is an independent state, a member of the UN and the EU, recognized by most countries in the world, except Turkey. The humor is that at the same time Turkey is the guarantor (along with Greece and Great Britain) of the integrity and independence of this state, not recognizing diplomatically and occupying 40% of the territory. And since, according to international law (the 1982 Maritime Convention), each coastal state has its own EEZ, then Cyprus can and should use its shelf and its EEZ at its own discretion within the framework of the same convention - which it does. The question is, what is the guarantor of Cyprus, Turkey doing there and by what right?
        1. 0
          28 December 2020 23: 47
          Thank God (Praise be to the Almighty) on the Green Line passing through Nicosia everything has been quiet and calm for many years. The city of Limassol is informally referred to as "Russian", I know firsthand ...
        2. 0
          29 December 2020 08: 24
          In fact, Turkey protects Turkish Cypriots from Greek Cypriots. The creation of the federal republic of Cyprus was blocked by the Greek side. It was a UN plan called the Annan Plan. The Turks agreed, the Greeks did not. There are too many differences in culture, history, mentality to create a single state. And the Greeks do not agree to federalization.
          About the economy. Turkish Cypriots have the same rights to the EEZ as Greek Cypriots. Another thing is what Greece is doing there?
          The only solution is the federal republic of Cyprus, the withdrawal of Turkish troops and the creation of a proportional government. Turkey agrees to this. Greece opposes. The referendum was profiled in 2004.
          So Turkey protects the rights of Turkish citizens there. And Turkish Cypriots have the same rights to economic activity as Greek Cypriots.
          Greece should not have pursued a policy of joining Cyprus there. The roots of the conflict are from there. From Athens.
          1. +2
            29 December 2020 09: 07
            Quote: Bakht
            So Turkey protects the rights of Turkish citizens there. And Turkish Cypriots have the same rights to economic activity as Greek Cypriots.
            Greece should not have pursued a policy of joining Cyprus there. The roots of the conflict are from there. From Athens.

            Yes, you look, if Russia had not annexed Crimea, there would have been no conflict with Ukraine and no sanctions. smile Within the framework of this logic, you can agree on a lot, right?
            Or maybe Greece did have some historical rights to reunite with Cyprus? And the rights of Turkish Cypriots, of course, should not be infringed upon in any way.
            1. -1
              29 December 2020 09: 10
              "Historical law" is the weakest argument in such matters. And everyone is recognized as having no legal basis.
          2. +1
            29 December 2020 09: 27
            The roots of the conflict lie both in Athens and in Istanbul (not Ankara, namely from the Ottoman Empire). But at the moment, there is only one recognized state of the Republic of Cyprus and all the territories around the island are the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus.
            1. 0
              29 December 2020 09: 32
              In Resolution 573, the Council of Europe upheld the legitimacy of the first wave of Turkish invasion in July 1974, in accordance with Article 4 of the 1960 Safeguards Treaty, which allows Turkey, Greece and the United Kingdom to intervene unilaterally for military purposes. The Athens Court of Appeal further stated in 1979 that the first wave of the Turkish invasion was legal and that "The real culprits ... are the Greek officers who planned and staged the coup and prepared the conditions for the invasion".

              Without one, there is no other. If you do not know the prehistory of the conflict, then it can be argued that Turkey is to blame for the Cyprus conflict. So the roots of the conflict lie not in Istanbul, but in Athens.
              If the EEZ belongs to the Republic of Cyprus, then who are the Turks living on the island? Citizens of Turkey or Cyprus?
              1. +2
                29 December 2020 13: 16
                Cypriots, citizens of the Republic of Cyprus. And Turkey brought in its military in 1974 to restore the previous constitutional order, which had been disrupted by the failed coup. But what the Turkish occupation troops are doing there after almost half a century has passed, that's a question. The number of Turkish troops in Cyprus is three times greater than the National Guard of the Republic of Cyprus, which, according to military theory and practice, indicates the aggressive intentions of the Turks and not in any way for defense.
                1. 0
                  29 December 2020 13: 40
                  So far, no one has thought of an attack in all these years. Turkey has large Armed Forces that are holding. But they don't attack.
                  Since 1960, Turkey has insisted on a federal structure for Cyprus, which was the most sensible solution supported by both the UK and the UN. But Greek Cypriots dream of "enosis".
                  I know perfectly well how the call for "miatsum" ended. If there is a part of the population that does not agree with this, war will become inevitable.
                  Economic interests are also controversial. For 25 years, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have not been able to determine the ownership of the Kapaz-Sardar field. And in Cyprus, everything is much more complicated and confusing.
                  Of course, Turkey has no right to carry out exploration and drilling work there. But until the status of Cyprus is determined (the fact that part of the island is recognized does not change the picture much), then there will be problems.
              2. +1
                29 December 2020 15: 21
                They are citizens of the Republic of Cyprus. But not like S. Cyprus, because such a state does not exist
                1. -1
                  29 December 2020 15: 35
                  Just like Abkhazia and South Ossetia ...
                  1. 0
                    29 December 2020 21: 04
                    Yes, there are no such states either. Like Transnistria or LDRN
      2. 0
        29 December 2020 09: 05
        The article directly states that this is a sovereign state, part of which is occupied by Turkey.
        1. 0
          29 December 2020 09: 12
          Yes, a sovereign state recognized by the world community. No Turkish part. But we all know that recognition or non-recognition is a purely representative function. You yourself can name several unrecognized states with which Russia has economic ties. Why can't Turkey do this?
          1. +3
            29 December 2020 13: 35
            First, the entire island is included in the EU. Only the occupied part of Cyprus is not yet subject to the rules set for EU members. And while Turkey does not allow the ships and civil aircraft of R. Cyprus to enter Turkish ports and airfields, there can be no question of any economic connection. Those. for Turkey, R. Cyprus does not exist at all, part of which it occupies, and this happened only in the Middle Ages, when international law and civilized norms did not exist.
            1. 0
              29 December 2020 13: 45
              A bit wrong. You do not view the situation from the Turkish position. And her position is quite justified and coincides with the position of the UN (Kofi Annan's plan). The problem is that Greek Cypriots don't want to accept it. They demand the withdrawal of Turkish troops and the complete subordination of the Turkish community to the Greeks. With quite definite intentions to join Greece. This is not acceptable for the Turkish community in Cyprus.
              Of course, this is not a complete copy of Karabakh, but it is very similar.
              1. +1
                29 December 2020 17: 34
                According to the Constitution of Cyprus in 1960, the President was a Greek, and the Vice-President of the Turks, in the Parliament the seats occupied were proportional to the population, as well as in the government. What kind of submission are you talking about?
                1. 0
                  30 December 2020 14: 23
                  Well spelled out in the Constitution. But the Greek junta overthrew the Greek President of Cyprus

                  On July 2, 1974, Makarios wrote an open letter to President Gizikis, in which he directly complained that “the cadres of the Greek military regime support and direct the activities of the terrorist organization EOKA-B”. He also ordered Greece to remove some 600 Greek Cypriot National Guard officers from Cyprus. The immediate response from the Greek government was to give the go-ahead for the coup. On July 15, 1974, units of the Cypriot National Guard, led by Greek officers, overthrew the government.

                  Turkish invasion of Cyprus - https://ru.qaz.wiki/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus

                  They cut each other, too, without remembering the Constitution.
                  1. +1
                    30 December 2020 17: 02
                    Those. it turns out that the Greek Cypriots, led by Makarios, did not want to be reunited with Greece and only the Greek junta undertook a coup for "enosis" and after this adventure, in the same month (July 1974), sunk into oblivion, and the Turkish occupation troops, for some reason delayed for half a century. Perhaps this is due to the neo-Ottoman claims of all Turkish authorities not only in Cyprus, but throughout the Mediterranean region and the Caucasus? And, finally, are the authors in some Western European publications and newspapers right when they draw parallels between the Nazi Fuhrer, the Italian Duce and the President of Turkey?
                    1. 0
                      30 December 2020 17: 42
                      Do not confuse the President of Turkey in 1974 and 2014. These are different types of wine. What kind of "neo-Ottomanism" could we talk about in 1974? And what the media is talking about is not an indicator of the truth. I don't like Erdogan at all, but comparing him with the Fuhrer or the Duce is a clear overkill.
                      President Makarios wanted an independent Cyprus. But there are always nationalists raving about joining. For which Makarios was almost killed by the Greeks. He had to flee to an English base.
                      There is no effect without a cause. The cause of the Cyprus crisis in the fascist regime in Athens and dreams of "enosis". As in Karabakh about "miatsum". Both slogans did not appear on the spot, but in Athens and Yerevan, respectively.
                      Yes, the Turkish troops stayed in Cyprus for a long time. But in 2004, it was the Greek Cypriots who thwarted the idea of ​​a unified federal Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots were mainly in favor of a united Cyprus.
                      There are nuances in any question. Istanbul is not against the withdrawal of its troops from Cyprus. But with certain guarantees. The UN is also committed to the idea of ​​two communities in a single Cyprus. But as it comes to implementation, then there are some requirements for guarantees. At both sides.
                      Despite this, I still believe that it is premature to talk about the Cyprus EEZ before determining the status. It (this zone) belongs to both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. Turkey should not be doing research there. As well as the Greeks, by the way.
                      1. +2
                        30 December 2020 19: 04
                        Firstly, Greece does not conduct any surveys, let alone drilling, on the Cyprus shelf and has never done so.
                        Secondly, the Cypriot government has created a fund that will receive all proceeds from gas fields and then distribute to the citizens of the entire island, regardless of their nationality and religion.
                        Third, the 2004 referendum did not provide for proportionality between communities depending on the number of citizens of each community, i.e. assumed 50% Greek community, 50% Turkish community, although there are three times more Greek Cypriots. Also, the issue with the Turks migrants from Anatolia was not resolved - what would be their status.And, finally, the timing of the withdrawal of Turkish troops was not determined - the Turkish side proposed from 5 to 10 years, which in turn laid a mine under the sovereignty of a single Cypriot state. Incl. in the plan proposed by the UN, the Turkish community was in a much more advantageous position, which was confirmed by the results of the referendum.
                        In 1974, neo-Ottomanism, indeed, was not spoken out loud, but since 2017 the most senior Turkish figures have been talking about it, starting with the President - "the borders of our heart in the vicinity of Vienna," so cutting the Russian ear for the "blue Motherland", Syria, Iraq, an expedition to Libya and finally Karabakh. Is this not the embodiment of Mîsâk-ı Millî in practice?
                      2. +1
                        30 December 2020 19: 17
                        Since 2017, it's not since 1974. There is no need to braid Karabakh. Karabakh is an Azerbaijani problem and it was solved by the Azerbaijani troops. Turkey was an ally but did not participate in the war.
                        Principles by Principles. But if the Turkish troops are withdrawn, who will guarantee the Turkish Cypriots? Do you know for sure that Greeks are white and fluffy?
                        As for the fund, will the funds from there go to the Turkish part of Cyprus? I doubt it very much.
                        Everyone wants to solve problems, but they don't want to address the root cause. In all honesty, if there were no coup in 1974, would there have been Turkish troops in Cyprus? It was from this that my participation in the discussion began. How did the Cyprus crisis begin? Greece first created a problem and is now trying to solve it. Yes, there are many Turkish immigrants there. And what does the Greek community of Cyprus offer? To evict them all?
                        And you are wrong about the "Annan plan" There is no 50/50. There is a proportional relationship

                        Create a single state in Cyprus, the United Cyprus Republic, consisting of two autonomous parts - Greek and Turkish, which would unite the entire island (with the exception of British military bases).
                        Creation of a presidium of six people, who take turns in the post of prime minister. Change of the presidency and vice president - every 10 months. The ratio of Greeks and Turks in the presidium is as follows: 4 Greeks and 2 Turks.
                        A decrease in the territory of the Turkish part of the island to 28,5% (against 37%, which is occupied by the TRNC), as well as the return of 85 thousand Greek refugees to their former places of residence (mainly in the area of ​​the city of Famagusta).

                        The Greek part is not tired of the general presence of Turks on the island.
                      3. +2
                        30 December 2020 22: 20
                        The fund is pan-Cypriot and of course the funds will go to all citizens. Of course, the Greeks are a very aggressive people, they invade with their armed forces in many neighboring countries, participate in hostilities in the civil war on the African continent, have military bases and expand them in different countries, were the main sponsors in the financial and logistical support of ISIS ( caliphate), use the former ISIS for their own purposes in the region, conduct pirate exploration of minerals on the shelf of other countries, declare their territorial claims to almost all neighboring countries, declare living space, just like the Nazi Fuhrer did, loudly , at the highest government level. They broadcast about the restoration of the former empire and, finally, they commit a dastardly act, shooting down a Russian plane. And these are all Greeks, in your opinion?
                        As for the Turkish landing in Cyprus, there is no need to retell Turkish fables about the lightning preparation of this operation in five days, i.e. from the moment of the coup to the moment of landing on the island. The scale of such an amphibious operation, by all military standards, requires from six months to a year. The Turks were ready for such actions since 1965 and only a shout from Washington (US President L. Johnson) stopped this venture. And the failed coup in 1974 was seen as an ideal pretext. Moreover, the Turks secured a promise from Kissinger (then the US Secretary of State) that the States would not allow Greece to use its Air Force and Navy in the conflict, which actually happened. the occupation of Cyprus is solely on the conscience of the Turks. Yes, and the statements of the Prime Minister of Turkey, when he was in power, that even if there were not a single Turk in Cyprus, we would have to invent him and make a landing on the island. There can be no more frank statement about the Cypriot tragedy and who initiated it. Well, the fault of the black colonels is that they provided this reason for the invasion, for which the Turks had been preparing and waiting for almost ten years.
                      4. +2
                        31 December 2020 14: 43
                        Everyone remained unconvinced. Again, you are citing facts from 2020 in relation to the events of 1974. It is not correct. Let's say how you would start comparing Germany in 1939 and 1980. Or Russia in 1981 (Brezhnev) and Russia in 2020 (Putin). The name is the same, but the countries are different.
                        I can repeat: you might think that Greeks are white and fluffy. Even now there are many Greek Cypriots who dream of joining Greece.
                        All conflicts are of a different nature. And I remain in my opinion that they should be resolved on the same basis. If there is a difference in the population of a country, then there must be a federation. And the rights of all minorities should be spelled out in the Constitution. But it is not enough for them to be registered. They must be respected. As stated in the main UN documents, "sovereignty is not a privilege, but a duty of the state." And if the rights of minorities are not respected, then the principle of inviolability of borders does not work. So in reality, there is no contradiction between the "right to self-determination" and the "inviolability of borders".
                        The events in Karabakh confirmed that a compromise must be found. Before the war, Armenians were offered political autonomy. Now the maximum they can claim is cultural autonomy.
                        Turkish Cypriots should have the right to autonomy within a single Cyprus. With political representation on a proportional basis. They agree with this. Greek Cypriots propose that migrants should not be counted. Then there will be practically no Turks on the island.
                        Turkey agrees to a phased withdrawal of troops. For five years to be sure of the rights of Turkish Cypriots. Greece demands the immediate withdrawal of troops and the deportation of all Turks who came to the island after 1974. Therefore, the issue is not being resolved. To be honest, I don't see what the Turkish version of the conflict resolution does not suit Greece. In the end, Russian troops remain in Karabakh for five years to observe the rights of Armenians.
  4. +3
    31 December 2020 14: 19
    Not everything is so simple. Yes, the Turkish army is numerically larger than the Greek, but it is armed, in the main, with old-fashioned products of its own production, Turkey does not have any significant weapons. In turn, Greece is capable of producing Leopard-2 tanks on its territory. The Greek fleet looks good, and the Greek aviation has achieved a number of victories in local battles with the Turks. Turkey was able to squeeze northern Cyprus only with the help of the United States, which then put pressure on Greece, because of which Greece even left NATO. Today, the United States will not defend the Turks, they have taken the position of the Greeks, Germany, France and Saudi Arabia are also anti-Turkish. So there is no chance for Turkey. If Turkey starts a war over Cyprus, most likely, it will get it in the ears, there is not Karabakh ...
  5. 0
    3 January 2021 19: 50
    So I think what we RUSSIA can profit from in this situation?