Why is the issue of transferring Belarusian transit to Russia not being resolved?

After Europe did not recognize the results of the presidential elections in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko seriously quarreled with his neighbors and even offered to abandon the services of the Baltic states as a transit country. Moscow welcomed the change in approach with enthusiasm, but in fact things are still there. Why is there no real progress towards transferring Belarusian exports to Russian trade ports?

It is no secret that the Kremlin raised the issue of transshipment of oil products and potash fertilizers through Russia in front of Minsk back in 2006, and then raised it again in 2017. Despite his verbal readiness to meet his dear ally and partner halfway, President Lukashenko prefers to limit himself to imitation of activities. And there are a number of pretty serious reasons for this:

At firstThere is simply no direct railroad from Belarus to the Russian Ust-Luga, it still needs to be built. Even when it appears, the logistics shoulder will grow by 300 kilometers compared to transit through the Baltic states. The main competitive advantage of the Belarusian potash fertilizers in the world market is their low price, achieved due to severe dumping. When transported by rail, exporters will have to pay for every kilometer, which will lead to higher prices for their products.

Secondly, the domestic port infrastructure is not yet ready to accept the entire Belarusian cargo traffic. Minsk annually sends about 30 million tons through the Baltic States, of which 8 million tons are oil products, 10 million tons are potash fertilizers. At the moment our ports of Primorsk, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga are capable of receiving an additional 2 to 3 million tons of oil products. There are no corresponding free capacities for potash fertilizers.

The scale of the problem is evidenced by the fact that last year about 36% of the volume of Russian fertilizers had to be exported through Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, that is, the countries from which we want to take transit. Also, do not forget that Belarus owns 30% of the terminal intended for the transshipment of bulk cargo in Klaipeda. Under the terms of its acquisition, Minsk pledged to use the Lithuanian port for 10 years, that is, until 2023.

However, all these difficulties are resolvable. Railways and terminals can and should be built; it is a matter of time and money. Investments in our own transport and port infrastructure in the Baltic are welcome. You will also have to be ready to fork out to "compensate" Minsk for its transit costs through Russian territory. Initially, it was about a 50% discount on railway tariffs, now there are rumors about zero tariff at all. A special economic there will be no benefits for our country, this is a question policy.

However, there is still a third, most fundamental problem, which is not customary to speak directly about. The transfer of cargo flows from the Baltic ports to the Russian ones will tear the veil of secrecy from the numerous "gray schemes" on which respected people in Minsk are firmly seated. 10 million tons of smuggled oil products under the guise of "acetone" is the approximate scale of their activities. Who can easily give up such a dusty business?

However, Alexander Grigorievich has already made a couple of visits on this topic. First, he proposed to build a Belarusian terminal in Russia at the expense of a Russian loan, saved on the BelNPP project. He later asked the Kremlin sell Minsk is a large oil field, where Belarusian companies could independently develop and export. It is not excluded that there is a certain relationship between the cover of the "gray schemes" for the smuggling of oil products and direct access to Russian resources. If this is really so, then without solving the issue of such informal “compensations”, real progress in transferring the Belarusian cargo traffic to Ust-Luga will have to wait for quite a long time.
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  1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 14 November 2020 11: 58
    but why should he translate something, But Father has already oklemalsya, once again he bred the sun-faced one to the people's money, so that everything will remain as before until they take him out on a pitchfork together with Kolenka
  2. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 14 November 2020 12: 33
    Minsk annually sends about 30 million tons through the Baltic States, of which 8 million tons are oil products,

    Found oil in Belarus?
    1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
      Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 14 November 2020 13: 28
      gasoline from Russian oil
  3. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 14 November 2020 14: 15
    Everything is going according to Luke's plan. To promise everything to everyone and everyone, including Russia in the first place. The Kremlin will be destroyed and that's all. It is possible to excommunicate Luca from power only as Ceusescu.
  4. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 14 November 2020 14: 42
    Leopard change his spots.
  5. King3214 Offline King3214
    King3214 (Sergius) 14 November 2020 18: 19
    Putin is a smart man and a far-sighted politician.
    But looking at his attitude towards Lukashenka and Belarus, it is hard to believe in it.
    Since 08.08.2008, when the "only ally" famously sent both Putin and Russia. And this Crimea did not recognize it either.
    1. Uneven Offline Uneven
      Uneven (VADIM STOLBOV) 14 November 2020 23: 05
      Putin is a smart man and a far-sighted politician.

      Do you have evidence of this highly controversial thesis?
      1. King3214 Offline King3214
        King3214 (Sergius) 15 November 2020 11: 31
        Russia's position in the world changed dramatically with the arrival of Putin.
        A blockhead, like a Western liberal, is not capable of that.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 14 November 2020 19: 34
    Ha. Well, And ..... (according to Lavrov)

    To promise is not to marry.

    - normal people know this.

    To seriously spoil the logistic scheme (in the article) - you also have to be "according to Lavrov".
    Old Man bargains and saves every dollar. I have already regulated all the misunderstandings with Ukraine, I got money from Russia, and soon it will settle down with the Baltic states ...

    And the dissatisfied can write to ... Putin, for example ...
  7. olpin51 Offline olpin51
    olpin51 (Oleg Pinegin) 15 November 2020 15: 41
    Here you go. You have to follow the bazaar. And then they talked, said and nothing is ready. It turns out strange.
  8. Heroes Heroes Offline Heroes Heroes
    Heroes Heroes (Sergei) 17 November 2020 21: 15
    Because the cunning Luka turns eggs!