Expert: Russia made a geopolitical coup in the Caucasus


Discussions about what is more in the new Russian role in Transcaucasia after the second war for Nagorno-Karabakh - victory or defeat - are not abating in the world. In particular, the British political scientist Laurence Broers, whose article is published by the American resource EurasiaNet, is asking a similar question.


The author notes that thanks to Moscow's "sudden mediation" in the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement, as well as the rapid deployment of peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, "Russia appears to have made an impressive geopolitical coup." Thus, according to the expert, Moscow added Azerbaijan to the list of the Transcaucasian states in which it settled, along the way isolating the West and replacing Turkey.

Obviously, throughout the six-week war, Russia's restraint has been the subject of heated speculation.

There were two opposing opinions: either Moscow was really playing for a long time all this time, eventually establishing a new order, or Russia, on the contrary, was caught off guard by Turkey's tough invasion of its backyard.

However, according to the British expert, it may lie in the middle. Faced with a major war close to its borders, Moscow improvised by taking a number of tactical steps, consciously seeking to avoid over-commitment. This can be seen as a reflection of pragmatism in policy Russia in relation to its "near abroad". And the Kremlin is now giving preference to real assets over "neo-imperial nostalgia."

The Kremlin has revived a scheme known since 2015 and unofficially referred to as the Lavrov Plan. In the past, Moscow has failed to persuade the parties to agree to the plan, in part because it called for the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces. This resistance was undermined by the results of a six-week war that devastated Armenia and returned to Azerbaijan not only four regions around Nagorno-Karabakh, but also a symbolic and strategic prize in the form of the city of Shushi.

Why Baku then did not start completing the operation is a question that will be widely discussed in the coming years. However, this restraint on the part of Azerbaijan was rewarded with a number of concessions, ranging from the withdrawal of Armenian troops from all territories around Karabakh, to the long-awaited land corridor to Nakhichevan.

A large peacekeeping operation, deployed in such a short time, might not have been included in the Kremlin's plans from the very beginning when a new war was just beginning. But once the simpler options were exhausted, Moscow took decisive action to avert the consequences that could have become even more costly for its position in the region.
  • Photos used: Russian Ministry of Defense
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 November 2020 09: 44
    0
    Right: Peremoga after Peremoga. And then there and then some "iksperdy" from foreign anonymous / portals do not believe.
  2. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
    Cudgel (Dubina) 20 November 2020 11: 13
    -1
    I like Ozerovskoe "Liberation" very much, there is a scene in the fourth episode, when our men made a throw from the Vistula to the Oder.

    Hitler summoned the commanders and asked about the situation on the Eastern Front. The ungrateful role of voicing the true situation was taken by the scoundrel Guderian.
    Hitler: "Guderian, report the situation between the Vistula and the Oder."
    Scoundrel Guderian: "My Fuhrer, on the Eastern front between the Vistula and the Oder ... there have been major changes."
    Hitler: "What do you mean, Guderian?"
    Scoundrel Guderian: "My Fuhrer, the Russian 1st Panzer Army ... today approached the Oder south of Kustrin."
    And the main line:
    Hitler: “60 kilometers from Berlin? This is treason! Betrayal! And treason!
    For 150 years, no enemy soldier has set foot on German soil!
    150 years, Guderian! "

    Where have I brought this? Yesterday, the Turkish Parliament highlighted:

    After 103 years, Turkey returned to the Caucasus!

    For 103 years a Turkish soldier has never set foot on the land of the Caucasus, 103 years!
    Write further about the hepolytic Victories of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus!
    1. Peter Rusin Offline Peter Rusin
      Peter Rusin (Peter Rusin) 22 November 2020 16: 05
      0
      If it’s wrong, don’t read it! This is not just a victory, but the protection of Armenians from a new genocide! Pashinyan leaked and betrayed everything with the nursing pigs!
      1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
        Cudgel (Dubina) 22 November 2020 20: 06
        -2
        Oh well. They will give a savory kick to our peacekeepers even before the 5-year term and the conversation will end. What kind of Armenians they should defend, they will not defend themselves if they start shooting at them. Armenians will not remain in NGOs, even with peacekeepers, even without them.
  3. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
    Cudgel (Dubina) 20 November 2020 11: 38
    -1
    Interestingly, it was reported to the bunker that the troops of NATO's Turkey appeared in the Caucasus? Or they cut off the communication with the outside world in the bunker so that the GDP would continue to think that there are only ours in Karabakh.
    It is possible to broadcast parallel news for VVP, the same leading ones that are on Russia-24 and Channel 1, but the news is different.
    1. Ivan Semenov Offline Ivan Semenov
      Ivan Semenov (Ivan Semenov) 20 November 2020 16: 53
      +1
      Quote: Cudgel
      Or they cut off communication with the outside world in the bunker so that VVP continues to think that

      There is such a profession - to denigrate the Motherland.
      1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
        Cudgel (Dubina) 20 November 2020 17: 41
        -1
        Yes, no worse than the profession, to lick one place.
    2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 20 November 2020 16: 57
      +3
      When Turkey appears at the gates of Israel, the same jokes will come in handy ...
      1. Cudgel Offline Cudgel
        Cudgel (Dubina) 20 November 2020 17: 49
        -3
        ... when Turkey appears at the gates of Israel ..

        - then write. It is too early.
      2. _AMUHb_ Offline _AMUHb_
        _AMUHb_ (_AMUHb_) 20 November 2020 22: 07
        +5
        What about Israel to Bandera?))
  4. nodir979 Offline nodir979
    nodir979 (Nodir Fayozov) 21 November 2020 08: 41
    -2
    Bullshit.
  5. pvlshvz Offline pvlshvz
    pvlshvz (Paul) 21 November 2020 11: 24
    +3
    Competently the VVP got out of the multi-way setup in Karabakh. Checkmate. Judging by the multi-day pause in the comments of Pind0sov's "daughters of officers" for Pind0stan, this is a decent puncture, almost the same as with Krym. So much money wasted on Pashinyan and such a bummer. Knowing the meanness and meanness of the "partners", one can expect that now they will go all out