What will follow the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia?

The successes of the Azerbaijani army in Nagorno-Karabakh forced the Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan to turn to Moscow for military assistance. However, the Kremlin made it very clear that they would stand up for Armenia only if she herself was in danger. Russian troops will not fight on the territory of the unrecognized republic. How then can Yerevan drag an ally into its civil strife with Azerbaijan?

With all due respect to the Armenian leadership, it is behaving in an inappropriate manner, demanding from Russia to protect Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). The problem is that this Armenian republic is not recognized as independent even by Armenia itself. The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO) had no legal right to secede from the Azerbaijan SSR in accordance with the Constitution of the USSR. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the administrative boundaries of sovereign Azerbaijan were recognized, including by Yerevan and Moscow itself.

There is also another view of this problem. Supporters of Artsakh's independence refer to the fact that the republic was created in accordance with the "right to protection" of the Armenian people within the framework of the so-called remedial secession. On the same grounds, the Republic of Kosovo was created in due time, it is also possible to draw some parallels with the formation of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. However, Russia did not recognize either Kosovo or the DPR and LPR. If the Kremlin suddenly changes its position in relation to the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh, this means that Baku will immediately become its enemy and finally "lie" under Ankara.

Questions will arise as to why Moscow ignores the requests of the proclaimed republics of Donbass, and their desire to join the Russian Federation. If the Kremlin nevertheless recognizes the independence of the DPR and LPR, one will have to ask why it did not do this before, if it recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and even included Crimea in the state. Where does this selectivity come from?

The issue with all these republics is the most delicate for Russia, and therefore the Armenian leadership can put pressure on it. If the Azerbaijani army, with the support of Turkey, gains the upper hand, Yerevan will have a choice: to capitulate, "drain" Artsakh, or make a "knight's move" with its recognition. Loss of Nagorno-Karabakh will be the end political Nikol Pashinyan's career, because the second option will be the least of all evils for him personally. But this will automatically transfer the situation in the region to a fundamentally different level of tension.

First, the Azerbaijan is likely to declare war on Armenia and transfer hostilities to its territory. This will force the Russian Federation to enter the war. Then Ankara will be even more actively involved in the matter from Baku. The appearance of Turkish military bases in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea can be considered a settled matter.

Secondly, Yerevan can go even further by announcing the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Considering that Armenia is a member of the CSTO, NATO will raise questions as to why the pro-Russian military bloc includes states with problem territories. In response, the North Atlantic Alliance will accept Georgia and Ukraine.

With just one step, Yerevan can overwhelm Russia and radically change the entire geopolitical alignment in the region. And before this step there is nothing left.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 November 2020 15: 19
    There are no fools.
    Declare, do not announce, no one wants to risk being dishonored. Everything as it was and will continue.

    How many "promises" of involving Russia were already there, nothing came true. Ivans / Armenians / Mykols / Ali shoot at each other, and Turkey calmly lets the Russian military transports through.
    Loot does not smell ...
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 November 2020 15: 59
      There is no money here, but strategic calculations, and sacrifices of pawns for strategy are commonplace, especially when it comes to the "very big bubble" - the hydrocarbons of the Mediterranean and other Kurdistan ... Although the policy of the Russian Federation for decades only suffered failures, when ALL neighboring states passed on the side of a potential enemy, so why is the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry S. Lavrov and the other Surkovs praised to this day with their constant defeats. The answer is that the domestic policy in the Russian Federation is no better, the country is not only stagnant. but also in a comparative rollback in development ...
  2. passing by Offline passing by
    passing by (passing by) 3 November 2020 16: 34
    Does Russia recognize Karabakh for Armenia? so it will be the same as 30 years ago. return 7 regions to Azerbaijan!
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 November 2020 17: 43
    First, Azerbaijan is likely to declare war on Armenia and transfer hostilities to its territory.

    Is not a fact. Rather, most likely this will not happen. How can the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's INDEPENDENCE lead to the declaration of war on Armenia?

    Secondly, Yerevan can go even further by announcing the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

    It is possible. But in this case, Armenia completely withdraws from the negotiation process and the OSCE Minsk Group can dissolve itself. No country in the world recognizes such a step. And then Armenia will be left alone with Azerbaijan.
    There is also a third option. The states are going crazy and guarantee effective assistance to Armenia. This is a complete fur animal for Armenia.
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 3 November 2020 17: 48
      states have already helped the Georgians ... dead blacks were lying on the streets of Tskhinvali and toilet paper was never unloaded from the aircraft carrier .... they still ask to return the captured hummers.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 November 2020 18: 01
        Just "dead blacks" are not a problem for the States. If Russia does not give a damn about the South Caucasus, then I don’t understand what they mean then. And nothing to worry about.
        1. passing by Offline passing by
          passing by (passing by) 3 November 2020 18: 15
          for states and dead Latinos who dream of obtaining citizenship through the army is not a problem. I think the Kremlin has relied on the state proven by centuries and not on every d ... in the hole, constantly looking for a new owner.
  4. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 3 November 2020 18: 28
    Armenia can recognize whatever it wants, these are its problems, not the Russian Federation. Something that Armenia itself Crimea has not yet recognized as part of the Russian Federation
  5. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 November 2020 21: 59
    Here there is a good legal analysis of the issue of NKR recognition.

  6. nikolaj.prosto Offline nikolaj.prosto
    nikolaj.prosto (Nikolay Just) 6 November 2020 14: 35
    As the Chinese say, crisis = opportunity. The author sees only problems for Russia. But I see an excellent opportunity to strengthen Russia's position in the Caucasus. This means that in Syria we "were not afraid" to stand up for Assad, "so that international terrorism does not come to our borders." Even at the cost of inevitable friction with Turkey, Israel and the United States. And at its borders, Syrian "courage" suddenly turned into neutrality, as in the events in Ukraine. Maybe the whole point is that in Syria we were allowed to be bold because of the American shareholders of Gazprom, who are interested in maintaining Assad's power. And in Azerbaijan, the American and British bosses allow the Turks to behave bravely. For us - Russia - this is prohibited. So there are similar articles, the main idea of ​​which is to justify the ostrich policy of the Russian authorities. Turkey, USA, England are not partners. And not even opponents. They are enemies. If the enemy is at the gate, he must be destroyed. Otherwise, tomorrow he will be in our house.
  7. Eskimo Offline Eskimo
    Eskimo (Gera) 13 November 2020 13: 38
    The funny thing is that Lavrov came to Athens to offer Putin's intermediation towards the resolution of the Greek-Turkish conflict. Intermediation satisfying Turkey as with Nagorno-Karabakh? What a joke ... This person, Putin, who lost to the West ALL Orthodox countries (including Byelorussia), is slowly helping in the revival of the ottoman empire to attack eventually Russia itself.