How Russia can destroy the NATO coalition in the Black Sea

After the collapse of the USSR and the forced partition of the Black Sea Fleet with Ukraine, Russia for many years lost its status as the leading naval force in the region. There was a period when one Turkish fleet was several times stronger than the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Everything has changed in the last decade, especially after the return of Crimea to the Russian Federation. Western analysts are now re-calculating the scenarios of a possible "sea battle", and the results are not encouraging.

The respected Western edition of Forbes, usually associated with publications about the lives of the richest people on the planet, has recently taken up "hype" related to war topics, such as the transfer of American MLRS to Romania, and now it has begun to calculate scenarios of NATO's war with Russia in the Black Sea with the help of analysts from the American agency RAND, which is considered to be a private "branch" of the CIA. They conducted a training "war game", and its results were curious.

Today Russia possesses a rather powerful Black Sea Fleet, headed by its flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, which has undergone deep modernization. Its striking base is made up of three "admirals" - frigates "Admiral Grigorovich", "Admiral Essen" and "Admiral Makarov", equipped with cruise missiles "Caliber", patrol ships "Pytlivy" and "Ladny", corvette "Zealous", small missile ships "Bora" and "Samum", "Vyshny Volochok", "Orekhovo-Zuevo" and "Ingushetia". Replenishment from the RTOs of the "Karakurt" project "Cyclone", "Askold" and "Amur" is expected. There are also six small anti-submarine ships of project 1124 M "Albatros / -M" and five missile boats of project 1241 "Molniya-1". In the ranks of the Russian Black Sea Fleet there are seven large landing ships, six low-noise diesel-electric submarines of project 636.3 "Varshavyanka" and one outdated "Alrosa". In addition, there are combat aviation, air defense and electronic warfare systems, coastal missile and artillery systems in Crimea.

It is a force to be reckoned with. Traditionally, the United States always counts on building an international coalition where it can stand behind its junior partners, helping them as needed. On the Black Sea, these are NATO countries: Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, as well as Ukraine and Georgia aspiring to the alliance. But according to RAND's calculations, things may not turn out in the best way for them. The war game conducted was from 2020 to 2025. By this time, Moldova has already been absorbed by Romania, Georgia and Ukraine are still enemies for Russia. But the Black Sea alliance is not monolithic. Neither Tbilisi nor Kiev de facto have a military fleet, and they will not be able to create one in the next five years. The navies of Bulgaria and Romania are also not impressive. The only real power in the region is Turkey, but everything is complicated with her.

The Turkish Turkish Navy is represented by four Yavuz-class frigates, four Barbaross-class frigates, eight former American G-class frigates, six URO corvettes (former French B-type ships) and four Milgem-class corvettes of their own construction. The underwater component includes six Atylai-class submarines, four Prevese-class submarines and four Gyur-class submarines. At the same time, significant forces can be involved in other theaters: in Libya, near the disputed Greek islands, etc. If you exclude the Turks from the alliance, then a real coalition does not form. But how to do that?

RAND analysts believe that Moscow can bribe Ankara with deep cooperation in Syria, and Bulgaria - with gas discounts. The Kremlin can threaten Georgia with military exercises in Abkhazia and North Ossetia, Ukraine - by blocking the Kerch Strait for it. Romania can become a victim of some kind of information war. The agency came to the following conclusion:

Russian incentives, especially the promise to continue and expand cooperation in Syria, as well as potential losses due to the refusal of existing cooperation, made the Turks seriously think about the advisability of supporting the NATO group. Bilateral actions of the Turkish and Bulgarian teams on rapprochement with Russia are already bad.

The conclusion turned out to be somewhat discouraging, since it turned out easier for Moscow to destroy the anti-Russian alliance in the Black Sea by non-military means than to fight it.
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  1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 16 December 2020 17: 43
    Normal article, thanks to the author!
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 December 2020 17: 57
    What is such an alliance?
    Turks are our partners. she nafig does not need other people's ships at hand.
    Everyone has been laughing at Ukraine for 6 years.
    NATO enters the World Cup one ship at a time.

    And with whom can Moscow fight at the World Cup?
    1. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 18 December 2020 16: 38
      That's right! A half-eaten 50, if you really are from there, unlike a zazhratiy 77, it won't say badly! Gee-gee-gee ...
  3. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
    ODRAP (Alexey) 16 December 2020 18: 57
    There is no reference to the source, the conclusions are far-fetched.
    I'm sorry.
    Bulgaria has ALREADY squeezed out the discount on gas from Gazprom, and in the case of DB with the Russian Federation, it will receive it from AZ, even cheaper.
    Turkey, in the event of a war, will return Idlib to its native harbor, and will simply strangle the local grouping. It won't even fight, it will just close the Straits. "In the area of ​​foot and mouth disease!" (C) And neither Israel nor Greece, will not fight in Middle-earth. And there is no one else.
    But, it will easily miss NATO ships.
    As for the fleet, let me remind you modestly, the capabilities of the Wehrmacht. He had no ships, there were troughs.
    The main game was played by Auntie Yu.
    And now, no one bothers NATO aviation to fly a little over Pontus Euxin ...
    Takshta, not everything is so simple (s)
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 17 December 2020 08: 29
      Quote: ODRAP
      There is no reference to the source, the conclusions are far-fetched.
      I'm sorry.

      These are not my conclusions, but RAND. Source Forbes. look for a translation or translate yourself.
      1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
        ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 13: 49
        If you refer to rand, then you have read it. It is accepted to give a link to the material. If there is no link, then you haven't read it ...
        Nobody is interested in shoveling all the materials to check your words.
        So far, it looks like "I have not read, but I condemn."
  4. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 December 2020 21: 55
    As always, one factor is taken, excluding all others. Are combat operations of a separate type of the Armed Forces possible in a separate theater of operations? The scenario assumes open hostilities between Ukraine and Georgia against the Russian Federation. Do you need to predict the result? Fleets of Romania and Bulgaria are not even included in the article. Apparently due to their enormous fighting efficiency. I won't say anything about Bulgaria, but for Romania the result will be even worse than for everyone else. Turkey. How can Turkey benefit from the hostilities with the Russian Federation? Territories? Turning the Black Sea into your own body of water? I think that in this situation, no one will swim in the Black Sea at all.
    Revered, practiced wit forgot. The RAND Corporation probably got some good money for its "research".
    1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
      ODRAP (Alexey) 16 December 2020 22: 36
      Oh, do you understand Turkey too?
      Deep Scan.
      That way, through the lip.
      It would be better to calculate the result of your butting with the Russian Federation. So, just in case.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 December 2020 22: 39
        Do not worry. I understand a lot. But I haven’t heard anything about "butting with the RF" yet.
        1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
          ODRAP (Alexey) 16 December 2020 22: 40
          Well, until 08 and 14, they didn't hear either.
          You have everything ahead.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 December 2020 22: 43
            I just heard and wrote about it. You are just here recently. I already appreciated your sarcasm .. Not interested.
            1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
              ODRAP (Alexey) 16 December 2020 22: 45
              I have been reading for a long time, writing recently.
              To paraphrase Heinlein, "There is a border, there will be war."
              1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 December 2020 22: 46
                We even read science fiction .... All the same, you are not interesting.
                1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                  ODRAP (Alexey) 16 December 2020 22: 52
                  At the age of six, he came to the library and demanded Belyaev.
                  Then, my aunts gave me this book. repeat
                  It was 1969.
                  So I'm not stuffing myself.
                  But, due to life experience, incl. military, I will troll slegonts.
                  For, sometimes you bury yourself. Here, in the post above, you spoke contemptuously about the combat capabilities of the armies of the two countries. Surprisingly, they didn't call them subhuman.
                  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 16 December 2020 23: 08
                    You don't read Soviet literature.
                    Anyway. I am not contemptuous of anyone. Even more so for the army. But the Georgian army already has experience. Ukrainian too. If they have changed in recent years (which I don’t believe), then the Russian one did not stand still. In case of hostilities from Georgia, Russian tanks will be in Tbilisi. Therefore, Georgia will not fit into this Black Sea adventure. If Ukraine decides to exercise its "sea muscles" on the Black Sea, it will get what Russia gave up in 2014. That is, New Russia.
                    This is my prediction. But I don't think there will be people who want to test it in practice.
                    As for the "military experience" I can repeat. Business military to shoot. Thinking is not their forte. Yes, they may well be experts in their field. But not in politics.

                    Returning to the article. One component taken. Marine and excluding all other factors. So you need to read the article, take into account that in the West, different institutions are excellent at sawing money and putting it in the back box. There is nothing to discuss here.
                    1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                      ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 13: 12
                      I read why.
                      The forecast, frankly, is lousy.
                      That the Georgian, that the Ukrainian army, you know from the publications of authors like Neukropny.
                      And the scripts of the beginning of the database, based on the broadcasts of nightingale droppings. It was he who, in a broken stand under a kippah, could have the idea that Ukraine is going to "play with sea muscles." Even here, it is clearly described that the Naval Forces have a strictly defensive doctrine.
                      And you all dream that everybody is about to climb onto Rossiyushka, in turn. Capture the innumerable deposits of oil, in Siberian ridges, and wooden closets.
                      Is it really not clear that none of the neighbors open their mouths to the territory of the Russian Federation? Well, no, aggressive plans of conquest ... Maybe China, but that's far away.
                      Therefore, all your predictions are not worth the shell.
                      And, I will add. I just try to take into account all the components. And this is the job (diagnostician), and I have to do with Long-Range Aviation. The Russian Federation does not have naval aviation. Scraps. I take this into account, others do not. The submarine, in Pontus, can be ignored, the aircraft will catch the boats like sprat in an empty can.
                      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 December 2020 13: 31
                        Even here, it is clearly described that the Naval Forces have a strictly defensive doctrine.

                        This is not spelled out in this article. Quite different is written:

                        Neither Tbilisi nor Kiev de facto have a military fleet, and they will not be able to create one in the next five years.

                        Let's go further on the "defensive doctrine. If you read the" naval doctrine of Ukraine until 2035, you will see that it is not entirely "defensive". So your comment is "not worth the shell".

                        As for aviation, I already doubt that you know and understand anything in military affairs. Which aircraft will catch the submarine? And why do we need Long-Range Aviation on the Black Sea?
                        Do you just like to write? Didn't you learn to read? I repeat especially for you:

                        in the West, different institutions are excellent at sawing money and putting it in the back box. There is nothing to discuss here.
                      2. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                        ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 14: 06
                        How everything started ...))
                        The article lists the ship composition of the Ukrainian Navy. How many attack submarines, NKs, torpedo bombers and missile carriers are there?
                        You don't need to be a sailor to understand defensive missions for a mosquito fleet.
                        Reading diagonally without thinking about the meaning?
                        I read the Doctrine. I did not find there, neither preventive strikes on foreign territory, nor the seizure of foreign ports, nor the landing of amphibious assault forces in the Kuban ... do not be lazy, present points about aggression. Oh, damn it, the offensive on Moscow and Novosibirsk! repeat
                        Doubt, your right. So far, you are tasked with absolutely "shpatsky" questions. What kind of aviation? The one that regularly flies with ab Sigonella, for example. Or the one that will instantly land on the north west coast. Name the models?
                        In aviation, you do not understand at all. The fact that I served in YES is not important now, everything is called differently. There was just an example.
                        Tell me, a drone, a scout from a base in Italy, is it far or near? His tasks, do you understand / no? What is RTR and CU, chew?
                        You just don't know what the current aviation is capable of.
                        You have not been informed that it is she who is driving in the Black Sea theater now. And in the Russian Federation, this component is extremely weak, that is shock, that is polished ...
                        How is Khayyam:

                        Shine a candle over the blind man's head,
                        In vain effort
                        Endless wisdom ...

                        Continue on your own. wink
                      3. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 December 2020 14: 15
                        You have not read the article. It can be seen from the comment. Aviation. Weak component? A mixed air division is deployed there, plus an air defense division, and jump airfields for strategic aviation are prepared. Plus coastal missile systems. And who will swim and fly in the Black Sea completely free? At the same time and look for submarines there?
                        Have you read naval doctrine? If you read it, you did not understand. By the way, which country has an "aggressive" doctrine? In the Ukrainian maritime freedom of navigation is spelled out in the Black and Azov seas and in the Kerch Strait. How did this shipping in the Kerch Strait end? So the Ukrainian Navy is entrusted with the task of PROVIDING this most free shipping and economic interests of Ukraine. Including Crimea and the Sea of ​​Azov. How are you going to provide it?
                        Really useless.
                      4. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                        ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 14: 48
                        I read it, of course.
                        Explain Mixed Air Division, is a white Negro.
                        This is such a euphemism for people far away.
                        On a full-fledged one, there are no planes, so they pull everything together. Wild problems. With logistics, supply, placement, coordination, interaction.
                        There, the tasks of aviation, only air defense and transport. ALL.
                        About air defense ... Well, maybe you heard about the problems with Russian iron, there, not far, literally the other day ... laughing
                        So, in the Crimea, this gland will be given bream not even TV2 at all. Than, I will not say, there are options. But the fact that ALL objects, mene-tekelfares, do not doubt. I am so confident because I have practice. Our regiment went on reconnaissance in the south-west sector, Turkey-West Germany. RTR and photo.
                        Having such information, there is no need for zipizhs, the rocket flies across the map in memory. And the launcher recognizes the chassis license plates. bully
                        There, everything is filmed and recorded ... You have no idea. Between us, they let me listen to the tape. Conversation of a member of the pevoshny calculation, on a mobile phone, with a friend. With topographic location, and phone model. Bayraktar is not flying there, do you understand?
                        Take it out at a time, all this, even boring. They will overload in a salvo, make a hole, and the next wave will be redirected there, and it will take everything.
                        You, forgive me, are just getting closer to understanding. You, sold not the newest ...
                        Victory in NK, this is serious, I do not underestimate, but for NATO, fuss in the sandbox.
                        Oh yes. Overlapping Kerch, will end badly. Freedom of navigation is what the big uncles will tear the lover for. European ports will be closed, even without sanctions, and Russian trade will collapse in three months ...
                        Okay, I went to catch bullfinches for lunch. laughing
                      5. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 December 2020 14: 56
                        Again, some personal feelings. A mixed division is not as bad as you might imagine. And it is created out of necessity. If it is so easy to break through air defenses at the front line, then probably it is also easy to break through in Kaliningrad. These are two fortified areas brought forward. Try it. No one willing to check has been found yet.
                        Freedom of navigation in the Kerch Strait is ensured by the Russian authorities. And nobody "broke" anyone for that. Again, some incomprehensible fantasies. But Ukraine wants to provide this very shipping with the help of its Navy. Excuse me, how exactly? I told you and everyone knows that there was such an experience. The result is known. And you claim that this is a "defensive doctrine." We have different concepts of the word "defense".
                      6. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                        ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 15: 03
                        Personal experience. Long-term, with specialized education. And, well, yes, sensations, of course ... wink
                        I, the mixed division, represent VERY well. I know because.
                        That is why our regiment was separate, we were subordinate not to the District, but to the 40th Army, and that directly to the General Staff.
                        The reasons for the decision, to explain?
                        Not easy, but why?
                        Koenigsberg exclave, no one is going to attack
                      7. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 December 2020 15: 11
                        A general note to end this useless discussion. There is one more study about Kaliningrad today.
                        How tired of narrow specialists. As Kozma Prutkov said, "a specialist is like a gumboil. Its completeness is one-sided."
                        So. Border conditions. An attack on the Crimea, Kaliningrad, on damn little kulichi means a full-scale war against the STATE of the Russian Federation. Who of the nearest neighbors will participate, will receive the Reichstag. Therefore, neither Ukraine nor Georgia will participate in this. Turkey will not participate for the simple reason that it does not need it at all. Limitrophs of Europe and the Baltics may be on fire with fierce desire. But Romania and Poland will immediately receive a blow to the ABM bases. It is written everywhere. "Decision-making centers" will be hit depending on the situation. But this is already a full-scale war. The whole idea of ​​such "research" is to develop options limited war in the local theater... This would suit the old NATO members and the United States. The problem is that this is not possible. Always and at all times the military is planning fleeting local wars. This results in a full-scale carnage.
                        Therefore, for the stubborn, I repeat. They read it, took note of it and left it in a long box. I cut the dough for "research". Nothing more. Empty sound.
                      8. Bakht Offline Bakht
                        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 17 December 2020 15: 13
                        Supplement for specialists. When making political decisions, performance characteristics, number and other specifics is not critical.
                      9. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
                        ODRAP (Alexey) 17 December 2020 15: 14
                        Attack on Crimea? belay
                        We close the topic. It never came to you.
                        I didn't read it, I went to catch bullfinches for lunch, otherwise I won't get it
  • cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 17 December 2020 07: 34
    The key word is maybe. Not with our current fearful and infantile leadership ..
  • Praskovya Offline Praskovya
    Praskovya (Praskovya) 16 January 2021 13: 17
    Let's remove the Western henchmen from power, put the people in power and win.
  • Valery Valeriev Offline Valery Valeriev
    Valery Valeriev (Valery Valeriev) 21 January 2021 02: 40
    Of course the author is not the chief of the gene. headquarters of Russia may well be wrong. However, he built his conclusions on the analysis carried out by the West. specialist. services. There, too, are not geniuses, but they know more than the Internet riffraff. You can believe it, you can not believe it, but normal commanders will think.