Gazprom hit a dead end with Nord Stream 2


Gazprom has begun the completion of Nord Stream 2 on its own. However, in reality he will be able to lay only 2,6 kilometers of the pipeline in German territorial waters, and then - everything, there begins the Danish, where "Akademik Chersky" is prohibited from working. What, then, is Moscow counting on?


According to the data of the global positioning system of ships, "Chersky" from the site of the proposed construction went to Kaliningrad, its place was taken by the pipe-laying barge "Fortuna", designed to operate in shallow water. The remaining German section of the gas pipeline is just shallow. The departure of "Akademik" can be very symbolic.

The fact is that Gazprom's chances of actually completing the construction of Nord Stream 2 after the Swiss contractor leaves the project on its own are constantly falling, tending to zero. The paradox is that the domestic monopolist has pipe-laying vessels, but he cannot use them. Without insurance from a reputable international company, Akademik Chersky is not entitled to work in Danish territorial waters. Because of fear of US sanctions, the insurance community has made it clear that they are not very interested in all this. Since Copenhagen has shown itself to be a loyal ally of the United States, it would be extremely naive to expect the Kingdom to close its eyes to legal nuances. Especially now, when the US Congress has passed a bill that provides for new sanctions against Russian gas pipelines. Earlier, President Trump promised to veto them, but the regulation, which won more than two-thirds of the votes in both chambers, can now overcome it.

It turns out that Gazprom is at a dead end, from which it is unable to get out on its own. The completion of the rest of the pipeline depends on the mercy of a third party, which is very unfriendly to it. Despite this, the flotilla of the state corporation starts work in German waters to lay 2,6 kilometers of pipe. What for? It is possible that there is some connection with the fact that on December 17 the next press conference of President Putin will take place, at which he will undoubtedly be asked about the fate of Nord Stream 2. It is already clear that his promise to complete the construction of the gas pipeline by the first quarter of 2021 will not be fulfilled, but that way he will at least say something in response to corrosive journalists. “The work is in progress - the result will be,” something like that.

Meanwhile, the chances of actually building it, putting it into operation and then making money on it are minimal. Nord Stream 2 is half empty after the Third Energy Package applies to it, which automatically doubles its payback period. However, given the intention of Europe to cut oil and gas consumption by half in the next 20 years, and in 30 years to completely abandon them, the commercial efficiency of the gas pipeline is becoming a very controversial issue. Let's put it bluntly economics there was little in it initially, since the main goal of Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream was to bypass Ukraine.

Alas, the naive idea of ​​the top management of the state corporation to outplay the United States in Europe has failed. Let's be honest, it was doomed from the beginning, because it was a direct consequence of the erroneous decision, taking the Crimea, leaving the rest of the Independent to the Americans. In 2014 and even in 2015, there were different options for how Moscow could retain actual control over this territory, and at the same time over the Ukrainian GTS, but did not take advantage of any of them. Instead, they began to block bypass gas pipelines, which are now being “blown off” one after another, having absorbed billions of budget funds. The incompetence of Gazprom's management was especially evident when a new transit agreement with Ukraine was signed in December last year.

Recall, according to this agreement, the domestic monopolist undertook to pump 2020 billion cubic meters by the end of 60, and 40 billion cubic meters per year in the next four years. This whole epic with Western sanctions did not teach Miller's team anything at all, and for some reason they were firmly convinced that they would be given the opportunity to complete the construction of Nord Stream 2 in 2020. As we can see, Gazprom was not allowed to do this. Now there is an artificially created shortage of capacities, since next year, instead of 40 billion cubic meters, from 55 to 85 billion cubic meters will have to be pumped through the Ukrainian GTS, depending on what winter will be and how soon the European economy will recover. For exceeding the contractual volume, you will have to pay at an increased rate, ultimately out of our pockets.

The question remains, what to do next? It is highly doubtful that the Nord Stream 2 will be allowed to complete, but it is undoubted that it will have to feed Ukraine at an increased tariff from the bounty of Gazprom for another four years. It has long been clear that no one will fight the cause of all these problems, only heroically - with the consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to revise at least the Nord Stream 2 format itself, using the American sanctions as force majeure to abandon it without consequences for Russia (I hope that the highly paid lawyers of Gazprom nevertheless provided for a force majeure clause in the agreement - major in the form of force majeure circumstances or actions of third parties). We have to think about how to minimize and fix losses from this failed project.

As we did before told, it is possible to bring the pipeline to the Kaliningrad region, providing at least its energy independence. For the remaining four years, while we, by the grace of Alexei Miller, will feed Ukraine, build liquefied gas plants and terminals there, from which we will be able to flexibly ship LNG to any markets, whether European or Asian. The Americans want to sell expensive LNG in Europe, displacing pipeline LNG, and that's great, since Russian LNG will have a competitive advantage over it due to its short transport shoulder.
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  1. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 12 December 2020 12: 56
    -7
    At the VO, the "patriots" are jumping out of their pants with joy, from the headlines of the Russian media that the Fortuna barge has resumed construction of the SP-2, and then the Chersky is on its way. .. "Although she is only" going "to do this, and only on a stretch of about 3 km. But they are patriots, they live with slogans, to look for information, to analyze it, it's not for them, shouted a chant from "TV propaganda" and the soul rejoices. Let's see how Gazprom will get out of this situation, I'm interested in myself.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 13 December 2020 14: 22
      +2
      Master (what?) Do not worry about the enemies of the Russian Federation, SV-2 is not needed for today, abnormal winters have reduced gas needs, and all storage facilities are completely filled. In a couple of years, he will become needed, so the actions are. unhurried ... Here many are laying eggs for and against, and everything is empty ...
  2. Dear sofa expert. 12 December 2020 14: 34
    0
    Without insurance from a reputable international company, Akademik Chersky is not entitled to work in Danish territorial waters.

    The author, please show me a source proving the absence of insurance for a vessel located in the waters of the EU.

    In turn, I show you an official document proving the complete impossibility of finding and moving uninsured ships in EU waters

    https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Parlamentarische-Anfragen/2020/10/10-45.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

    This is an official request from the State Secretary of the German Ministry of Economy and Energy, a member of the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

    And this is proof that yesterday, the completion of SP2, was resumed.

    https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Arbeiten-an-Pipeline-Nord-Stream-2-wieder-aufgenommen,nordstream504.html
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 27
      -4
      Quote: Dear couch expert.
      Without insurance from a reputable international company, Akademik Chersky is not entitled to work in Danish territorial waters.

      The author, please show me a source proving the absence of insurance for a vessel located in the waters of the EU.

      In turn, I show you an official document proving the complete impossibility of finding and moving uninsured ships in EU waters

      https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Parlamentarische-Anfragen/2020/10/10-45.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4

      This is an official request from the State Secretary of the German Ministry of Economy and Energy, a member of the Bundestag from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

      And this is proof that yesterday, the completion of SP2, was resumed.

      https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Arbeiten-an-Pipeline-Nord-Stream-2-wieder-aufgenommen,nordstream504.html

      Substitute concepts. It is written in black and white that work can be done in German waters, but not in Danish waters. Work resumed in Germanic. What exactly is the difficulty for your understanding?
      1. Dear sofa expert. 13 December 2020 09: 31
        +6
        It is written in black and white that work can be done in German waters, but not in Danish waters.

        Oh, so you tell me about understanding the written text?
        Well, please translate it for me, IT'S ALWAYS this (there, in black and white, written!) .:

        Schiffe, die im internationalen Seeverkehr eingesetzt werden und die eine Bruttoraumzahl (BRZ) von mindestens 300 aufweisen, müssen in Hoheitsgewässern der Europäischen Union über eine Versicherung verfügen ...

        Once again, I repeat to you, Sergey. Don't try to underestimate your opponents. Well and yourself, too, evaluate objectively.
  3. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 12 December 2020 15: 05
    +10
    It is already clear that his promise to complete the gas pipeline by the first quarter of 2021 will not be fulfilled

    I’m curious, what if there is? Eat your tie or just dust yourself off and keep bending the line? smile
    By the way, they promised to finish building not by the 1st quarter but by the second one. Or in other words, in the 1st quarter, which means until the end of the 1st quarter. You "moved the timeline to the left so slightly". repeat

    There are also nuances. Firstly, there is no urgent need for a gas pipeline by the 1st quarter of 2021. You have described the reasons. Secondly, this is a problem not only for Gazprom, but also for the European partners, who "contributed to the cashier" half of the amount.

    However, given the intention of Europe to cut oil and gas consumption by half in the next 20 years, and in 30 years to completely abandon them, the commercial efficiency of the gas pipeline is becoming a very controversial issue.

    It is extremely naive, if not to say stupid, to think that it is possible to get rid of oil and gas in such a period. They have been getting rid of coal for a long time, but in Berlin stove-stoves are still being heated with coal. I chose the "suitable" sources. DW:
    Article for 2007, but things are still there.

    It is hard to believe that Berlin, one of the most progressive and fashionable cities in Europe, still has apartments with coal stoves.

    2019 year
    29% of electricity in Germany comes from coal.

    Compared to the previous year, the share of electricity generated by burning brown coal has decreased by 22%, and that of coal - by 33%.

    2020th year

    So gas and diesel fuel remain the main sources of heat in German homes. The share of gas - 45,9%, diesel - 29,8%. Last year 6,6% of residential buildings were connected to heating plants, 3,4% had heat pumps, 2,3% had electric heating. The rest are dwellings with different stoves in separate rooms: coal, wood, pellets and diesel fuel.

    And finally.

    Work for "Academician Chersky" is prohibited
    Completion of the rest of the pipeline depends on the mercy of a third party

    Expressions like these reflect your credo quite vividly. Deep admiration in blood?

    The Americans want to sell expensive LNG in Europe, displacing pipeline LNG, and that's great, since Russian LNG will have a competitive advantage over it due to its short transport shoulder.

    Well, of course, since a great master "wants", one must give. I didn't expect a different point of view from you lol

    For exceeding the contractual volume, you will have to pay at an increased rate, ultimately out of our pockets.

    I suppose to count on your pocket in this case is naive. It's like shearing a pig, a lot of screeching, little wool.

    Yes, I almost forgot, there are more suitable places for transporting LNG to Asia than Kaliningrad.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 26
      -5
      Quote: 123
      For exceeding the contractual volume, you will have to pay at an increased rate, ultimately out of our pockets.

      I suppose to count on your pocket in this case is naive. It's like shearing a pig, a lot of screeching, little wool.

      I pay taxes, like all other citizens of Russia.
    2. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 30
      -5
      Quote: 123
      Yes, I almost forgot, there are more suitable places for transporting LNG to Asia than Kaliningrad.

      There are, of course, more comfortable seats. It's just a consequence of the need to clean up after effective managers, minimizing the damage caused by them.
    3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 32
      -6
      Quote: 123
      Work for "Academician Chersky" is prohibited
      Completion of the rest of the pipeline depends on the mercy of a third party

      Expressions like these reflect your credo quite vividly. Deep admiration in blood?

      In principle, you do not know anything about my life credo. I have never worshiped anyone, unlike you and your would-be idol.
    4. The comment was deleted.
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 13 December 2020 13: 40
        +5
        We are a demagogue and a boor.

        I'm afraid your "dignity" is not limited to this. winked
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. koshmarik Offline koshmarik
    koshmarik (Vadim) 12 December 2020 18: 56
    +7
    Another customized, well paid, fake addressed to Russia. The dog barks - the caravan moves on. By the way, the demand for gas and petrol in Europe at the beginning of winter increased by more than 30%. The Danes will change to bicycles and see what they sing.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 13 December 2020 08: 25
      -6
      How do you know what is well paid? Show the check?
      And about the fake, could you bother to substantiate your loud statements?
      1. Dear sofa expert. 13 December 2020 09: 38
        +9
        How do you know what is well paid? Show the check?

        Some, over there, take their "visa-free and lacy panties" for their labors. What does the check have to do with it ???

        And about the fake, could you bother to substantiate your loud statements?

        You also didn't bother to substantiate your claims about the lack of insurance on the ship. Therefore, I also consider this article a fake.
      2. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 13 December 2020 13: 54
        +5
        And about the fake, could you bother to substantiate your loud statements?

        Well, at least some of the information is questionable and requires clarification, for example this one.

        Nord Stream-2 is half empty after the application of the norms of the Third Energy Package to it, which automatically doubles its payback period.

        Judging by the information below, this is not half. It turns out that the Austrian company will buy gas "on the shore". Whether there are still similar contracts or whether they are planned to be signed is anyone's guess. There is not a lot of new information among your "stamps". winked

        Gazprom signed a long-term contract with the Austrian OMV for the supply of gas to the largest market for the monopoly in Germany. According to Kommersant's information, the volume of the contract may be 6 billion cubic meters, the term - 15 years. According to analysts, the new contract may help Gazprom solve the problem of gas supplies via Nord Stream 2. Currently, European legislation prohibits the monopoly from loading the pipeline with its own gas by more than 50%, but by selling gas to European companies that support the project with a delivery point in Russia, the monopoly will be able to bypass this restriction.

        https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4595444
  6. Vladimir Kron Offline Vladimir Kron
    Vladimir Kron (Vladimir Kron) 13 December 2020 00: 39
    -6
    Nice pipe to drain shit !!!!!
  7. Evgeny Zhevlonenko (Evgeny Zhevlonenko) 13 December 2020 03: 52
    +8
    In fact, it is said that 2,6 km is a test shallow-water section from which they will start, nothing is said about the ban, as I understand it, there will be an analysis according to the circumstances.
  8. Evgeny Zhevlonenko (Evgeny Zhevlonenko) 13 December 2020 03: 56
    +6
    You are not tired yet, the same Platoshkin yelled good obscenities in March April, everything was gone, the plaster cast was removed, the client was leaving, we were all going to die, it’s not even funny anymore, the so-called “Caudla” will do everything quietly, and all these experts have a blue eye will broadcast "and I told you"
  9. Division Offline Division
    Division (Division) 13 December 2020 15: 19
    +6
    The Druzhba oil pipeline was also under construction. The USSR had to build from its own pipes, due to the NATO embargo on the supply of large-diameter pipes. SP 1 was also under sanctions. There will be no Crimean bridge, they said. At JV 2, Russia has already recaptured some of the costs of pipe supplies from Russia. After all, this flow is also being built by Western investors who paid for these pipes. At the moment, JV 2 is not particularly needed due to the reduced consumption. The road is a spoon for dinner. So, no one should hurry. Russia has been subject to sanctions since the days of Ivan the Terrible. Read the post-revolutionary sanctions and sanctions of the 30s of the last century. So, Russia is no stranger. Otherwise, you will have to lie down to the west as Ukraine fell and became impoverished.
  10. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 13 December 2020 20: 24
    +2
    Well, here's some fresh news. Trump is about to veto the defense budget where these sanctions are hammered. While this budget is being kicked back and forth, the train will leave.

    https://strana.ua/news/306425-donald-trap-sobiralsja-nalozhit-veto-na-oboronnyj-bjudzhet-ssha.html

    https://russian.rt.com/world/news/812693-tramp-veto-zakonoproekt
    1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
      ODRAP (Alexey) 15 December 2020 12: 34
      -3
      Gorgeous source.
      Ukrainian rag! laughing scrubbing to the limit ...
  11. mikhail.rybakov2017 (mikhail rybakov) 13 December 2020 23: 42
    0
    Unclear
  12. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
    ODRAP (Alexey) 15 December 2020 12: 32
    -3
    Trap, he is also a kind of dead end ...
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 17 December 2020 07: 43
    0
    Gazprom and the state have continuous holes in this area. Who will pay for them in the end is the question. Rhetorical..
  15. Igor Berg Offline Igor Berg
    Igor Berg (Igor Berg) 17 December 2020 20: 48
    0
    Smiled the phrase-the team of Gazprom and Miller that something there did not teach ... that Miller, without a call from the Kremlin figs that will do and sign, and decide, and plan ... and so it turns out, who is the main jamb and whose puncture ...
  16. The comment was deleted.
  17. arciteltor Offline arciteltor
    arciteltor (arxitektor) 18 December 2020 21: 38
    0
    What nonsense you write, 4,5 and 10 years does not matter, these are long-term for 100 years business, and in any case, the foreigners who invested money will not allow anyone to fail the project, and if you do not understand this, then why about it write, want to talk? change the subject
  18. Nick Offline Nick
    Nick (Nikolai) 20 December 2020 21: 07
    0
    The dilettante is the author with his ever-failing predictions. It's getting ridiculous. laughing .