From war to disintegration: Poland named four scenarios for the future of Russia


Scenarios of interaction between Russia and Europe until 2030 were discussed by experts from the international group EUREN, writes the Polish portal wPolityce.pl. In the opinion of these experts, there are four main scenarios for the development of events in this area.


The first, and most likely, was defined as a relative "partnership". After several years of freezing relations, the EU is beginning to carefully cooperate with Russia. At the same time, Putin leaves the presidency in 2024, and his successor begins deep reforms.

The conflict in Donbass is still not resolved, but due to a change of generations, negotiations begin in the Kremlin, which allow elections in the Donbass republics to be held according to Ukrainian laws. The problem of Crimea continues to divide Europe and Russia.

The second scenario implements a different sequence of events. Putin, as in the previous vision, leaves office after 2024, but is replaced by a politician who is not going to go to the West.

Russia is becoming more and more dependent on China, and the EU will collapse. As a result, Eurosceptics are winning in 2024 in France and Italy, further exacerbating the divisions. Each power is fighting for a special relationship with Russia.

Nevertheless, this decline of the European project and the return of rivalry between states, as noted, is "still better" than the next path, described as "on the brink of war."

In this version, the publication notes, Putin will rule Russia until 2030, and his departure is not expected at all. Hydrocarbon prices have remained low over the past decade, but the Kremlin has managed to keep political and social stability without diminishing their ability to use force.

However, all this is happening at the cost of the country's collapse into apathy and stagnation, and the only effective tool for maintaining social mobilization is the continuation of an aggressive foreign policy

- the analysis says.

Europe is emerging from the crisis more consolidated. Atlantic relations are strengthening because the United States is run by an administration that is less critical of European allies than Donald Trump.

NATO is gaining strength, and joint US-European pressure on Russia, including sanctions, is starting to grow. China, unwilling to risk being drawn into someone else's conflict, is gradually moving away from Moscow, which in fact remains alone. In such conditions, any event can lead to a big war.

And finally, the fourth scenario proposed by experts comes from a significant strengthening of the European Union after the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant weakening of Russia, which will be on the verge of collapse. The ruling elite in the Russian Federation is completely changing.

These two trends - a strong and calculating Europe in its own foreign policy and a weakened and impoverished Russia with a new ruling elite - make it possible to reconcile and establish cooperation on new terms.

- noted in the article of the Polish edition.
  • Used photos: kremlin.ru
6 comments
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  1. Tamara Smirnova Offline Tamara Smirnova
    Tamara Smirnova (Tamara Smirnova) 10 November 2020 08: 42
    0
    All the same centuries-old flawed Wishlist. Actually, for the same chubonostsy, only better dressed, and therefore wishlist from one dirty trough full of holes.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 10 November 2020 08: 52
    0
    At the same time, Putin leaves the presidency in 2024, and his successor begins deep reforms.

    - And what do the Poles have under the guise of deep reforms? Collecting Russian lands and turning back to the EU? Or do they expect to reappear in the Moscow Kremlin?
    The best that they can break off is a legal departure from the Molotov-Ribentropp pact.
  3. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 10 November 2020 09: 17
    +1
    Kapets from Poles, forecasters are fig ...
    It's like a meteorologist comes out about the weather for tomorrow and says:
    - I have four weather forecasts for you tomorrow.
    1st: tomorrow will be a sunny day, calm and warm!
    2nd: tomorrow it will be foggy and damp.
    3rd: tomorrow there will be light rain and strong wind.
    4th: tomorrow there will be a downpour, thunderstorm, strong wind with gusts up to 100500 m / s.
    But that's not all! Snow, hail, ice, blizzard, sandstorms, meteor showers, floods, drought and alien invasions are possible!
    And two days later, say, "Well, forecast number 3 has come true, as I predicted!"
    I don't want to joke about doctors with their diagnoses ...

    And these could give a dozen more predictions like: Latvian citizens tired of living in fear of Russian aggression attacked Moscow, seized it in half an hour and started tough LatinSHIZATION of everything that was possible. They do not care, but we would have broken with such forecasts.
  4. Dan Offline Dan
    Dan (Daniel) 10 November 2020 09: 37
    0
    These forecasters cannot make a forecast for themselves. Enemies free them and feed them, and their allies betray and plunder. What are these thoughts, saturated with Russophobia and arrogance of the gentry? So, they write nonsense on the topic of the day for a fee ... no more.
  5. amateur Offline amateur
    amateur (Victor) 10 November 2020 09: 49
    -1
    As my late grandmother used to say, "even a cat will not be angry with their words."
  6. DeGreen Offline DeGreen
    DeGreen 10 November 2020 10: 49
    -1
    At one time, the Assyrian fortuneteller Burukhtan II and the soothsayer from Narnia Abdurahman Pakhabich predicted about Poland. Poland will fall apart after a large tribe appears there with pots for heads. They will begin to rock Poland, shouting old mantras in a new way.