Disable SWIFT: why Ukraine invites the West to a financial war with Russia


Obviously inspired by Azerbaijan's Karabakh success, Ukraine immediately stepped up in the direction of Donbass. Former President Leonid Kravchuk, who heads the Independence delegation to the Contact Group on the future of the unrecognized republics, set a tough deadline until the end of 2020 and threatened Russia with disconnecting from the SWIFT system. What is this, an imitation by Kiev of stormy activity, or preparation for something else?


The Ukrainian side interprets the Minsk agreements in its own way, demanding the complete demilitarization of the DPR and LPR, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and demobilization in the unrecognized republics, as well as the restoration of control over the border with the assistance of the OSCE. Kiev wants to achieve all this before the elections are held in this territory, and not after, as was stipulated in the Belarusian capital. Leonid Kravchuk demanded that the Kremlin fulfill its requirements by December 31, 2020, otherwise he threatened to turn to Western countries so that they disconnect Russia from the international SWIFT payment system. At the same time, Leonid Makarovich clearly took his breath away from the realization of his own significance:

If Russia is removed from this international settlement system, it economy would ... I don't know what words to use.

On this occasion, I would like to note several important points:

At first, no one will forbid Kiev to demand or, rather, ask the West for something like that, but not the fact that his request will be satisfied. SWIFT is an international interbank corporation based in Brussels. Threats to disconnect Russia from SWIFT sounded in 2014, but they remained empty threats. Yes, for example, the United States has serious leverage over the Europeans, but they take an emphatically neutral position and refuse to meet them halfway on this issue. And to Washington in terms of influence Kiev, as to the moon.

Secondly, the time for such a threat is already lost. The greatest sanctions effect would have been in 2014, but since then Russia has created its own analogue of this payment system. Let the System for the transmission of financial messages (SPFS) and is inferior in functionality and popularity to SWIFT, but its presence gives guarantees that a complete financial collapse will not occur. Also, the Mir payment system was created, to which Russian state employees were transferred. In addition, China has created its national payment system called CIPS (China International Payments System), and a number of Russian banks have already joined it. That is, there are now workarounds in case of Western sanctions, although some financial processes will undoubtedly become more complex and more expensive.

Then the question arises, why did Mr. Kravchuk decide to threaten Russia with disconnecting from SWIFT? On the one hand, these unconvincing threats that Western uncles will come and punish our country for Ukraine can be a banal shaking of the air. On the other hand, it is extremely annoying that there are certain clear deadlines and statements by Leonid Makarovich that “if Russia withdraws from the Minsk agreements, Ukraine will independently resolve issues with a territory called“ Separate areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions ”.

A few months ago, such threats caused a laugh, but after the 45-year war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended in an unexpected victory for Azerbaijan, it was somehow no laughing matter. Our great friend and partner, Turkish President Erdogan, may well help Kiev with the supply of attack UAVs and military experts for planning an offensive operation. The date of "Kravchuk's ultimatum" expires on December 31, and we will have to recall that in the post-Soviet space there is a bad tradition of starting armed conflicts with reference to major holidays.
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  1. Ukraine threatened
    Disconnect us from swift
    All Russia burst into tears
    How are we going to live now?
  2. boriz Online boriz
    boriz (boriz) 7 December 2020 13: 21
    +4
    The date of "Kravchuk's ultimatum" expires on December 31, ...

    It will be very funny if Russia from 01.01.2021/XNUMX/XNUMX. it will disconnect itself from SWIFT and from the dollar. In order not to be nervous anymore.
    Although, of course, not a fact. But they can also bring ...
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 7 December 2020 15: 02
      -1
      Exactly, not a fact.
  3. Bulanov Online Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 December 2020 13: 22
    +1
    If Russia is disconnected from SWIFT, Ukraine will immediately cease to receive payment for gas transit through its territory. Do not carry money with trucks!
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 7 December 2020 15: 19
    +3
    The Ukrainian side interprets the Minsk agreements in its own way, demanding the complete demilitarization of the DPR and LPR, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and demobilization in the unrecognized republics, as well as the restoration of control over the border with the assistance of the OSCE.

    It is a normal desire, because after Ukraine regains control over the border, no OSCE will interfere with the purge in the DPR-LPR, after which the election result will be unambiguously predictable.
    In this regard, an indicative reaction of the West to the murders of the leaders of the DPR-LPR by the Ukrainian special services is exactly like the murder of Iranian citizens. Everyone is fighting terrorism, but acts of terrorism are selectively condemned.

    Threats to disconnect Russia from SWIFT sounded in 2014, but they remained empty threats

    It would have been shut down long ago if Russian citizens hadn't been working for foreign owners of the "steamship newspaper factories." They will shut it down, but how can these gentlemen export their profits from the Russian Federation - by caravans of trucks?
    The Russian analogue of SWIFT, firstly, the Russian (!), And secondly, it has a very limited use even in the CIS, SCO and other organizations friendly to the Russian Federation, and therefore is considered as a backup system for internal use.
    There are always workarounds in case of Western sanctions, but firstly, they are foreign, and secondly, everyone understands the possible risks of Russia's joining them. At one time, Chinese banks simply blocked all financial transactions of the Russian Federation under the threat of falling under US sanctions.

    after the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended in an unexpected victory of Azerbaijan

    Is Azerbaijan's victory in what, did Nagorno-Karabakh come under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan? This did not happen.
    Armenia transferred only five regions to the control of Azerbaijan and retained the Lachin corridor, the road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Erdogan may well help Kiev with the supply of shock UAVs and military experts to plan an offensive operation

    Maybe not only Erdogan but our Western “partners”, then, as Y. Kedmi once said, the Ukrainian army will not have time to cross the Dnieper. Apparently our Western “partners” understand this and therefore behave very restrainedly.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 8 December 2020 06: 54
      -1
      Quote: Jacques Sekavar
      Maybe not only Erdogan but our Western “partners”, then, as Y. Kedmi once said, the Ukrainian army will not have time to cross the Dnieper. Apparently our Western “partners” understand this and therefore behave very restrainedly.

      Kedmi is still an authority to refer to. Imagine what your heart desires.
  5. ioan-e Offline ioan-e
    ioan-e (Boris) 7 December 2020 15: 44
    +1
    Just the same, the picture in the eyes is like a sweating pan Kravchuk on New Year's Eve manually disconnects Russia from the swift))))))))
  6. Petr Vladimirovich (Peter) 7 December 2020 19: 08
    0
    In the 80s, the SWIFT system did not exist. The whole world paid by "telegraph".
  7. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 7 December 2020 19: 47
    +2
    Have the Turks already found a replacement for the components of those countries that refused to supply Turkey?

  8. bear040 Offline bear040
    bear040 7 December 2020 22: 26
    +2
    1) But Turkey has no UAVs now so that Ukraine can distribute them. Some were lost in the battles, and now it is not destiny to build new ones, because Canada and the EU have imposed sanctions on the supply of engines, optics and electronics for UAVs to Turkey, and Turkey cannot build them independently. The Turks are trying to replace components from Canada and the EU with their own and Ukrainian parts, but when this is still possible, the quality of the UAVs themselves will noticeably decrease from this.
    2) The Russian Federation did not fight in Karabakh, since Armenia itself did not officially recognize Karabakh, and relations between the Russian Federation and Armenia are far from being the best because of the Russophobes of Pashinyan and the company. Donbass is a different matter, and neither Ukraine nor Turkey will pull against the Russian Federation, especially since Ukraine has quite serious problems with Hungary, and it is a NATO member, but Ukraine is not.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 8 December 2020 06: 57
      0
      Turkey was mentioned as an example. Our Israeli friends and partners also have a lot of UAVs. The fact that Ukraine cannot defeat the DPR-LPR with Russia standing behind them does not mean that it cannot try again, right?
      1. bear040 Offline bear040
        bear040 11 December 2020 20: 57
        +3
        She can try, but what will she get in return ?! There are 2 options:
        1) UKROPov rolls into asphalt GDP
        2) Donbass will merge the GDP, the Russian Federation will merge the GDP and the company, and those who come to power after, and this is definitely not Navalny, it is possible that they will hang him and Yavlinsky on the same bitch with Makarevich, Sobchak and other Russophobes, gouging the whole UKROPIA to zero.