Expert: "democratic Belarus" will leave Russia


The Kremlin is making the same mistake with Belarus as it did earlier in the "gas wars" in Europe, says a British journalist and vice president of the Center for European Analysis. policy Edward Lucas. His words are quoted by the Lithuanian portal tv3.lt.


A well-known expert on Russia believes that Moscow, while gaining tactical advantages in one way or another, invariably loses strategically. In particular, it allegedly forced some EU countries to diversify their energy imports through its pressure.

For example, Lithuania built its own LNG terminal, and then immediately agreed with the Russian monopoly gas supplier to significantly reduce prices. Croatia's long-awaited opening of a new liquefied natural gas complex on the island of Krk is similarly changing the supply chain for Southeast Europe

- concludes Mr. Lucas.

In a similar Technology, he believes, the Russians will lose Belarus too.

The expert recalled that "pro-democratic" protests weakened the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, but did not overthrow it. The Russian authorities see here an opportunity to seize key industries of Belarus and integrate a neighbor into the Union State, which will increase the political and military influence of the Russian Federation.

Lukashenka has no choice. He cannot suppress protests without enlisting the support of his powerful neighbor. And Russia will get what it wants for now.

As noted by the Latvian portal, the British expert argues that "Russia's behavior almost certainly guarantees that the [future] free democratic Belarus will not want to maintain close ties with Moscow." And that, "cynically using its momentary advantages, Russia paved the way for a huge strategic failure - it rejected its only remaining ally."

This ensures that Belarusians now associate Russia with a hated regime that beats and humiliates them. Moreover, they see this country as an economic predator. The Belarusians may be, which is quite fair, and disappointed with the cowardice and inaction of the West. However, they are more concerned about the hideous behavior of a country that was previously considered their closest neighbor.

- quotes the expert tv3.lt.

It is worth noting that Edward Lucas is already well known to the Russian reader for his militant Russophobic views. Translations of his works, which periodically appeared on the pages of the Russian media, often provoked extremely controversial responses from Russians.
  • Photos used: wwwpresident.gov.by
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  1. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 5 December 2020 16: 13
    +5
    Let him describe to us the "grandiose strategic victory" of London in Brexit. This is where the bottom is and below, and the hyena's jaws are Russophobic and writhe with envy and anger. insolence is full of impudence and this is their problem. There are practically no people.
    1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
      ODRAP (Alexey) 6 December 2020 11: 01
      -3
      Do you think that Britain has lost a big strategic position by leaving the EU?
      1. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
        Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 6 December 2020 11: 27
        +4
        In economic terms, of course, but the political and reputational losses are already great too. From the very beginning, the moment itself was extremely poorly chosen, and further down the slope, along the way, collecting problems, the lump of which is rapidly increasing.
        1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
          ODRAP (Alexey) 6 December 2020 11: 43
          -5
          They rose after WW2, although not immediately. Do you think there are absolutely idiots sitting there, have not counted and have not prepared? So this is you in vain.
          Reputational losses, in the eyes of the countries of the third or fourth world, they will easily survive.
          And the political ... well, when did Britain lose "for a long time"? Any tactical momentary losses, they easily played back strategically. Do you know that the Britons have already rushed to build a highway through Karabakh? :)))
          1. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
            Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 6 December 2020 11: 47
            +3
            You are also mistaken, attributing to the impudent qualities of wizards, magicians and sorcerers, impeccable in their strategy.

            And the old woman is proruha.
            1. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
              ODRAP (Alexey) 7 December 2020 00: 09
              -3
              I never attribute it. People are like people.
              That's just .... they are half a millennium, they ruled an empire over which the sun did not set.
              Do you think you could learn something?
          2. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 6 December 2020 20: 32
            +4
            And the political ... well, when did Britain lose "for a long time"? Any tactical momentary losses, they easily played back strategically.

            Where did the British Empire go, tell me? winked

            Do you know that the Britons have already rushed to build a highway through Karabakh? :)))

            So they left the EU for the sake of Karabakh? Will the roads be built? laughing crying laughing
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 5 December 2020 17: 24
    +2
    There is a living example - the outskirts, but most likely the western part will go to gays, and the east will remain with Russia, the main thing now is not to allow the Nazis from the western part to poison the east with their pus, as this happened on the outskirts
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 17: 35
      +4
      In Sumeria there is fascism, not Nazism. This territorial misunderstanding is a chimera, has no future and does not in any way fall under the definition of a nation.
      1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) 5 December 2020 18: 59
        +3
        As far as I know, there is still no clear definition of fascism, but initially the term fascism referred to a political movement led by Mussolini and its goal was to suppress the labor movement in Italy with the help of finance capital, and the Nazis of Germany simply adopted this ideology. Proceeding from this, on the outskirts, it is more likely Nazism than fascism, although I personally do not see much of a difference how not to call it, because the result is the same
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 19: 30
          -1

          Ukraine is not a mono-national state to speak of Nazism. Classical Nazism in Armenia.
          1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
            rotkiv04 (Victor) 5 December 2020 20: 13
            +1
            according to your definition of fascism, the outskirts are just more suited to Nazi education than to fascist
            1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
              Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 20: 29
              +1
              Is the president a Jew and Russians who call themselves Ukrainians? This is not Nazism. This is Svidomism (fascism).
            2. beeper Offline beeper
              beeper 6 December 2020 00: 21
              +2
              Quote: rotkiv04
              according to your definition of fascism, the outskirts are just more suited to Nazi education than to fascist

              hi So it is, Rotkiv04, banderonazi, dependent on the "favors" of Washington (in "mov" - "zalezhnoe"), "failed state (that's not what I said, they themselves, the most authoritative for Kiev and, in general, for" svidomites ", the American" sheriffs "so call the" former Ukrainian SSR "seized, occupied and colonized by them - literally, in the language of these" hegemons "-" failed state Ukraine "!)"! request
              Present and blooming "wildly" in the amerocolony "Ukraine" is a bright sign of Nazism - the presence of racial theories of "svidomism", "panivnoi nations" - "ubermenshey" and militant xenophobia, mainly Russophobia! negative
              Including it is present (and under the stifling oppression, xenophobic aggressively "Ukrainians", completely "w / Bandera" kleptov authorities, deafly rising and gaining strength "among the common people" now in Eastern Ukraine, which is so far tolerant of all nationalities, not only in Western !) Terry anti-Semitism, long-forgotten, even from the "Black Hundred-Haidamak-Hitler-Politsai" and,
              all Soviet years, it came mainly from the former Polish Galicia-Zapukria, along with the condovaya Polish-Austrian Russophobia, passed on "with mother's milk" to their Galician slaves, "non-slaves"!
              Parasites-Ukrainian "cosmopolitans" - "w / Bandera", ruthlessly robbing and plundering the occupied Ukrainian multinational labor population, strive to "divide and rule", sowing discord and enmity among their disadvantaged workers in a xenophobic manner!
              But "cunningly" trying to "channel" the people's hatred (arising towards kleptoparasites) and discontent (the terrible injustices perpetrated in Ukraine), directing it against us, their Russian fellow citizens (in the "Svidomite" jargon - "Muscovites"), "Ukrainians" Kiev and small-town "w / Bandera" and their marginal lackeys, who temporarily rallied on the deriban and robbery of the former Ukrainian SSR and its inhabitants, were clearly "too clever" (as they arrogantly forgot from the Polish-Galicai Bandera Nazi chants - "to knives" themselves, such " respectable Jews ", brazenly profiting from human humiliation and grief in every possible way! fool )!
              Ameromarionet "Maidan authorities", very recklessly, wake up no longer sleeping, but only a dormant beast, promoting "racial theories" and militant xenophobia, they arouse the most base instincts in the destitute Ukrainian population!
              "Sowing" the xenophobic-Russophobic "putrid wind" these Nazis - "w / Bandera", greedily, in a redneck way, clung to the "trough of power", will inevitably "reap" and "pogrom storm" .... and even, in advance " lured from their hands, "Banderonazi armed security gangs from" heroes "- marginalians will not save them, look, the" close "marauder Natsiks (many hereditary" anti-Semites "!) will also skillfully" gut their "cunning breadwinners" ??! winked
              I already see it from the inside, just stating the emerging trends in the actions of the "Maidan authorities" and, so far latent, "reciprocal" sentiments of a part of our population!
              Will we all be able to avoid bloody "perturbations" or Washington puppets, under "approvals" and suppression (as was the case with "quietly strangled and beaten to death" Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, "burned, dissected for organs" Odessa and "shot by" Mariup ....) the hypocritical "international democratic community" will be able to quietly strangle everyone ??! winked
          2. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
            Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 6 December 2020 15: 33
            -2
            Quote: Just Cat
            Ukraine is not a mono-national state to speak of Nazism.

            The points
            1 Authoritarianism - Ukraine is not an authoritarian state (unlike the Russian Federation)
            2 Militarism - Of course, I don't follow the people of Ukraine, do cartoons also show how missiles fall in Miami?
            3 Leadership - who is the leader in Ukraine? This is in the Russian Federation "There is Putin, there is Russia"
            4 Anticommunism - the Communist Party is prohibited (in the Russian Federation, the Communist Party is allowed)
            5 Anti-liberalism - clearly not (unlike the RF)
            6 The state is primary - obviously not (in the Russian Federation, too, it seems so far)
            7
            8 Church support is yes (as in the Russian Federation)
            9 Corporatism - I don’t know how in Ukraine, in the Russian Federation it blooms in a stormy color.

            Something not very much Ukraine is drawn to fascism (2 out of 9). RF has 6 out of 9.
        2. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
          ODRAP (Alexey) 9 December 2020 03: 51
          -3
          I remember it was the Russians who declared themselves people of the first grade, and all others - the second?
  3. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 5 December 2020 18: 37
    0
    The Westernized "Belarusian democratic opposition", judging by its voluminous (veiled-anti-Belarusian and openly Russophobic-anti-Russian !!!) "action program" Maidan "an unexpected" bummer "came out and a foolish attempt to" brainwash "the majority of the Belarusian population, and not only their meager" Maidan lohtorat ", and Maidan extremists from the" Neolithic-Zmagar "gang" Sveta10% & Co "urgently needed to hide their true intentions , so "shyly" they were "erased" and removed by them!), after the seizure of power in Belarus, she was not at all going to be friends with Russia!
    And just the opposite - these corrupt Western-like puppets were going to sever all ties with Russia, and, like their colleagues from Kiev, "w / Bandera" drag the "Maidan" captured country to the West, to the "democratic" cannibalistic razderiban and sale "for organs" !
    So, the Russian authorities reacted very correctly to the attempt at a Maidan coup in Belarus (including with the announcement of Maidan extremists, "Sveta 10%" and her accomplices, on the international wanted list, as dangerous criminals - such "Zmagar" villainous crimes cannot be left unpunished! )! yes
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 18: 54
      0
      You write hard. The general meaning is vaguely clear, looks like a set of chaotic thoughts. don't be an expert blogger wink
      1. beeper Offline beeper
        beeper 5 December 2020 19: 30
        +2
        Thank you for your review, because it is about your "cognitive abilities" too, Just a Cat! yes
        I do not strive for the megapopular "bloggers-experts" - in my life, and so, Soviet and post-Soviet, there was enough glory, even sideways! And on "Reporter", perhaps, it's time for me to "tie up to speak" - because "a long tongue - a short life", although, again, how much of that life I have left! smile
        I always wrote like that and nothingI and the entire "former Ukrainian SSR" were printed, and, unlike you, millions of people understood, some with Gratitude, and some not (but even outright enemies, of course, who were friends with their heads, those, in all honesty, frankly admitted that they described everything correctly and justly!)! winked
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 19: 46
          +2
          I somehow do not know what was printed in the Ukrainian SSR. I am a native and citizen of the RSFSR. And the differences in the concepts of correctness and fairness are significant. Some are glad that the neighbor's cow is dead, while others will give up the last shirt.
          1. beeper Offline beeper
            beeper 5 December 2020 20: 36
            +2
            Quote: Just Cat
            I somehow do not know what was printed in the Ukrainian SSR. I am a native and citizen of the RSFSR. And the differences in the concepts of correctness and fairness are significant. Some are glad that the neighbor's cow is dead, while others will give up the last shirt.

            hi Simply Kot, "citizen of the RSFSR-Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (it is you, as such a" citizen "became smile , after all, under the Union, we were all "citizens of the USSR" with a single, all-Union, Soviet passport, then there was no separate "republican citizenship", only the "registration institute" at the place of residence, and after the collapse of the USSR and the RSFSR, did it not become ?? !) "who is" not in the know ", am I here, on the topic of the anti-Russian Belarusian" opposition ", wrote about some" joys, cows and shirts ", troll, or something," imported "young" daughter of the Crimean officer "from some TsIPSO ?! what smile
            1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
              Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 21: 05
              +1
              Are you trying to hook or are you pretending to be Ukrainian? laughing In any case, the RSFSR is not the Ukrainian SSR and the population is DIFFERENT! If you're here about the Belarusian opposition, then don't write about your writing talent in Ukraine! Russia is the successor to the USSR and the RSFSR in particular. So it's the same thing. And your Ukraine is just a detail that has fallen off to jump for cookies.
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            2. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
              Just a cat (Bayun) 5 December 2020 21: 20
              -1
              The Constitution of the RSFSR 1978 (as amended on November 1, 1991)

              http://constitution.garant.ru/history/ussr-rsfsr/1978/red_1978/5478729/

              (has supreme power over the laws of the RSFSR) Chapter 5. Citizenship of the RSFSR. Art. 31 Equality of Citizens

              No one can be deprived of his citizenship or the right to change his citizenship ... In accordance with the single union citizenship established in the USSR, each citizen of the RSFSR is a citizen of the USSR.
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  4. Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 December 2020 19: 12
    0
    The democratic will leave, the undemocratic will not leave, the middle one is not clear what.

    Pretty dad framed everyone with 80%.
  5. Taras on Parnassus (Taras on Parnassus) 5 December 2020 19: 38
    -6
    (Ab) (about) judges, and which of you lives in Belarus?
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 5 December 2020 21: 37
      +4
      (Ab) (about) judges, and which of you lives in Belarus?

      Likewise, Edward Lucas is apparently not your giant. And the Lithuanian portal tv3.lt is probably not from Orsha. What is the essence of the claims?
  6. oracul Offline oracul
    oracul (leonid) 6 December 2020 08: 04
    0
    An expert is a specialist who knows more and more about less and less (not by me), but in this case, full compliance. Nowadays the favorite pastime of this public is fortune telling on the coffee grounds. like astrologers. Will come true or not come true is not important.
  7. Taras on Parnassus (Taras on Parnassus) 6 December 2020 09: 31
    -2
    Quote: Taras on Parnassus
    (Ab) (about) judges, and which of you lives in Belarus?

    I just asked the experts if there was anyone from White Russia and came across a wall of misunderstanding ...
  8. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 6 December 2020 09: 55
    +1
    Nobody canceled the EU-NATO Eastern Partnership program, and it covers Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
  9. ODRAP Offline ODRAP
    ODRAP (Alexey) 6 December 2020 11: 14
    -3
    This is an obvious zugzwang.
    To support #YaBatka, morally and financially, to get the rejection of ordinary Belarusians. Commentators from Russia, call for "hit and kill", this is not forgotten. Support by force, send troops and Zolotovtsev, get another bag of useful sanctions, both for yourself and, with a trailer, for #YaBatka.
    Not to support and keep silent on the sidelines, that's how Armenia ... after all, they will demolish Luka and replay all relations. And the West will help, it is easier to rebuild a relatively small Belarus on new rails than Ukraine.
    To start protecting Russian-speaking citizens in the Gomel People's Republic? So it's to shoot, not even in the leg ...
    And the protests have not subsided for four months. Maidan in Kiev was less.
  10. Ivan Dovgy Offline Ivan Dovgy
    Ivan Dovgy 6 December 2020 11: 42
    +1
    I agree on the merits. The main problem is that the authorities do not care about the people, they break them through the knee. The basic values ​​of the Slavs, such as freedom, truth and justice, are violated.
    politobzor.net/225911-ex-press-nazvalo-glavnuyu-problemu-kremlya-v-belarusi.html
  11. Dmitry Donskoy Offline Dmitry Donskoy
    Dmitry Donskoy (Dmitry Donskoy) 6 December 2020 11: 52
    0
    Dictatorial Belarus under riot police is the best friend
  12. Alexander Razgulyaev (Alexander Razgulyaev) 6 December 2020 12: 00
    0
    Belarusian democracy (that is, the so-called oligarchs) are the same as ours, for a hundred dollars they will hand over their mother to the zoo.
  13. minby Offline minby
    minby 6 December 2020 20: 47
    0
    This was not written by an "expert", but simply a propagandist. The West almost always passes off what is desirable for reality and says and writes what is beneficial to them. Double standards are already in the past, now there are triple and more. And all the bolder and more assertive. I am very glad that at least so far these are only Western Wishlist. And my country is still opposed to this.