Possible war with China called a disaster for the United States


Recently, relations between Beijing and Taipei (Taiwan) have worsened greatly. Many experts have started talking about the proximity of the war in the Taiwan Strait. China has long claimed the island of Taiwan, considering it its integral part, writes the American magazine The American Conservative.


In the summer and fall of 2020, ordinary Americans were little interested in problems in the other hemisphere of the planet. But now they have learned with interest from the Taiwan media that for the first time in 40 years, US military personnel have arrived on the disputed island to conduct joint exercises with the local military. The Pentagon was quick to deny this information, but the sparks associated with this could portend a real possibility of a military clash between China and the United States over Taiwan.

There is a possibility that the conflict will begin in the coming months. But allowing Washington, in a somnambulistic state (related to elections), to be drawn into a major military conflict with China would be a landmark failure for US diplomacy. Moreover, for three main reasons at once: military, historical and strategic.

The likelihood that China will conquer Taiwan in just two weeks is extremely high. The island is located just 90 km from the coast of China and 6 thousand km from the United States. Therefore, Beijing can use just colossal forces. As a result, the American contingent will be destroyed. The Chinese will attack the island with all their firepower and the war will end. They spent decades practicing the landing in Taiwan. Now Beijing has a fleet, aircraft, MLRS and a huge number of other weapons.

Some experts believe that all US forces, including nuclear weapons, need to be deployed to save Taiwan. It would work against the poor of the Philippines, but we are talking about China - a rising superpower with large resources and a reliable rear.

In addition, there are a number of objective reasons for canceling the 1955 Treaty of Alliance with Taiwan. Taiwan officially became part of the Chinese province of Fujian back in 1684, i.e. a century before the American Revolution. But in the period 1895-1945 he was under the occupation of Japan and fought against China.

In 1950, US President Harry Truman announced that Washington had no "predatory plans for Formosa (Taiwan) or any other Chinese territory." True, after that, Taiwan successfully turned into a US protectorate. But after the Vietnam War, Washington was smart enough to remove all of its nuclear weapons from Taiwan. Therefore, the return of the US military to Taiwan will be a return to the Cold War.

Taiwan still calls itself the Republic of China and US intervention will lead the Americans to become involved in the Chinese civil war. In 1949, supporters of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and monarchists who fought the communists hid on the island.

US intervention would be a disaster for Washington, draining the American coffers and creating a lot of problems. China is not an aggressive country. Beijing has not resorted to large-scale use of force in over 40 years. He created only one foreign military base. If it comes to war with China, Taiwan will be a bad position for the United States, the newspaper concluded.
13 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 15 December 2020 17: 49
    -5
    China's war with the United States will be a disaster for the entire world.
    1. Dear sofa expert. 15 December 2020 19: 53
      +3
      The war between China and the United States will be a disaster for the whole world.

      Yes, let them beat each other, what kind of sadness are you?
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 15 December 2020 20: 18
        -1
        Yes, you know, I want to spend my old age not in conditions of an economic crisis worse than the 90s. And if the two largest economies in the world begin to beat each other, it will not seem enough for everyone. Resource exporters will be the first and most affected.
        In addition, I have children, I would like them to live in normal conditions. I remember how radioactive fallout fell out in St. Petersburg in 86 after the Chernobyl disaster. If nuclear charges begin to explode in China and the United States, it will reach everyone.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 15 December 2020 21: 08
          +2
          If nuclear charges begin to explode in China and the United States

          What are nuclear charges? Because of Taiwan?
          Do not exaggerate. They will fight at sea at most. Amers will be pushed over the head, a couple of ships will be sunk, and they will sail back to their island.
      2. Pandiurin Offline Pandiurin
        Pandiurin (Pandiurin) 15 December 2020 21: 10
        0
        Quote: Dear couch expert.
        The war between China and the United States will be a disaster for the whole world.

        Yes, let them beat each other, what kind of sadness are you?

        How many Chinese refugees are you willing to accommodate in your living space?

        I certainly do not think that Russia will organize a green street for them to relocate.
        But the latest conflicts (Syria, Libya ...) show that even the Mediterranean Sea does not stop them. And we have a land border with China.
        What do you suggest to put machine guns - flamethrowers.

        Probably such a mess in the neighboring country / countries (there is also India and Pakistan can mess up) is not at all in our interests.
        1. Dear sofa expert. 15 December 2020 21: 16
          +3
          How many Chinese refugees are you willing to accommodate in your living space?

          The same number as Vietnamese in due time. Zero.
          What are refugees? What is the land border? What are you talking about?
          It is not enough for the Americans to assemble a group sufficient for a war with Iran! What kind of China are we talking about here?
        2. 123 Offline 123
          123 (123) 16 December 2020 15: 06
          +2
          How many Chinese refugees are you willing to accommodate in your living space?
          I certainly do not think that Russia will organize a green street for them to relocate.
          But the latest conflicts (Syria, Libya ...) show that even the Mediterranean Sea does not stop them. And we have a land border with China.
          What do you suggest to put machine guns - flamethrowers.

          A green street for resettlement in Europe can be easily organized. Erdogan does it well.
          Our land border is more difficult to overcome than the Mediterranean Sea, fortified areas have been preserved there, and most likely the nuclear bombs have not been removed either. Count the number of bridges across the Amur .... Most of the traffic is still across the sea.

          Probably such a mess in the neighboring country / countries (there is also India and Pakistan can mess up) is not at all in our interests.

          Tellingly, our "partners" adhere to a different point of view and are not averse to organizing some kind of "mess" for us.
    2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
      Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 15 December 2020 20: 27
      -1
      Disaster in the sense
    3. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 16 December 2020 18: 30
      0
      Norm., Let the yellow amers put in place.
  2. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 15 December 2020 21: 26
    +2
    China's military philosophy goes back to Sun Tzu who said:

    He knows how to fight who wins without a fight.
    He knows how to fight who captures fortresses without a siege.
    The one who crushes the state without an army knows how to fight.

    In the event of a hypothetical PLA landing on Taiwan, the United States will act with someone else's hands, which does not give the PRC a pretext for military opposition to the United States.

    Japan is much closer geographically, possesses modern types of weapons and industrial potential capable of rapidly building up its military power and creating new ones, including nuclear.

    Britain is the most faithful satrap, in fact the 51st state of the United States and a member of NATO, whose area of ​​activity has long gone beyond the originally designated border of the northern tropic.

    India is a member of the British Commonwealth, has territorial disputes with the PRC and has enormous human resources, you just need to push it in the right direction.

    There are enough options to avoid a direct clash with China and escalate into a full-scale nuclear war.

    The US fleet is blocking the PRC from the sea, its presence diverts forces and resources, paralyzes foreign economic relations and the flow of raw materials.

    Will wear down the economy of the PRC, and the decline in living standards leads to social discontent and a coup d'etat - the decommunization of the PRC.

    Whether the game is worth the candle is up to the Pentagon to decide, the PRC is not the island of Grenada.

    Xi Jiping clearly outlined the position of the PRC regarding territorial disputes -

    We will not give up an inch of the land of our ancestors, but we do not need a piece of someone else's.

    - and the statement of the PRC Foreign Ministry regarding the threat of a trade war with the United States -

    We do not want, but we are not afraid of a trade war either.

    - can be fully attributed to any other.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 16 December 2020 13: 39
      +2
      The US fleet is blocking the PRC from the sea, its presence diverts forces and resources, paralyzes foreign economic relations and the flow of raw materials.
      - The US fleet from the sea is calmly liquidated by PRC hyper-missiles. Raw materials supplies from Russia are unlimited. Chinese refugees in small groups, 1 million people each. move to California.
  3. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
    ODRAP (Alexey) 15 December 2020 23: 01
    -4
    I missed something, and China is preparing a landing party for the assault on Washington?
    A hot war with the United States for China is not a shot in the leg. This is a machine-gun burst, in the place where the legs grow ...
    Three-quarters of the industry could be closed immediately, and half of the population could be euthanized so that they would not die of hunger.
  4. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 16 December 2020 18: 21
    0
    If this war begins - Khan America, with a probability of 101%