Expert: Baku puts forward an ultimatum that cannot be accepted by Yerevan

Baku is single-handedly changing the order of the previous agreements on the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and putting forward practically impossible conditions for Yerevan - this is indicated in her blog by the deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Elena Panina. According to Panina, Azerbaijan is changing the status of the Lachin and Kelbajar regions.

Back in 2011, an agreement was reached on transferring seven border regions of Nagorno-Karabakh under Baku's control, while Azerbaijan guaranteed the security of the unrecognized republic. The previous head of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan proposed in addition to this the transfer of five regions of the security belt of Karabakh to Azerbaijan in exchange for lifting the railway blockade. At the moment, Azerbaijani forces, with the support of Turkey, have occupied four regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, threatening Lachin - this actually means blocking the NKR. In such conditions, Baku is talking about a truce, which is a very strong position for negotiations.

Baku is actually putting forward an ultimatum that cannot be accepted by Armenia and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group consisting of Russia, the United States and France

- the deputy notes.

Thus, the parties will not be able to agree on the status of the unrecognized republic, and representatives of the Minsk Group will not go to defeat Yerevan. The position of Azerbaijan and the Turkey behind it is strengthening, but Ankara's rival countries in the region will not give it the opportunity to further strengthen its positions. According to Panina, London remains in Erdogan's reserve - in this case, the NATO fault line will run across Karabakh, which is fraught with the ripening of a larger world conflict.
  • Photos used: Ruaf Mammadov / CC BY 4.0
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 14: 30
    If it's not a secret, what exactly is Baku's demands? What is the ultimatum?
    1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
      Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 November 2020 20: 56
      Quote: Bakht
      If it's not a secret, what exactly is Baku's demands? What is the ultimatum?

      Judge not by their words, but by their deeds. As for me, it is advisable to consider the current situation in the aggregate and interconnection of all factors.
      1. State structure of the enemy countries. Armenia is an unstable democracy with a very strong corruption component. Its leader came to power legally flawed. By the time the conflict began, the country was not united. Azerbaijan is a clannish authoritarian state with an authoritative and experienced political leader at its head. Azerbaijan had more opportunities to concentrate resources at the decisive moment.
      2. Economy and, accordingly, the capabilities of the opponents' sun. Not to say that Baku's GDP per capita is absolutely higher than that of Yerevan. But still higher. And most importantly, Aliyev has invested huge sums of money in training an efficient army. A dictatorship, according to General de Gaulle's tricks, is always more effective than democracy in times of devastation and military confrontation.
      3. The legitimacy of the positions of Baku and Yerevan in the conflict. A local conflict is taking place on the territory of Azerbaijan, de facto annexed by Armenia. These acquisitions are not recognized by any country in the world.
      4. Allies. Azerbaijan has Turkey. Armenia has a sympathetic person in France. But just a sympathetic person, nothing more. Plus, I guess Baku received from Israel not only modern UAVs, but also a forecast of how the whole campaign will end in connection with their use. Baku very competently interested Jerusalem in the confrontation with Tehran, oil supplies. And in general, at the level of interethnic relations, Azerbaijanis and Jews have never had any problems. I read that Azerbaijanis, speaking about Jews, always added: Nashen Jews. In Uzbek it will be "byza yahudlar." But he could not find the word "nashensky". And the Armenians, still could not calm down, that in 1915 the Turks slaughtered them, but there were no Jews.
      In this situation, Baku initially counted on success. There were probably several plans, depending on the development of events. Things went on for Azerbaijan according to the best option. If Baku takes Shusha, then Karabakh will be in an operational environment. Stepanakert is 20 minutes away from Shushi by car. Why are there any ultimatums? For Aliyev, the main thing is to "blabber" the situation while continuing the offensive. And then, with the participation of mediators, register the victory.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 21: 33
        These are all obvious facts. I don't agree with everyone. But, in principle, it is true. But the question was posed differently. Ms Panina claims that Baku is putting forward an ultimatum unacceptable for Yerevan. I wanted to ask - what exactly is the ultimatum?
        1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
          Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 November 2020 21: 52
          There was no ultimatum, specifically. And it couldn't be. All tasks have not been solved in Baku yet.
          1. Bakht Offline Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 November 2020 21: 54
            Mrs. Panina Elena Vladimirovna, deputy of the State Duma of the mass convocations, doctor of sciences, professor, academician. Really lied? And there is no ultimatum?
            What, then, to expect from mere mortals?
            1. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
              Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 2 November 2020 22: 33
              You know the catch phrase about when they lie most of all.
  2. Hayer31 Offline Hayer31
    Hayer31 (Kashchei) 2 November 2020 16: 20
    Armenia will no longer be Russia's ally without Karabakh. This will mean Moscow's withdrawal from the South Caucasus.
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 2 November 2020 17: 04
      and now an ally? laughing the same allies as the Ukrainians.
    2. Toha from KZ Offline Toha from KZ
      Toha from KZ (Anton) 2 November 2020 17: 09
      What a grief to lose such an ally! Another less ally among those who spit in the back.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 2 November 2020 18: 59
    In fact, both Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey are consumables in grates between the Russian Federation and the World Bank. And in this game, Erdogan ran out of administrative and economic resources.
    I advise you to watch this video. Here, in the first half, the scheme of the game around Karabakh is explained.