Great Britain is actually losing control of a strategically important strait


While the whole world is watching the showdown between the United States and China, as well as the internal political problems in the "hegemon" itself, the "British lion", which is ready to take its new place in the rapidly changing world, began to raise its head imperceptibly for many. Will London be able to "move" Washington and regain its former power?


At a superficial glance at this issue, it can cause only an ironic grin in the average person. Yes, the British Empire is long gone, and the United Kingdom no longer fully owns all the seas: its navy is significantly inferior in size and power to the US Navy, aircraft carriers are "leaking", etc. Despite this, London still has great potential for "imperial" revenge, which is expressed in the concept of "global Britain".

Thus, the empire was replaced by the British Commonwealth of Nations, which unites on a voluntary basis almost all former colonies and protectorates, including 53 countries with a combined population of 2,245 billion people. The total area occupied by the Commonwealth is almost a quarter of the earth's land area. The largest members of this association are India, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The latter, by the way, are traditionally considered allies of the United States. The word "British" was later removed politically correctly from the name of the Commonwealth of Nations, but the essence did not change. London is one of the leading financial capitals in the world. British elites have eaten more than one dog in global wars, trade, colonialism, intrigue, manipulation and betrayal. There is even an opinion that the "brain" of the United States is not in the White House, but in Foggy Albion, at least in the "back".

The essence of the concept of "global Britain" is that Pax America is ending due to the increasing role of China and other players. On the ruins of the unipolar world, it will be possible to build a new one, where there will be a place for the "British lion". The painful Brexit in this context plays into this idea, as the United Kingdom was forced to look too much at Germany and France and feed the "Young Europeans". In this case, the direct sequence policy The United States cost London dearly: relations with China and Iran seriously deteriorated. The alternative seems to be building new relationships with yesterday's allies. The US and the EU will continue to be important partners, and the UK will have to modernize its army, navy and nuclear arsenal. IN the economy London will have to create its own anti-Chinese coalition from India, Japan and Australia to block the One Belt and Road project. In the new global world order, the British are again going to become a “golden weight in the balance”, which will outweigh the balance of power in one direction or another.

However, these truly Napoleonic plans have their own Achilles heel. The fact is that on the road to its former greatness, the United Kingdom itself risks being completely disunited. Brexit spawned not only a revanchist concept, but also the strongest centrifugal forces. Scotland, Northern Ireland and almost without exception the population of Gibraltar voted against secession from the European Union. Recall that at the 2014 referendum on the withdrawal of Scotland from Great Britain, only 55,3% of those who came to the polling stations spoke out against independence, which does not attract the overwhelming majority. Now, when Brexit has turned out to be a rather expensive undertaking for the layman's pocket, the Scots want to hold a second plebiscite, but London refuses them, quite rightly fearing that this time the result will not be in his favor.

No less problems are maturing in Northern Ireland, which wants to remain in the European Union, as does the Republic of Ireland, neighboring with it. The demarcation between the two parts of the divided island could lead to a relapse into separatist sentiments among the local population. Therefore, at this stage, London had to make a compromise, and Northern Ireland will be legally part of the UK, but economically - to be a member of the EU. Because economics determines politics, such a special regime will only reinforce anti-British sentiment in this historically troubled region.

A separate issue is the status of Gibraltar. This small "Rock", taken by the British from the Spaniards several hundred years ago, locks the exit from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic, because its strategic importance can hardly be overestimated. The Gibraltarians do not want to return to Spain, which they convincingly demonstrated in the referendum. But they also do not want to leave the European Union together with Great Britain, where they have settled very well, thanks to their special status. The issue is so complex that it has been officially taken outside the scope of the Brexit negotiations and is still pending.

In all likelihood, Brussels will go through the "soft rejection" of Gibraltar from the United Kingdom without handing it over to Madrid. "Rock" will remain in the Schengen area, the border with Spain will be open, but the British arriving now will have to go through passport control. Tracking arriving planes and ships will no longer be carried out by British employees, but by a specially created EU border mission. By the way, now Gibraltar airport will be open to all other EU members, not just the United Kingdom, as it was before.

In other words, there is an erosion of London's sovereignty over Gibraltar, as well as real risks of an increase in separatist sentiments in Scotland and Northern Ireland. We must assume that in Brussels, too, there are not stupid people sitting, who simply cannot like the idea of ​​a "global Britain". They will definitely not cause delight in Berlin and Paris. This means that Europe, as far as possible, will torpedo such revanchist neo-imperial concepts in order to prevent the United Kingdom from strengthening beyond measure at the expense of the Old World. Not only the British are able to play these geopolitical games.
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 27 December 2020 17: 29
    +1
    I completely agree with the author!
  2. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 27 December 2020 17: 54
    +4
    If the World Bank just wanted to become a new financial center (purely providing its territory, infrastructure, personnel, communications, etc.) and receive some reasonable preferences for this, it would most likely work out.
    But WB is haunted by imperial phantom pains. I would also like to have my own currency zone. And they are unlikely to succeed.
    There are three and a half powers of the first rank in the world: the USA, China, the Russian Federation and India. India doesn't really claim anything beyond its borders. First of all, due to the special mentality and structure of society. At the same time, India is a self-sufficient currency area. And the WB has nothing to do with it.
    And building a zone from the Commonwealth is unlikely to succeed. Everything is too scattered. The WB has other scenarios for constructing the zone. But they are also unlikely to come true.
    When people talk about building a zone, they usually mean, first of all, the presence of 400 million to 600 million people, a certain set of technologies and natural resources. And no matter how the WB combined, it is not very successful to create a compact zone. In all variants there are inconsistencies.
    But there is another (most important) sign of the self-sufficiency of a currency zone of influence: it is the ability of the zone leader to ensure the inviolability and legitimacy of property within the borders of his zone.
    That is, China has acquired property all over the world, but will it be able to protect the property of its state and its companies in Latin America, Europe, Africa? Of course not. Either they nationalize or (as the late Livshits bequeathed) they make it clear that "we must share." China does not have enough PLA capabilities. Just because of the limited set of weapons. Plus, no one (including the PLA command) knows how the PLA will fight. Presumably, it sucks she will fight. There are no traditions. No fighting spirit, no experience. They were going to drive an aircraft carrier to Syria in order to somehow indicate support for Russia, but somehow it did not work out. And everyone noticed. It was also noted that Russia supported China with joint air patrols. This did not add a rating to China.
    The United States will definitely be able to fulfill this task within its zone. But beyond its borders - there will be problems. And the further, the more.
    The WB does not have such opportunities, from the word "absolutely".
    They didn’t agree to less. Moreover, they began to behave arrogantly, demanding their zone. As a result, they will not receive either one or the other. They will become what they are already becoming: a third-level power. And if they fall apart (and it looks like they will fall apart), then in general they will become a small appanage provincial principality.
    1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 27 December 2020 18: 17
      -4
      Does the Russian Federation have its own "currency zone"? And the Russian Federation can defend

      property of their state and their companies in Latin America, Europe, Africa

      Judging by Deripasko, property is difficult to defend even in the Russian Federation. And the population is 140 million.
      1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 1 January 2021 16: 18
        0
        And what is Deripasko? )))
  3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 27 December 2020 21: 35
    +1
    With the collapse of the USSR, the era created after the Second World War ended. Further, the latest perturbations take place according to new, with changing statuses of states, associations and structures, the political map of the world is created according to new actors ... other immigrants, and there is no such executive material for action, and becoming, like in the Middle Ages, a Venetian influential center will not work for many reasons ... The future is doubtful for England ...