Why a US war with Iran is unlikely


Following Israel, the United States is increasing its military presence in the Middle East, fearing retaliation from Iran for the assassination of leading nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. As they say, every cat knows whose sour cream she ate. This is, of course, a joke, but seriously, will there be a retaliatory strike from Tehran on the United States and its allies in the region?


A few days ago we toldand what precautions Israel is taking to avoid retaliation from Iran. The Americans, who have cut by half the number of their personnel in Iraq, where the US embassy may become one of the targets, are also being insured in advance. By analogy with the events following the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the Pentagon quite rightly fears a missile attack on the diplomatic mission building. According to intelligence, pro-Iranian armed formations have become more active in Iraq, and they can strike. Washington dispatched a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier and an additional squadron of fighters to the Middle East, as well as a demonstrative non-stop flight of a B-52 strategic bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Thus, the Pentagon intends to prevent Iran from delivering another retaliation strike:

There is no action plan here, there is a plan to portray a strong defensive position that could stop a potential adversary.

But is it really?

On the one hand, Tehran needs a demonstrative retaliatory action in order not to lose face. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is just one of the victims of the consistent and relentless shooting of Iranian nuclear workers by foreign special services. You cannot forgive such things, as this will be interpreted as a manifestation of weakness. On the other hand, Iran is now not in the best condition for a real war, which could begin after a rocket attack on Haifa or the US embassy in Baghdad. Him economy undermined by restrictive measures on oil sales abroad, as well as the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The budget suffers from a deficit, the national currency has fallen. The fighting will raise patriotic sentiments for a period, but will quickly drain the Iranian economy. The bottom line is that the maximum that Tehran is capable of today without unacceptable harm to itself is to carry out a special operation against the Israelis involved in the murder of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and deliver a targeted strike in Iraq at the Americans through its "proxies".

Tel Aviv and Washington cannot but understand this, but the United States is increasing the degree of military tension in the region. The question is, why? Among domestic "experts" there is an opinion that, they say, it is President Trump who can finally start a war with Iran in order to spoil Joe Biden. The statement is rather controversial, because the Islamic Republic, despite all the existing economic problems, is a pretty tough nut to crack militarily, and aggression against it will have to pay dearly. It is believed that President Trump, if he nevertheless yields to Biden in the struggle for the Oval Office, may try to go to the polls again in four years, but it will not be easy to do so with the political baggage of a man who started a regional war with a mass of American casualties. His numerous opponents will not let him forget this either.

Much more likely is an attempt to create a new configuration in the Middle East for the return of Democrats to the White House. It was they who were the authors of the Iranian "nuclear deal", because under Biden there are chances for its return. In what form is determined right now.
Ad
We are open to cooperation with authors in the news and analytical departments. A prerequisite is the ability to quickly analyze the text and check the facts, to write concisely and interestingly on political and economic topics. We offer flexible working hours and regular payments. Please send your responses with examples of work to [email protected]
12 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 12 December 2020 14: 28
    0
    I already wrote here three times, there will be no war. No. Americans are inherently cowardly. The only thing they can do well is scare. They will catch up with all their cavalry and all their army and begin to sing in all controlled media that everything is war, that's how they put pressure on the psyche of the frightened one (who needs to be scared). And if they are not scared, they are terribly offended and leave worried. lol For example, it was recently with North Korea. The Koreans told them directly to leave here, we have no time for you, we have a lot of problems without you. laughing
    1. Binder Offline Binder
      Binder (Miron) 12 December 2020 16: 45
      -1
      Quote: Athenogen
      Americans are inherently cowardly

      I would like to ask, who do you think are the heroes who know no fear?

      Quote: Athenogen
      if they are not afraid, they are terribly offended and leave worried.

      They leave after solving the assigned tasks, ask the hanged Saddam Hussein - he can confirm.

      Quote: Athenogen
      Koreans told them straight away, go away,

      The main Korean belly has his tail between his legs and is sitting in Pyongyang, not chirping.
      1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
        Afinogen (Afinogen) 12 December 2020 18: 14
        0
        Quote: Bindyuzhnik
        The main Korean belly has his tail between his legs and is sitting in Pyongyang, not chirping.

        What do you mean does not tweet ??? Did he make concessions when two aircraft carriers with ships were brought to Korea? The main condition amerikosov was the destruction of nuclear weapons, he destroyed them? In my opinion, Korea did not go to any demands of the Americans and the Americans with their squadron went back. It also seemed that they were about to attack, everyone waited, but the Americans decided not to tempt fate. And this time the Americans will not attack Iran, because they still need courage to use numerous weapons, and the Americans have only cowardice and meanness.
        1. Binder Offline Binder
          Binder (Miron) 12 December 2020 21: 05
          -4
          There is no point in fighting North Korea - its inhabitants will die of hunger themselves, and the main belly from gluttony. And if the Americans manage to bend the Persians without a war, then this will exactly correspond to the highest valor of the samurai code - to win without drawing weapons and without shedding blood. Where is cowardice and meanness here?
          1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
            Afinogen (Afinogen) 12 December 2020 21: 13
            +1
            Quote: Bindyuzhnik
            And if the Americans manage to bend the Persians without war

            This is cowardice. They rely purely on fear. If the Persians do not become afraid (although honestly, in all honesty, they are cowardly, if you remember how they avenged their general), the Americans will again attend to and go home to the bases. They will not bomb anyone.
            1. Binder Offline Binder
              Binder (Miron) 12 December 2020 21: 34
              -1
              This is not cowardice, but a sober calculation, a desire to save your servicemen and save considerable funds that will have to be spent on a war if it starts. And the Persians, not out of cowardice, refrain from revenge - they understand what awaits them in the event of a direct collision, no one wants to die for no reason, even the most stubborn fanatic.
              1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
                Afinogen (Afinogen) 12 December 2020 22: 48
                +2
                Quote: Bindyuzhnik
                This is not cowardice, but a sober calculation, a desire to save your servicemen and save a lot of money.

                This is again a lottery, and if the Persians tell the Americans, get out of here is not up to us, we have a pandemic. The Americans will collect all their ships and sail back, it turns out not an economy, but a waste of funds lol

                Quote: Bindyuzhnik
                And the Persians, not out of cowardice, refrain from revenge - they understand what awaits them in the event of a direct collision

                Why then shouted for a whole week, burned the flags of the amerikosov, raised their red flags of revenge, raised a wave of hype in all the world media and trotted out to take revenge ??? request If you are not going to take revenge, then keep quiet.
                1. Binder Offline Binder
                  Binder (Miron) 12 December 2020 23: 11
                  -2
                  Quote: Athenogen
                  If you are not going to take revenge, then keep quiet.

                  So they are Muslim, for them show-off is the most precious thing.
          2. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
            Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 23
            -1
            Quote: Bindyuzhnik
            There is no point in fighting North Korea - its inhabitants will die of hunger themselves, and the main belly from gluttony. AND

            It is curious to hear from a Jew speeches worthy of the Nazis who took Leningrad into a blockade. good
            Bravo!
            1. Binder Offline Binder
              Binder (Miron) 13 December 2020 15: 28
              -2
              What relation does the inhumane regime of the DPRK, which doomed the citizens of its country to life from hand to mouth, have to the blockade of Leningrad?
              1. Danila46 Offline Danila46
                Danila46 (Daniel) 14 December 2020 00: 46
                -2
                it is now fashionable there in Russia, opinions differing from them are equated with Gistapov propaganda. Poor ...
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 12 December 2020 18: 43
    +2
    Ha. Either articles - war is inevitable - then there will be no article of war, - war is inevitable - there will be no war, - pull forces to strike - unlikely

    Believe it or go tell fortunes on the tea leaves?

    Now gasoline will surely rise in price