Three scenarios for the global economy after the US elections


Despite the fact that the elections in the United States were held and Joe Biden was proclaimed the winner, the history of confrontation between Democrats and Republicans is not yet over. Donald Trump does not give up and intends to defend his victory in the Supreme Court, where he still retains a strong position and the chances of revising the results of the vote count. This means that the United States is now at a crossroads, and with it the entire world economygiven their status of "hegemon".


There are three basic scenarios and a ton of variations on the theme within each one. Let's take a quick look at how the outcome of the American elections will affect all of us.

Trump remains


If President Donald Trump can prove in the Supreme Court that the last election was rigged in favor of the competitors who stole his victory, the consequences for the Democratic Party will be very serious. A scandalous trial over political opponents. In the field of economics, the Republican will continue the course towards the collapse of the "globalist" project. Most likely, the United States will leave the WTO, which has lost its relevance after China created the RCEP. Washington will put more pressure on Beijing to curb the expansion of Chinese capital and influence. American corporations will continue to withdraw production from China and Southeast Asia to their "heartland", labor migration will be limited. You can forget about the "covid repression" against the population and business under Trump. The dollar will gradually weaken due to "quantitative easing" and the need to improve the competitiveness of US exporters.

For Russia, Donald Trump is a very controversial character. On the one hand, it puts pressure on Nord Stream 2 in favor of American gas producers. On the other hand, he does not apply the toughest sanctions and does not pay special attention to our country with its 3% of world GDP. His policy, aimed at the collapse of the "globalist" project of Russia, is objectively beneficial, since it gives a chance to restore national sovereignty.

Biden comes


Biden's team, on the other hand, intends to maximize the topic of the coronavirus pandemic and print new trillions of dollars, as well as issue public debt bonds in order to flood this fire with money. The manufacturing economy will collapse faster and faster under the pretext of a transition to a post-industrial society based on technologies that are being introduced by corporations from Silicon Valley. The accelerated digitalization of public life will continue, ostensibly to increase the effectiveness of the fight against coronavirus and other infectious diseases, which we will learn about in due time.

Under the pretext of the need to jointly fight climate change, the Democrats will renovate their "globalist" project aimed at reducing the national sovereignty of individual states. Supranational health and environmental structures will be actively promoted under the auspices of the United States, with enormous influence on politics and economics. The main beneficiaries of Joe Biden's presidency will be the owners of multinational corporations. Russia's chances of breaking free from their "tutelage" will be sharply reduced, especially when you consider how many Western liberals we have in power.

American Troubles


But there is a third scenario, the relevance of which is growing as Donald Trump continues to struggle for power. If he manages to prove the fact of falsifications and his victory, then nothing good for Biden's headquarters will shine. To avoid shameful criminal proceedings, Democrats can take their Antifa and BLM militants out onto the streets. Further events can develop according to many scenarios, one of which is the actual disintegration of the United States into two "democratic" coasts and a "republican" Midwest. For all the "karmic" justice of such an event, it will carry a lot of negative consequences for the rest of the world.

At first, this means the collapse of the dollar system on which the entire world financial system is built. Investors will run to save themselves in gold, but bankers, together with transnational IT corporations (Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google), will undoubtedly try to create their own surrogate in the form of a global digital currency.

Secondly, the fragmentation of the United States and the collapse of established economic ties will mean the collapse of the American domestic market, the richest in the world. It would seem that in Beijing, Moscow or Berlin they will have to dance with joy, but it is necessary to understand that the Chinese and European economic models are directly tied to exports to the United States. The drop in export volumes will very quickly reduce the level of welfare, social stability and prospects for further development in the PRC and the EU.

Accordingly, all this will negatively affect Russia with its economic model based primarily on the export of hydrocarbons and other resources. The bottom line is that keeping Donald Trump in power is the least possible evil.
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  1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 23 November 2020 16: 18
    -1
    Donald Trump no longer shines. During the elections, it was necessary to request a certificate of Joseph Biden's health, so that dementia of the brain is definable, so take him out of the distance, and now it's too late, there is a vice-president, she will take over the presidency ...
  2. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 23 November 2020 16: 39
    +5
    The collapse of the United States does not fundamentally affect the Russian Federation and other countries. It will be much worse if the United States does not collapse now. The soap bubble of the American national debt will burst anyway, sooner or later and better now, because saving it Biden and his schizophrenics are quite capable of unleashing a major war, including a nuclear one
  3. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 23 November 2020 16: 53
    +1
    Three scenarios for the global economy

    Six scenarios for human development:
    1. Loves
    2.Don't like
    3. will spit
    4 kiss
    5 she will marry
    6. ... will send
    The likelihood of any - as in the above article.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 November 2020 07: 34
      -1
      Quote: layman
      The likelihood of any - as in the above article.

      Your nickname suits you very well smile
      1. amateur Offline amateur
        amateur (Victor) 24 November 2020 07: 36
        0
        Thanks! I know.