Epigraph: "We are not going to fight with anyone, we are trying to create conditions so that no one would try to fight with us!" (V.V. Putin)
Proceeding from the concept declared by Putin about the possibility of us delivering only a retaliatory or counter strike (our military doctrine does not provide for a preemptive strike, which is a pity!), Let us consider which of our potential adversaries can attempt to cross our land border and where?
And these people are going to fight with Russia ?!
The latest NATO exercise, Trident Juncture-2018, the largest since the Cold War, once again confirmed the obvious fact that this bulky machine can only fight the Russians on TV and on paper. In reality, the exercises showed that NATO's escalation capabilities were clearly exaggerated, they could not promptly deliver and disembark their mechanized and motorized brigades from ships, which, according to the exercise plan, were supposed to deploy in time X. Both X and Y have passed, and time Z, and the British "bobbies" (marines) all continued to fight with the Norwegian quarantine service, which did not allow the tracked track, smeared with British soil, into its territory machinery subjects of Her Majesty (they are going to enter our territory, apparently, without the permission of our orderlies). Such a shame the royal military has not known since the disastrous Ardennes operation in 1944.
But these were still flowers. The berries went later. At the stage of deployment and extension, it suddenly became clear that the European bridges did not fit in terms of carrying capacity, the height of the flyovers was insufficient, and in some places the modern NATO equipment did not fit into the roads even in width. And this is on the excellent roads of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. I don’t even know how they gathered to fight with us! Apparently, they are going to storm Moscow off-road, in the forest. I sympathize with them - Hitler got stuck, Napoleon got stuck, apparently, the sad experience of their famous predecessors does not teach Russia the new conquerors. Although the British have to give credit, they really look at things. By the end of the exercise, when they nevertheless arrived at the place for a nodding analysis, they had to admit that if the next time their marching companies were able to get to the right place at least within 3 days, it would already be a victory. But these are the British, the Turks, for example, just turned around and left the exercises. Really! All 40 people! I'm not laughing, this is how much the second largest NATO army put in to participate in these large-scale maneuvers. And the reason for this was more than sufficient - in the training manuals distributed to all participants in the exercises, for some reason the Republic of Turkey appeared among the main enemies of NATO, and personally its founder and first President Kemal Ataturk and its current head Recep Erdogan, who were named among the main enemies The Alliance, along with the sore Putin, Ayatollah Khamenei and Kim Jong-un. The impulsive sultan could not stand such rudeness!
We saw all kinds of things at NATO exercises. But not that! There are some mistakes that are committed not by fools, but by scoundrels!
- Erdogan, offended in the best feelings, said in his hearts, not accepting the apology from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
There are questions that cannot be closed with a simple apology!
- snapped Erdogan, and one could hear Stoltenberg, who shot himself in shame, fell.
So, even before starting the exercise, the Alliance has already suffered significant losses.
Needless to say, all this was accompanied by many emergencies, incidents and absurd accidents. During the exercise period, NATO broke all records for the number of accidents and accidents. So, only in the process of preparing and conducting the field phase of the maneuvers from August to November 7 inclusive, NATO and the Norwegian Armed Forces received 412 reports of incidents that caused damage to the environment and infrastructure of the country, as well as 51 complaints from the local population. In particular, there were 30 road accidents with military and civilian equipment.
Chain limitrophes and one sultan
And these people are going to fight with Russia! Their tanks will not fit into our gates in size. True, they are not going to fight themselves, but with the hands of their saber-toothed limitrophes. Vaughn, Poland, Lithuania, Georgia (unfinished), Ukraine are already breaking off the leash, clanging their teeth, demanding - arm us and we will go on a crusade to Moscow. Well, we will not seriously consider Georgia and Lithuania and Estonia, they will simply stand up there, but I would not discount the Slavic brothers from Poland and Ukraine (these simply hate us historically), adding to them the Turkish sultan who, on occasion, will never fail to snatch a fatter piece from Russia (this is also that friend with whom enemies are not needed!).
But since we are considering here the land invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation by the enemy's tank armada, we will find out what plans NATO has in this regard. A recent study by the Washington-based Center for European Analysis policy (CEPA) gave us three possible scenarios, in which dozens of NATO and EU officials, as well as civilian defense experts, participated. Three scenarios assumed three routes for the transfer of NATO troops to the region. One of the routes touched Romania, or rather the Focsani Gate. The other two considered the North Baltic route (Norway-Sweden-Estonia) and the Suwalki corridor in Poland. Apparently, the teachings of two years ago "Trident Juncture-2018" did not teach them anything. The road infrastructure of Northern Europe turned out to be completely unsuitable for this. But maybe it's easier in the south?
These are the difficulties the Hungarians faced when they tried to transfer from their old T-72s to the German Leopards-2. According to the brigade commander of the 25th Infantry Division, who was the first to receive 12 German Leopard 2A4HUs leased in the FRG, their problems began already at the stage of crew combat training. For this purpose, only one polygon was suitable, the road to which passed under the bridge. At the same time, the height and width of the "Leopard-2" did not allow it, unlike the T-72, to pass through the tunnel. Therefore, the tanks had to go through the overpass, and one at a time. it was not designed for a load of more than 80 tons. And these are the German "Leoprads-2", and the American "Abrams M1A1" and the British "Challengers-2" - they will be even heavier and larger. While they will get to us, they will destroy half of Europe.
By the way, why aren't the SERA strategists embarrassed by the fact that Ukraine is somehow hidden between Russia and Romania? Or has her consent to transit been asked for some time now? Although everything is clear with her, she herself will take part in the military campaign, she has been sharpening teeth on her northern neighbor for six years. It is even strange that the CEPA specialists did not work out the option of transferring troops through the port of Odessa. There are simply unlimited possibilities. What the hell is infrastructure? Directly along the route Odessa-Dnepr-Kharkov, Odessa-Kiev-Chernigov to Moscow. Armored tank columns. Without making out the road! The natives, why are they dear? And who will ask them? And if you were completely smart enough to act, then it was necessary to organize the production of tanks there at the Ukrainian production base (why drive ships here and there, it's an expensive pleasure!). And here, cheap and cheerful, since they still have a plant for this from the Union.
Ukrainian tank T-84BM "Oplot. Photo: VoidWanderer / wikimedia.org
Kharkiv Heavy Engineering Plant named after Malyshev, the same one whose design bureau developed our famous T-34, and later produced the only diesel version of the T-80UD in the Union (Russians only have gas-turbine analogues) and modifications based on it (T-84, T-84 " Yatagan ", T-84U" Oplot ", T-84BM" Oplot "). And as long as we did not destroy this plant with one nuclear strike (just kidding!), They could rivet more than one hundred tanks. And then to Moscow!
But Ukraine is more likely a supplier not of cheap tanks, but of cheap cannon fodder in a potential war with Russia. The same cannot be said about Poland. The Polish ground forces have about 900 tanks, over 1 infantry fighting vehicles, and over 600 helicopters (army aviation). The troops include mechanized and armored units, rocket and artillery troops, air defense troops, airmobile troops, etc. In addition to the Soviet T-140 (72 units) and its Polish version PT-505 (91 units), the armored forces of the Republic of Poland are also armed with German "Leopards-233" - 2 units. "Leopard 105A2" and 5 units. Leopard 142A2.
Polish "Leopard 2A5". Photo: Kekator / wikimedia.org
In general, they are ready for war. You just have to go through Belarus. Here the consent of the father, it seems, they will not wait. Therefore, the route through the Suwalki corridor proposed by CEPA is not at all an option. Bogged down in the forests and swamps of the Republic of Belarus.
It remains to consider the Turkish threat. But the Sultan, it seems, has nothing to come with. With all the might of the second NATO army (after the United States), the equipment of its armored component leaves much to be desired. You will laugh, but her 7 tank and 14 mechanized brigades are armed with obsolete American medium tanks from the Yom Kippur War. 750 M48A5 50s, 650 M60A3 60s, another 100 M60A1 and 166 M60T also 60s.
Tank М60А1 of the Turkish army. Photo: KIZILSUNGUR / wikimedia.org
There are also outdated "Leopard-1" 80s in the amount of 170 + 227 pieces (A3 and A4 versions) and 316 pieces of new "Leopard 2A4". Well, as new - the same age as our T-80, in service since 1979. With such a rarity, he cannot conquer Russia. That is why the sultan went all out trying to get the first Ukrainian T-84 "Oplot", which was adapted to NATO's 120-mm cannon and was named T-84-120 "Yatagan", but did not go. Then he rushed about with the idea of creating his own tank "Altai". The MBT has nothing to do with our Altai, the tank is named after a Turkish military hero. Despite its patriotic swing, due to the lack of experience in tank building, Ankara was forced to turn to other people's technologies. The German corporation KMW refused to transfer the license for its Leopard 2, so the Altai is 60% a modernized but simplified South Korean tank K2 Black Panther. Hyundai Rotem was then a partner. It was supposed to create several versions of the combat vehicle: 250 units of T1, T2 with improved armor and even T3 with an uninhabited turret and automatic loader.
But then problems arose. The Turkish "national" tank, in addition to the Korean genes, was to be equipped with a German RENK transmission and an MTU Friedrichshafen turbodiesel with a capacity of 1500 hp. Armor for MBT was supposed to be made in France. However, the Sultan's relations with Berlin and Paris have sharply deteriorated in recent years due to the intensified aggressive foreign policy of Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Presidents Macron and Erdogan have become almost the worst enemies, and Germany has joined the anti-Turkish arms embargo. The former empire is not yet strong enough to cope with these technological problems. Therefore, the sultan's march to the East, apparently, will have to be postponed until better times.
So on closer inspection, it turned out that our bear has no enemies in the forest yet. All are herbivores. It's not just that they are going to go on a trip to Moscow, but it would not hurt to think that Moscow itself would not come to visit them and would not ask at whose expense we are walking, guys?