Following Israel, the United States is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, fearing retaliation from Iran for the assassination of leading nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. As they say, every cat knows whose sour cream she ate. This is, of course, a joke, but seriously, will there be a retaliatory strike from Tehran on the United States and its allies in the region?
A few days ago we toldand what precautions Israel is taking to avoid retaliation from Iran. The Americans, who have cut by half the number of their personnel in Iraq, where the US embassy may become one of the targets, are also being insured in advance. By analogy with the events following the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the Pentagon quite rightly fears a missile attack on the diplomatic mission building. According to intelligence, pro-Iranian armed formations have become more active in Iraq, and they can strike. Washington dispatched a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier and an additional squadron of fighters to the Middle East, as well as a demonstrative non-stop flight of a B-52 strategic bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Thus, the Pentagon intends to prevent Iran from delivering another retaliation strike:
There is no action plan here, there is a plan to portray a strong defensive position that could stop a potential adversary.
But is it really?
On the one hand, Tehran needs a demonstrative retaliatory action in order not to lose face. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is just one of the victims of the consistent and relentless shooting of Iranian nuclear workers by foreign special services. You cannot forgive such things, as this will be interpreted as a manifestation of weakness. On the other hand, Iran is now not in the best condition for a real war, which could begin after a rocket attack on Haifa or the US embassy in Baghdad. Him economy undermined by restrictive measures on oil sales abroad, as well as the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The budget suffers from a deficit, the national currency has fallen. The fighting will raise patriotic sentiments for a period, but will quickly drain the Iranian economy. The bottom line is that the maximum that Tehran is capable of today without unacceptable harm to itself is to carry out a special operation against the Israelis involved in the murder of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and deliver a targeted strike in Iraq at the Americans through its "proxies".
Tel Aviv and Washington cannot but understand this, but the United States is increasing the degree of military tension in the region. The question is, why? Among domestic "experts" there is an opinion that, they say, it is President Trump who can finally start a war with Iran in order to spoil Joe Biden. The statement is rather controversial, because the Islamic Republic, despite all the existing economic problems, is a pretty tough nut to crack militarily, and aggression against it will have to pay dearly. It is believed that President Trump, if he nevertheless yields to Biden in the struggle for the Oval Office, may try to go to the polls again in four years, but it will not be easy to do so with the political baggage of a man who started a regional war with a mass of American casualties. His numerous opponents will not let him forget this either.
Much more likely is an attempt to create a new configuration in the Middle East for the return of Democrats to the White House. It was they who were the authors of the Iranian "nuclear deal", because under Biden there are chances for its return. In what form is determined right now.