The issue of Transnistria and gas can forever embroil Moscow and Chisinau


The Karabakh success of Azerbaijan turned the head not only of Kiev, where they looked at the unrecognized republics of Donbass with a new look, but also Chisinau. Even without taking office, the first thing the elected President of Moldova Maia Sandu did was to return to the problem of Transnistria (PMR), which is Russia's “Achilles' heel”. Apparently, a course has been taken to finally break the historical ties between our countries according to the "Ukrainian scenario" and push Chisinau into the strong embrace of the West. Unfortunately, there are no special options to prevent this.


Mrs. Sandu put on the agenda the issue of Russian troops and peacekeepers in her country, as well as the debt of Tiraspol for gas supplies, clearly linking them together. At the same time, she subtly hinted at how events could develop if Chisinau does not receive what it wants from the Kremlin.

At first, all Moldovan authorities are consistently demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops. Let us recall that they are present there in two qualities: they are peacekeepers guaranteeing the security of Transnistria, as well as an operational group of troops assigned to guard military depots filled with weapons since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. Initially, there were 60 thousand tons of ammunition, by now the total amount has decreased to 20 thousand tons due to the gradual removal and disposal. These are cartridges, mines, grenades, shells, aerial bombs. It is believed that half of this good has expired, and it cannot be transported. The total number of the Russian contingent in Moldova is estimated at XNUMX people, and they are there with the consent of the OSCE. The US even offered Chisinau assistance in disposing of ammunition in order to speed up the process of withdrawing the Russians. The newly elected President Sandu proposed replacing them with some civilian observers under the auspices of the OSCE. Moscow responded to her initiative without enthusiasm, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on this occasion:

We will hardly be able to accept such a rather irresponsible demand ... They primarily solve the problem of maintaining stability in this region, which is of fundamental importance so that there would not be some new outburst of bloody conflict.

Indeed, in the current geopolitical realities, a relapse of the Transnistrian conflict is quite possible. The new Moldovan authorities have clearly chosen a course towards integration with Romania within the European Union. Pro-Russian Transnistria will be like a bone in their throat, and when the peacekeepers leave, nothing will prevent Chisinau from taking control of the unrecognized republic. The most bloody scenario is possible if the warehouses with weapons fall into the hands of local nationalists, who, according to the "Ukrainian scenario", will gather in volunteers and go to establish their own order there.

Secondly, there is a problem of debt for gas supplied from Russia. A fairly powerful industry has remained in Transnistria since Soviet times, which consumes Russian gas, and its products go to our country. You have to pay for fuel, but Chisinau has taken an interesting position: it considers the unrecognized republic its territory, demanding the withdrawal of peacekeepers from it, but refuses to pay its debts on principle.

The fact that President Sandu linked these issues speaks of her readiness to bargain with both the Kremlin and the West. In all likelihood, Russia will be given a choice: to write off the gas debt instead of the fact that our military will remain for now, or Chisinau will still pay the debt for Tiraspol, but the Russians will have to go out. In the latter case, the costs of Moldova can be compensated by the West, represented by the European Union, for removing from its borders a completely unnecessary armed pro-Russian enclave. Debt cancellation by Gazprom will be perceived as a great victory for President Sandu, but $ 7,5 billion is a large sum even for our "national heritage", which has run out of money over the past few years. There is no doubt that the next step will be to return the issue of the Russian military contingent to the agenda. And getting out will be extremely problematic.

The point is that Chisinau has a fairly wide arsenal of means of pressure. Together with Ukraine, he can take the unrecognized republic into economic blockade and begin to strangle it. When Turkish and Israeli attack UAVs suddenly appear in Moldova, it will be a transparent allusion to the possibility of a "Karabakh scenario." If President Sandu closes the PMR problem by force, like Baku, there will be no way back. There is even a variant in which there is a territorial exchange of Transnistria for the Ukrainian Northern Bukovina and Southern Bessarabia. Then the problem of the unrecognized republic will be solved by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And the Kremlin will have little to resist this, since, unlike the DPR and LPR, it does not have a common border with the PMR. Our small military contingent simply will not withstand the Ukrainian army, which is superior in number and weapons, and it will be necessary to transfer reinforcements either through Ukraine itself or through a NATO country, which is not possible. And here we have to regret the extreme short-sightedness of the Kremlin, which in 2014 itself pushed aside Novorossia, which was literally coming into its hands, with its Odessa region.
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  • Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 2 December 2020 15: 45
    +2
    In all likelihood, Russia will be given a choice: to write off the gas debt instead of the fact that our military will remain for now, or Chisinau will still pay the debt for Tiraspol, but the Russians will have to go out. In the latter case, the costs of Moldova can be compensated by the West, represented by the European Union, for removing from its borders a completely unnecessary armed pro-Russian enclave.

    Eco you have a fantasy that played out laughing Are the Europeans giving this citizen 7,5 billion to pay off the debt to Gazprom? It went right to tears crying What if Moscow says no? And even gas will stop supplying until the debt is paid off?

    There is no doubt that the next step will be to return the issue of the Russian military contingent to the agenda. And getting out will be extremely problematic.

    What do you smoke there? belay Your "logic" does not fit in my head at all. request The Germans give Sandu money, she pays off the debts, then turns to Putin and proudly declares, and now I don’t owe you anything, withdraw the troops ... And he will not sow anything to argue ... the debt has been paid ... Are Russian troops there to ensure debt repayment? smile Straight from their fantasy story laughing What if Putin just says no? sad

    The point is that Chisinau has a fairly wide arsenal of means of pressure. Together with Ukraine, he can take the unrecognized republic into an economic blockade and begin to strangle it.

    If anything, they say on January 1, the term of the agreement on duty-free trade with Moldova ends ... I mean, as if the "choke" was not torn off them ...

    And here we have to regret the extreme short-sightedness of the Kremlin, which in 2014 itself pushed aside Novorossia with its Odessa region, which was literally coming into its hands.

    When will you stop lying? sad Who repulsed whom and when? Can you tell?
    1. Shelest2000 Offline Shelest2000
      Shelest2000 2 December 2020 18: 25
      0
      What if Moscow says no? And even gas will stop supplying until the debt is paid off?

      This answer is simply stupid to even assume. Tell me when Moscow said "NO" in modern history. The modern history of Russia suggests that the current "Moscow" always sells everyone for money. And such "assumptions" are reminiscent of one well-known phrase - richer with a thought.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 2 December 2020 20: 00
        +1
        Will the facts be or Svidomo slogans limited?
        I suppose you yourself are corrupt and reliable, and judge people by yourself. Everyone knows this. Here is such a reasoning .... to match yours. laughing Try to refute.
        And do you learn the language, do you learn to write the name of Russia correctly, or does the pan get in the way? smile Get rich further hi
        1. Shelest2000 Offline Shelest2000
          Shelest2000 23 December 2020 18: 16
          0
          Baby. The Russia in which I was born and raised is not there. She was sold and betrayed. And they sell and betray to this day. Who! Well, we see these muzzles every day in all the media. And from every iron. Incl. There is no Russia. There are Russians with a poverty-stricken population, killed by health care, education, destroyed factories, and almost destroyed space. But there are more than a hundred billionaires. Surprisingly, they are very close to zero.
          But you can continue to puff up your eyes in your rose-colored glasses and count the pink elephants.
          1. 123 Offline 123
            123 (123) 23 December 2020 19: 04
            -1
            Baby.

            Wolf Tambovsky for you baby sad

            The Russia in which I was born and raised is not there.

            The last emperor found alive? smile

            She was sold and betrayed. And they sell and betray to this day.

            This slogan is not less than 300 years old. Isn't there anything fresher?

            Who! Well, we see these muzzles every day in all the media. And from every iron.

            I don’t watch TV, by the way, I don’t listen to the iron either, which I recommend to you.

            There are Russians with a poverty-stricken population killed by health care, education, destroyed factories, factories and nearly destroyed space.

            Let's point by point
            1) In what year in "Russia of your youth" the population was not a beggar and in what way it was expressed.
            2) In what year did healthcare suit you?
            3) If possible in figures, who, where, how much.
            And finally, what do you want in space.
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 2 December 2020 15: 59
    +2
    I have already said that any question and problem can be solved when they are posed point-blank. We need to give up the role of benefactors and saviors. Everyone should know where the Russian soldier stands - this is Russia! And there will be no more liberation wars. If they try to attack, there will be no mercy! And tanks are 20 km away. stop, no more!
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 2 December 2020 16: 57
      0
      Don't bump your horns against the wall. to act more far-sighted ... For example, to declare the export of warehouses from the PMR, and to take out a teaspoon a day, so there will be free travel to Transnistria for a year, during this time there will be no reason to press the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces, because the withdrawal is taking place ... And of course, to decide the issue of joining the Russian Federation, because there was a nationwide vote, so to legalize and accept the Transnistrian Republic in the Russian Federation. There is a Kaliningrad enclave in the north, there will be a Transnistrian enclave in the south - very important strategic territories ...
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 2 December 2020 16: 42
    +2
    The newly elected President Sandu proposed replacing them with some civilian observers under the auspices of the OSCE.

    - Will this military ammunition depot be guarded by some kind of "Mitrich" from the OSCE, sitting on the rubble?

    Our small military contingent simply cannot withstand the Ukrainian army, which is superior in size and armament, and it will be necessary to transfer reinforcements either through Ukraine itself or through a NATO country, which is not possible.

    - If there is an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian peacekeepers, the issue of the transfer of troops to Ukraine will disappear due to the loss of Ukraine's statehood, as Putin promised ...
  4. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 2 December 2020 17: 22
    0
    And here we have to regret the extreme short-sightedness of the Kremlin, which in 2014 itself pushed aside Novorossia with its Odessa region, which was literally coming into its hands.

    - Yes, the Kremlin pushed Odessa ... just like industrial Kharkov pushed aside ... - The indistinctness of Russian policy then, its actions and the indecision of our guarantor ... all this was transferred to Odessa and Kharkov and many other territories, which they could really return under the auspices of Russia ... - And there would be no war in Novorossia and all this confrontation ... with Ukraine, etc.
    - Obviously ... our guarantor was a bad Chekist and could not take advantage of a very favorable situation for Russia ... - Although it would seem ... - everything itself goes into Russia's hands ... - The legitimate Ukrainian president fled to Russia ... - Press him so that he at least once publicly reported to the entire world community at a press conference with world journalists; with all the press; with all world TV channels ... - I would declare to the whole world ... to the whole world ... to the whole world ... - that in order to prevent bloodshed in Ukraine; which became possible after the bandit putsch in Ukraine ... - he ... the legally elected president of Ukraine "such and such" ... - appeals to the Russian leadership with a request to urgently provide military assistance ... - and so on and so on and so on. ..
    - How would it have turned out later ... is one thing ... - And the fact that this statement had to be made ... is just an indisputable fact ...
    - Then Odessa and Kharkov and Mariupol and the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine and a good half of the territory of Ukraine itself would simply return to Russia ... - after all, the entire Ukrainian police and Berkut and the Ukrainian army were on the side of Russia (or neutral in at least) ... - That's all ... - there would be no war ...
    - But the "American Chekists" had the will, endurance and courage not to miss this moment out of their control and turn everything in their favor ... - Although they had much less chances and opportunities for this; than Russia ... - They managed to reverse this favorable situation for Russia and carry out a coup d'etat in Ukraine; while Moscow was flapping its ears in indecision ...
    - And the "American Chekists" urgently organized a war with Novorossiya ... - such a distraction; to bind their new Ukrainian wards with blood ... and urgently create a split among the Ukrainian people ... - and they succeeded ... - And Novorossia itself ... as no one needed ... - remained. .. - unnecessary to anyone ...
    - Today the whole of Novorossia ... is like a parachute jump ... - just a means of maneuvering ... - And so ... - Novorossia is simply not needed by anyone ... - neither Russia ... - nor Ukraine ...
  5. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
    Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 2 December 2020 21: 53
    -2
    Odessa asked for the "Russian world" and went into the hands of Putin itself? When did this happen? Or just a fantasy played out?
    1. Natan bruk Offline Natan bruk
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 2 December 2020 21: 58
      -3
      By the way, about the well-known Odessa events, when the “anti-Maidanists” began to provoke heated football fans - who was responsible for everything that happened, who allowed all this development of events? Odessa police, not? But why did its chief Fucheji immediately after these events fled to Russia “And no one is looking for him there, they are not showing him anything, why is that?
  6. art573 Offline art573
    art573 (Artyom Vladimirovich Yarovikov) 3 December 2020 01: 49
    0
    can withdraw. Especially when paying a debt.
  7. max wespe Offline max wespe
    max wespe (max wespe) 3 December 2020 03: 04
    0
    The Russians have you, but you are getting stronger. The funny thing is that you are already reflexively throwing yourself and splashing saliva in all directions without figuring out who is to blame. Let's take a look at the structure of debt using the example of 2014 (the structure is approximately the same over the years)
    In 2014, the PMR consumed approximately 1,9 bcm of Russian gas.
    Of these, MGRES (owned by Inter RAO Group) consumed 1,3 bcm.

    Of these 1,3 billion - 0,2 billion it consumed to generate about 600 million kWh of energy for Transnistria and 1,1 billion it consumed to generate 3300 million kWh of electricity for export to Moldova.
    At the same time, the price of gas for MGPS from Tiraspoltransgaz (a subsidiary of Gazprom) averaged $ 150 per 1000 m3. And the price of Gazprom for Tiraspoltransgaz was $ 378,75 per 1000 m3 (now $ 75 for MGPS and $ 177 for Tiraspoltransgaz)
    Out of 600 million kWh of energy for Transnistria, 370 million. kWh of energy was consumed by MMZ (owned by Usmanov).
    That is, it turns out that Moldova paid the lion's share of the consumed gas indirectly for electricity to the Russian "Inter RAO", and the rest went to the Russian owners. The entire debt lies with Tiraspoltransgaz LLC, owned by Gazprom as well as Moldovagaz JSC, about 70%.
    Can you ask questions where the $ 7 billion is to Gazprom, Inter RAO, Usmanov and others not mentioned here?
  8. Semyon Semyonov_2 (Semyon Semyonov) 3 December 2020 08: 28
    0
    Someone owes something to someone?
  9. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 8 December 2020 10: 22
    +1
    Russia, eternally impoverished, Moldova is not painfully needed. you can't shake her off. Therefore, it is possible to recognize Transnistria ... The Russians must be protected, and not betrayed by capitulatory agreements, such as the Minsk ones.